Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

FintanMcluskey

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I think countries are starting to realise (some of them quickly) that lockdowns will bankrupt and create poverty for ALL. All countries now seem to be desperate to get their economy back working, apart from us

Every country in the world realise's this with the exception of Ireland.
I think the issue with the schools is perhaps the worst. The childrens futures are being ruined over this, from an educational and monetary point of view. Ye cant go to school or see your friends lads, but ye will pay for this for the rest if your lives

AdamD

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

So, good morning.

I see that over the last 2 days, with more articles coming out saying "retirement age will be increased for the elderly, tax hikes will be required to pay back for covid payments" people in this thread are starting to lean towards lets get our country back to work rather than lets hide at home and get those new cases down to 10 per day.

Here is something interesting and controversial

Brazil president came out and said "Virus will not kill as many people as unemployment, this is why I do not want to lockdown the country"

It does seem like Bojo supports this

"Boris Johnson's call for Britain's workforce to return to their jobs has been widely criticised as "wrong" this morning, while London's road traffic has soared by 16 per cent compared to last week. "

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-end-lockdown-boris-johnson-new-rules-school/

I think countries are starting to realise (some of them quickly) that lockdowns will bankrupt and create poverty for ALL. All countries now seem to be desperate to get their economy back working, apart from us

Whilst I think we're exiting our lockdown too slowly, when you're using Bolsonaro and Johnson to support your argument its not a good look

Ginger n Lemon

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Every country in the world realise's this with the exception of Ireland.
I think the issue with the schools is perhaps the worst. The childrens futures are being ruined over this, from an educational and monetary point of view. Ye cant go to school or see your friends lads, but ye will pay for this for the rest if your lives

Just sends a very bad signal for any external investors who think of setting up companies here. How can you relocate a professional from NY to Dublin if you read a newspaper and see that this professional's children may not complete school education properly depending what comes up.

Ginger n Lemon

AdamD wrote: »

Whilst I think we're exiting our lockdown too slowly, when you're using Bolsonaro and Johnson to support your argument its not a good look

I dont think at this stage its about looks.

We are running out of money, very fast. Chair of fiscal advisory already says that new coalitions plan to keep retirement age at 66 may need to be scrapped and income tax will need to increase in October.

Now its just a matter of extent of austerity measures imposed. I personally would rather follow Bojo if it give us a chance to avoid tax hikes and increasing retirement age (for the very elderly we are trying to protect) than Tony stay at home Holohan pay in October.

Ginger n Lemon

Newstalk:

New Zealand rugby resumes, 13th of June onwards 5 domestic teams will play each other.

Bundesliga is back this Saturday.

Racing has already resumed in Germany.

Things are looking up, I'd expect premier league to be back by 18th of June too. Bojo will make that happen

Rodin

Princess Consuela Bananahammock wrote: »

I've been living in Berlin most of the last ten years, and I can assure that what the idea that what happens in Berlin is replicated throughout Germany- espcially with regard to drugs - is a fairly daft assumption to make.

Anyway - as I said - it's not really a good indicator as to Germany and Berlin's approach to covid. Considering the city has about 1/3rd the infection rate and 1/7th the death rate per cpaital Ireland does.

Only my experience.
Was shocked.
Wouldn't see it here.

the kelt

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Newstalk:

New Zealand rugby resumes, 13th of June onwards 5 domestic teams will play each other.

Bundesliga is back this Saturday.

Racing has already resumed in Germany.

Things are looking up, I'd expect premier league to be back by 18th of June too. Bojo will make that happen

Meanwhile i went for a cycle on Saturday evening in the middle of the country, looked down at my watch and had travelled 7k where literally the only traffic i encountered within that 7k was 2 tractors and im effectively breaking the law!!

Of all the restrictions the whole 5k limit is bonkers imho, i can literally travel 5k from my house and not see another human, meanwhile in the middle of Dublin i can meet hundreds if not more.

