Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

Kermit.de.frog

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Ok Swedens death rate is far from rampant, twice Irelands death rate with twice the population.
Thats with kids in school and none of the restrictive policies Ireland implemented

Sweden may be happy with 100+ deaths per day in perpetuity. If they think that's acceptable then i'm not going to argue.

They risk economic hazard because countries that have suppressed the virus will not be opening the doors to such a liability. Particularly after all the pain they have gone through to get there.

There are consequences either way is my point.

Beasty

Another reminder. A number of posters have already been banned from posting in this thread again after ignoring my earlier warning (repeated in the OP). If you cannot be civil to one another you will follow them

Any questions PM me - do not respond to this post in thread

alwald

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Ok Swedens death rate is far from rampant, twice Irelands death rate with twice the population.
Thats with kids in school and none of the restrictive policies Ireland implemented

Is that all what you are able to analyse? are you also looking at the testing per 1M? deaths reported in nursing homes and a whole lot of other figures?

Edit: You do know that they have restrictions in place: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden-stockholm/sweden-to-shut-bars-and-restaurants-that-ignore-coronavirus-restrictions-idUSKCN2262AX
This is just one article out of many

FintanMcluskey

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Sweden may be happy with 100+ deaths per day in perpetuity. If they think that's acceptable then i'm not going to argue.

They risk economic hazard because countries that have suppressed the virus will not be opening the doors to such a liability. Particularly after all the pain they have gone through to get there.

There are consequences either way is my point.

I honestly dont follow. They are on course for similar deaths for Ireland without catastrophic health and economic side effects due to the restrictions.

Exactly what point are you making here

lord quackinton

NewRed2 wrote: »

Elitism? Do you do stand-up comedy?
Is it elitist for parents to want their kids to be able to play in playgrounds? For the self employed to go back to work before they have no work to go back to and no way of supporting their families?
Elitist for cancer patients to return to normal treatment?
Elitist for kids to see their grandparents, couples to see each other again?
That not elitist, that's essential normal human stuff we're talking about here.
And for what? To delay the spread of a virus. Let's be clear here, it aint going away, it will still be here in 3 months, 6 months, 9 months, so all the damage you're doing to to people's families, lives, livelihoods, mental health, etc needs to be taken into account, not just dismissed as elitism.
The irony really is that the "humanity" you mention is all around us in so many forms and concerns and its been evident in all we have done for the past 2 months as well, but you can't see it and you just dismiss it and throw out a phrase like elitism.
It would be great to get your opinion if you were self-employed with a couple of kids and your business was on the line here and at the same time you were stuck at home bricking yourself about how you're going to support your family and all the while you're trying to find ways to entertain the same kids that you might no longer be able to support. Are you in that position? I doubt it going on the crap you continually post.

I think you need to read my post again
Actually read any of my posts

FintanMcluskey

alwald wrote: »

Is that all what you are able to analyse? are you also looking at the testing per 1M? deaths reported in nursing homes and a whole lot of other figures?

Well what else is there to analyse after death rate? .

It actually seems that some people believe a lockdown must be implemented at all costs or its a failure in approach. Its bizzare to be honest

retro:electro

The comments under Simon Harris’ recent is Instagram posts are enlightening. Post after post accusing him of making it look as though people aren’t presenting with issues when the actual reality is most services are cancelled so people presenting have nowhere to be referred to. People who are on borrowed time and are desperate for treatment. People whose cancer won’t wait until this crisis sorts itself out, who need intervention and who need it now.

This time next year and for the remaining years to come, himself and Holohan should be made have a prime time spot before the news to address the numbers of those who lost their lives as a result of being collateral damage. I’ve seen first hand how delaying treatment for weeks or months is severely detrimental to someone’s prognosis. People are going to die because of these decisions. I’m actually sick at the thoughts of what’s occurring.

MrDavid1976

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Sweden may be happy with 100+ deaths per day in perpetuity. If they think that's acceptable then i'm not going to argue.

They risk economic hazard because countries that have suppressed the virus will not be opening the doors to such a liability. Particularly after all the pain they have gone through to get there.

