Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

Tenger

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Why would mild cases have anything to do with death rate?

Ah bless. He doesnt understand.....


100 confirmed cases, 10 dead = 10% death rate.
But what if you have mild symptoms which can be passd off as "a cold" or a "bad dose".
That means you actually had 1000 cases but didnt detect 900 of them........10 dead = 1% death rate.

Maths is cool

There is a reason the statistic states "confirmed cases". Since February the medics have been aware that they can only count cases that have tested positive and that the infection rate is unknown without repeat mass testing. No medical experts think that the numbers are 100% accurate. The assuption is that there is double the current number of confirmed cases.

Colibri

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Good thing they have ICU and hospital beds.

So do we. But we dont have courage to face the music. yet. Gotta wait until exchequer runs out of €€€

I read this thread up until this page and I must say, I appreciate the discussion (genuinely).

I'm anti-lockdown but I don't feel we're ready to lift it, because we're woefully underprepared when it comes to testing, precautions, etc.

Methinks the 18th of May being the date is that they're desperately trying to get close to the amount of tests processed they said they'd deliver.

Stheno

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

There are 5 + studies done in 4 different countries showing mortality rate of 0.25% based on 15% of infected population.

Population sampled HAD covid symptoms. Imagine when you take into account asymptomatic people........

Are you talking about the antibody studies?

Ginger n Lemon

titan18 wrote: »

Didn't know the virus will stop spreading once 15% get it

It hasnt. But its a bit difficult to test over 15% of population. Of any country or region.

These are in the works my friend, watch out for 0.03%.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/21/839594202/germany-is-conducting-nationwide-covid-19-antibody-testing?t=1589066330094

Watch out. The results of Germany's antibodies tests will show true mortality of the deadly pandemic Covid19.

PS it will not be 6%. It will not even be 0.6%......

Ginger n Lemon

Stheno wrote: »

Are you talking about the antibody studies?

Correct.

Anything else and covid seems to have 5%+ mortality. Something both of us dont agree on.

Really, if a disease had 2% mortality we would see Irish army forces on the street telling us to stay at home. Thats DEADLY.

coastwatch

ShineOn7 wrote: »

From what I saw today, the RO will be double what it is today in two weeks time

Bit of sunshine + a nation of alcoholics + the Irish hate being told what to do = a recipe for another spike

Some people and families are already at Phase Four of this, let alone Phase One!


We're a fúcking disaster

That sounds really bad.
What exactly did you see?

Stheno

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

It hasnt. But its a bit difficult to test over 15% of population. Of any country or region.

These are in the works my friend, watch out for 0.03%.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/21/839594202/germany-is-conducting-nationwide-covid-19-antibody-testing?t=1589066330094

Watch out. The results of Germany's antibodies tests will show true mortality of the deadly pandemic Covid19.

PS it will not be 6%. It will not even be 0.6%......

Ah you were talking about antibody tests

Asymptomatic people are of no real issue with antibody testing, antibody testing checks who in the population had the virus whether symptomatic or not

It would behoves you to perhaps do.some reading and educate yourself rather than spouting some of the blatantly incorrect information you've posted here tbh

Penfailed

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

A police state??

No. Stop it. It's tiresome. Look up the definition of a police state. It's a million miles away from where we are.

Ginger n Lemon

Stheno wrote: »

Ah you were talking about antibody tests

Asymptomatic people are of no real issue with antibody testing, antibody testing checks who in the population had the virus whether symptomatic or not

It would behoves you to perhaps do.some reading and educate yourself rather than spouting some of the blatantly incorrect information you've posted here tbh

I've educated myself on this topic for months as you can appreciate, I am not exactly at the pub.

Country wide mortality = 0.03%. With or without lockdown as Ireland & Sweden have shown.

Antibodies test morality rate of 0.24%(Germany study) - 0.8%. (0.8% is in New York, where a lot of people are obese unfortunately)

Do I need further education? Am I a million miles off with regards to mortality of this pandemic disease? Would you like links to antibodies testing?

I am not diminishing the importance or severity of this disease for fun btw, just showing that creating 28% state wide unemployment for something that has less than 0.8% mortality is not logical or correct.

Penfailed

https://www.corkbeo.ie/culture/family-kids/well-known-cork-musician-tells-18206713

Here's an account from an Irishman in Sweden.

