Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

thebaz

Arghus wrote: »

Even Sam McConkey mentions that 100 000 figure in terms of it being an absolute worst case nightmare, but probably unlikely figure.

In that article Harris doesn't say he agrees that's a possible death toll.

yet, you were the one that questioned me twice about the doomsday 100,000 death figure - thts what we were being told - it didnt happen - we flattened the curve - yet you and Tony and Simon want to continue with this extreme lockdown when we had 76 new cases today - seriously - would we shut down the country for 76 new cases of any other disease - Right now I'm thinking a bad flu would actually be worse - but the oncoming economic recession will be a real killer - where will Tony and Simon be then ??? still on ther large salarys.

Idbatterim

facehugger99 wrote: »

Holohan will sail into the sunset with his gold-plated pension while the rest of us are left to pick up the pieces of the country he has destroyed.

He was let destroy it by those that should be leading, primarily varadkar the worlds biggest spoofed!

retro:electro

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

But can we ever really eradicate community transmission? What if we get another case after that, maybe an asymptomatic carrier from Britain visits family in NI and an Irish person goes north shopping and brings it back to, cabin crew on a flight bring it back, etc. This is what we have to remember, the virus won't just disappear from our country for ever. You say another 3-4 hypothetical weeks, then it will likely be another 3-4 weeks after that, it never ends. At some stage you have to grasp the nettle.

Exactly. At one stage or another a risky decision is going to have to be made for the greater good. But no one wants to take the risk because it seems we have a spectrum of egos involved and none of them want to be the fall guy. But that’s what leaders are there to do. It is literally their job to lead and make these decisions instead of kicking the can down the road. We should have them confidently moving along the stages and encouraging us along the way. Coronavirus might always be here, we just have to accept that. Many of us have dipped our toe back in the water again despite the government insisting it is not yet safe, and we are simply not afraid anymore.

MrDavid1976

fr336 wrote: »

Be interesting to see how much big business and their cabal might cost us in lost lives and economic damage if health professionals like Holohan, with nothing to gain and you know it, aren't listened to.

I don’t understand the point. The medics are people who have been sitting around canteen tables with instant coffee and Marietta biscuits for years talking about the dangers of pandemics and government after government ignoring public health. Suddenly Tony H is in the limelight with a daily TV show - the politicians are going to listen to him now and he will not change his advice to now suit those politicians who thought he was the head nurse in the Dept of Health all these years.

road_high

Idbatterim wrote: »

I hope thet Holohan ***** is starting to get dogs abuse in public. At what stage was this fool given the keys to the country ?

Well they were still drawing “superman”
murals in homage to our dear leader on Dublin walls last week. Hard to gauge what the real public think but given his antecedence you’d imagine anyone with their critical faculties engaged would not think much of him. And that’s putting it politely

thebaz

Idbatterim wrote: »

He was let destroy it by those that should be leading, primarily varadkar the worlds biggest spoofed!

judging by the pictures in the Park , even Leo at this stage doesnt believe Superman Tony , think its just Simon.

fr336

facehugger99 wrote: »

Holohan will sail into the sunset with his gold-plated pension while the rest of us are left to pick up the pieces of the country he has destroyed.

Oh Face Hugger is back, yay! You are right to be fair, no other country has done what Holohan has done. No other country has been even affected by this pandemic, even.

I dread to think what you would have made of Spain and Italy's lockdowns where you could only leave the house for essential shopping once a day.

Goldengirl

growleaves wrote: »

Ron Paul isn't a Neo-Nazi you space cadet. He was a Senator for Texas for years, a state far more famous and significant than Ireland.

Why call me a space cadet just because I don't appreciate his choice of right wing ..verbiage like you?

His so called Institute is nothing more than a vehicle for his own peculiarly jaundiced view of life and propaganda ,and peddling it here just shows what side of the fence you and ginger are on.

Arghus

thebaz wrote: »

yet, you were the one that questioned me twice about the doomsday 100,000 death figure - thts what we were being told - it didnt happen - we flattened the curve - yet you and Tony and Simon want to continue with this extreme lockdown when we had 76 new cases today - seriously - would we shut down the country for 76 new cases of any other disease - Right now I'm thinking a bad flu would actually be worse - but the oncoming economic recession will be a real killer - where will Tony and Simon be then ??? still on ther large salarys.

One person mentioned that figure as his absolute worst case scenario. I don't accept that was a widely predicted likely figure at time - you think differently, fine.

We disagree.

73 cases today. But the danger is how quickly it spreads and how little immunity there is and that it is many times more dangerous than regular flu.

Beasty

Arghus wrote: »

Even Sam McConkey mentions that 100 000 figure in terms of it being an absolute worst case nightmare, but probably unlikely figure.

In that article Harris doesn't say he agrees that's a possible death toll.

Back in March, when those "worst case" scenarios were mentioned, we still had very little info to go on

At one stage there were suggestions of over 2% of those being infected dying. 2% of the population of Ireland is, you guessed it, 100,000. Relatively little was known of the true extent of spread was known at that time., There were certainly suggestions of asymptomatic spread, but we had a lot less grasp of that then than we do now. And we still are a long way off understanding this. What if we do have a second and possibly 3rd wave. What if we see scenes here like the ones we saw in Milan and Spain?

