Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

Ulysses Gaze

dalyboy wrote: »

OPEN UP THE ECONOMY NOW, if not , we will.

prunudo

On a possible second wave, its not a given and should it happen, we should worry about it when it does. We will be more prepared for it as we know what to expect. Set aside space in the hospitals and we know how to social distance so can easily revert back to that but a 2nd lockdown to the same severity as we had up till may 5th is not the answer.
We need to speed up this opening while continuing to observe good hand hygiene, not permitting crowded gatherings and protecting vulnerable people.
The distance rule needs to go immediately and there needs to an official acknowledgment that its much less likely to catch it outdoors.

The hysteria and fearmongering I've witness on both tv and radio the last few days is shocking considering the positive news regarding lowering numbers. I thought we were a new nation after recent referendum and we were now a country of people who weren't after to think critically or look at things from a pragmatic view but it appears we're still full of people who follow the crowd, just the popular narrative has swung in a different direction.

snowcat

Arghus wrote: »

I don't have expert knowledge of the level of debate in other countries about their particular levels of panic regarding a second wave. I'm sure it's a subject in their wider discussions about covid 19.

But levels of panic are kind of irrelevant really. There was absolutely no panic anywhere in January, February and even into March in some places: but we still got hit. So how panicked or concerned we are or not about something can have very little bearing on what actually happens.

Frankly, it's a bit of an exaggeration to speak of panic. This thread is actually the most panicked thing I come into contact with. It's simply unreal reading most of the posts in here.

Most people - out there in the real world - are a bit more cheerful than what they were a few weeks ago. Even the tone from the DOH daily briefings is more upbeat, today they announced that they were going to start giving less of them: they even smiled about it. Laughter, from that inhuman beast Tony Holohan, imagine.

People are less gloomy, more patient and more optimistic out there. Things aren't perfect, but the country seems to be getting there. Honestly, this thread doesn't reflect how people generally are feeling out there and I'm still out there working, I meet people everyday. This thread is so nuts. It's boards insanity in the most purest form: it's hysterical.

We all are presenting opinion here. But one thing that is a fact is that we had - and Europe had - a first wave of the virus. And that began from a handful of cases. There would have been a point here where we would have had literally a handful of cases, which then grew, slowly at first, until we had a lot more.

That's fact: that happened. We all were here and observed it. So evidently, based on observable fact, the virus has exactly the same potential to do that again. Nothing has changed. So to warn of the dangers of a remergence of the virus isn't fiction or opinion it's based on what has just literally happened. The virus clearly spreads easily and quickly if given the chance, so why wouldn't you warn of the dangers of giving it a chance? That's not panic, that's just sensible advice.

Most of your post makes sense apart from the potential bits towards the end. Every virus has the potential to kill millions. This one and anyone that follows. What we have learnt from this one is a lockdown seems to have a flattening effect. Great, We and most countries did that and it worked.

We seem to have shutdown after that and gone on our own little exploratory mission. We have not learned from other countries. We have relaxed our restrictions, weeks after other countries, and not seen any spike which correlates with other countries.

1000's of builders back and the creating of queues in hardware stores have not fed into the figures. Despite the zeal of some on here wanting to report builders for eating breakfast rolls together.

The fact is we are not learning and understanding this virus. We are the last in Europe and it is not reflecting on us well internationally.

Nonoperational

dalyboy wrote: »

I can’t believe he’s still in place after “18 other covid” gate. Even my 5 year old laughs at that YouTube clip.

Whatever you think of him otherwise, to make a big deal over this is pathetic. The guy misunderstood the naming. It has no practical repercussions and we have all gotten something into our head at times that is incorrect but sticks with us.

To jump on things like this and call it a “gate” is sad. If you’re sitting at home watching that clip with your 5 year old on repeat that says a hell of a lot more about you than him.