They do know that other countries have the foresight to treat various areas differently depending on the situation.

coastwatch

Princess Consuela Bananahammock wrote: »

I've been living in Berlin most of the last ten years, and I can assure that what the idea that what happens in Berlin is replicated throughout Germany- espcially with regard to drugs - is a fairly daft assumption to make.

Anyway - as I said - it's not really a good indicator as to Germany and Berlin's approach to covid. Considering the city has about 1/3rd the infection rate and 1/7th the death rate per cpaital Ireland does.

The german R value daily estimate that has been quoted widely over the weekend seems to be very crude estimate. It appears it is calculated by taking the daily new case number (including a estimate of un-reported new cases) and dividing by the number of cases 4 days previous? Is that a correct interpretation?

With daily cases now down at around 0.5%, even small changes in the daily reported cases could make a big change in the R value. I hope big decisions are not being made on the basis of that estimate alone?

MrDavid1976

coastwatch wrote: »

The german R value daily estimate that has been quoted widely over the weekend seems to be very crude estimate. It appears it is calculated by taking the daily new case number (including a estimate of un-reported new cases) and dividing by the number of cases 4 days previous? Is that a correct interpretation?

With daily cases now down at around 0.5%, even small changes in the daily reported cases could make a big change in the R value. I hope big decisions are not being made on the basis of that estimate alone?

Indeed the Germans themselves were urging caution on the use of this figure. Meanwhile expect this figure and South Korea to be quoted by the Government (I.e. Tony Holohan) this week

FintanMcluskey

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

Indeed the Germans themselves were urging caution on the use of this figure. Meanwhile expect this figure and South Korea to be quoted by the Government (I.e. Tony Holohan) this week

Yep, and while anyone with a functioning brain tears their hair out listening to the press conferences, others are commenting RIP and god bless us all.

Princess Consuela Bananahammock

coastwatch wrote: »

The german R value daily estimate that has been quoted widely over the weekend seems to be very crude estimate. It appears it is calculated by taking the daily new case number (including a estimate of un-reported new cases) and dividing by the number of cases 4 days previous? Is that a correct interpretation?

With daily cases now down at around 0.5%, even small changes in the daily reported cases could make a big change in the R value. I hope big decisions are not being made on the basis of that estimate alone?

More long term. If it goes over 1.0 for a few days, no problem. If it goes over and stays there for a week or two, changes will be made.

They'll know beforehand what it's roughly going to do by the number of cases per day. At the moment, it's forming a very predictable pattern and has already dropped back below the 1000 case per day mark, which means the R0 number will also drop.

Most people in Berlin hae been hanging out but oberving social distance and only meeting up with two or three different people, but the same people each time and that appears to have worked. I think Berlin was more used to keeping space before this came in anyway.

Ginger n Lemon

Princess Consuela Bananahammock wrote: »

More long term. If it goes over 1.0 for a few days, no problem. If it goes over and stays there for a week or two, changes will be made.

They'll know beforehand what it's roughly going to do by the number of cases per day. At the moment, it's forming a very predictable pattern and has already dropped back below the 1000 case per day mark, which means the R0 number will also drop.

Changes made (if any) will be very small. German high court ruled that government handing out large sums of money to German companies needs to stop and can only happen if it can be properly justified. (in legal terms its very difficult to justify the health impact or the R number etc)

EU obviously can overrule German high court, but as is its unlikely German government will challenge its own high court decision. Be a bit embarrassing actually.

Very interesting ruling.

SNNUS

Well it's almost a week to go to Phase 1 so the old sound bites of we cannot see restrictions lifting and we need to be lower than we are to get the public used to the fact that they will kick the can further down the road and suggest Joe public was to blame. Got to love Ireland but in fairness they have a fairly gullible audience compared to other countries.

facehugger99

So BoJo decides to treat the British people like adults and take sensible precautions.