We remain quite ignorant of the real potential of this virus. Those worst case scenarios were what they said on the tin. We took many actions to help us get no-where near those worst case scenarios. We really cannot properly evaluate where we might have been without those actions until we see how this pans out in terms of possible new waves, and indeed how it impacts poorly prepared countries such as Brazil

Arghus

Beasty wrote: »

Back in March, when those "worst case" scenarios were mentioned, we still had very little info to go on

At one stage there were suggestions of over 2% of those being infected dying. 2% of the population of Ireland is, you guessed it, 100,000. Relatively little was known of the true extent of spread was known at that time., There were certainly suggestions of asymptomatic spread, but we had a lot less grasp of that then than we do now. And we still are a long way off understanding this. What if we do have a second and possibly 3rd wave. What if we see scenes here like the ones we saw in Milan and Spain?

We remain quite ignorant of the real potential of this virus. Those worst case scenarios were what they said on the tin. We took many actions to help us get no-where near those worst case scenarios. We really cannot properly evaluate where we might have been without those actions until we see how this pans out in terms of possible new waves, and indeed how it impacts poorly prepared countries such as Brazil

I agree.

Hurrache

growleaves wrote: »

Up to 85,000 Irish people could die from coronavirus in worst-case scenario, Taoiseach indicates, as three more diagnosed

What kind of stupid point do you think you're actually making posting comments from March pre lockdown re worse case scenarios?

Stark

Beasty wrote: »

Back in March, when those "worst case" scenarios were mentioned, we still had very little info to go on

At one stage there were suggestions of over 2% of those being infected dying. 2% of the population of Ireland is, you guessed it, 100,000. Relatively little was known of the true extent of spread was known at that time., There were certainly suggestions of asymptomatic spread, but we had a lot less grasp of that then than we do now. And we still are a long way off understanding this. What if we do have a second and possibly 3rd wave. What if we see scenes here like the ones we saw in Milan and Spain?

We remain quite ignorant of the real potential of this virus. Those worst case scenarios were what they said on the tin. We took many actions to help us get no-where near those worst case scenarios. We really cannot properly evaluate where we might have been without those actions until we see how this pans out in terms of possible new waves, and indeed how it impacts poorly prepared countries such as Brazil

We have pretty reliable data at this point to say that the IFR rate is likely less than 1% rather than 2%. (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.11.20098780v1, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v3). Also Ireland has a younger population than average so our IFR is probably lower than the global average.

Understandable to use 100,000 as the worst case projection back in March but to use it at this point is just scaremongering.

bb1234567

LiquidZeb wrote: »

What does Brazil have to do with ireland?

Ongoing social impact of lockdown and effects of easing/tightening restrictions in different countries are regularly discussed throughout this entire thread

Pete_Cavan

Do people think the virus is like a stage party and behaves differently in Ireland to how it does when it's in Denmark/Austria/Switzerland etc? If those countries do not experience the dreaded second wave, is there any medical reason why we would? Is there any good reason not to move forward the easing of restrictions but keep an eye on those who have gone ahead of us and reintroduce restrictions here if those countries do relapse? I mean, is this fear based on anything at all?

Hurrache

LiquidZeb wrote: »

What does Brazil have to do with ireland?

What does cafes, bars, barbers, whatever, opening in other countries got to do with Ireland.l?

Like I said earlier yis are pretty selective when it comes to comparing Ireland with other counties and what comparisons to use.

Pete_Cavan

Do people think the virus is like a stage party and behaves differently in Ireland to how it does when it's in Denmark/Austria/Switzerland etc? If those countries do not experience the dreaded second wave, is there any medical reason why we would? Is there any good reason not to move forward the easing of restrictions but keep an eye on those who have gone ahead of us and reintroduce restrictions here if those countries do relapse? I mean, is this fear based on anything at all, medical evidence, experience elsewhere, a WhatsApp message from some lad saying he knows someone in the Army, anything!?

growleaves

Goldengirl wrote: »

Why call me a space cadet just because I don't appreciate his choice of right wing ..verbiage like you?

His so called Institute is nothing more than a vehicle for his own peculiarly jaundiced view of life and propaganda ,and peddling it here just shows what side of the fence you and ginger are on.

He is in the mainstream for the US with libertarian-conservative leanings.

My 'side of the fence'. So presumptuous. I only registered on this site because Sinn Fein had done well in the election and I was excited about a new left-centre politics.

That was before our system of governance changed to following directives issued by a medical-advisory committee.

Goldengirl

growleaves wrote: »

Given what we now know about the age profile of the victims, the recovery rate, the likely CFR etc. there is no way that lockdown prevented 120,000 deaths.

The official estimate (at first) was 85,000 deaths, hugely overestimated.

Boards-Twitter-social media predictions were that a cykotine storm mutation reminiscent of 1918-19 would wipe out tens or hundreds of millions worldwide. The less said the better! (A lot of the spoofers offering these predictions have now fled these threads.)

