Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

Arghus

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/covid-antibody-test-in-german-town-shows-15-per-cent-infection-rate-0-4pc-death-rate

"Data from coronavirus deaths in Gangelt suggests an infection mortality rate of 0.37 per cent"

https://www.livescience.com/covid-antibody-test-results-new-york-test.html

"Cuomo said. New York is reporting 15,500 COVID-19 deaths, and if 2.7 million people were infected, that would mean the death rate would be 0.5%, Cuomo said."

:pac:

Thanks for those.

Those are interesting studies, but neither is conclusive in any way.

The German study is interesting, but it is small scale and doesn't answer a lot of other questions, without which you can't really extrapolate figures like mortality rate conclusively, as it says in the article -

Obviously these are all small-scale studies and none of them are deliberate experiments to see how far SARS-CoV-2 will spread if it is allowed to ‘rip through’ a population.

The New York study is similar -

However, that comes with "two big caveats," he said. This data is preliminary and is only a sample of 3,000 people. In addition, the state doesn't count people who died at home — not in a nursing home or hospital — or who were never tested for COVID-19, in their official tally of COVID-19 fatalities.

And further on towards the end of the article it says this - and this is quite important:

....experts previously told Live Science that those numbers are likely to be too high, because the antibody tests used in these surveys had a high false-positive rate, making their prevalence estimates likely very uncertain.

So the data is interesting, but that's it. You can't base your assumptions on it.

And neither is suggesting that the mortality rate is 0.03%. Both suggest it's higher and, in the case of the New York research, dramatically higher.

gozunda

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Seriously, the difference is death rate is pedantic.

For a country with 2m people over 65 Sweden is doing fantastic compared to Ireland

No it's not. Sweden have not been including Nursing home deaths in their mortality figures for Covid-19.

But perhaps more importantly - Sweden has 17,119 active cases of Covid-29 whilst Ireland has 4002 such cases.

Whatever Sweden is doing - it is not 'fantastic' no matter how you look at it ...

Doctor Jimbob

gozunda wrote: »

No it's not. Sweden have not been including Nursing hole deaths in their mortality figures for Covid-19.

But perhaps more importantly - Sweden has 17,119 active cases of Covid-29 whilst Ireland has 4002 such cases.

Whatever Sweden is doing - it is not 'fantastic' no matter how you look at it ...

It's fantastic if you only give a feck about the economy.

Rodin

We should have been much more harsh with restrictions up to this point.

We'd be exiting restrictions more quickly if we had been.

Cork Boy 53

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Plenty of the countries opening quicker either were shut down sooner, had a harsher shutdown, or both.

There was a segment on Ivan's newstalk show yesterday that included an Irish person in Italy speaking about the fact they couldnt leave the house for the past two months. Similar stories from Spain. The people being interviewed were delighted that they were getting to a point more in line with Ireland's restrictions. I'm sure you heard it since you're constantly quoting newstalk.

Your constant attempts to paint Ireland's restrictions as harsher than anywhere else are tiresome and quite frankly utter bollocks.

Not even close to what was implemented in those countries. Anyone who claims that apart from the high risk groups there has been a severe lockdown implemented in Ireland is talking nonsense.

Rodin

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Not even close to what was implemented in those countries. Anyone who claims that apart from the high risk groups there has been a severe lockdown implemented in Ireland is talking nonsense.

Even the lockdown we do have hasn't been taken seriously.

Supposedly mandatory isolation on entering the country but people just don't fill in the form?

Shouldn't be allowed into the country without it.

Arghus

Rodin wrote: »

Even the lockdown we do have hasn't been taken seriously.

Supposedly mandatory isolation on entering the country but people just don't fill in the form?

Shouldn't be allowed into the country without it.

It is a ridiculous situation.

RugbyLad11

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Plenty of the countries opening quicker either were shut down sooner, had a harsher shutdown, or both.

There was a segment on Ivan's newstalk show yesterday that included an Irish person in Italy speaking about the fact they couldnt leave the house for the past two months. Similar stories from Spain. The people being interviewed were delighted that they were getting to a point more in line with Ireland's restrictions. I'm sure you heard it since you're constantly quoting newstalk.

Your constant attempts to paint Ireland's restrictions as harsher than anywhere else are tiresome and quite frankly utter bollocks.

