Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

Arghus

retro:electro wrote: »

It’s gone a bit mad in here tonight

I know.

It's usually so peaceful!

Idbatterim

JRant wrote: »

The initial lockdown was the right call as we just didn't know enough about this virus at the time. That was months ago and since then we know a hell of a lot more. We even have data from countries who went different routes to analyze.

What we shouldn't do know is bury our heads in the sand and keep the country under severe restrictions for another 2.5 months.

The initial lockdown was to be expected in a hyper cautious conservative country. That good and fortunate initial circumstance, is now our Achilles heel

Hurrache

Idbatterim wrote: »

The initial lockdown was to be expected in a hyper cautious conservative country. That good and fortunate initial circumstance, is now our Achilles heel

We're not such a conservative country though

However the lockdowns were pretty much the same the world over, conservative or not. And it wasn't too long ago when people were looking for stricter ones on this forum.

growleaves

Arghus wrote: »

I know.

It's usually so peaceful!

I LOL'd!

growleaves

It measures excess mortality for 2018, 2019 and what we have had so far for 2020. These people measure death rates from flu across Europe.

The line on the graph representing 2020 is absolutely huge compared to the two previous years.

If you were to do a graph from 1950's to 2020 and adjust for population growth, 2020 would not be the worst year.

Charles Babbage

growleaves wrote: »

If you were to do a graph from 1950's to 2020 and adjust for population growth, 2020 would not be the worst year.

It is only May so far!!

JRant

Arghus wrote: »

It's far worse than flu.

I'll link to this again:

https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

If you look at their graph measuring excess mortality across all ages. It measures excess mortality for 2018, 2019 and what we have had so far for 2020. These people measure death rates from flu across Europe.

The line on the graph representing 2020 is absolutely huge compared to the two previous years.

Very interesting link, thanks for sharing.
Looks like there are very real differences between neighbouring countries, which will make for very interesting research in years to come.

Our Z score looks like we have very few excess deaths here thankfully.

bb1234567

thebaz wrote: »

You called me out on it - twice - as if I just made up the number - thats what a frightened Irish public was told - it is playing out like a bad flu - the death rate is not 2% , nevermind the 20% or 10% I have seen quoted on boards , some experts believe it could even be under .1% and that is on par with flu.

And those experts are completely wrong. It is far higher than flu, multiple large scale antibody studies have now determined it in the range of 1%

Can you explain how a virus with an IFR 'under 0.1%' could already have killed 0.2% of new York city's population when antibody tests showed only 20% of the city residents have had it?
Youd have to wonder at the ignorance of some posters to the reality of the situation around the world coming out with bs like this

Btw it's funny you're making fun of this person who apparently thought it was 10% IFR because like him who overestimated by a factor of ten you underestimate by a factor of 10, so you're equally wrong !

thebaz

bb1234567 wrote: »

And those experts are completely wrong. It is far higher than flu, multiple large scale antibody studies have now determined it in the range of 1%

Can you explain how a virus with an IFR 'under 0.1%' could already have killed 0.2% of new York city's population when antibody tests showed only 20% of the city residents have had it?
Youd have to wonder at the ignorance of some posters to the reality of the situation around the world coming out with bs like this

Only a professor from Oxford Univerity :-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DKh6kJ-RSMI

but I suppose you too are a Proffesor , so less of the ignorant abuse

road_high

Notice how "saint" Tony is getting a lot more ratty and confrontational the more he is being questioned...at the start of the mania all the loons were hanging on his every syllable. Now we have the threats, the dismissiveness. Reckon this could all bubble over quite nicely into a political storm to push him out of the way (not that he'll be going anywhere too easily).

bb1234567

thebaz wrote: »

Only a professor from Oxford Univerity :-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DKh6kJ-RSMI

but I suppose you too are a Proffesor , so less of the ignorant abuse

It doesn't matter an iota who said it. He is wrong, antibody tests, and the actual percentage of people who have died from the virus in a given population, both show that his opinion is completely wrong. And no I am not a professor, nor am I nearly as smart as him, but it doesn't mean there is not existing proof which enitrely discredits this opinion. Actual reality trumps an opinion even if its the opinion of the greatest most intelligent mind on earth, sorry to say.

Utopia Parkway

road_high wrote: »

Notice how "saint" Tony is getting a lot more ratty and confrontational the more he is being questioned...at the start of the mania all the loons were hanging on his every syllable. Now we have the threats, the dismissiveness. Reckon this could all bubble over quite nicely into a political storm to push him out of the way (not that he'll be going anywhere too easily).

Oh no doubt they'll be a blame game between the politicians and NPHET coming somewhere down the line.

growleaves

Link

Raw numbers, with official COVID deaths subtracted:

Since the dashed line doesn’t drop as usual, this suggests the lockdown is killing people. Worse in England.

stephenjmcd

Utopia Parkway wrote: »

Oh no doubt they'll be a blame game between the politicians and NPHET coming somewhere down the line.

Already started and its getting more frequent, Leo saying at every chance the last few days if the data allows he'll speed things up, CMO comes out and crushes it later that evening. This weeks cabinet meeting will probably be fairly straight forward.

Its next weeks one where they've to make decisions on phase 2 and any other measures that'll be interesting.

alta stare

road_high wrote: »

Notice how "saint" Tony is getting a lot more ratty and confrontational the more he is being questioned...at the start of the mania all the loons were hanging on his every syllable. Now we have the threats, the dismissiveness. Reckon this could all bubble over quite nicely into a political storm to push him out of the way (not that he'll be going anywhere too easily).

