Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

is_that_so

manniot2 wrote: »

Headline in the Irish times "2m, summer camps and golf discussed by ministers" - the country facing collapse and these lads are worried about ****ing golf!

Leave them to it, it's likely to be one of their last meetings. School's nearly out and they are all a bit giddy. I will say I reckon the 2m guidance is just going to get more and more flak.

is_that_so

average_runner wrote: »

The numbers are under a 100 a day now, they need to move into phase 2 this weekend.


Need to relax two meters to 1 meter.


I was all for lockdown and did what it meant to do, but now time to move on

It's only 5 working days to phase 2, let it finish. For all the challenges in this pandemic getting out of it seems to be turning into the biggest one of all.

stephenjmcd

average_runner wrote: »

The numbers are under a 100 a day now, they need to move into phase 2 this weekend.


Need to relax two meters to 1 meter.


I was all for lockdown and did what it meant to do, but now time to move on

Yup agree, we were told at the start what we needed to do, we as a public did it, we bought the HSE and the government time to get whatever was needed in place. We flattened the curve , took the economic and social hits, some of us haven't seen family in months but now is the time to move on. Starting with phase 2 on the 8th and more businesses and services to be brought into that phase and for the love of god just scrap the 5k or 20k rules, it's just stupid.

paw patrol

average_runner wrote: »

The numbers are under a 100 a day now, they need to move into phase 2 this weekend.


Need to relax two meters to 1 meter.


I was all for lockdown and did what it meant to do, but now time to move on

from the journal today

Meanwhile, Health Minister Simon Harris has highlighted that 22,089 people have recovered from Covid-19, 1,083 are still sick, and 1,631 people have sadly died.

our lives are being messed about cos 1000 people are sick out of 4.5million.
that's insane

hopefully the next announcement will contain better news

the kelt

Arghus wrote: »

He also said things are under constant review. It all depends what happens in the future.

17 deaths and 73 new cases today. He couldn't lift restrictions today with those numbers.

Pitch n Putt wrote: »

Why are we still persisting with giving daily deaths when the data is actually incorrect?

Take yesterday for instance 17 additional deaths reported at the briefing. This is the number people see flashed across the screen along with the total number of cases.

The reality is 7 of those deaths are from March and only being reported now for some strange reason and 3 from Monday and 4 from Tuesday. The 24 thousand odd cases are a total since the beginning with most fully recovered.


If we could report the proper way it might alleviate some of the unnecessary fear factor that’s been created around this thing.


If it read as

3 deaths yesterday and additional 73 cases with x amount of cases currently active whatever that is roughly 4 thousand.

Why do these people and the media insist on sensationalist reporting.

With regards Dr Tony someone definitely questioned his opinion and he came across badly yesterday evening with his ignorant bully boy tactics

“How dare you plebs question me “

Simply put reading it out how you put it doesnt convey enough fear in people and get the reaction he wants.

What he wants is the reaction in the post above, headline number jumps out and immediate response is, cant be easing restrictions now.

People by their very nature have a short attention span, feed them bullet points and headline figures and they gobble them up without looking at the finer details. It plays to the simple masses to get a message across rather than the facts.

Yep and your're right, we were told on here about how informative these press conferences are and how Tony once told a joke, haa haa haa yet i sense now that pressure is starting to come on we are returning to "im going to threaten ordinary people, Mr Cevical Check Scandal Tony"

Ginger n Lemon

average_runner wrote: »

The numbers are under a 100 a day now, they need to move into phase 2 this weekend.


Need to relax two meters to 1 meter.


I was all for lockdown and did what it meant to do, but now time to move on

Fully agreed. Very happy to see you change your mind and lean towards re opening of the country quicker.

Sweet.Science

Poor Dr Tony

As a wise 2 faced man once said

You either die a hero or live long enough to become the villain

average_runner

is_that_so wrote: »

It's only 5 working days to phase 2, let it finish. For all the challenges in this pandemic getting out of it seems to be turning into the biggest one of all.

Why, Europe is proving that we can move quicker. The evidence is now there so I believe Phase 2 on Monday and Phase 3 by 15th of June and fully open end of June the latest.


