Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

KerryConnor

That's because cancer isn't highly infectious

mikekerry wrote: »

what gets me is why the news reports have on their main headline every day the number of people that have died from covid as well as no of new new infections it's just scaring people. if they did this with e.g. cancer it would also scare people.
can you imagine the news headlines every day x people have cancer and x new cases, x people have covid and x new cases.
are they going to continue doing this for as long as it's around?

Doctor Jimbob

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

What are the "horror" stories relating to the virus? it kills 1 year old babies? Those horror stories?

or mass graves in Brazil are "horror" stories? The ones that are used for non covid deaths but were filmed anyways to give you a fright watching RTE?

And no - economists dont get things wrong lol. When Eason lay off 150 staff, Ryanair lay off 3000 + staff, Aerlingus 900 + staff, Dublin airport 1000+, Bewleys 110 staff it gives you a good indicator that -12% GDP is very accurate, could be much worse when govt start releasing their budget shortfalls later on or banks start asking for bailout in September.

the list goes on and on and on and that is factual proof.

You have banks being downgraded on credit rating to "negative". What do you think that is, a compliment? A thumbs up?

I just cant believe posters here are treating covid as ebola and dismiss economic news as "scare mongering".

Of course economists get things wrong. What kind of ridiculous statement is that?

Ginger n Lemon

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Of course economists get things wrong. What kind of ridiculous statement is that?

They didnt get it wrong this time pal. You ll realise this in October.

average_runner

prunudo wrote: »

Big change in the narrative the last couple days, much more talk on the radio and social media about opening up quicker. It seems people are coming around to what has been said on this thread the last 3 weeks.
Even had a mate acknowledge that enough is enough after hearing it on the radio this morning albeit he still maintains Leo and the lads are doing a great job.

Three weeks ago we were pretty high in the numbers, now its dropping below a 100, we need to move things on. If it goes up we can step back again.

AdamD

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/ireland-should-take-calculated-risk-in-greater-easing-of-covid-19-restrictions-1.4264649

Pressure certainly building to ease restrictions. Hopefully hear more on June 5th

Breezin

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

I don't understand the way you and some other posters dismiss any horror stories related to the virus as fearmongering yet are willing to lap up every single economic horror story. Can economists not get things wrong as well or is that just scientists?

They aren't all economic horror stories.

• Cancer patients missing treatment.
• Myriad other illnesses going untreated.
• Isolated elderly breaking bones because they can't get exercise and physiotherapy.
• People not being able to see family and loved ones.
• Mental health issues, including suicide. This will continue long-term with economic effects.

I am not in any of these categories. I just want to be free, and I don't apologise for it. I absolutely hate the fact of being tethered and living in an open prison. This is not a whimsical feeling: it is the very basis for civilised democratic society.

But please don't tell us there are no horror stories beyond covid and the economy.

Doctor Jimbob

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

They didnt get it wrong this time pal. You ll realise this in October.

A couple of months ago the threads on here were full of people claiming 10-20% fatality rates with total certainty. That was shown to be nonsense. Now people are predicting economic doom with total certainty. I think that will look like nonsense in hindsight as well.

I'm not denying there will be economic impacts. I just don't think it will be as severe as a lot seem to think.

average_runner

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

They didnt get it wrong this time pal. You ll realise this in October.

Economists gets it wrong 95/100. It was like the housing bubble burst. For years they were saying it would happen, of course it had to at some stage and then they claim they were right.


If Corona doesn't come back, we be out of the recession this time next year.
Companies are rearing to go again, the whole 5G investment hasn't even fully started yet.

is_that_so

AdamD wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/ireland-should-take-calculated-risk-in-greater-easing-of-covid-19-restrictions-1.4264649

Pressure certainly building to ease restrictions. Hopefully hear more on June 5th

O'Callaghan will be part of the government, maybe as soon as next week! Any changes will not come at a day's notice. We can expect any alterations announced at 1-2 weeks distance.

crossman47

road_high wrote: »

And we shouldn’t have non democratically people deciding national policy on issues of grave national importance...but here we are

We don't. Holohan is there to give advice. The government is there to make decisions, whether they know it or not. But they are hiding behind the CMO and will throw him under a bus if it goes wrong. No wonder hes being careful.

is_that_so

Breezin wrote: »

They aren't all economic horror stories.

• Cancer patients missing treatment.
• Myriad other illnesses going untreated.
• Isolated elderly breaking bones because they can't get exercise and physiotherapy.
• People not being able to see family and loved ones.
• Mental health issues, including suicide. This will continue long-term with economic effects.