Italy was the worst effected place in the world a few weeks ago so of course their hard restrictions were justified

Kermit.de.frog

RugbyLad11 wrote: »

Italy was the worst effected place in the world a few weeks ago so of course their hard restrictions were justified

How about France and Spain where you need a permit for every trip out of your home?



No permits here.

Kermit.de.frog

Yeh see, only takes one eggshell...

https://twitter.com/hcirePT/status/1259298114524991491

40 new cases reported so far on the back of that.

Gone Drinking

Reading this thread/forum is like listening to the people who call into Adrian Kennedy :pac:

(that should be insulting regardless if you're proven right or wrong in time)

Bit cynical

gozunda wrote: »

No it's not. Sweden have not been including Nursing home deaths in their mortality figures for Covid-19.

But perhaps more importantly - Sweden has 17,119 active cases of Covid-29 whilst Ireland has 4002 such cases.

Whatever Sweden is doing - it is not 'fantastic' no matter how you look at it ...

Sweden added nursing home deaths into their statistics a while back. What they seem to be doing well is not keeping infections down but rather keeping deaths due to those infections down.

Tell me how

niallo27 wrote: »

Your not allowed ask these questions without being called a heartless bastard. I do not why some posters get so wound up by saying this mortality rate is not as high as suggested. Its pretty obvious its not as deadly as first thought.

It's pretty obvious the mitigation which was put in place worked more like.

Tell me how

retro:electro wrote: »

That is the absolute epitome of grim. Bloody hell.

The images from hospitals in Italy and Spain have definitely been forgotten at this point obviously.

It's a postponed wedding for the love of God. Try to keep a bit of perspective.

prunudo

Ultimately until all countries are using the same parameters to measure deaths and cases all these comparisons are useless.
Even here our figures are dubious, they report them as 1446 covid related deaths, that is such a broad statement that it shouldn't be used in any sort of analysis, especially when you take into account the age profile.
Then you have the 22k cases, are they absolute positive or include presumed positive of which I know a few people who tested negative but were told they probably had it but due to lenght of time waiting for test, the sample became invalid.
Or the people who were waiting to be tested but never got tested because the change in criteria. And finally the asymptomatic people who never even got tested.

When these lockdown restrictions started in early March we were seeing the tv reports from Italy and Spain and rightly so the authorities were petrified that would happen here. It never materialised, thankfully down to early closing of schools, large gatherings etc and later businesses being forced to close and people stay at home.

9 weeks later and we are way past the point of easing restrictions. By all means contuining banning of large gatherings, pubs concerts etc. but to keep us locked down to 5km essential travel for another month is madness. Its no wonder some people have decided to create their own interpretation of what is the best way to start living again.


Also to add, this notion of 2nd or future waves. They may not happen, we can't continue in lockdown in the off chance we may get a large increase in numbers. Worrying about what may happen is no way to live life. By all means prepare, have testing, bed capacity etc. But not this perpetual fear of what may happen in the a few months time. We need to get back to a some what normal lifestyle.

robbiezero

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Yeh see, only takes one eggshell...

https://twitter.com/hcirePT/status/1259298114524991491

40 new cases reported so far on the back of that.

Not really that relevant. I don't see anyone saying that every night club in the country should be opened up exactly as they were prior to Corona.
It's surprising that there was only 27 cases out of 2100 nightclubs in Seoul.

niallo27

Doctors in New York in favor off easing restrictions.


https://outline.com/HZUPdc

MrDavid1976

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

How about France and Spain where you need a permit for every trip out of your home?



No permits here.

I don’t get the point. Did we need a further lockdown? As far as I can see from the numbers the mode of lock down has been very successful - numbers in ICU decreasing, mortality rates decreasing, as are new cases. Those new cases seem to be concentrated on people working in essential work where social distancing is very difficult and in direct provision centres.

But the numbers now point to further easing at a faster pace.

rob316

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Plenty of the countries opening quicker either were shut down sooner, had a harsher shutdown, or both.

There was a segment on Ivan's newstalk show yesterday that included an Irish person in Italy speaking about the fact they couldnt leave the house for the past two months. Similar stories from Spain. The people being interviewed were delighted that they were getting to a point more in line with Ireland's restrictions. I'm sure you heard it since you're constantly quoting newstalk.