Kids are all out playing now and I won't tell them to stop. Now they are keeping their distance but the parents are agreeing to relax it to 1 meter from today

average_runner

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Fully agreed. Very happy to see you change your mind and lean towards re opening of the country quicker.

I always said once it was under a 100 we can move quicker. Once Europe provided evidence that it was under control we can move quicker.


Sometimes its better to play safe and see how it pans out, we did that.

Nermal

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/norway-health-chief-lockdown-was-not-needed-to-tame-covid

"Our assessment now, and I find that there is a broad consensus in relation to the reopening, was that one could probably achieve the same effect – and avoid part of the unfortunate repercussions – by not closing. But, instead, staying open with precautions to stop the spread."

prunudo

Big change in the narrative the last couple days, much more talk on the radio and social media about opening up quicker. It seems people are coming around to what has been said on this thread the last 3 weeks.
Even had a mate acknowledge that enough is enough after hearing it on the radio this morning albeit he still maintains Leo and the lads are doing a great job.

gmisk

is_that_so wrote: »

It's only 5 working days to phase 2, let it finish. For all the challenges in this pandemic getting out of it seems to be turning into the biggest one of all.

Totally agree. If things are going well shorten the time between phases, but we are practically at phase 2.

A lot of people here seem to be ruling out a spike or second wave. But it is clearly possible look at south Korea, they have had to re-implement lockdown measures in Seoul for at least two more weeks after the biggest spike in infections in two months.

Ginger n Lemon

Nermal wrote: »

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/norway-health-chief-lockdown-was-not-needed-to-tame-covid

"Our assessment now, and I find that there is a broad consensus in relation to the reopening, was that one could probably achieve the same effect – and avoid part of the unfortunate repercussions – by not closing. But, instead, staying open with precautions to stop the spread."

Very good article, from Norway, health department

Norway health chief: lockdown was not needed to tame Covid

But the Norwegian public health authority has published a report with a striking conclusion: the virus was never spreading as fast as had been feared and was already on the way out when lockdown was ordered. ‘It looks as if the effective reproduction rate had already dropped to around 1.1 when the most comprehensive measures were implemented on 12 March, and that there would not be much to push it down below 1… We have seen in retrospect that the infection was on its way down.’

gmisk

Nermal wrote: »

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/norway-health-chief-lockdown-was-not-needed-to-tame-covid

"Our assessment now, and I find that there is a broad consensus in relation to the reopening, was that one could probably achieve the same effect – and avoid part of the unfortunate repercussions – by not closing. But, instead, staying open with precautions to stop the spread."

I would rather not click on that conservative rag...the fact Dominic Cummings wife is an editor should tell you all you need to know about their agenda.

Widescreen

The big elephant in the room really is that the test, track and trace thing here is not good enough yet. They are still talking 3 days between getting a test and then the result I think.That is not quick enough to isolate the relevant chain of people quick enough.

This is probably the thing that is stopping restrictions being lifted quicker.

If they just lift things without having that in place, we would be back to square one again in double quick time.

Ginger n Lemon

Reality is always hitting hardest in the morningtime

"The Republic’s economy is on track to shrink by 12.4 per cent this year, marking the largest annual slump in its history, as the Covid-19 pandemic wreaks havoc on households, firms and government finances, according to the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)."

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/irish-economy-to-contract-by-12-esri-forecasts-1.4264165?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Ffinancial-services%2Firish-economy-to-contract-by-12-esri-forecasts-1.4264165

I am not going to be a fool and say thats all caused by pandemic lol. Half of the slump is caused by awful incompetent government who have made a lot of wrong decisions and persist on making this a 5 month lockdown vs 2 months lockdowns in other Eu countries. In comparison - Denmarks GDP set to fall 5.4%, thats your casual 7% DIFFERENCE IN GDP FALL.

One country has opened primary schools on 14th of April, barbers 21st of April, rest of stuff mid May fully opened bar large public gatherings.

The other called Denmark "experimenting with children", cancelled final year exams (are we the only country on the planet to do this?) closed construction that is outdoor work where infection does not spread meaningfully at all, imposed 5 month effective lockdown for pubs, cinemas, gyms, barbers, crashed economy to -12.4% GDP.

