Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

road_high

facehugger99 wrote: »

Jesus Christ - what fcuking world are these clowns living in?

We’ll see...if they’re forced into an imf programme or similar they’ll either be reversed or worse. Donohoe is on planet zog, I heard him on Newstalk this morning . Won’t take much for the markets to turn negative on Ireland then it’ll be a very rapid snowball

is_that_so

facehugger99 wrote: »

Jesus Christ - what fcuking world are these clowns living in?

One where industrial unrest at an agreement being reneged on would most likely follow a cut and probably legal action. It may also have been a price of the programme for government.

road_high

thelad95 wrote: »

Where could one avail of such a service?

Loads doing it in the QT pal. If your regular barber has a Facebook page just text them and see what’s possible

titan18

stephenjmcd wrote: »

It was behind a paywall last night so how could I read it. If it's not behind one now then fair enough.

What I copied in was the opening paragraph with no paywall.

He did more interviews this morning basically saying the same. Like it or not people will travel through July and August regardless

It's not behind one ATM anyway. Also says

It is understood the changes could apply from August or earlier, although there is no clarity on this at present.

A senior Government source said Mr Varadkar stressed the envisaged timetable is “months not weeks”, with everything depending on how the virus develops in the coming weeks

Gregor Samsa

suicide_circus wrote: »

thanks for that. i'd imagine its very few, i the UK its 500 people.

what's the argument against focusing on restrictions and cocooning for those in high risk categories?

Well, lets not forget that this is really what's being done - albeit not at the pace some people want. The idea is that restrictions are lifted for most people, with hygiene measures in place, and the vulnerable are still encouraged to cocoon. This is what's currently happening. You may not agree with the pace.

The first argument against a sudden and absolute lifting of restrictions, with cocooning for the high risk, is that not everyone who is high risk knows they're high risk. Plus cocooning is not an absolute guarantee that the vulnerable will not catch it - many vulnerable people rely on some form of close proximity contact with other people to get through their daily lives. So protecting the vulnerable requires more than just cocooning. The lower the rate out in the community, the safer they are even with cocooning.

The third issue is that death is not the be-all and end-all of the negative effects of this virus on society. Most people who get it don't die. Most people who get really sick from it don't die. But the people who get really sick from it will clog up our hospitals and healthcare systems, even if the don't die. So the focus on deaths is a bit of a distraction - there's a massive societal cost to an overloaded health system that non-vulnerable people will contribute to too that has to be taken into account.

Obviously all these arguments can be contested in some shape or form, or simply dismissed as not worth the cost.

I can't comment on imaginary numbers.

Roger_007

JPCN1 wrote: »

Examiner reporting that Donohue has confirmed Public Sector pay rise in October.

Right under article reporting Minister McHugh saying schools may not open in Sept.

We need a new government/election asap as these idiots have completely lost the plot.

Yeah, we need SF to get into government. They will prolong the lockdown and the dishing out of more money that we don’t have until we run out of lenders.
That would be great..........wouldn’t it?

stephenjmcd

titan18 wrote: »

It's not behind one ATM anyway. Also says

It is understood the changes could apply from August or earlier, although there is no clarity on this at present.

A senior Government source said Mr Varadkar stressed the envisaged timetable is “months not weeks”, with everything depending on how the virus develops in the coming weeks

The current legislation will quickly become a joke anyway, fill in the form and off you go, should be have been done months ago.

Anyway this'll all get pushed over to a new government more than likely

Atlantic Dawn

Outside healthcare supermarkets should be ground zero at the moment for risk of catching the virus, I've not heard of a single case of any hospitalisation of a member of staff at a supermarket in Ireland. No union representing retail staff has outlined any hospitalisation or deaths of the staff they represent here.

newuser99999

JPCN1 wrote: »

Examiner reporting that Donohue has confirmed Public Sector pay rise in October.

Right under article reporting Minister McHugh saying schools may not open in Sept.

We need a new government/election asap as these idiots have completely lost the plot.

I’d rather not have pedophile apologists and murderers as our government THANKS.

Mebuntu

Catching up on the overnight posts this comment (following on from the full list of medical experts posted in this thread) struck me.

dubdaymo wrote: »

Thanks for posting the full list of "experts". If, as you infer, these people had better insight into a deadly virus they would have stopped travel to/from virus-ravaged N. Italy, stopped 2,500 Italians coming to Dublin for a weekend partying, clubbing and booze-up for a non-existent rugby match and then also stopped thousands of Irish going to Cheltenham to bring even more virus back here. Not to mention the nursing home fiasco.