FintanMcluskey

Tenger wrote: »

Ah bless. He doesnt understand.....


100 confirmed cases, 10 dead = 10% death rate.
But what if you have mild symptoms which can be passd off as "a cold" or a "bad dose".
That means you actually had 1000 cases but didnt detect 900 of them........10 dead = 1% death rate.

Maths is cool

There is a reason the statistic states "confirmed cases". Since February the medics have been aware that they can only count cases that have tested positive and that the infection rate is unknown without repeat mass testing. No medical experts think that the numbers are 100% accurate. The assuption is that there is double the current number of confirmed cases.

I get that. So despite your patronising rhetoric, the other poster had suggested the death rate was higher than suspected. I didnt explicitly say how had death rate risen with mild cases, my bad. Thanks for being patronising however

Ginger n Lemon

Penfailed wrote: »

https://www.corkbeo.ie/culture/family-kids/well-known-cork-musician-tells-18206713

Here's an account from an Irishman in Sweden.

I am afraid the thread is about Ireland lifting restrictions. Not about Irish men abroad.

Whats your opinion of 5 months lockdown for pubs, shopping centres, gyms? Reasonable or a bit too much?

Could we follow other EU countries that seem to be opening 2 - 3 times quicker than our country?

FintanMcluskey

Stheno wrote: »

Ah you were talking about antibody tests

Asymptomatic people are of no real issue with antibody testing, antibody testing checks who in the population had the virus whether symptomatic or not

What exactly are you saying here?

Arghus

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I've educated myself on this topic for months as you can appreciate, I am not exactly at the pub.

Country wide mortality = 0.03%. With or without lockdown as Ireland & Sweden have shown.

Antibodies test morality rate of 0.24%(Germany study) - 0.8%. (0.8% is in New York, where a lot of people are obese unfortunately)

Do I need further education? Am I a million miles off with regards to mortality of this pandemic disease? Would you like links to antibodies testing?

I am not diminishing the importance or severity of this disease for fun btw, just showing that creating 28% state wide unemployment for something that has less than 0.8% mortality is not logical or correct.

I'd like to see the links if you can supply them.

You are still wrong about the mortality rate BTW.

Arghus

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I am afraid the thread is about Ireland lifting restrictions. Not about Irish men abroad.

Whats your opinion of 5 months lockdown for pubs, shopping centres, gyms? Reasonable or a bit too much?

Could we follow other EU countries that seem to be opening 2 - 3 times quicker than our country?

Ah, stop. You bring Sweden into the debate constantly, more than anyone.

NewRed2

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I am not sure you are being honest.

Can you honestly say that creating 28% unemployment in the state due to a pandemic that has a mortality rate of 0.03% is sound?

Especially when you consider that Sweden has not even had 10% unemployment, has not gone into lockdown and has had same mortality rate of 0.03%.

I'll hold my hands up here, I don't know much about Sweden or other nations handling of all this.
I'm aware that Sweden didn't do the lockdown the way we did, but aside from that I don't have much knowledge the way the rest of yee talk about figures.

What I do know is that while people argue the toss about a few numbers there are real people ****ting themselves, there are self-employed people who only have one way of supporting themselves, family businesses that could go to the wall here and leave us on the dole and theres no way back for us after that.
So this **** is real for us, this is the difference between being able to support our kids or not. It's fine to say lives are at stake for our 80 year olds but I have two 4 year olds.
It looks likely that I'll lose my business over this. So who can make that up to them? Who supports them?
All because we're protecting the elderly. And what about the kids mental health? I had to pick my daughter up off the pavement the other day because she was hoping she could play with the kids next door. That's her only social outlet now but even then its awkward coz technically shes not allowed play with them.
This is a mess now and we stuck with the rules for a wee while but this lockdown crap has gone on too long and Taoiseach Holohan is miles out of touch with the rest of us. Nobody can live like this, it's a fookin virus, get on with it, live with it, adjust and adapt. But we've surrendered.

Ginger n Lemon

Arghus wrote: »

I'd like to see the links if you can supply them.

You are still wrong about the mortality rate BTW.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/covid-antibody-test-in-german-town-shows-15-per-cent-infection-rate-0-4pc-death-rate

"Data from coronavirus deaths in Gangelt suggests an infection mortality rate of 0.37 per cent"

https://www.livescience.com/covid-antibody-test-results-new-york-test.html

"Cuomo said. New York is reporting 15,500 COVID-19 deaths, and if 2.7 million people were infected, that would mean the death rate would be 0.5%, Cuomo said."