Clonmel1000

Feel a bit hopeless having seen Harris on tv last night. Any chance I thought we might have had of a relaxation of the restrictions a bit early is gone. We’re sticking to the timetable and that’s it and we’re being threatened with a return to pre May 18th if we don’t. I enjoy this thread most of the people here I share there sentiments on opening up quicker albeit with some changes to pre covid and just getting on with our lives. Unfortunately and depressingly this is a view not shared it seems by a majority of people in the country. I suppose we’ll just have to grin and bear it now. I’ve resigned myself to it. Keep up the good work in this thread though.

prunudo

prunudo wrote: »

On a possible second wave, its not a given and should it happen, we should worry about it when it does. We will be more prepared for it as we know what to expect. Set aside space in the hospitals and we know how to social distance so can easily revert back to that but a 2nd lockdown to the same severity as we had up till may 5th is not the answer.
We need to speed up this opening while continuing to observe good hand hygiene, not permitting crowded gatherings and protecting vulnerable people.
The distance rule needs to go immediately and there needs to an official acknowledgment that its much less likely to catch it outdoors.

The hysteria and fearmongering I've witness on both tv and radio the last few days is shocking considering the positive news regarding lowering numbers. I thought we were a new nation after recent referendum and we were now a country of people who weren't after to think critically or look at things from a pragmatic view but it appears we're still full of people who follow the crowd, just the popular narrative has swung in a different direction.

I think the difference with a second wave, if it comes, will that it will be more like a swell than a wave with the distancing, hygiene and testing measures now in place. We should be able to spot it a lot sooner, and react appropriately. As we see cases ebb and flow elsewhere we will be able to change restrictions and checks at points of entry to limit the number of cases coming in as the situation changes. Everyone is also much more aware, so as long as we get employers to play ball and not expect people to come to work with mild symptoms, a second wave should be significantly slower than the first, as there just wont be the same number of daily interactions as there was with the initial surge. With no mass gatherings for a number of months yet, contact tracing will be a lot more accurate, allowing any outbreaks to be contained more successfully. In keeping with the wave analogy, we saw the first wave as it broke on the rocks as focus was elsewhere. IF a second wave comes we will see it well out to sea and will have time to turn into the wave and ride it out.

mirrorwall14

The only way a relaxation happens is if we start lobbying government. Unless we are contacting our TDs and putting the pressure on and they put the pressure on Harris the timetable will stay

snowcat

snowcat wrote: »

Most of your post makes sense apart from the potential bits towards the end. Every virus has the potential to kill millions. This one and anyone that follows. What we have learnt from this one is a lockdown seems to have a flattening effect. Great, We and most countries did that and it worked.

We seem to have shutdown after that and gone on our own little exploratory mission. We have not learned from other countries. We have relaxed our restrictions, weeks after other countries, and not seen any spike which correlates with other countries.

1000's of builders back and the creating of queues in hardware stores have not fed into the figures. Despite the zeal of some on here wanting to report builders for eating breakfast rolls together.

The fact is we are not learning and understanding this virus. We are the last in Europe and it is not reflecting on us well internationally.

We have not had the time to see the effect of builders and hardware stores being back yet, however the data from elsewhere suggests we shouldn't. We did peak about 3 weeks later than most of Western Europe also.

What lockdown has done is suppress, distancing flattens. That's why in combination they work well. Suppress until you get to a level where distancing will allow you to maintain a low level, giving you a buffer to react if a new surge happens. I think a surge is unlikely however with social distancing, such as is in place now in the likes of Austria, Germany and Denmark, as evidence so far suggests this keeps R0 at or even slightly below 1. In the short term all businesses who can open with 2m restrictions or alternative distancing measure such as barriers should be allowed . In 6 weeks or so, this can be reduced to 1m with exceptions for those who provide close services such as hairdressers, and maintain a level of disease monitoring - random testing to identify potential new new clusters, anti-body testing to identify if the rate is increasing etc.

Wibbs

From my travels and observations around Dublin anyway, things are definitely relaxing, government or not. There's the beginnings of a "rush hour" in traffic in the mornings, more traffic in general and places and businesses opening up on the quiet. Good.

If there is a "second wave" - and I suspect there won't be, or it'll be a small blip, for the summer anyway - we'll see some evidence of it towards the end of the first June fortnight. A lot of this concern, even panic about the second wave comes from the 1918 pandemic, a very different pandemic and a very different virus and very different sets of circumstances.

JRant

snowcat wrote: »

Most of your post makes sense apart from the potential bits towards the end. Every virus has the potential to kill millions. This one and anyone that follows. What we have learnt from this one is a lockdown seems to have a flattening effect. Great, We and most countries did that and it worked.