Meanwhile in Ireland, we have to be mammied by the Government every step of the way it seems, for months to come.

It's depressing to watch this unfold like a car-crash in slow motion. Destroying the economy and the future for so many people over a modelling exercise which has been roundly debunked at this stage.

coastwatch

Princess Consuela Bananahammock wrote: »

More long term. If it goes over 1.0 for a few days, no problem. If it goes over and stays there for a week or two, changes will be made.

They'll know beforehand what it's roughly going to do by the number of cases per day. At the moment, it's forming a very predictable pattern and has already dropped back below the 1000 case per day mark, which means the R0 number will also drop.

Most people in Berlin hae been hanging out but oberving social distance and only meeting up with two or three different people, but the same people each time and that appears to have worked. I think Berlin was more used to keeping space before this came in anyway.

That german R value estimate was being reported all around the world in mainstream media as "cases are on the rise again in Germany".
It seems it's not much better than the "toss of a coin" and probably not very helpful as a daily reported number.

I think Philip Nolan's group here use three different complex models to estimate the R value here, and I think it's reported weekly, not daily.

Beasty

Just a general point on the R number. If numbers of new infections is increasing, R>1. If it's decreasing R<1. It really is that simple

It needs to be looked at over an extended period (which is why 14 days has been regularly mentioned in terms of trends)

Now we seem to be on top of testing, and our figures have been falling consistently, our R number would appear to be less than 1. It was not possible to properly evaluate the number when we were not doing enough tests (as we simply had little idea of the numbers already infected let alone new infections)

As always though there is a lag in this. The R number we see now probably reflect the position from 2+ weeks ago. The danger we currently face is if people are relaxing restrictions themselves we could see the R number go up, but that may not be apparent for another couple of weeks

Having said that our new infection rates have been decreasing for a month now, at a time when we were eating into the backlog of testing (which would push numbers up, all other things being equal)

Clearly all the data still needs to be treated with some caution as we cannot and will not fully understand this particular virus until after we have gone through at least a full year of exposure

growleaves

Clearly all the data still needs to be treated with some caution as we cannot and will not fully understand this particular virus until after we have gone through at least a full year of exposure

In fairness Beasty, the people who refused to treat the appearance of exponential increases with any kind of balance or proportion now want us to treat the appearance of exponential decreases with excessive caution.

This is ostensible caution going in one direction only. The head of the World Food Programme predicts a quarter of billions deaths from famine in the developing world and that may be starting within weeks. So lockdown has its consequences too (as well as the minor matter of impoverishing us all for generations).

growleaves

Smacks of reckless and inept leadership, watch the second wave roll in before June.

You expect the second wave of this virus to occur in the next three weeks?

Speakerboxx

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It's not about being out in front. It is about doing the right thing for us.

We still have in excess of 200 new cases per day.

That's the reality of the situation. That seems too high a base for us to open up. We need that to fall over the coming days.

Nonsense. Its time to open up now. We have seen enough of covid Tony and the present government.

growleaves

growleaves wrote: »

You expect the second wave of this virus to occur in the next three weeks?

Case numbers are still quite high across the Irish Sea, it wouldn't take much for a crisis to escalate rapidly and hospitals become overburdened. BoJo is playing with fire.

Tenger

Nermal wrote: »

...........

Nonsense. No statistics, just anecdotes. Here's real data.

https://twitter.com/thomas_82/status/1259506805383651329

If you are quoting Neil Ferguson, just remember that it was his modelling that predicted 2.2 million deaths in the USA.
Predictions regarding SARS and Swine FLu were similarly dramatic.

Mike3287

Deleted User wrote: »

Case numbers are still quite high across the Irish Sea, it wouldn't take much for a crisis to escalate rapidly and hospitals become overburdened. BoJo is playing with fire.