I am not in any of these categories. I just want to be free, and I don't apologise for it. I absolutely hate the fact of being tethered and living in an open prison. This is not a whimsical feeling: it is the very basis for civilised democratic society.

But please don't tell us there are no horror stories beyond covid and the economy.

alta stare

Hurrache wrote: »

LOL, he's been doing it perfectly for weeks during the worse global pandemic in recent history, even returning a day or two after falling ill.

It's cracked to suggest that he's about to break under political pressure stemming from the will of the people riding atop the turning tide.

People now turning their frustration, people who apparently know better by the way, on a public servant because they can get no leeway with members of government. I wonder who it will be next?

Sorry no offence but I read Lol and I gave up reading the rest. It couldnt be worth replying to if you are the type of person who puts that into a sentence.

is_that_so

crossman47 wrote: »

We don't. Holohan is there to give advice. The government is there to make decisions, whether they know it or not. But they are hiding behind the CMO and will throw him under a bus if it goes wrong. No wonder hes being careful.

They are really hiding behind wait and see next week, an eminently sensible approach IMO.

Ginger n Lemon

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

A couple of months ago the threads on here were full of people claiming 10-20% fatality rates with total certainty. That was shown to be nonsense. Now people are predicting economic doom with total certainty. I think that will look like nonsense in hindsight as well.

I'm not denying there will be economic impacts. I just don't think it will be as severe as a lot seem to think.

I really really hope you are right. But as is, the news are very bleak and banks are suffering badly as well and we dont exactly have the strongest or most capitalised banks on the planet

"Mortgage payment-break numbers rise to 78,000
Total of 140,000 mortgage, personal and business loans now paused temporarily"

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/mortgage-payment-break-numbers-rise-to-78-000-1.4264085?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Ffinancial-services%2Fmortgage-payment-break-numbers-rise-to-78-000-1.4264085

The problem with banks having issues is that they ll need a bailout much more significant than giving 350 to average joe for 6 - 8 weeks.

But as i said, i really hope you turn out to be correct and i ll be the first one to admit that -12% gdp was nonsense prediction.

PS however positive we may wish to be, the very reason EU are preparing this 500-750bn "recovery fund" suggests that EU countries are in big trouble, and economists predictions of -12% GDP doesnt feel like a "wild guess" in light of this.

Micky 32

More from FF:

“ Fianna Fáil's justice spokesperson said the Government needs to expedite the lifting of restrictions before 10 August given that Spain and Italy are lifting restrictions fully by June.”

Ginger n Lemon

Anywho enough of the doom and gloom, for now :pac:

"BELGIAN SCHOOLS OPEN FURTHER

Belgium will move to the next stage of reopening schools at the beginning of June, Prime Minister Sophie Wilmès announced late on Wednesday after coordinating with the regional governments, which are responsible for education.

Classes resumed on May 18 for certain grades at both primary and secondary schools. As of June 2, nursery schools will fully reopen, Wilmès announced. Social distancing will not be required. Children of all grades at primary schools will resume classes as of June 8."

Belgium has highest deaths per million in EU.

H O W? How is this possible?

Stark

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

H O W? How is this possible?

Belgians don't love their children the way Irish people do :pac:

ZX7R

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Think he knows it really. He got very defensive yesterday evening, even mentioning how anyone who travels abroad for non essential travel is breaking the law and this was in reference to travel in July. Last time I checked he wasn't in a position to tell anyone the law of the land.

They can pull out as many surveys as they want backing themselves up, doesn't change what people are seeing out and about

Harris was questioned yesterday about the essential travel and how he would implement a mandatory isolation for travelers.
His response was quite interesting the legality of mandatory isolation and the endorsement of a mandatory essential travel only looked to be legally unattainable.
About time that he amitted it.

Breezin

is_that_so wrote: »

I suppose there will always be people who like being tied up.

Ginger n Lemon

Stark wrote: »

Belgians don't love their children the way Irish people do :pac:

The mind boggling part is "social distancing wont be required"

Something is going on, some German states want to go do away with social distancing also on the 6th of June. It seems like these EU countries are either mad or know something that we dont.

polesheep

average_runner wrote: »

Why, Europe is proving that we can move quicker. The evidence is now there so I believe Phase 2 on Monday and Phase 3 by 15th of June and fully open end of June the latest.


Kids are all out playing now and I won't tell them to stop. Now they are keeping their distance but the parents are agreeing to relax it to 1 meter from today

The kids around me have been enjoying an unofficial summer camp every morning for the past few weeks. No social distancing and no sky falling in. It's a joy to see.

The_Brood

Absolute and complete madness to keep restrictions in place to July, let alone August. Is Ireland aiming to become the lockdown island of doom while the rest of Europe gets back to life?

bb1234567

JRant wrote: »

1 in every 500 is 0.2%, that's a long way from the 1% figure you were mentioning.