:pac:

Cork Boy 53

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Forget about it. Some are uneducated beyond help.

You ll see comparison of US deaths vs Ireland's deaths soon. Look at how much better we are than US...........

sarcasm. sarcasm everywhere.

In the other news

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/david-mcwilliams-when-will-the-money-run-out-in-the-covid-19-pandemic-1.4248403?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fopinion%2Fdavid-mcwilliams-when-will-the-money-run-out-in-the-covid-19-pandemic-1.4248403

It will run out very soon. Individual enjoying sun in his back garden will be here liking our posts in no time Fintan.

Did you actually bother reading this article you linked to? Because if you had you would see that David McWilliams far from backing up your claim is actually stating the complete opposite. You will have to try harder I`m afraid.

Penfailed

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I am afraid the thread is about Ireland lifting restrictions. Not about Irish men abroad.

Whats your opinion of 5 months lockdown for pubs, shopping centres, gyms? Reasonable or a bit too much?

Could we follow other EU countries that seem to be opening 2 - 3 times quicker than our country?

I'm afraid you and Fergus are constantly talking about Sweden so it's completely relevant to get the opinion of someone from Ireland who actually lives there. It's first hand information.

My opinion about pubs and gyms locked down for five months - reasonable. Shopping centres - a bit too much.

Yes, we could follow other EU countries. We're not though.

Ginger n Lemon

NewRed2 wrote: »

I'll hold my hands up here, I don't know much about Sweden or other nations handling of all this.
I'm aware that Sweden didn't do the lockdown the way we did, but aside from that I don't have much knowledge the way the rest of yee talk about figures.

What I do know is that while people argue the toss about a few numbers there are real people ****ting themselves, there are self-employed people who only have one way of supporting themselves, family businesses that could go to the wall here and leave us on the dole and theres no way back for us after that.
So this **** is real for us, this is the difference between being able to support our kids or not. It's fine to say lives are at stake for our 80 year olds but I have two 4 year olds.
It looks likely that I'll lose my business over this. So who can make that up to them? Who supports them?
All because we're protecting the elderly. And what about the kids mental health? I had to pick my daughter up off the pavement the other day because she was hoping she could play with the kids next door. That's her only social outlet now but even then its awkward coz technically shes not allowed play with them.
This is a mess now and we stuck with the rules for a wee while but this lockdown crap has gone on too long and Taoiseach Holohan is miles out of touch with the rest of us. Nobody can live like this, it's a fookin virus, get on with it, live with it, adjust and adapt. But we've surrendered.

You are correct on all the points you raise. I hope FG or FF or someone from the government buildings brings your post to the attention of our non elected officials.

It truly is baffling how we made so many mistakes so quickly. But its never too late to rectify things.

And I can guarantee you, Swedish model will be applauded for years and decades to come. You have WHO coming out and saying "maybe Swedish model is the best in the long run" for a reason.

Ginger n Lemon

Penfailed wrote: »

I'm afraid you and Fergus are constantly talking about Sweden so it's completely relevant to get the opinion of someone from Ireland who actually lives there. It's first hand information.

My opinion about pubs and gyms locked down for five months - reasonable. Shopping centres - a bit too much.

Yes, we could follow other EU countries. We're not though.

I appreciate your opinion.

Would you clarify whether we could or we should? Its a big difference

As a perspective Belgium had 3 times more deaths per 1 million than Ireland, yet they open up 3 times quicker.

Penfailed

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I appreciate your opinion.

Would you clarify whether we could or we should? Its a big difference

Why did you ask if we could rather than if we should? ...if it's that big a difference?

Ginger n Lemon

Penfailed wrote: »

Why did you ask if we could rather than if we should? ...if it's that big a difference?

No comment.

Its been a productive day.

Biggest eye opener ofcourse

https://www.politico.eu/article/belgium-lifts-its-lockdown-what-is-allowed-and-when/

Spanish Eyes

Hey Ginger, what prompted you to join in May 2020?

I suppose it was looking at the erudition of contributors before you breezed in. lol.

Well you seem to be enjoying yourself, so whatever.

Penfailed

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

No comment.

Its been a productive day.

