Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

ChelseaRentBoy

Arghus wrote: »

Merkel you say.

You might listen to her so -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22SQVZ4CeXA

As the chancellor states thin ice and some here want to drive across it in a hummer weighed down with lead.

coastwatch

ShineOn7 wrote: »

From what I saw today, the RO will be double what it is today in two weeks time

Bit of sunshine + a nation of alcoholics + the Irish hate being told what to do = a recipe for another spike

Some people and families are already at Phase Four of this, let alone Phase One!


We're a fúcking disaster

This sounds really bad.
What exactly did you see?

FintanMcluskey

Stheno wrote: »

That's not how you c as calculate fatality rates

For the point the original poster had made it was.

It remains the only accurate fatality rate.

Until every person in Ireland is tested every fortnight nothing else is as accurate

FintanMcluskey

titan18 wrote: »

Since not everyone in the population has got it. That's not a good way to calculate it

Its the only accurate way as of now

Arghus

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

You are the one who needs to save face in our internet debate. You are the one who justifies putting 28% of our country into unemployment to prevent a disease that so far has shown to have 0.03% mortality rate in Sweden, 0.03% in Ireland.

1 country without a lockdown. 1 country with a lockdown.

This is absolute madness.

It's only killed that tiny percentage in Ireland because it has only infected a tiny percentage of the population so far. The measures were put in place to try to limit the spread in the population, so that it would only, hopefully, kill as little people as possible.

To say it's got a mortality rate of 0.03 amongst the general population isn't true, because so far only 22000 people have been infected, not the entire population.

If 4. 9 million people were infected and 1400 people were dead as a result, then, yes you could say, definitely, yes, that mortality rate is 0.03%. But that hasn't happened, so that assertion about the mortality rate isn't true. It just isn't. You are wrong in the most basic way.


You'll argue different and probably move the goalposts, but you will still be wrong to say that covid has been shown to have a mortality rate of 0.03%. It hasn't been. The only way that could be true is for the entire population to have been infected and for that to be the final death toll.

AulWan

rob316 wrote: »

I'm not worried or even care about 20 people a day dying and 100 new cases and I'll care less as the numbers fall further. Its human nature

I guess this sums up everything that is wrong with human nature to me.

Apparantly you get more condolences for losing your job, then losing your life (or your mother, father, grandparent).

Ginger n Lemon

Arghus wrote: »

It's only killed that tiny percentage in Ireland because it has only infected a tiny percentage of the population so far. The measures were put in place to try to limit the spread in the population, so that it would only, hopefully, kill as little people as possible.

To say it's got a mortality rate of 0.03 amongst the general population isn't true, because so far only 22000 people have been infected, not the entire population.

If 4. 9 million people were infected and 1400 people were dead as a result, then, yes you could say, definitely, yes, that mortality rate is 0.03%. But that hasn't happened, so that assertion about the mortality rate isn't true. It just isn't. You are wrong in the most basic way.


You'll argue different and probably move the goalposts, but you will still be wrong to say that covid has been shown to have a mortality rate of 0.03%. It hasn't been. The only way that could be true is for the entire population to have been infected and for that to be the final death toll.

I have never moved goal posts. My 2nd name is not Harris or Holohan.

NewRed2

titan18 wrote: »

Since not everyone in the population has got it. That's not a good way to calculate it

What about nursing homes?

The UK don't include them in their figures. We do.

If yo take nursing homes out of the equation in Ireland what do our figures look like?
Also initially when this started we were told the aim was to flatten the curve.
Can we all agree the curve was flattened weeks ago?

So now the goal posts have moved again, can we acknowledge that as fact?

FintanMcluskey

Arghus wrote: »

It's only killed that tiny percentage in Ireland because it has only infected a tiny percentage of the population so far. The measures were put in place to try to limit the spread in the population, so that it would only, hopefully, kill as little people as possible.

To say it's got a mortality rate of 0.03 amongst the general population isn't true, because so far only 22000 people have been infected, not the entire population.