There are consequences either way is my point.

I don’t understand - in terms of mortality rates (RIP) Sweden and Ireland are pretty much aligned and indeed are very similar in terms of nursing homes where they have at least admitted they got it wrong. They are also of the view that they will be better prepared for the second wave (if it comes) as there is a greater degree of immunity in society.

I don’t think we have a big stick to beat Sweden with and it is too early to say which strategy was better. Although I think culturally we needed the lock down.

Kermit.de.frog

niallo27 wrote: »

Can you least admit it should be a lot worse in Sweden, it wont kill you.

It's not exactly good in Sweden and it may be a lot worse yet in the coming weeks!

Trying to compare countries as diverse from Ireland doesn't strike me as a good comparison.

Our best comparison is with the UK on a per capita basis.

I said in the other thread the UK is the biggest risk to us being able to come out of this sooner.

MrDavid1976

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It's not exactly good in Sweden and it may be a lot worse yet in the coming weeks!

Trying to compare countries as diverse from Ireland doesn't strike me as a good comparison.

Our best comparison is with the UK on a per capita basis.

I said in the other thread the UK is the biggest risk to us being able to come out of this sooner.

I agree with your final point but why should we be compared with the U.K.? They have a more dense population and they are more dependent on public transport in their urban centres. I think they also have an older population but have not verified that. I don’t think it is as comparable as some may say.

Kermit.de.frog

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

I honestly dont follow. They are on course for similar deaths for Ireland without catastrophic health and economic side effects due to the restrictions.

Exactly what point are you making here

They are not on course for similar deaths.

They are well passed Ireland on per million toll and are not slowing down.

Ireland is 296 deaths per million. Sweden is currently 319.

They are already passed us and that gap is only going to grow.

FintanMcluskey

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It's not exactly good in Sweden and it may be a lot worse yet in the coming weeks!

Trying to compare countries as diverse from Ireland doesn't strike me as a good comparison.

Our best comparison is with the UK on a per capita basis.

I said in the other thread the UK is the biggest risk to us being able to come out of this sooner.

Why are you suggesting Sweden might get worse? It may well get better.

The UK is much more densely populated than Ireland, even Birmingham is more populated than Dublin its not a direct comparison

Speakerboxx

Stheno wrote: »

He said yesterday he is confident we are where we need to be to ease restrictions on the 18th

Do none of you watch the daily briefing?

Hey Mary. Being confident and actually doing it are two seperate things.

Kermit.de.frog

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

I agree with your final point but why should we be compared with the U.K.? They have a more dense population and they are more dependent on public transport in their urban centres. I think they also have an older population but have not verified that. I don’t think it is as comparable as some may say.

They have similar climate and cultural characteristics to us.

Density is a difference in parts of England but I still think it's the best comparison for us.

EDIT: And of course trade links!

FintanMcluskey

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

They are not on course for similar deaths.

They are well passed Ireland on per million toll and are not slowing down.

Ireland is 296 deaths per million. Sweden is currently 319.

They are already passed us and that gap is only going to grow.

Seriously, the difference is death rate is pedantic.

For a country with 2m people over 65 Sweden is doing fantastic compared to Ireland

niallo27

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It's not exactly good in Sweden and it may be a lot worse yet in the coming weeks!

Trying to compare countries as diverse from Ireland doesn't strike me as a good comparison.

Our best comparison is with the UK on a per capita basis.

I said in the other thread the UK is the biggest risk to us being able to come out of this sooner.

Ok but is it not room for optimism that sweden has not been overwhelmed despite how diverse they are to us, despite having far less icu beds to us.

castletownman

Just after watching the Darkest Hour.

Great film, but I think if Leo et al were transported into that era, we'd all be speaking German right now.

FintanMcluskey

alwald wrote: »

What's bizarre is that you have to mention the word "lockdown" meanwhile it wasn't part of the conversation...and it's worrying that you don't look at any other figure than death...ChelseaRentBoy was right not to bother debating with you based on your previous posts.

Is this the sum total of your contribution?
Using another poster to gang up on others?