I think they know they are loosing the people no matter what people say on social media or the mainstream media. Only a handful of their followers will be left swooning over them soon no matter what crap we are spoon fed from the government.

More and more people are out and about. The weather is playing a big part in that. I was at the beach today and ill be bringing my child again Friday.

thebaz

bb1234567 wrote: »

It doesn't matter an iota who said it. He is wrong, antibody tests, and the actual percentage of people who have died from the virus in a given population, both show that his opinion is completely wrong. And no I am not a professor, nor am I nearly as smart as him, but it doesn't mean he is not entirely wrong.

Well you seam to know it all , but if you bothered watching you would have realised it was a woman - now good night - had eneogh of this ****ing place and the abuse - believe Tony and co and WHO all you want - I'll believe what I want.

Idbatterim

Hoolahan has no power, wtf aRe people on about ?!

bb1234567

thebaz wrote: »

Well you seam to know it all , but if you bothered watching you would have realised it was a woman - now good night - had eneogh of this ****ing place and the abuse - believe Tony and co and WHO all you want - I'll believe what I want.

Will it make you happy to believe it is the same as flu even though you know it won't change the actual reality of how we have to deal with it as a society. I don't care what the WHO or Tony say, I believe the results of antibody tests, which have determined the IFR to be around 1%, because it is proof, and not an opinion of people with any kind of bias or vested interests or political alinements or trying to scare monger, it is just objective truth and nothing more.

stephenjmcd

alta stare wrote: »

I think they know they are loosing the people no matter what people say on social media or the mainstream media. Only a handful of their followers will be left swooning over them soon no matter what crap we are spoon fed from the government.

More and more people are out and about. The weather is playing a big part in that. I was at the beach today and ill be bringing my child again Friday.

Mid to high 20s all weekend, you wont be the only one at the beach, but we'll probably be shown the images on the news of busy beaches and told this isn't acceptable.

alta stare

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Mid to high 20s all weekend, you wont be the only one at the beach, but we'll probably be shown the images on the news of busy beaches and told this isn't acceptable.

Fu(k em.

Jim Root

road_high wrote: »

Notice how "saint" Tony is getting a lot more ratty and confrontational the more he is being questioned...at the start of the mania all the loons were hanging on his every syllable. Now we have the threats, the dismissiveness. Reckon this could all bubble over quite nicely into a political storm to push him out of the way (not that he'll be going anywhere too easily).

You try and do live tv conferences every day for 10 weeks and see how your composure holds up.

road_high

Utopia Parkway wrote: »

Oh no doubt they'll be a blame game between the politicians and NPHET coming somewhere down the line.

Yes can see it already with the nursing homes. Holohan and co will probably be hung out to dry at some stage when it's politically expedient to do so. Not that they'll suffer any consequences or anything.

alta stare

Jim Root wrote: »

You try and do live tv conferences every day for 10 weeks and see how your composure holds up.

If he cant handle the pressure then he needs to be moved on.

Cork Boy 53

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Already started and its getting more frequent, Leo saying at every chance the last few days if the data allows he'll speed things up, CMO comes out and crushes it later that evening. This weeks cabinet meeting will probably be fairly straight forward.

Its next weeks one where they've to make decisions on phase 2 and any other measures that'll be interesting.

That may well be the last cabinet meting with the current government in place. I doubt they will rock the boat before exiting the stage.

road_high

Jim Root wrote: »

You try and do live tv conferences every day for 10 weeks and see how your composure holds up.

I couldn't give a damn about his sensibilities. Is he doing it for free or something? If it's such a chore for him, push off and let someone (mildly competent) do it.

thebaz

bb1234567 wrote: »

Will it make you happy to believe it is the same as flu? You know, it won't change the actual reality. I don't care what the WHO or Tony say, I believe the results of antibody tests, which have determined the IFR to be around 1%.

I said some experts said it may be at .1 , you called me ignorant , thats what I took issue with -

CruelSummer

bb1234567 wrote: »

And those experts are completely wrong. It is far higher than flu, multiple large scale antibody studies have now determined it in the range of 1%

Can you explain how a virus with an IFR 'under 0.1%' could already have killed 0.2% of new York city's population when antibody tests showed only 20% of the city residents have had it?
Youd have to wonder at the ignorance of some posters to the reality of the situation around the world coming out with bs like this

Btw it's funny you're making fun of this person who apparently thought it was 10% IFR because like him who overestimated by a factor of ten you underestimate by a factor of 10, so you're equally wrong !

The antibody tests are not always accurate and with SARS 1, it took a few months for them to show in the majority of people. Saw some Oxford and other experts suggesting while they may not be accurate yet, they’re a good starting point.

RobitTV

Things are going to begin to unravel within the next two weeks. Holohan is now starting to get questioned more and Leo and the cabinet are starting to say different things.

The disagreements are starting to spill out publicly and i think there won't be any Christmas cards for Holohan this year.

Idbatterim

ItS a likely a once in a lifetime opportunity for hoolahan and his ilk. Of course he wants to milk it for all its worth. In his defence, hes being charged with reducing covid deaths . So no wonder hes hell bent on that it's the politicians who should be taking the broader implications into account, but are still in cloud cuckoo land. Saint Tony, its embarrassing, did he rid Ireland of the virus or something weeks ago ?

Cork Boy 53

road_high wrote: »

I couldn't give a damn about his sensibilities. Is he doing it for free or something? If it's such a chore for him, push off and let someone (mildly competent) do it.

Who would you suggest?