Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

WhiteMemento9

timmy_mallet wrote: »

Would you be happy if we had enough ICU capacity to let the virus run unchecked?

Not unchecked but much happier to have a return to more normal life once public awareness is high, people follow basic guidelines, ICU capcity has increased, R is low, testing is at level deemed appropriate and we can track and trace efficiently. Might be missing some stuff but you get the idea.

timmy_mallet

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

What do you mean 'competitive'? They are small European countries loosening restrictions, why wouldn't we follow their lead?

Typo; comparative. Sweden is a small European country, why wouldn't we follow their lead? Why would you look to South Korea for experiences? You're all over the 'map', horse.

Kermit.de.frog

timmy_mallet wrote: »

What would be different in a couple of months? As you said, from a very very low base, South Kore has reimposed restrictions days after loosening them. How would we be different in 8 weeks?

They closed bars and nightclubs.

They have not reimposed wholesale restrictions.

timmy_mallet

WhiteMemento9 wrote: »

Not unchecked but much happier to have a return to more normal life once public awareness is high, people follow basic guidelines, ICU capcity has increased, R is low, testing is at level deemed appropriate and we can track and trace efficiently. Might be missing some stuff but you get the idea.

So overwhelming the health service is not the issue, glad that's cleared up.

Kermit.de.frog

timmy_mallet wrote: »

So overwhelming the health service is not the issue, glad that's cleared up.

It's the issue.

It's why countries around the world introduced lock downs and restrictions.

timmy_mallet

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

They closed bars and nightclubs.

They have not reimposed wholesale restrictions.

How would be be different in, as you said, a couple of months? What would put us in a position to reduce the spread that the Koreans, the global example of good pandemic response, failed at?

timmy_mallet

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It's the issue.

It's why countries around the world introduced lock downs and restrictions.

So you would be happy with no restrictions if there was enough capacity to deal with the illness?

sheepsh4gger

I've been offline for like a week or two - can I travel now to the post office / local DPD depot? When will the 2Km restriction be lifted? Am I allowed to take a bus or will a cop fine me for traveling 6 kilometers?

FintanMcluskey

WhiteMemento9 wrote: »

We went into lockdown because of the experience seen in other countries that showed if you allow the virus to run unchecked you will have high rates of infection leading to many more hospitalizations. That results in ICU capacity being overrun and a collapse of the health system. That means not only can you not cope with the Covid problem but you can't provide health care in anyway which leads to a huge number of deaths. Given Ireland's low ICU capacity this was of utmost importance. This is all pretty simple stuff and explained ad nauseam so everyone can understand the situation.

A region in Italy struggled with ICU because it had an old population. Ireland does not.
The virus effects mainly the very old, the more very old people in a country the higher the numbers this is pretty evident the last few weeks.

"That results in ICU capacity being overrun and a collapse of the health system. That means not only can you not cope with the Covid problem but you can't provide health care in anyway which leads to a huge number of deaths"

Credit is due to Ireland’s approach to this point. To prevent other care services being overwhelmed they shut them down and cancelled them for 6 months. Its very hard to get overwhelmed if you don't let people recieve treatment. Its a foolproof plan.

Tenger

frillyleaf wrote: »

A country's healthcare ability to deal with increase capacity of a disease is surely the main factor that we had to restrict movements so much? Sweden seems to have a very good healthcare system and isn't overwhelmed despite the amount of admissions it had. Germany's healthcare system is also very well organised and seemed to be able to manage increase of cases.

Unfortunately people will pass away from this, however the restrictions were put in place to stop the healthcare system being overwhelmed. I read there are currently 3000 healthcare staff on Covid related leave. Healthcare staff having this is very dangerous particularly when treating vulnerable patients

This is the entire basis behind "flatten the curve". Its not aimed at reducing the number of infections but rather to space out the infections that the health infrastructure (primarily the ICU capacity) can handle.

The fear is that if the initial spike (over 2 months) is very high then there will be more deaths than if that same number is spread over 6-8 months.

Ireland has an ICU capacity of just under 300 back in late March (I believe it was increased in April)
Thus once the number of severe cases goes above 300, then people die from lack of ventilators rather than the virus itself (5% of 6,000 is 300)

Kermit.de.frog

timmy_mallet wrote: »

How would be be different in, as you said, a couple of months? What would put us in a position to reduce the spread that the Koreans, the global example of good pandemic response, failed at?