We seem to have shutdown after that and gone on our own little exploratory mission. We have not learned from other countries. We have relaxed our restrictions, weeks after other countries, and not seen any spike which correlates with other countries.

1000's of builders back and the creating of queues in hardware stores have not fed into the figures. Despite the zeal of some on here wanting to report builders for eating breakfast rolls together.

The fact is we are not learning and understanding this virus. We are the last in Europe and it is not reflecting on us well internationally.

The goalposts seemingly shift at the whim of NPHET and the CMO with next to no public discussion on the matter.
Flatten the curve >> Suppression >> Second wave

So we have absolutely no idea what we are supposed to be working towards. What's the goal, what are the metrics needed to speed things up. If deaths down to zero and no community transmission aren't going to get us moving quicker, I'd love to know what is.

Schools and creches have been closed since early March and we still haven't had a clear plan put forward to open those back up.

I'm not sure what the government are doing but it's very clear what they haven't been doing.

plodder

dalyboy wrote: »

I can’t believe he’s still in place after “18 other covid” gate. Even my 5 year old laughs at that YouTube clip.

Whatever about that, Michael McDowell has a piece in today's Irish Times complaining about the "puritanism" of the 2 metre "advice" and also the comment that people should not be "dickeying up" their houses during the pandemic. I had to search for that and it's Harris who said that too

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/michael-mcdowell-we-will-laugh-at-the-puritanism-of-the-two-metre-advice-1.4263179

uli84

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Feel a bit hopeless having seen Harris on tv last night. Any chance I thought we might have had of a relaxation of the restrictions a bit early is gone. We’re sticking to the timetable and that’s it and we’re being threatened with a return to pre May 18th if we don’t. I enjoy this thread most of the people here I share there sentiments on opening up quicker albeit with some changes to pre covid and just getting on with our lives. Unfortunately and depressingly this is a view not shared it seems by a majority of people in the country. I suppose we’ll just have to grin and bear it now. I’ve resigned myself to it. Keep up the good work in this thread though.

Not just you, this guy gives me (and i’m sure many others) a depression every time I hear him, does he really not realise how miserable he is at age 34, starting to feel sorry for him tbh

pconn062

One good part of the lockdown was how quiet and clean our local beauty spot beach was. Unfortunately as I ran past yesterday it was full again of the usual people who only go to the beach when the weather is good and on bank holidays, drinking cans and lighting BBQs. As I went by at 9pm last night the rubbish was already piling up; bottles, cans, kids toys, wrappers. Dreading to see what it will be like after this weekend.

Jayesdiem

Nonoperational wrote: »

Whatever you think of him otherwise, to make a big deal over this is pathetic. The guy misunderstood the naming. It has no practical repercussions and we have all gotten something into our head at times that is incorrect but sticks with us.

To jump on things like this and call it a “gate” is sad. If you’re sitting at home watching that clip with your 5 year old on repeat that says a hell of a lot more about you than him.

I’d disagree with you there. His misunderstanding was reflective of his lack of knowledge and was not a slip of the tongue as he tried to portray it. If he was well-researched on these viruses, as he should have been, that mistake would never have been made. It’s not the mistake itself that is concerning - it’s what the mistake represents (lack of understanding) and that tallies with his bad behaviour throughout this crisis. See the comments on pubs as an example. He is out of his depth here and these little “tells” are indicative of that.

Idbatterim

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Are you still in Ireland? I thought you were heading off to Las Vegas or somewhere to make a fortune. What happened to that grand plan of yours?

The Vegas on offer for the next few months, isnt worth going to. No nightclubs, four handed Texas holdem. No day clubs. Total bollocks, the same as here...

MrDavid1976

Arghus wrote: »

I don't have expert knowledge of the level of debate in other countries about their particular levels of panic regarding a second wave. I'm sure it's a subject in their wider discussions about covid 19.

But levels of panic are kind of irrelevant really. There was absolutely no panic anywhere in January, February and even into March in some places: but we still got hit. So how panicked or concerned we are or not about something can have very little bearing on what actually happens.