If 4. 9 million people were infected and 1400 people were dead as a result, then, yes you could say, definitely, yes, that mortality rate is 0.03%. But that hasn't happened, so that assertion about the mortality rate isn't true. It just isn't. You are wrong in the most basic way.


You'll argue different and probably move the goalposts, but you will still be wrong to say that covid has been shown to have a mortality rate of 0.03%. It hasn't been. The only way that could be true is for the entire population to have been infected and for that to be the final death toll.

Ok your statement of explicitly only 22000 infected shows a lack of understanding of whats happening.

Only 22000 cases have been detected, some suggestions are that 10 times that number have been infected. We have absolutely not caught every case

Ginger n Lemon

NewRed2 wrote: »

What about nursing homes?

The UK don't include them in their figures. We do.

If yo take nursing homes out of the equation in Ireland what do our figures look like?
Also initially when this started we were told the aim was to flatten the curve.
Can we all agree the curve was flattened weeks ago?

So now the goal posts have moved again, can we acknowledge that as fact?

Curve has been flattened over a week ago.

We are following "WHO delay tactic" as you ll read on covid leaflet you can find in your post. As the name suggests - we are delaying

Arghus

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I have never moved goal posts. My 2nd name is not Harris or Holohan.

Pretty lame to be honest.

FintanMcluskey

NewRed2 wrote: »

What about nursing homes?

The UK don't include them in their figures. We do.

If yo take nursing homes out of the equation in Ireland what do our figures look like?
Also initially when this started we were told the aim was to flatten the curve.
Can we all agree the curve was flattened weeks ago?

So now the goal posts have moved again, can we acknowledge that as fact?

Thank you. Nursing home figures removed, 65 have died in ICU in Ireland?? I have no source for that however.

titan18

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

For the point the original poster had made it was.

It remains the only accurate fatality rate.

Until every person in Ireland is tested every fortnight nothing else is as accurate

The only accurate one is the one that uses actual data, and we have a number of cases and numbers of deaths.

We won't know a proper one until it's all over but that's the best way to calculate it ATM. Obviously, more people have had it than have been tested but that total number is going to be closer to the total cases than the total population.

The overall death rate won't be 5-6% as it currently is but it's going to be higher than 0.03%

FintanMcluskey

AulWan wrote: »

I guess this sums up everything that is wrong with human nature to me.

Apparantly you get more condolences for losing your job, then losing your life (or your mother, father, grandparent).

You are guaranteed death in your life and can adjust accordingly. Not so with job losses

Arghus

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Ok your statement of explicitly only 22000 infected shows a lack of understanding of whats happening.

Only 22000 cases have been detected, some suggestions are that 10 times that number have been infected. We have absolutely not caught every case

Yes, I am aware that 22000 isn't the true number of actual covid cases in the country.

I was using it as an example to show how the previous poster's workings and assertion about mortality rate were wrong.

Multipass

LiquidZeb wrote: »

One thing I'd like to point out though in the table released on Friday detailing all the cases and deaths by age group, the fatality rate amongst all demographics from 0-60 was basically non existent. Obviously it's awful for the families of these people and it's a horrific situation but one thing I found odd was 85+ had the highest rate of cases at circa 2500 despite probably being the smallest demographic group. The only conclusion that leads to is the nursing home are getting shafted.

At some point though the country has to realize thisll go beyond having your nose being bent out of shape for a few months and will inevitably affect your livelihood and the future of your children and grandchildren. It's easy to dismiss people raising this concern as selfish but it's a question that'll have to be addressed.

I've decided, I'm starting a bachelor's part time in September for 3 years. God willing I'll be employed to pay my tuition through that period but after that I'm going to Germany. I don't fancy being here when the ticking time bomb of debt goes off because it's not going to be pretty.

There’s also no way of knowing how many of the 85+ group died directly because of covid, or how many were already dying and got covid. I suspect a lot fall into the latter category.

FintanMcluskey

titan18 wrote: »

The only accurate one is the one that uses actual data, and we have a number of cases and numbers of deaths.

We won't know a proper one until it's all over but that's the best way to calculate it ATM. Obviously, more people have had it than have been tested but that total number is going to be closer to the total cases than the total population.