SK have been reporting between 1 and 10 cases per day for the last 2 weeks.

They are exemplary.

The point about the nightclubs shows how it only takes one person to spark a larger outbreak in enclosed spaces and how contagious COVID is.

Ergo when it comes to similar venues here we need to take the measures needed to stop that happening and learn from experience elsewhere.

WhiteMemento9

CruelSummer wrote: »

You’re posts towards me have been aggressive and disrespectful and you’re not interested in a debate on this issue so I won’t be engaging with your type.
I clearly stated they are exiting lockdown like many other countries DESPITE being slow to implement restrictions at the start. Truth is no-one actually knows how the U.K.’s performance will be in hindsight as they’re much more densely populated than us.

They have been aggressive and disrespecful. My head nearly exploded at the stupidity on display in the post. Can you at least not recognise that suggesting the UK as an example that we should be following was a dumb thing to say? You are now also making the point that the UK has completely different factors such as population density among other things at play so why mention them at all? Why mention what other countires are doing?

We have our own experts who are making decisions based on our country and what we need and is deemed appropriate. Unless you are an expert on invectious deseases with access to loads of experts to make informed decisions as to the best course of action for our country, how about leaving it to the people in charge to make those calls? I don't really care what the rest of Europe is doing.

marno21

Italy was such a mess also because it was completely novel in this part of the world. Since then a lot has been learned about older patients contracting the disease and what kind of treatment works and doesn't.

Italy was putting older patients that had no chance of surviving into ICU and onto ventilators, which seemingly isn't being done here because the outcomes are mostly negative either way.

timmy_mallet

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

SK have been reporting between 1 and 10 cases per day for the last 2 weeks.

They are exemplary.

The point about the nightclubs shows how it only takes one person to spark a larger outbreak in enclosed spaces and how contagious COVID is.

Ergo when it comes to similar venues here we need to take the measures needed to stop that happening and learn from experience elsewhere.

Third time lucky? How are we going to be different to the exemplars in two months to allow for restriction removals?

Jinglejangle69

frillyleaf wrote: »

A country's healthcare ability to deal with increase capacity of a disease is surely the main factor that we had to restrict movements so much? Sweden seems to have a very good healthcare system and isn't overwhelmed despite the amount of admissions it had. Germany's healthcare system is also very well organised and seemed to be able to manage increase of cases.

Unfortunately people will pass away from this, however the restrictions were put in place to stop the healthcare system being overwhelmed. I read there are currently 3000 healthcare staff on Covid related leave. Healthcare staff having this is very dangerous particularly when treating vulnerable patients

Or maybe Sweden isn't a nation of alcoholic, smoking take away addicts?

FintanMcluskey

marno21 wrote: »

Italy was putting older patients that had no chance of surviving into ICU and onto ventilators, which seemingly isn't being done here because the outcomes are mostly negative either way.

Yes exactly. In Italy people were put on ventilators that would would never usually qualify for that sort of intensive treatment in any other case.
Approx 70 people have died in Ireland in ICU. So 70 people were strong enough to recieve ICU treatment and subsequently passed on

CruelSummer

WhiteMemento9 wrote: »

They have been aggressive and disrespecful. My head nearly exploded at the stupidity on display in the post. Can you at least not recognise that suggesting the UK as an example that we should be following was a dumb thing to say? You are now also making the point that the UK has completely different factors such as population density among other things at play so why mention them at all? Why mention what other countires are doing?

We have our own experts who are making decisions based on our country and what we need and is deemed appropriate. Unless you are an expert on invectious deseases with access to loads of experts to make informed decisions as to the best course of action for our country, how about leaving it to the people in charge to make those calls? I don't really care what the rest of Europe is doing.

And by the way...you’re posts are the ones lacking in content - total incoherence.

Kermit.de.frog

timmy_mallet wrote: »

Third time lucky? How are we going to be different to the exemplars in two months to allow for restriction removals?

Until there is a vaccine that can be distributed rolling lock downs seem inevitable.

All you can do is get to where SK (or Austria) is and hope for the best basically. They are in a place with excellent testing and oversight where much of the economy can function.

We are not.

We have to reach that point.

Can't make it any more simple for you than that.

robbiezero

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Or maybe Sweden isn't a nation of alcoholic, smoking take away addicts?

