Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

Ginger n Lemon

A lot of people here seem to be confused about Sweden - so wont go off topic of Ireland restrictions for too long BUT

Below is Sweden's number of deaths every year for full picture.

2019: 89k

2018: 92k

2017: 92k

2016: 91k

2015: 91k

Covid so far? 3k.

You must realise that a lot of "covid deaths" would happen anyway. As difficult as it is to accept. Person who survived covid in April will die off flu in October.

Take Sweden out of discussion altogether. We made a big mess with restrictions and lockdown madness and this is what this thread is about.

Sweden have done FAR better than us. They arent locking up for 5 months + dreading "2nd wave".

Kermit.de.frog

imfml wrote: »

Italy

New York, Iran, South Korea, Belgium, Spain, Brazil

FintanMcluskey

imfml wrote: »

Italy

In what universe is the population in Italy in anyway similar to Ireland to suggest the restrictions are required in Ireland?

ChelseaRentBoy

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

They are not on course for similar deaths.

They are well passed Ireland on per million toll and are not slowing down.

Ireland is 296 deaths per million. Sweden is currently 319.

They are already passed us and that gap is only going to grow.

Personally i agree with you but i really hope we are wrong and Sweden buck the trend.

I know where the lift the lockdown posters are coming from and i understand their concerns but i just can't get into my head around why they can't accept or fathom why we needed to go into lockdown and why it's so so vitally important to slowly lift restrictions so we don't do even more damage to the economy by putting us back into maybe even more severe measures in a few weeks.

For all the diverse opinions here we all want the same thing.

Ginger n Lemon

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

New York, Iran, South Korea, Belgium, Spain, Brazil

Unless you start quoting total deaths in those places in 2019 then I dont know why you are talking about those countries.

Over 100,000 people die in New york every year. 20k died off covid in 2020. What are we talking about?

fisgon

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Due to the fact Sweden has not seen catastrophic death rates or ICU rates, you are going to have to work hard to convince me otherwise that the lockdown here has had any effect

You're saying that the lockdown has had no effect? And apart from just wanting to believe this, what evidence do you have for that statement? I would suspect, none.

At one stage we were getting 5, 6, 700 new cases a day. Now, six weeks in, it is down to between 100 and 200, and that is with more testing. The same has happened in every country that has closed down.

But of course, that reduction is down to prayer, or magic, or the tooth fairy, nothing to do with the lockdown, of course.

MrDavid1976

ChelseaRentBoy wrote: »

Personally i agree with you but i really hope we are wrong and Sweden buck the trend.

I know where the lift the lockdown posters are coming from and i understand their concerns but i just can't get into my head around why they can't accept or fathom why we needed to go into lockdown and why it's so so vitally important to slowly lift restrictions so we don't do even more damage to the economy by putting us back into maybe even more severe measures in a few weeks.

For all the diverse opinions here we all want the same thing.

I think we all do want the same thing. The lockdown was right but the timing is the easing of restrictions is also hugely important for broader social/economic reasons.

MrDavid1976

ChelseaRentBoy wrote: »

Personally i agree with you but i really hope we are wrong and Sweden buck the trend.

I know where the lift the lockdown posters are coming from and i understand their concerns but i just can't get into my head around why they can't accept or fathom why we needed to go into lockdown and why it's so so vitally important to slowly lift restrictions so we don't do even more damage to the economy by putting us back into maybe even more severe measures in a few weeks.

For all the diverse opinions here we all want the same thing.

I think we all do want the same thing. The lockdown was right but the timing is the easing of restrictions is also hugely important for broader social/economic reasons.

NewRed2

ChelseaRentBoy wrote: »

For all the diverse opinions here we all want the same thing.

Mad as this sounds, I'm not sure we do.

FintanMcluskey

fisgon wrote: »

You're saying that the lockdown has had no effect? And apart from just wanting to believe this, what evidence do you have for that statement? I would suspect, none.

At one stage we were getting 5, 6, 700 new cases a day. Now, six weeks in, it is down to between 100 and 200, and that is with more testing. The same has happened in every country that has closed down.

But of course, that reduction is down to prayer, or magic, or the tooth fairy, nothing to do with the lockdown, of course.

Thats all on assumption that the first positive test was the very first case present.

Death rate and ICU is the metric to measure.

Why has Swedens metric not skyrocketed above 100k plus by now?

FintanMcluskey

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

I think we all do want the same thing. The lockdown was right but the timing is the easing of restrictions is also hugely important for broader social/economic reasons.

Yes. And even the 18th is too restrictive. We should be alinged with Italy or Gemany. Some of the proposals are economic suicide but whats been seen recently suggests they may only get extended on May 18th

castletownman

castletownman wrote: »

Just after watching the Darkest Hour.

Great film, but I think if Leo et al were transported into that era, we'd all be speaking German right now.

As opposed to de Valera? Or do you mean if he was UK prime minister instead of Churchill, the man who 'masterminded' Galliopli? Or maybe you have no real grasp of history at all?