MrDavid1976

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Ok but what suggests Ireland's restrictions were necessary?

I think they were necessary to protect employers and employees. Sweden has very naturally socially distanced with a Will behind it. I am not sure we could have done that.

I also think we will need some teeth in terms of enforcing the new normal (Sweden has this).

Just to be clear I think it is more time that we ease restrictions at a faster pace.

CruelSummer

ziggyman17 wrote: »

Maybe you should run for government, you seem to have all the answers ...

I’m not sure if this is sarcasm or not but I just hope and pray there are people in government on top of the litany or issues that are surfacing on a daily basis.
Take for instance Foreign Affairs: if Simon Coveney is negotiating government formation talks - I really hope the Dept of Foreign Affairs are actively pursuing the international travel issues that need to be sorted, etc.
How can the government here look at our European neighbours and not follow a more realistic re-opening timetable?
It seems Ireland is absent from new travel arrangements being formulated also and is not at the races internationally at the moment unfortunately.

Cork Boy 53

Fann Linn wrote: »

Why? What will happen?

Bar a lot of grumbling on social media nothing at all.

FintanMcluskey

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

I think they were necessary to protect employers and employees. Sweden has very naturally socially distanced with a Will behind it. I am not sure we could have done that.

I also think we will need some teeth in terms of enforcing the new normal (Sweden has this).

Just to be clear I think it is more time that we ease restrictions at a faster pace.

But what about schools?

To be honest I dont believe Ireland is far behind Sweden in citizen discipline, we are more aligned to the Scandic countries than Italy and Spain in culture.

Kermit.de.frog

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Seriously, the difference is death rate is pedantic.

For a country with 2m people over 65 Sweden is doing fantastic compared to Ireland

Sweden will be far passed that by the next Friday.

Unless you think our death rate is going to soar we won't be keeping up.

Just to stay still we'd need between 35 and 50 deaths per day.

MrDavid1976

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

But what about schools?

To be honest I dont believe Ireland is far behind Sweden in citizen discipline, we are more aligned to the Scandic countries than Italy and Spain in culture.

I think you will find that our views are not a millions miles away from each other. There was a massive uncertainty in March. Decisions were made in an emergency situation and caution was needed. I think on balance the direction of our numbers has shown that on balance our polices and decisions at that time were probably the right ones.

However, we know more now. The curve has flattened and I believe more damage will be done if we do not ease things a little and at a faster pace while ensuring that the most vulnerable are protected.

MrDavid1976

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Sweden will be far passed that by the next Friday.

Unless you think our death rate is going to soar we won't be keeping up.

What is this information you have on Sweden over the next week?

fisgon

easypazz wrote: »

We didnt even get a first wave. Damp squib.

This is a classic argument used all over the world now against restrictions - "look, we told you it wasn't that bad".

You seem to be saying that the deaths of nearly 1500 people is a drop in the ocean and not worth worrying about. Even if that were true, it is only that number BECAUSE WE LOCKED DOWN. The numbers were kept from being catastrophic because of the measures taken; the effect of not doing anything would have been much much greater.

Tell me how

easypazz wrote: »

We didnt even get a first wave. Damp squib.

FFS.
Indication that very serious event may happen.
Government reacts to mitigate against it.
Mitigation helps to ensure that it wasn't as serious as it could have been.
People complain that mitigation wasn't necessary.

imfml

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Ok but what suggests Ireland's restrictions were necessary?

Italy

Kermit.de.frog

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

What is this information you have on Sweden over the next week?

The death rate has been consistent for 3 weeks (including weekend lulls in reporting). No evidence that's changing in the short term that I can see.

FintanMcluskey

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Sweden will be far passed that by the next Friday.

Unless you think our death rate is going to soar we won't be keeping up.

Sweden would be on course for 3 times Irelands death rate with severe restrictions due to population indicators. 2m over 65 vs 650k over 65. The over 65 population is the only significant data in analysing the effect if Covid.

So Sweden has both saved its economy and protected its children (perhaps its most venerable) and by now I would of been expecting to see perhaps 200k dead in Sweden, applying the models used to justify Ireland’s restrictive approach.