What nation is?

timmy_mallet

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Or maybe Sweden isn't a nation of alcoholic, smoking take away addicts?

Yes, it's a terrible indictment to our nation that these selfish individuals have caused this much hardship.

timmy_mallet

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Until there is a vaccine that can be distributed rolling lock downs seem inevitable.

All you can do is get to where SK (or Austria) is and hope for the best basically. They are in a place with excellent testing and oversight where much of the economy can function.

We are not.

We have to reach that point.

Can't make it any more simple for you than that.

As I said, you're all over the place, horse.

Stark

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Or maybe Sweden isn't a nation of alcoholic, smoking take away addicts?

Funnily enough smoking seems to reduce a person's risk for whatever reason that haven't been able to figure out yet. (Some clinical trials are in progress at the moment with nicotine patches)

niallo27

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Until there is a vaccine that can be distributed rolling lock downs seem inevitable.

All you can do is get to where SK (or Austria) is and hope for the best basically. They are in a place with excellent testing and oversight where much of the economy can function.

We are not.

We have to reach that point.

Can't make it any more simple for you than that.

Your all over the place here really, I dont agree with your stance usually but respect your opinion but your making no sense tonight.

Arghus

marno21 wrote: »

Italy was such a mess also because it was completely novel in this part of the world. Since then a lot has been learned about older patients contracting the disease and what kind of treatment works and doesn't.

Italy was putting older patients that had no chance of surviving into ICU and onto ventilators, which seemingly isn't being done here because the outcomes are mostly negative either way.

A fact that was very often repeated a few weeks ago, but has been forgotten by a lot now, was that Ireland, according to the EDC, stood the greatest chance amongst EU countries of having ICU capacity overwhelmed.

Our ICU capacity was 5.6 per 100,000.

Italy's was 12.2 per 100, 000.

Kermit.de.frog

niallo27 wrote: »

Your all over the place here really, I dont agree with your stance usually but respect your opinion but your making no sense tonight.

What part of "rolling lock downs" confuses?

All that can be achieved is mitigation before a vaccine. The more you mitigate the more of your economy that can be kept open.

It's really not complicated.

Beasty

CruelSummer wrote: »

Reported

Reporting things is fine. Saying you've done so is pre-judging. Leave the modding to the mods. Any questions PM me

Rolling lockdowns certainly won’t be happening across the world.

Every business needs a plan/roadmap to be successful. Been forced to close every few weeks or months doesn’t work.

The country can barely afford the Covid payments anymore. Banks can’t continue to grant endless pay holidays on mortgages.

Sooner or later we have to learn how to live with Covid. As the stats show, if you shield the over 80s, this mild illness kills very few.

I really hope people don’t complain when the country is destroyed by recession. A cowardly attitude has allowed a mild illness to cause havoc on our country.

kaymin

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

What part of "rolling lock downs" confuses?

All that can be achieved is mitigation before a vaccine. The more you mitigate the more of your economy that can be kept open.

It's really not complicated.

There may never be a vaccine for covid-19. A vaccine hasn't been developed for any Corona virus circulating among humans to date.

We need to live with it - if we continue down the path we're on we will become a third world country and the virus will be the least of our concerns.

Podge201

kaymin wrote: »

There may never be a vaccine for covid-19. A vaccine hasn't been developed for any Corona virus circulating among humans to date.

We need to live with it - if we continue down the path we're on we will become a third world country and the virus will be the least of our concerns.

China will sell their vaccine later in winter when lots more die.

wakka12

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

A region in Italy struggled with ICU because it had an old population. Ireland does not.
The virus effects mainly the very old, the more very old people in a country the higher the numbers this is pretty evident the last few weeks.

"That results in ICU capacity being overrun and a collapse of the health system. That means not only can you not cope with the Covid problem but you can't provide health care in anyway which leads to a huge number of deaths"

Credit is due to Ireland’s approach to this point. To prevent other care services being overwhelmed they shut them down and cancelled them for 6 months. Its very hard to get overwhelmed if you don't let people recieve treatment. Its a foolproof plan.

New York and New Jersey have the same average age as Ireland..they were overwhelmed

Brazil and Mexico have very young populations are their hospitals are being overwhelmed.

The theory that this only affectes countries with elderly populations is a load of bs and there are more than enough examples around the world that show that by now