They had one vital ingredient missing - common sense. They made all the wrong decisions then so what makes you believe they are not doing the same all over again?

There was a fatal absence of common sense in the beginning so drastic measures had to be taken. I don't think anyone has a problem with that.

Everyone knows we can't just rush back to normality but, once again, the absence of common sense in decision-making is evident. I would add that a lack of consistency is also contributing to the anger and frustration.

On the statistics side there is one we have never been given. With all of the tracing and tracking of victims and their contacts we have not been told how many were infected and/or died from the foolishly allowed events mentioned above.

It is easy to come to the conclusion that ass-covering is the primary aim of all concerned at the top.

Gregor Samsa

suicide_circus wrote: »

holy god, if thats accurate we are overcooking this situation to a preposterous extent.

That opinion depends on what relative value you put on the lives of the vulnerable.

Just remember that these are the statistics with lockdown in place, so it doesn't make sense to use them to say that lockdown shouldn't have taken place. They could be evidence that lockdown worked, in the sense that it kept the deaths low.

growleaves

It is completely UK-centric and the UK has not exactly been a good role model in much of this.

The article you mean? Yes it is. I'm interested in perspectives from all countries, and I've posted articles translated from Greek and Spanish as well.

Especially since one of the things people can't get their head around is how so many international governments and media could be wrong at the same time. It blows people's minds thinking about it. Yet it happened in the past as well - world wars, eugenics etc.

Was it the right call? Probably, in light of the novelty of the virus, its not being spotted and transmissibility.

It was the wrong call. 'Novelty', fear of the unknown, isn't a good excuse for reckless and unproven policies.

Will we do it differently next time? Yes, and we'll do a better job of it.

If in 7 months time you are presented with climate models predicting mass death and Youtube videos of extreme weather events in a European city and you are asked to support carbon rationing, travel restrictions, shutdowns, electronic monitoring etc. what will you say?

I can see the 'next time' coming around the corner soon. It looks to me like all the same people who jumped for every wrong choice this time will jump for every wrong choice again.

Hurrache

I actually thought this was a joke thread at first, but apparently it's being taken seriously by some.

paw patrol

Mebuntu wrote: »

Everyone knows we can't just rush back to normality .

who is this everyone?
I certainly want normality to start immediately . like now.

titan18

stephenjmcd wrote: »

The current legislation will quickly become a joke anyway, fill in the form and off you go, should be have been done months ago.

Anyway this'll all get pushed over to a new government more than likely

I assume we'll have the legislation in place until the UK drops theirs. Otherwise we'll just become a dropping off point for anyone wanting to go to there

LeeroyJ.

Roger_007 wrote: »

Yeah, we need SF to get into government. They will prolong the lockdown and the dishing out of more money that we don’t have until we run out of lenders.
That would be great..........wouldn’t it?

I love just pulling facts out of thin air.
We should get the European Union to replace our Government.
They will end the lockdown and rebuild our economy in a green sustainable way.
True story. See how easy that is.

Fred Cryton

Gregor Samsa wrote: »

As of May 7, 14% of deaths in ICUs didn't have an underlying medical condition. That's 10 people (as of that date, 69 people had died in ICU). If you extrapolate that out to all deaths (today, 1,639), that's 229 deaths. That stat doesn't factor in age.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0507/1137125-coronavirus-analysis/

Straight answer to your question is we don't know.

14% of ICU deaths didn't have an underlying condition.


What proportion of those 14% were over 80 years of age?



We need to know the answer to that. In other words when you control for both age and underlying medical condition, the chances of a young person without any medical condition ending up dead from the virus is vanishingly low.

Markcheese

After the "lockdown" was introduced ,the meat processing industry kept going much as before .. it's an industry that is (supposedly) used to wearing ppe ,and basically covid 19 was rampant through the plants ,( I don't have the numbers ) , so In effect this is what happens if you just drop all restrictions..
We're relaxing the restrictions gradually ... That'll be tweaked in some aspects , don't just dump all restrictions

Iscreamkone

It would be hard to catch coronavirus now even if you tried.