Your constant attempts to paint Ireland's restrictions as harsher than anywhere else are tiresome and quite frankly utter bollocks.

We've got 70 people in ICU, potentially half that by the time phase 1 kicks in. There's no justification for this overly conservative approach.

rob316

You'll know today anyway when Boris announces their reopening plan how appropriate ours is.

retro:electro

Tell me how wrote: »

The images from hospitals in Italy and Spain have definitely been forgotten at this point obviously.

It's a postponed wedding for the love of God. Try to keep a bit of perspective.

Oh dear lord. Catch yourself on shoehorning the images from Italy into something because I dared state something else sounds grim. I should have given an asterisk to clarify *not as grim as the images from Italy, for people like yourself who struggle to separate one context from another.

pjohnson

rob316 wrote: »

You'll know today anyway when Boris announces their reopening plan how appropriate ours is.

If we match his we know we need to adjust further. Hopefully we're the complete opposite.

rob316

pjohnson wrote: »

If we match his we know we need to adjust further. Hopefully we're the complete opposite.

They were late going into lockdown but they went in the same time as us and have the same measures. More in common than you care to admit. Hopefully they are a bit quicker reopening and that pressures our lot to review the timeline.

Rodin

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

How about France and Spain where you need a permit for every trip out of your home?



No permits here.

Sure who'd be checking it.
I've a letter from work saying I'm needed there but has remained where I put it the day I got it.
Nobody has asked to see it

KrustyUCC

rob316 wrote: »

You'll know today anyway when Boris announces their reopening plan how appropriate ours is.

Yes going to be interesting

By media reports garden centres etc will reopen on Wednesday however some of their phases might be longer than ours which is not good news esp with the border

Loozer

the kelt wrote: »

Yep which is going to happen everywhere. No matter what happens there will be a spike in every country that eases restrictions.

The thing is Korea have in place a rapid turnaround when it comes to testing of people combined with a sophisticated track and trace system which means they will quickly track trace and isolate.

Unfortunately we are in the dark ages when it comes both of those aspects and they are every bit as important as lock down, restrictions etc etc but a lot of people think lock down etc is the only game in town because all the other aspects don’t get discussed.

Maybe because to discuss this would be to admit the failings at those levels?

Lockdown and ICU numbers seems to be the extent of it here

frillyleaf

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

After the behaviour yesterday of people going to the beach and queuing up for ice cream, the easing of restrictions cannot happen on the 18th as planned, there will be 3 week delay for phase 1 and 6 weeks between the stages. There will be advice to Government next week on whether to cancel Christmas or not.

They surely can’t extend it again for another three weeks. The case figures are too low to warrant this.

Ginger n Lemon

Good morning.

Dutch lockdown exit strategy below. The 1 thing I keep noticing looking at Belgium/Germany/Denmark/Netherlands lifting restrictions, apart from the fact the they seem to be lifting them 2 - 3 times quicker than us, is that none of them talk about 2km or 5km or 20km. Puzzling, do all other countries dont see any value in these movement restrictions?

"
May 11
Hairdressers, nail technicians and similar jobs can open again, provided that they work by appointment and ask customers beforehand if they have any symptoms. Non-contact outdoor sports , such as tennis and golf, can be practiced again, although competitions are still not allowed.

June 1
Public transport will run according to the normal timetable, wearing a face mask on public transport will be mandatory. High schools will reopen. A maximum of 10 people can sit together outside bars. Restaurants, theatres and cinemas can open their doors for a maximum of 30 people, who need to reserve beforehand and keep 1.5 meters apart. Libraries will be allowed to open.

July 1
Campsites and holiday parks are allowed to open, including shared shower and toilet facilities. Restaurants, cinemas and theatres can scale up to a maximum of 100 people.

September 1
All sports, including contact sports, and competitions will be allowed again. Saunas, casinos, cafeterias and coffee shops can open. Sex workers are allowed to work."

Colibri

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

There will be advice to Government next week on whether to cancel Christmas or not.

regardless of what side anyone's on, that is brilliant!

uli84

rob316 wrote: »

You'll know today anyway when Boris announces their reopening plan how appropriate ours is.

I don’t think we should be comparing ourselves to the UK