Lets take this article as a reminder that no, not every country is screwed cus of pandemic, some are screwed 2 - 2.5 times worse than other because of incompetence of the government in place.

mikekerry

what gets me is why the news reports have on their main headline every day the number of people that have died from covid as well as no of new new infections it's just scaring people. if they did this with e.g. cancer it would also scare people.
can you imagine the news headlines every day x people have cancer and x new cases, x people have covid and x new cases.
are they going to continue doing this for as long as it's around?

Nermal

gmisk wrote: »

I would rather not click on that conservative rag...the fact Dominic Cummings wife is an editor should tell you all you need to know about their agenda.

Play the ball, not the man. Read it in Norwegian if you prefer.

https://www.fhi.no/contentassets/c9e459cd7cc24991810a0d28d7803bd0/notat-om-risiko-og-respons-2020-05-05.pdf

seamus

Hopefully yesterday's numbers were just a blip; a small cluster of cases or something. It's seems unlikely to be anything but, as there's no real correlation with anything. Cases are still under 100 anyway.

I do think Tony Holohan is playing the safe game because you can't make mistakes if you don't take risks.

I expect them to bring forward quite a few of the measures from phase 3 into phase 2 and then plan to shorten phase 2, to maybe two weeks. As I've said many times through this, people will just do whatever they think is the right thing to do regardless of the guidelines. So the Government's response needs to be broadly tracking the public expectations or people will just go right off the reservation.

stephenjmcd

seamus wrote: »

Hopefully yesterday's numbers were just a blip; a small cluster of cases or something. It's seems unlikely to be anything but, as there's no real correlation with anything. Cases are still under 100 anyway.

I do think Tony Holohan is playing the safe game because you can't make mistakes if you don't take risks.

I expect them to bring forward quite a few of the measures from phase 3 into phase 2 and then plan to shorten phase 2, to maybe two weeks. As I've said many times through this, people will just do whatever they think is the right thing to do regardless of the guidelines. So the Government's response needs to be broadly tracking the public expectations or people will just go right off the reservation.

They changed the reporting time for cases starting yesterday so wouldn't read too much into it. What we get this evening will be 24hrs up to midnight just gone.

What we got on Wednesday was only for a 13hr period so it's not a big amount taking into account the change in reporting.

Likewise the reporting of 17 deaths is shocking as a headline but read into it and 7 go back as far as March.

The people moved ahead of the government in shutting down, its clear they're moving ahead of them in opening up. Personally I've said it here a few times, move a few things into phase 2, merge 3&4 together and then bring 5 forward into July.

AdamD

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Poor Dr Tony

As a wise 2 faced man once said

You either die a hero or live long enough to become the villain

I think somehow, amongst all the chaos, people forgot that he was a public villain long before anyone had heard of Covid-19.

Hurrache

alta stare wrote: »

If he cant handle the pressure then he needs to be moved on.

LOL, he's been doing it perfectly for weeks during the worse global pandemic in recent history, even returning a day or two after falling ill.

It's cracked to suggest that he's about to break under political pressure stemming from the will of the people riding atop the turning tide.

People now turning their frustration, people who apparently know better by the way, on a public servant because they can get no leeway with members of government. I wonder who it will be next?

facehugger99

seamus wrote: »

I expect them to bring forward quite a few of the measures from phase 3 into phase 2 and then plan to shorten phase 2, to maybe two weeks.

Your expectations seem totally out of line with the ultra-conservative, arse-covering evidence so far.

NegativeCreep

Widescreen wrote: »

The big elephant in the room really is that the test, track and trace thing here is not good enough yet. They are still talking 3 days between getting a test and then the result I think.That is not quick enough to isolate the relevant chain of people quick enough.

This is probably the thing that is stopping restrictions being lifted quicker.

If they just lift things without having that in place, we would be back to square one again in double quick time.

I agree. But how long are we willing to wait for them to get it up to scratch? It’s been 2.5 months if not more.