MrDavid1976

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Yes. And even the 18th is too restrictive. We should be alinged with Italy or Gemany. Some of the proposals are economic suicide but whats been seen recently suggests they may only get extended on May 18th

Which will definitely be economic suicide and extremely worrying. I don’t think people realise the damage this will cause and the same people will be wondering why we have 20% unemployment, airline failure, construction sites idle, their local pub closed, MNE’s out of here as we have become a bureaucratic nightmare etc etc. The medics will naturally be cautious but it is government who need to make the decisions taking into account the broader picture.

Cork Boy 53

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Yes. And even the 18th is too restrictive. We should be alinged with Italy or Gemany. Some of the proposals are economic suicide but whats been seen recently suggests they may only get extended on May 18th

What is your evidence for this?

Ginger n Lemon

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The death rate has been consistent for 3 weeks (including weekend lulls in reporting). No evidence that's changing in the short term that I can see.

It wont change. People who would die off cancer or old age in Sweden are dying with "covid 19" on death certificates. Numbers of 100 deaths in Sweden, 150 deaths in Sweden per day is not a catastrophe

Per day, on average in 2019 they had 247 people die. Every day for 365 days a year.

Ireland had 85 people die per day in 2019. Today we had a report showing "18 covid deaths".

18 is not even 25% of 85......... I am unsure why is this even on RTE? What is justification for ruining our economy? Its sad people are dying yes, but we are putting country into poverty through our actions (not covid19 actions)

FintanMcluskey

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

Which will definitely be economic suicide and extremely worrying. I don’t think people realise the damage this will cause and the same people will be wondering why we have 20% unemployment, airline failure, construction sites idle, their local pub closed, MNE’s out of here as we have become a bureaucratic nightmare etc etc. The medics will naturally be cautious but it is government who need to make the decisions taking into account the broader picture.

The "new normal" will have nothing to do with Covid. It will have to do the economic catastrophe from the restrictions

niallo27

ChelseaRentBoy wrote: »

Personally i agree with you but i really hope we are wrong and Sweden buck the trend.

I know where the lift the lockdown posters are coming from and i understand their concerns but i just can't get into my head around why they can't accept or fathom why we needed to go into lockdown and why it's so so vitally important to slowly lift restrictions so we don't do even more damage to the economy by putting us back into maybe even more severe measures in a few weeks.

For all the diverse opinions here we all want the same thing.

It's the length of the restrictions that people find issue with not the actual restrictions. I do not understand why we are so different to other European countries or parts of the US. Its perfectly responsible for us to ask these questions.

Kermit.de.frog

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Unless you start quoting total deaths in those places in 2019 then I dont know why you are talking about those countries.

Over 100,000 people die in New york every year. 20k died off covid in 2020. What are we talking about?

Again you don't seem to understand the nature of the problem (and it's 27k dead in New York so far incidentally)

The problem is the overwhelming of the health system which requires measures to be put in place immediately to prevent catastrophe.







Italy were caught out. New York, as above, was able to quickly get the measures in place to prevent a complete overwhelming.

If you don't put the measures in place it's a disaster and the coffins pile up (like in Ecuador or Brazil or Lombardy).

It's not a choice. The authorities have to act.

Jinglejangle69

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

The "new normal" will have nothing to do with Covid. It will have to do the economic catastrophe from the restrictions

How much you been paid?

Go on tell us:)

NewRed2

SusieBlue wrote: »

What an absolutely bizarre reaction, of course there are more important things going on in the world than one persons wedding, I never said otherwise And I never said it was a main concern either.

A few people asked what would happen with weddings in the aftermath of restrictions being lifted and I posted the above because I was in the know. That’s all. Not because I think it’s a pressing concern that all restrictions need to be lifted to accommodate.

And it may be ‘rubbish’ to you but for a lot of couples they have spent a lot of money & time planning for their big day and the extreme over cautious social distancing measures are causing them a lot of concern.
As well as that, the numerous cancellations & postponings is going to have a massive negative effect on the hotel industry.
The lost revenue is going to be a lot to take after being shut for half the year.

Weddings have to get postponed. Fairly simple. If you still want to get married you can still do it, just not the way you hoped.
Or you just knock it back a wee while til this blows over.
It's fairly simple.
I don't see the problem here, there's a lot more at stake than people getting hitched, so just do it at a later date or be a bit creative and do it as planned in terms of date but suffer the inconvenience of the planning.
I think all our lives have been put on hold so if a wedding gets postponed by a few months then it's in keeping with everything else, c'est la vie.
I saw a funeral at our local church a few days ago. So many people were standing around watching, not many wearing black, no idea how many were mourning or just there to watch. Or how many wanted to go into the church grounds and worried they would exceed the limit.
You cant postpone that. You can postpone a wedding.

FintanMcluskey

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

What is your evidence for this?

On the build up to May 5th, people were told the plan was to reduce RO to below 1 and prevent ICU being overwhelmed. The discipline of the Irish people for the previous 6 weeks smashed this target.

Then Tony moved the goalposts. To goal posts with no metrics stating May 18th hardware July 20th Barbers etc.