Frankly, it's a bit of an exaggeration to speak of panic. This thread is actually the most panicked thing I come into contact with. It's simply unreal reading most of the posts in here.

Most people - out there in the real world - are a bit more cheerful than what they were a few weeks ago. Even the tone from the DOH daily briefings is more upbeat, today they announced that they were going to start giving less of them: they even smiled about it. Laughter, from that inhuman beast Tony Holohan, imagine.

People are less gloomy, more patient and more optimistic out there. Things aren't perfect, but the country seems to be getting there. Honestly, this thread doesn't reflect how people generally are feeling out there and I'm still out there working, I meet people everyday. This thread is so nuts. It's boards insanity in the most purest form: it's hysterical.

We all are presenting opinion here. But one thing that is a fact is that we had - and Europe had - a first wave of the virus. And that began from a handful of cases. There would have been a point here where we would have had literally a handful of cases, which then grew, slowly at first, until we had a lot more.

That's fact: that happened. We all were here and observed it. So evidently, based on observable fact, the virus has exactly the same potential to do that again. Nothing has changed. So to warn of the dangers of a remergence of the virus isn't fiction or opinion it's based on what has just literally happened. The virus clearly spreads easily and quickly if given the chance, so why wouldn't you warn of the dangers of giving it a chance? That's not panic, that's just sensible advice.

There are ranges of views in here from some who did not believe any lockdown was necessary to those who think it was and now should be lifted quicker. But many of us in here are screaming as we are watching an economic and social car crash in front of our eyes.

There is no doubt that there are some people who are happier right now. They are getting guilt free money from the State, they may be relived to be away from stressful jobs, perhaps they are getting much needed family time and they do not have a crappy commute every day to a job which does not fulfil them. Modern life is tough for a lot of people and I can see why right now people are enjoying that break. Add in great weather and improved air quality. There are others who are happier as they are, at heart, killjoys - no pubs open, no nightclubs, no sports - happy days.

The problem we have is what is coming down the line. We are a small open modern economy which is punching above its weight. We have built ourselves up through high standards of education and a huge amount of flexibility plus guile. We are a highly connected country with strong links to the US, UK and EU. We have some domestic developed business who are giants globally in their fields, we have a strong high value tourism market (not mass market), and importantly we have a strong MNE sector which employs about 10% of our work force and even more of our tax revenues. The nature of our economy is that we are highly dependent on what happens elsewhere but we also need to continue to work to our advantages.

What is happening right now is that we have shut down our education system, retail, hospitality and effectively our borders. We have had a project fear PR campaign and messaging from the top which has been quite extraordinary and until recent days very effective. But the plan to get us out of this was too slow and careful to the point of it now being damaging economically and in terms of our International reputation. the PR campaign has been so effective that thousands of people are in fear or unsustainably better off under the current situation. The conditions in which to get things open again are massively complicated - opening schools, opening retail, opening childcare, increasing capacity on public transport. very difficult to do with project fear.

Financially the State has stepped in with payments to compensate workers and support employers but the money is not endless and will have to be withdrawn in the coming weeks. We simply cannot afford to have 600k plus on State payments. The banking sector and the pension funds can only do so much in terms of supporting business - they are still weak from the financial crisis. We cannot run a country and a health service on fumes.

At the same time, we are in an unfortunate position politically and handing the microphone to the medics means that the message is super cautious and extremely difficult for a politician to ignore and/or easy for a politician to hide behind. I saw here a post whereby someone said they would not trust the Dept of health or the HSE to run a bath, yet they are now running the country. The political hysteria over the opening of home wares was ridiculous- they were afraid and they have serious trust issues in the population. The lack of common sense on 2m vs 1m was quite incredible and in a microcosm shows the challenges we face. Then we look to the clear failings in the nursing homes - meanwhile the CMO is saying we should not be in the blame game!!

I don’t think any of us know what will happen. I certainly hope (And the evidence elsewhere indicates)!that the worst of the virus is behind us. But I fear we are facing a very bad place economically. Is that fear grounded? Well close friends and family have already been let go or told the financial position in their business is so dire that there will be substantial lay offs once the wage subsidy is removed. the hospitality sector is in a bad way (200k jobs) and there is a lack of certainty in terms of what will happen. Retail was already struggling due to increased competition from the platform economy - it is not panic or hysteria to say that some businesses will never reopen. The quarantining of the borders means we are out of step with other EU countries and that is not a good signal to give.