The overall death rate won't be 5-6% as it currently is but it's going to be higher than 0.03%

But using positive cases is not accurate. Not remotely so.
ICU numbers are the only metric to use. Even the death stats are not accurate as per Tony H

FintanMcluskey

Arghus wrote: »

Yes, I am aware that 22000 isn't the true number of actual covid cases in the country.

I was using it as an example to show how the previous poster's workings and assertion about mortality rate were wrong.

But the mortality rate was not wrong, as of now, the death rate in the overall population was as stated. Thats fact.

Using positive cases is not fact

titan18

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

But using positive cases is not accurate. Not remotely so.
ICU numbers are the only metric to use. Even the death stats are not accurate as per Tony H

In calculating an actual death rate, you'd want to know the milder cases too though, not just those that went into ICU.

FintanMcluskey

titan18 wrote: »

In calculating an actual death rate, you'd want to know the milder cases too though, not just those that went into ICU.

Why would mild cases have anything to do with death rate?

Ginger n Lemon

Arghus wrote: »

Pretty lame to be honest.

I am not sure you are being honest.

Can you honestly say that creating 28% unemployment in the state due to a pandemic that has a mortality rate of 0.03% is sound?

Especially when you consider that Sweden has not even had 10% unemployment, has not gone into lockdown and has had same mortality rate of 0.03%.

Colibri

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/rki-corona-reporduktionsrate-101.html

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.tagesschau.de%2Finland%2Frki-corona-reporduktionsrate-101.html

Germany's COVID-19 reproduction number back up above 1

LiquidZeb

Multipass wrote: »

There’s also no way of knowing how many of the 85+ group died directly because of covid, or how many were already dying and got covid. I suspect a lot fall into the latter category.

I know but it's such an awful thing to say or even think. Something's going horribly wrong in our nursing homes and someone has to answer for it.

Arghus

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

But the mortality rate was not wrong, as of now, the death rate in the overall population was as stated. Thats fact.

Using positive cases is not fact

He did say - A disease that has "so far shown" to have a mortaity rate of 0.03%

Looks to me like that is someone making an argument for the mortality rate.

You're splitting hairs here.

Ginger n Lemon

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

But the mortality rate was not wrong, as of now, the death rate in the overall population was as stated. Thats fact.

Using positive cases is not fact

There are 5 + studies done in 4 different countries showing mortality rate of 0.25% based on 15% of infected population.

Population sampled HAD covid symptoms. Imagine when you take into account asymptomatic people........

Arghus

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I am not sure you are being honest.

Can you honestly say that creating 28% unemployment in the state due to a pandemic that has a mortality rate of 0.03% is sound?

Especially when you consider that Sweden has not even had 10% unemployment, has not gone into lockdown and has had same mortality rate of 0.03%.

Moving the goalposts. I was refuting your maths.

The mortality rate isn't 0.03%

Tenger

ShineOn7 wrote: »

From what I saw today, the RO will be double what it is today in two weeks time

Bit of sunshine + a nation of alcoholics + the Irish hate being told what to do = a recipe for another spike

Some people and families are already at Phase Four of this, let alone Phase One!


We're a fúcking disaster

Wait till Tuesday, to see moronic behaviour.
The anti-vaxxer crowd are trying to organise a protest in Dublin to support Gemma/Johns High Court cases.

Ginger n Lemon

Colibri wrote: »

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/rki-corona-reporduktionsrate-101.html

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.tagesschau.de%2Finland%2Frki-corona-reporduktionsrate-101.html

Germany's COVID-19 reproduction number back up above 1

Good thing they have ICU and hospital beds.

So do we. But we dont have courage to face the music. yet. Gotta wait until exchequer runs out of €€€

titan18

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Why would mild cases have anything to do with death rate?

Because the death rate is the amount of people who die who've had the disease.

titan18

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

There are 5 + studies done in 4 different countries showing mortality rate of 0.25% based on 15% of infected population.

Population sampled HAD covid symptoms. Imagine when you take into account asymptomatic people........

Didn't know the virus will stop spreading once 15% get it