Now coupled with cancelled something scheduled for the end of July for people aged 17-18 who are in no danger whatsoever, I have no confidence anything will change in Ireland until a government is formed and the 3 in charge can pass on the blame, which wont happen until late June

SusieBlue

NewRed2 wrote: »

Weddings have to get postponed. Fairly simple. If you still want to get married you can still do it, just not the way you hoped.
Or you just knock it back a wee while til this blows over.
It's fairly simple.
I don't see the problem here, there's a lot more at stake than people getting hitched, so just do it at a later date or be a bit creative and do it as planned in terms of date but suffer the inconvenience of the planning.
I think all our lives have been put on hold so if a wedding gets postponed by a few months then it's in keeping with everything else, c'est la vie.

And again, I never argued otherwise, in fact I made a point of saying (twice) that weddings aren’t the most important thing and that I wasn’t advocating for restrictions to be lifted to accommodate them.

So your little holier than thou lecture is completely misdirected and totally unwarranted.

Ginger n Lemon

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Again you don't seem to understand the nature of the problem (and it's 27k dead in New York so far incidentally)

The problem is the overwhelming of the health system which requires measures to be put in place immediately to prevent catastrophe.



Italy were caught out. New York, as above, was able to quickly get the measures in place to prevent a complete overwhelming.

If you don't put the measures in place it's a disaster and the coffins pile up (like in Ecuador or Brazil or Lombardy).

It's not a choice. The authorities have to act.

Coffins pile up?

Did 1 million die in Brazil + Lombardy + Ecuador? Did 100,000?

These 3 places have population of over 220,000,000 . Even if 100,000 died its not even 0.04%..............

Back to Ireland, 0.04% too? 0.02%? 28% unemployment. does this really add up to you?

lettuce97

Has Tony Holohan ever been asked by a reporter if he factors in anything other than medical considerations (e.g. economy) into his decision making and recommendations? If he doesn't, there's a big question as to whether these were/are being factored in at all - which is pretty terrifying...

FintanMcluskey

lettuce97 wrote: »

Has Tony Holohan ever been asked by a reporter if he factors in anything other than medical considerations (e.g. economy) into his decision making and recommendations? If he doesn't, there's a big question as to whether these were/are being factored in at all - which is pretty terrifying...

Its not. Debate is not happening and won't until a government is formed

Kermit.de.frog

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Coffins pile up?

Did 1 million die in Brazil + Lombardy + Ecuador? Did 100,000?

These 3 places have population of over 220,000,000 . Even if 100,000 died its not even 0.04%..............

Back to Ireland, 0.04% too? 0.02%? 28% unemployment. does this really add up to you?

Urgh

I'll give it one more go.

What is it you fail to understand about this curve? (The shelter-in-place orders (the lock-down) commenced on March 22nd)



What happens if the countermeasures are not put in place?

NewRed2

SusieBlue wrote: »

And again, I never argued otherwise, in fact I made a point of saying (twice) that weddings aren’t the most important thing and that I wasn’t advocating for restrictions to be lifted to accommodate them.

So your little holier than thou lecture is completely misdirected and totally unwarranted.

I'm not looking to lecture anyone Susie. And if you look back at your post and mine it would be a landslide victory for you in terms of thanks and stuff. So I'm not trying to win any brownies here or be "holier than thou".
It's a forum about opinions and I gave mine, weddings should be bottom of the list right now imo.
But equally your opinion counts as much as mine and I didn't mean to offend you.

titan18

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Sweden would be on course for 3 times Irelands death rate with severe restrictions due to population indicators. 2m over 65 vs 650k over 65. The over 65 population is the only significant data in analysing the effect if Covid.

So Sweden has both saved its economy and protected its children (perhaps its most venerable) and by now I would of been expecting to see perhaps 200k dead in Sweden, applying the models used to justify Ireland’s restrictive approach.

Sweden have also tested 3 times less than us per million so maybe they don't know their case numbers as accurately as ours.

JL555

stephenjmcd wrote: »

For most businesses its reopen in some way now or possibly never reopen.

That's a very good point you make, a lot of us are still working, maybe from home. I work for a large organisation and have not been impacted financially at all, and am unlikely to be.
But I do know a lot of people who worked in the hospitality industry and their livelihoods are gone, some are telling me that they will never recover, they have families, kids etc, and now face a very uncertain and scary future, it's really sad and I thank God I decided to stay put a couple of years ago when I was going to go out on my own. I cannot imagine what stress this is causing some people. Some distancing measures being proposed for re-opening will just not work for some small businesses. There's hard times ahead for a lot of people, but at some point hopefully things will work out for them.

Arghus

lettuce97 wrote: »

Has Tony Holohan ever been asked by a reporter if he factors in anything other than medical considerations (e.g. economy) into his decision making and recommendations? If he doesn't, there's a big question as to whether these were/are being factored in at all - which is pretty terrifying...

He doesn't get asked really about that. He's the CMO, would the Minister for Finance get asked about how best to fight the virus?

But there's a misconception here that what Tony Holohan says determines everything. He's the CMO, but ultimately just one voice in NPHET, which contains a lot of other stakeholders.

They present their recommendations to government, it's really ultimately decided by government what to do after that.