The State finances will be in a terrible position at the end of this year (there will be a need to be spending cuts) and if we are seen as out of step then it will be damaging to our reputation - what signal does it give if other countries can open their schools in May and we struggle to open them in September?

Right now we need leadership and a change in messaging. We need to say that we have done well and we need to say that the plan will be accelerated while banking the positives such as good hygiene practices. We need encouraging messaging on those sectors such as supermarkets who have shown that things can open. There needs to be more trust in the population. We need leadership which should be positive rather than ultra cautious. We need to point to our neighbouring EU countries who have done well as examples to follow.

We can choose to be ‘sensible’ and ‘cautious’ while damaging the economy further, or we can decide to be a little braver and open now with safeguards in place - the same safeguards which have worked in sectors open through the last 12 weeks. The latter approach at least can give business a chance to survive.

Idbatterim

Good post above. The country is always in a paralysed state, a huge amount of damage could be undone by unwinding restrictions asap , but no, stick to their bull**** plan. The virus is going to stop at the door of these shops, with the future dates. Come the 8th of june or whatever it is, it wont be entering homeware stores...

TheCitizen

Idbatterim wrote: »

The Vegas on offer for the next few months, isnt worth going to. No nightclubs, four handed Texas holdem. No day clubs. Total bollocks, the same as here...

Aw no, so you're sticking around

Idbatterim

TheCitizen wrote: »

Aw no, so you're sticking around

yeah saving as much as I can , to be blown in the city of sin, rather than the country of misery...

plodder

I'm certainly not panicked. I'm enjoying the good weather, getting great work done in the garden (after 20 years of neglect), and personally can work from home no problem at all, but I'm seriously worried about the long term consequences of this and whether we are getting the balance right. I'm also seriously p!ssed off about the 'once size fits all' plan for how to re-open the economy. The plan such as it is, is the barest outline of a strategy - it's not a proper plan at all. Simon Harris has gone native. He is just seeing the health perspective, but where are the rest of the government?

Polar101

JRant wrote: »

The goalposts seemingly shift at the whim of NPHET and the CMO with next to no public discussion on the matter.
Flatten the curve >> Suppression >> Second wave

So we have absolutely no idea what we are supposed to be working towards. What's the goal, what are the metrics needed to speed things up.

I'm not sure if that's correct. We do know the "5-phase plan", and we know Leo will be telling us more early in June, which sounds like around "Phase 2". Whether the plan is good or not, it's no secret.

We know what we are working towards - keeping the virus at bay. Now it looks like it's working great. People are expecting some sort of treats handed out if we are good, and then they complain that the government treats them like children.

Idbatterim

Polar101 wrote: »

I'm not sure if that's correct. We do know the "5-phase plan", and we know Leo will be telling us more early in June, which sounds like around "Phase 2". Whether the plan is good or not, it's no secret.

We know what we are working towards - keeping the virus at bay. Now it looks like it's working great. People are expecting some sort of treats handed out if we are good, and then they complain that the government treats them like children.

Destroying the economy now for no reason, is an idiotic consequence of this "plan". It's like they cant see anything other than covid19 ...

facehugger99

Like in our recent past, it's Europe that will drag us kicking and screaming into the light.

Much as Harris, Varadkar and Holohan will continue to stoke the fires of fear, it won't be sustainable as more people see what is happening in our neighboring countries.

Unfortunately we have done, and will continue to do, untold damage while this lockdown nonsense continues.

There is a large bill coming in the post, that's been spectacularly inflated due to our atrocious handling of this. The lack of leadership, from the political class that we so handsomely remunerate, has been jaw-dropping. Our economy has been flushed down the toilet, our children have been saddled with billions of euros of debt and had their education and social growth sacrificed as our 'leaders' hid behind a bureaucrat's skirts.

We are facing a raft of new taxes and charges, a scythe will be taken to social-spending across the board and when the clappy-seals, sitting on their holes watching Netflix finally wake up to it, it'll already be far too late.

mean gene

Banana Republic

Ginger n Lemon

The thread basically turned into

95% - open the economy.