Widescreen

An analogy I use here is that if you take all the cars off the road for six months you won't have any crashes, but the underlying problem doesn't get resolved because when you get back on the road the crashes will resume. But you do try to make it as safe as possible to drive.

With this virus if they just get that testing sorted (3 days is a joke) I think we can get on with relative normality.

I think our leaders are really making a mess of this now though, after decent enough initial reaction to the problem.

Doctor Jimbob

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Reality is always hitting hardest in the morningtime

"The Republic’s economy is on track to shrink by 12.4 per cent this year, marking the largest annual slump in its history, as the Covid-19 pandemic wreaks havoc on households, firms and government finances, according to the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)."

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/irish-economy-to-contract-by-12-esri-forecasts-1.4264165?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Ffinancial-services%2Firish-economy-to-contract-by-12-esri-forecasts-1.4264165

I am not going to be a fool and say thats all caused by pandemic lol. Half of the slump is caused by awful incompetent government who have made a lot of wrong decisions and persist on making this a 5 month lockdown vs 2 months lockdowns in other Eu countries. In comparison - Denmarks GDP set to fall 5.4%, thats your casual 7% DIFFERENCE IN GDP FALL.

One country has opened primary schools on 14th of April, barbers 21st of April, rest of stuff mid May fully opened bar large public gatherings.

The other called Denmark "experimenting with children", cancelled final year exams (are we the only country on the planet to do this?) closed construction that is outdoor work where infection does not spread meaningfully at all, imposed 5 month effective lockdown for pubs, cinemas, gyms, barbers, crashed economy to -12.4% GDP.

Lets take this article as a reminder that no, not every country is screwed cus of pandemic, some are screwed 2 - 2.5 times worse than other because of incompetence of the government in place.

I don't understand the way you and some other posters dismiss any horror stories related to the virus as fearmongering yet are willing to lap up every single economic horror story. Can economists not get things wrong as well or is that just scientists?

ednwireland

seamus wrote: »

Hopefully yesterday's numbers were just a blip; a small cluster of cases or something. It's seems unlikely to be anything but, as there's no real correlation with anything. Cases are still under 100 anyway.

deaths going back to 21st march according to news this morning didnt see the breakdown

Hurrache

mikekerry wrote: »

what gets me is why the news reports have on their main headline every day the number of people that have died from covid as well as no of new new infections it's just scaring people. if they did this with e.g. cancer it would also scare people.
can you imagine the news headlines every day x people have cancer and x new cases, x people have covid and x new cases.
are they going to continue doing this for as long as it's around?

Can you imagine if they didn't release the numbers provided at daily press briefings specifically on Covid-19? You'd be complaining that they're scaring people by keeping the numbers secret.

Breezin

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Very good article, from Norway, health department

Norway health chief: lockdown was not needed to tame Covid

But the Norwegian public health authority has published a report with a striking conclusion: the virus was never spreading as fast as had been feared and was already on the way out when lockdown was ordered. ‘It looks as if the effective reproduction rate had already dropped to around 1.1 when the most comprehensive measures were implemented on 12 March, and that there would not be much to push it down below 1… We have seen in retrospect that the infection was on its way down.’

That is an astonishing admission. I wonder will we ever achieve a similar level of candour here.

Ginger n Lemon

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

I don't understand the way you and some other posters dismiss any horror stories related to the virus as fearmongering yet are willing to lap up every single economic horror story. Can economists not get things wrong as well or is that just scientists?

What are the "horror" stories relating to the virus? it kills 1 year old babies? Those horror stories?

or mass graves in Brazil are "horror" stories? The ones that are used for non covid deaths but were filmed anyways to give you a fright watching RTE?

And no - economists dont get things wrong lol. When Eason lay off 150 staff, Ryanair lay off 3000 + staff, Aerlingus 900 + staff, Dublin airport 1000+, Bewleys 110 staff it gives you a good indicator that -12% GDP is very accurate, could be much worse when govt start releasing their budget shortfalls later on or banks start asking for bailout in September.

the list goes on and on and on and that is factual proof.

You have banks being downgraded on credit rating to "negative". What do you think that is, a compliment? A thumbs up?

I just cant believe posters here are treating covid as ebola and dismiss economic news as "scare mongering".