Biggest eye opener ofcourse

https://www.politico.eu/article/belgium-lifts-its-lockdown-what-is-allowed-and-when/

Belgium eases restrictions two months after they start...and so is Ireland. Your point is?

gozunda

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

When our young generation ask what caused the 2020 recession? The answer will be "medical advice".

There was a "deadly pandemic" with 0.1% mortality rate, rampant. Government couldnt protect nursing homes or elderly and decided to "announce" a nationwide lockdown for 5 months.

That's it. How many died? less than 5,000. 0.1% of 5 million population.

Isnt flu mortality 0.1%? yes it is. yes it is. But covid19 is much more serious than flu because of (insert whatever you want not to feel bad about getting back to 2009 economic "levels")

Much of that has no basis in reality.

I can just as easily claim that when our young generation ask what caused the 2020 recession? The answer will be "Ginger n Lemon"

And no there is no "nationwide lockdown for 5 months". We have restrictions - some of which have been in place eight weeks - with the remainder including our stay at home restriction being in its sixth week. Looking forward we have the removal of the various restrictions up to August of this year. Most other EU countries have also adopted a gradual removal of restrictions

It looks like the UK will following a somewhat similar path as Ireland. This is good for us as we share a land border with them

How many have died due to Covid-19? Today that figure today stands at 1,446. However imo these people do not deserve to be reduced by calculations to a premature "less than 5,000. 0.1% of 5 million population". It remains the final death toll of this outbreak will not be known for some time.

What we do know is that the outbreak todate has resulted in the deaths of 6% of those known to be infected. That figure will change but again the final figures wont be known until the pandemic is officially ended.

As to flu mortality it appears you are making the figures up out of thin air tbh.

So what is the true flu mortality figure in Ireland this year? To paraphrase your comment above - It's not "0.1%."

I believe Arghus and others have already pointed out the error in calculating your mortality rate. But for the sake of argument let's use that methodology. That gives a Flu mortality of 0.002% . As you can see the two figures aren't even close.

And to confirm that statement- yes Covid-19 is currenly much more serious than flu for the simple reason there have been 1,446 deaths due to Covid-19 todate compared to 103 from influenza during the 2019/20 flu season.

Tell me how

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

You are correct on all the points you raise. I hope FG or FF or someone from the government buildings brings your post to the attention of our non elected officials.

It truly is baffling how we made so many mistakes so quickly. But its never too late to rectify things.

And I can guarantee you, Swedish model will be applauded for years and decades to come. You have WHO coming out and saying "maybe Swedish model is the best in the long run" for a reason.

That is by no means a certainty.

According to Forbes

Compared to its Nordic neighbors, Sweden has recorded significantly more deaths. The country’s total to date—2,941—is more than three times the total deaths in Denmark, Finland and Norway combined, even though that combined area has a much bigger population.

Or The Japan Times

When looking at all-cause mortality — which is probably a better gauge of the real level of coronavirus deaths — Sweden has been hit with "very high” excess deaths since the start of the year, according to the European body monitoring these statistics. In Denmark, they’ve been "low.”

wakka12

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

There are 5 + studies done in 4 different countries showing mortality rate of 0.25% based on 15% of infected population.

Population sampled HAD covid symptoms. Imagine when you take into account asymptomatic people........

Antibody testing takes into account asymptomatic people. There are no community tests done that found 15% of a country's population to be currently infected

Kermit.de.frog

Tell me how wrote: »

That is by no means a certainty.

According to Forbes



Or The Japan Times

Will yeh go away with these inconvenient truths :P

Doctor Jimbob

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I am afraid the thread is about Ireland lifting restrictions. Not about Irish men abroad.

Whats your opinion of 5 months lockdown for pubs, shopping centres, gyms? Reasonable or a bit too much?

Could we follow other EU countries that seem to be opening 2 - 3 times quicker than our country?

Plenty of the countries opening quicker either were shut down sooner, had a harsher shutdown, or both.

There was a segment on Ivan's newstalk show yesterday that included an Irish person in Italy speaking about the fact they couldnt leave the house for the past two months. Similar stories from Spain. The people being interviewed were delighted that they were getting to a point more in line with Ireland's restrictions. I'm sure you heard it since you're constantly quoting newstalk.

Your constant attempts to paint Ireland's restrictions as harsher than anywhere else are tiresome and quite frankly utter bollocks.