5% - economy is not doomed, its fine, its gonna bounce back. 2nd wave might come and no point in looking at other countries because they ve only lifted restrictions for couple of weeks.

Its amazing this is my 4th week on this thread and the only thing that changed are the %s above. No 2nd wave has happened anywhere, anywhere...

In the meantime more good news, we are definitely on course for last kid in the class finish

BULGARIA TO OPEN RESTAURANTS, CULTURAL VENUES FROM JUNE 1

"Bulgaria will allow restaurants, bars and cafés to reopen at full capacity on June 1, Reuters reported.

Health Minister Kiril Ananiev published a new order on Tuesday allowing bars and restaurants to resume business ahead of the summer season, an important source of income for Bulgaria, a popular tourist destination.

Ananiev also gave the green light for cultural and entertainment events, including theaters, concerts and stage performances. Dance classes could also resume, using up to 30 percent of their indoor capacity and up to 50 percent of the outdoor capacity."

Keyzer

NegativeCreep wrote: »

The thing about the 350 payment is it highlights how little people were paid before this. I saw supermarkets are complaining that they can’t find staff because of the Covid payment. If supermarket workers are apparently so essential, let’s start paying them a fair wage! So many people in the country are being paid pennies and it’s time for that to stop

What do you propose then?

Our minimum wage is one of the highest in Europe.

The problem is not the wages, its the entitled masses in this country who couldn't be bothered working and, instead, receive welfare. We are a welfare state.

The gap between being on welfare and having a job is far to small resulting in little incentive for many to actually get a job.

Idbatterim

Keyzer wrote: »

What do you propose then?

Our minimum wage is one of the highest in Europe.

The problem is not the wages, its the entitled masses in this country who couldn't be bothered working and, instead, receive welfare. We are a welfare state.

The gap between being on welfare and having a job is far to small resulting in little incentive for many to actually get a job.

This is all true , but it's the government that decide the system, not Margaret cash . And this fg government have done nothing about the rotten to the core system. Despite their farcical claims of rewarding work!.

It's all happy flappy now. With the long days , great weather. Still enjoying our meal. The full blown swing in the other direction is only a few months off. **** weather, short days and nothing in the news except job losses, recession etc. The miserable ***** here getting the kick out of this virus situation are salivating at the thought of more misery...

the kelt

It’s funny but people are already changing their rhetoric without even noticing it.

In the space of a week posters who are very much in favour of the lockdown timetable as it stands were preaching from the altar of “the definite second wave” to it being possible, maybe etc etc.

It’s funny watching posters extol the virtues of being careful about what might happen when they previously described anyone worried about increased cancers or possible deaths from suicide as nothing but shrill panic merchants. And they don’t even get the irony.

One thing that has shone through this whole thing for me is that empathy for a death from Covid is through the roof whilst a non Covid related death is cast aside as “meh, that’s life”

Ginger n Lemon

Reality hits, damn this always happens in the morning time, I still havent had my coffee

"Ireland’s incoming government faces having to push through almost €11 billion of spending cuts and tax increases in the coming years to rein in a yawning budget deficit resulting from coronavirus, according to the Irish Fiscal and Advisory Council.

The austerity drive could balloon to €15 billion – half the amount endured during the financial crisis years – in a worst-case scenario where the economy is stricken with more coronavirus lockdowns."

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/coronavirus-new-government-faces-financial-hole-of-11bn-1.4263320?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fcoronavirus-new-government-faces-financial-hole-of-11bn-1.4263320

How can anyone be supportive of even 1 more day of lockdown, those people must love paying higher taxes.

Newstalk - GDP will contract 10% this year (Davy chief economist), 12% unemployment on average during 2021. Social distancing requirements will slow down retailers from recovering. He doesnt think housing demand/prices will suffer any sort of serious shock though. **ALL of this is based on 5 phase plan going as planned to 10th of August

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kRTSl6vxlYA

Ashleigh1986

Weather over next couple of days looks great , even long term forecast is positive.
We should be getting positive messages and spending our money to help our economy BUT .... We have the misery duo in holahan and Harris .
Time for Leo to announce the whole of the country reopens on Monday 29th June and NOT AUGUST 10th !!!