Open everything - wear masks for a few weeks and wash hands.
Vulnerable people need to protect themselves.
Keep an eye out for clusters - but for the vast majority, this thing is all over.

Deeper Blue

The use of the term "We're not there yet" by the likes of Varadkar and Harris is absolutely infuriating.

What does "there" mean?? 0 cases?

These lads are living in a fantasy world and to me it looks like they're scared ****less of making any sort of decisive decision.

For example, how is it that schools are either reopened or about to reopen in most countries yet they're saying they might not open here in ****ing September??

**** sake

SuperSean11

I heard from a neighbors cousin who’s a doctor that it’ll be grand.

setanta1984

NDWC wrote: »

The use of the term "We're not there yet" by the likes of Varadkar and Harris is absolutely infuriating.

What does "there" mean?? 0 cases?

It makes me want tear my eyes out when I see that.

How has nobody challenged them to define what "there" is? They should not be left off the hook by any interviewer until they can say what that is.
How can anyone take anything they say seriously or trust them when they won't make this clear? We're being treated with utter contempt with official lines like that.

Harpon

Gregor Samsa wrote: »

Well, lets not forget that this is really what's being done - albeit not at the pace some people want. The idea is that restrictions are lifted for most people, with hygiene measures in place, and the vulnerable are still encouraged to cocoon. This is what's currently happening. You may not agree with the pace.

The first argument against a sudden and absolute lifting of restrictions, with cocooning for the high risk, is that not everyone who is high risk knows they're high risk. Plus cocooning is not an absolute guarantee that the vulnerable will not catch it - many vulnerable people rely on some form of close proximity contact with other people to get through their daily lives. So protecting the vulnerable requires more than just cocooning. The lower the rate out in the community, the safer they are even with cocooning.

The third issue is that death is not the be-all and end-all of the negative effects of this virus on society. Most people who get it don't die. Most people who get really sick from it don't die. But the people who get really sick from it will clog up our hospitals and healthcare systems, even if the don't die. So the focus on deaths is a bit of a distraction - there's a massive societal cost to an overloaded health system that non-vulnerable people will contribute to too that has to be taken into account.

Obviously all these arguments can be contested in some shape or form, or simply dismissed as not worth the cost.

I can't comment on imaginary numbers.

Are you calling the death stats and hospital admission stats from countries which have been out of lockdown for a while now imaginary numbers? You think there has been a huge spike in the likes of germany, Denmark, France and Italy, but they are lying about it and somehow their overflowing hospitals and massive death rates hasn’t leaked to the press? If you really believe that then off to the conspiracy forum for you.

wench

South Korea, the poster child for handling this pandemic well, may have to reimpose restrictions as cases increase.

They lifted their restrictions on the 6th of May, and didn't even make it to the end of the month before a fresh wave hit.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/28/south-korea-faces-return-to-coronavirus-restrictions-after-spike-in-new-cases

Stark

NDWC wrote: »

For example, how is it that schools are either reopened or about to reopen in most countries yet they're saying they might not open here in ****ing September??

**** sake

Even the HSE are saying returning to school is low risk https://www.rte.ie/amp/1143334/

ednwireland

wench wrote: »

South Korea, the poster child for handling this pandemic well, may have to reimpose restrictions as cases increase.

They lifted their restrictions on the 6th of May, and didn't even make it to the end of the month before a fresh wave hit.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/28/south-korea-faces-return-to-coronavirus-restrictions-after-spike-in-new-cases

their health minister urged companies to allow sick employees to take time off work.

hmmm :rolleyes:

i think this pandemic is showing up the culture of countrieswork and social practices as much as anything

radia

Harpon wrote: »

radia wrote: »

The evidence we have is that when all businesses were open and no restrictions were in place, cases of COVID-19 rose exponentially from a handful to hundreds over a very short timeframe.

The evidence we have is that when restrictions were put in place to limit the number of people out and about having interactions, and the number of people with whom they interacted, and the distance at which they had those interactions, then the rate of infection was greatly reduced.

The evidence we have is that under those circumstances with all those supporting restrictions in place, meaning that the Lidl and Aldi workers met fewer people who in turn had met fewer people, at a safe distance, the infection rate was manageable.

That's very, very different from saying everything will be grand if we just open everything up and have everyone mingling as before.