I've looked at some sites and the 0.2% figure seems to be correct. 198 deaths per 100,000 in NYC, so around 0.198%.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109867/coronavirus-death-rates-by-age-new-york-city/

Oh my good god.Presumably you are deliberately misunderstanding to derail discussion. 0.2% of the population of New York city dying from it is not the same as the virus having an IFR of 0.2%. That would only be true if 100% of the New York city population had contracted.

20% of the city have antibodies, resulting in 16,000 deaths. If 100% caught it, presumably there would be 5x times that number of deaths, 80,000 deaths, which is 1% of the city population.

Anyway, clearly most people on this thread just don't want to accept reality. They can believe it is similar to flu if they wish, but it will not make any difference to the reality of future planning in relation to this virus which will be based on the virus having an IFR of 1%, because that is what several antibody tests have determined

ZX7R

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Reality is always hitting hardest in the morningtime

"The Republic’s economy is on track to shrink by 12.4 per cent this year, marking the largest annual slump in its history, as the Covid-19 pandemic wreaks havoc on households, firms and government finances, according to the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)."

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/irish-economy-to-contract-by-12-esri-forecasts-1.4264165?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Ffinancial-services%2Firish-economy-to-contract-by-12-esri-forecasts-1.4264165

I am not going to be a fool and say thats all caused by pandemic lol. Half of the slump is caused by awful incompetent government who have made a lot of wrong decisions and persist on making this a 5 month lockdown vs 2 months lockdowns in other Eu countries. In comparison - Denmarks GDP set to fall 5.4%, thats your casual 7% DIFFERENCE IN GDP FALL.

One country has opened primary schools on 14th of April, barbers 21st of April, rest of stuff mid May fully opened bar large public gatherings.

The other called Denmark "experimenting with children", cancelled final year exams (are we the only country on the planet to do this?) closed construction that is outdoor work where infection does not spread meaningfully at all, imposed 5 month effective lockdown for pubs, cinemas, gyms, barbers, crashed economy to -12.4% GDP.

Lets take this article as a reminder that no, not every country is screwed cus of pandemic, some are screwed 2 - 2.5 times worse than other because of incompetence of the government in place.

You might be interested to know Poland are entering there final stage in open up on Saturday 30 may.
From Saturday masks will not be required outside anymore.
From the 6th of June
Cinemas,
Theatre's,
Swimming pools,
And qyms will reopen.
Gatherings of 150 will also be permitted
Prime minister
Mateusz Molawiecki stated.
He expects to have there economy return to fully functioning by July at the latest.

RollieFingers

https://www.thejournal.ie/poll-government-handling-coronavirus-5109737-May2020/

71% of people happy with how the government have been handling the Covid-19 crisis.

polesheep

RollieFingers wrote: »

https://www.thejournal.ie/poll-government-handling-coronavirus-5109737-May2020/

71% of people happy with how the government have been handling the Covid-19 crisis.

Correction, 71% of The Journal readers are happy.

prunudo

average_runner wrote: »

Three weeks ago we were pretty high in the numbers, now its dropping below a 100, we need to move things on. If it goes up we can step back again.

3 weeks ago plenty of us in here were saying the plan was too slow, that it made sense to be opening up garden centres etc. earlier. Many predicted that there would be issues with the slow road map but we were shouted down as being granny killers etc. The fact that it has been suppressed in the majority of the country for weeks now is evidence that this disease is not a community issue but is largely convined to health care settings. Once that was obvious the narrative then changed to 2nd wave and trying to continue the scaremongering.

seamus

RollieFingers wrote: »

https://www.thejournal.ie/poll-government-handling-coronavirus-5109737-May2020/

71% of people happy with how the government have been handling the Covid-19 crisis.

And on a journal article, that's no mean feat. It goes to show that online platforms are considerably out of whack with the man on the street. The actual approval ratings are likely higher than that again, despite the vocal minorities online.

RugbyLad11

AdamD wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/ireland-should-take-calculated-risk-in-greater-easing-of-covid-19-restrictions-1.4264649

Pressure certainly building to ease restrictions. Hopefully hear more on June 5th

He is talking some sense

Micky 32

ZX7R wrote: »

Harris was questioned yesterday about the essential travel and how he would implement a mandatory isolation for travelers.
His response was quite interesting the legality of mandatory isolation and the endorsement of a mandatory essential travel only looked to be legally unattainable.
About time that he amitted it.

He’s doing his best to get around it. I think there are proposals on the table for the cabinet ( so i read on the RTE app), he seems optimistic to get it through.