The point is that the general atmosphere of terror was conjured by these stories throwing around very high death-rate estimates.

Anyway you asked where the 100,000 figure came from so I supplied a link.

So you tell us then .what do you know about all of these indicators ?

You know better than anyone else here after all.

Hurrache

Idbatterim wrote: »

I hope thet Holohan ***** is starting to get dogs abuse in public. At what stage was this fool given the keys to the country ?

Dregs, thankfully a vocal minority who aren't brave enough to venture beyond voicing their opinions beyond the internet, are coming out anyway.

growleaves

Hurrache wrote: »

What kind of stupid point do you think you're actually making posting comments from March pre lockdown re worse case scenarios?

Lol.

Two other commenters were discussing the initial predictions from March, and one of them asked to see those predictions as they were unfamiliar with them.

So I helpfully provided them.

Hubertj

I reckon once a government is formed recommendations of Tony and NPHET will start to get diluted. Current government is afraid to make a mistake, Tony is afraid to make a mistake so both are taking a conservative view. Load of bol*ox

LiquidZeb

Beasty wrote: »

Attack the post, not the poster

Bit ironic considering the poster in question has accused another poster of being a Nazi several times.

Arghus

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

Do people think the virus is like a stage party and behaves differently in Ireland to how it does when it's in Denmark/Austria/Switzerland etc? If those countries do not experience the dreaded second wave, is there any medical reason why we would? Is there any good reason not to move forward the easing of restrictions but keep an eye on those who have gone ahead of us and reintroduce restrictions here if those countries do relapse? I mean, is this fear based on anything at all, medical evidence, experience elsewhere, any!?

There is a difference in rate of infection and impact on differing countries, depending on socio factors.

For instance they reckon it spread with ease in Italy partly because people lived close together with different generations under the same roof and people have a tactile, up close way of greeting each other.

And part of the reason why the spread of the virus hasn't gone utterly nuts in Sweden is because over 50% of Swedes live on their own and tend to not greet each other with the same gusto as some countries.

growleaves

Beasty wrote: »

Back in March, when those "worst case" scenarios were mentioned, we still had very little info to go on

At one stage there were suggestions of over 2% of those being infected dying. 2% of the population of Ireland is, you guessed it, 100,000. Relatively little was known of the true extent of spread was known at that time., There were certainly suggestions of asymptomatic spread, but we had a lot less grasp of that then than we do now. And we still are a long way off understanding this. What if we do have a second and possibly 3rd wave. What if we see scenes here like the ones we saw in Milan and Spain?

We remain quite ignorant of the real potential of this virus. Those worst case scenarios were what they said on the tin. We took many actions to help us get no-where near those worst case scenarios. We really cannot properly evaluate where we might have been without those actions until we see how this pans out in terms of possible new waves, and indeed how it impacts poorly prepared countries such as Brazil

There was no reason to pre-panic, as I said at the time and still say.

Any routine pandemic could mutate into something much worse.

road_high

Hubertj wrote: »

I reckon once a government is formed recommendations of Tony and NPHET will start to get diluted. Current government is afraid to make a mistake, Tony is afraid to make a mistake so both are taking a conservative view. Load of bol*ox

There won’t a new government for months if at all. I’d be confident a new government won’t be formed until
After August and the ludicrous phases have been ran through. That’s if the dear leader doesn’t extend them which I wouldn’t put past him at all. The threats will surely rise now it’s bank holiday

LiquidZeb

Hurrache wrote: »

What does cafes, bars, barbers, whatever, opening in other countries got to do with Ireland.l?

Like I said earlier yis are pretty selective when it comes to comparing Ireland with other counties and what comparisons to use.

Well considering Ireland has a similar age demographic, income level, standard of living and National health service like European countries it's a fair comparison. I saw Sao Paulo on sky news last night and if anyone thinks it's like Ireland they're having themselves on

No lads, because 100,000 didn’t die, the lockdown was pointless and achieved nothing.

Knowing what we know now worst case would have been 30,000, best case 10,000 without restrictions. With distancing only , best case would have been something like where Sweden are heading at 500 deaths per week.

We did not know that in early March though. And even so, the swedes are now protesting to go onto lockdown
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1287304/sweden-protests-coronavirus-death-toll-herd-immunity-Europe-covid19-news

Hurrache

growleaves wrote: »

Lol.

Two other commenters were discussing the initial predictions from March, and one of them asked to see those predictions as they were unfamiliar with them.

So I helpfully provided them.

Apologies, I didn't see you replying to anyone so thought it was a random post.

It's a **** show of a thread at the best of times so I expect to see everything and anything.

Goldengirl

JRant wrote: »

And let's not allow people to rewrite history by suggesting this was some lone wolf scientist. Those numbers were shouted loudly by Harris and Leo at the time. The media lapped up the misery porn and we're more than happy to run with it. Even the low ball value of 20000 deaths (with restrictions) seems to have been wiped from history.

Because we locked down, ya shower of virus deniers !