I think you need to rethink your 'evidence'.

You are completely ignoring my point. Other eu countries had similar infections rates per capita as us back in feb and March, these countries have now reopened to a much greater extent than us. These countries have not had significant spikes in infection rates. Can you dispute that? No, you can’t. Because this is a fact.

As for Lidl and Aldi workers meeting fewer people at a greater distance, you have no evidence of that at all. Sales at supermarkets have exploded, so it’s very likely numbers visiting stores are up. And anyone who has been in a supermarket can tell you there is no social distancing going on.

Oh dear.

I am not ignoring your point. I specifically addressed it. Once more, slowly:
You indicated that because Lidl and Aldi reported low levels of infection in their workers under very specific (semi-lockdown) circumstances, that was evidence that everything would be grand if all businesses were open. It is not.

As for your other "fact" about reopening not being followed by infection spikes, it is very clear that if reopening is not done appropriately it can result in new spikes. A few links (there are plenty more if you google):
Coronavirus: Germany surge sounds coronavirus alarm as world takes steps to reopen
Live updates: Countries that reopened are closing down again as coronavirus infections spike
New Coronavirus Outbreak As South Korea Reopens, Cases Surge In Brazil
Reopenings bring new cases in S. Korea, virus fears in Italy
This Japanese Island Lifted Its Coronavirus Lockdown Too Soon and Became a Warning to the World
Some countries that reopened saw upticks in COVID-19 cases — what can Canada learn?
Reopened Texas sees a surge in COVID-19 cases with 1,000 new daily infections over five consecutive days after state lifted lockdown measures two weeks ago
Iran Sees New Surge in Virus Cases After Reopening Country
And on, and on...

Please try not to present your opinion as fact.

Of course it's possible to reopen successfully, but it needs to be done carefully.

As for the additional points being made about the deaths being predominantly among the elderly and those with underlying conditions, so everyone else should just go about their business as normal:
I don't know about you, but I actually quite like some elderly people and those with underlying conditions, and they tend to be people who don't (and often can't) live alone. The purpose of the restrictions is to reduce community spread so that the younger and healthier people who go out and about will not bring it back to the more vulnerable in the community with whom they live and interact.

And I don't know what supermarkets you're visiting but in the ones I've been, people have been pretty good about observing social distancing, and there have been decidedly fewer present - often enforced by the outlets themselves, including typically having one person shopping alone rather than a family group. Maybe I just mingle with more socially responsible people than you.

Not going to spend my day arguing on the internet, so that's me done.

Gregor Samsa

Harpon wrote: »

Are you calling the death stats and hospital admission stats from countries which have been out of lockdown for a while now imaginary numbers? You think there has been a huge spike in the likes of germany, Denmark, France and Italy, but they are lying about it and somehow their overflowing hospitals and massive death rates hasn’t leaked to the press? If you really believe that then off to the conspiracy forum for you.

No, I'm not, so the rest of your post is irrelevant.

suicide_circus

Gregor Samsa wrote: »

That opinion depends on what relative value you put on the lives of the vulnerable.

Just remember that these are the statistics with lockdown in place, so it doesn't make sense to use them to say that lockdown shouldn't have taken place. They could be evidence that lockdown worked, in the sense that it kept the deaths low.

i'm not saying that lockdown shouldnt have taken place. clearly it was a reasonable call at the time. What i am saying is that 2 months on, we have a lot of additional information now.

i wonder what a venn diagram of people who are afraid of lifting restrictions and people who have been able to work from home with very little ill effect on their economic future looks like. my guess is that its almost a circle.

Sheep_shear

radia wrote: »

I am not ignoring your point. I specifically addressed it. Once more, slowly:
You indicated that because Lidl and Aldi reported low levels of infection in their workers under very specific (semi-lockdown) circumstances, that was evidence that everything would be grand if all businesses were open. It is not.

I'm not so sure you can brush this one of. For the past 10 or 11 weeks, the closest I've been to any human being (aside from my wife) are the staff in my local supermarkets. This must be the same for the majority of people. Surely given the numbers, we should be seeing a spike in staff there? If not, then ok semi-lockdown procedures are good let's apply it to all stores. I don't see how I'm less at risk buying gardening stuff in Lidl versus buying in Woodies, or my local Lidl is selling some clothes too, what's the difference between there and Pennies?