The Germans and Danes are playing too and I would trust them over our master Tony

German lockdown going well

Their lowest coronavirus infections since 12 March and lowest coronavirus deaths since 21 March.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-11/germany-reports-fewest-new-coronavirus-infections-in-six-days

Danes reduced social distancing to 1m

https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/ghjqcc/denmark_cuts_distancing_rule_in_major_step_to_end/

We should be watching this and adjusting our lockdown dates, writing off the whole summer looks ridiculous at this stage

NIMAN

Mike3287 wrote: »

The Germans and Danes are playing too and I would trust them over our master Tony

German lockdown going well

Their lowest coronavirus infections since 12 March and lowest coronavirus deaths since 21 March.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-11/germany-reports-fewest-new-coronavirus-infections-in-six-days

Danes reduced social distancing to 1m

https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/ghjqcc/denmark_cuts_distancing_rule_in_major_step_to_end/

We should be watching this and adjusting our lockdown dates, writing off the whole summer looks ridiculous at this stage

Did I not hear last night on the news that their R number was 0.5 when thet relaxed restrictions, and within a week its up at almost 1 again?

Princess Consuela Bananahammock

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Changes made (if any) will be very small. German high court ruled that government handing out large sums of money to German companies needs to stop and can only happen if it can be properly justified. (in legal terms its very difficult to justify the health impact or the R number etc)

EU obviously can overrule German high court, but as is its unlikely German government will challenge its own high court decision. Be a bit embarrassing actually.

Very interesting ruling.

Germany is federal and different states can dictate their own rules, but I'm not sure if that was applied here. Also, it's not really relvent to the R number.

coastwatch wrote: »

That german R value estimate was being reported all around the world in mainstream media as "cases are on the rise again in Germany".
It seems it's not much better than the "toss of a coin" and probably not very helpful as a daily reported number.

I think Philip Nolan's group here use three different complex models to estimate the R value here, and I think it's reported weekly, not daily.

Case numbers are rising and falling in everyy country, that's just the natural way. But again - correaltion =/= causation, especially in the case of a virus that takes several days to incubate.

NIMAN wrote: »

Did I not hear last night on the news that their R number was 0.5 when thet relaxed restrictions, and within a week its up at almost 1 again?

Germany relaxed restrictions three weeks ago, Since then it went from 0.9, to 0.7 to 1.0 to 0.7 to 1.3 and is now at 1.1 and will fall again as the number of new cases has been dropping in the last few days and probably go back up again at the weekend as this is when the peak appears to concistently arise. It hasn't been as low as 0.5 in the last few weeks.

Any changes caused be restrictions being eased (or placed for that matter) will take at lesat a week to have any impact and most likely longer.

Also, bear in mind as I said earlier, Germany is federal and different states have had different lockdowns and different schedules with regard to lifting.

facehugger99

Mike3287 wrote: »

We should be watching this and adjusting our lockdown dates, writing off the whole summer looks ridiculous at this stage

We're looking like the slow kid in the classroom at this stage.


We'll be a punchline before the summers out.


Good job that Leo, Simon and Tony have their arses covered though - far more important than our country's future.

Speakerboxx

Who would guess Tony will add another 2 weeks of extensions before the 18th may actually comes. I would not be surprised.

uli84

Speakerboxx wrote: »

Who would guess Tony will add another 2 weeks of extensions before the 18th may actually comes. I would not be surprised.

He seems out of touch with reality so anything is possible

Speakerboxx

Speakerboxx wrote: »

Who would guess Tony will add another 2 weeks of extensions before the 18th may actually comes. I would not be surprised.

I'm completely against this ridiculous lockdown and while its tragic that we're killing people with this lockdown... I'll find it hard not to laugh and shake my head in disgust if they try to extend it again.

I actually won't be surprised at all if they try it. But I fear there would be a big public backlash.

Loozer

Would be a monumental fukkup if he renewed the lockdown at the 12th hour

People preparing to return to work now

Ginger n Lemon

Speakerboxx wrote: »

Who would guess Tony will add another 2 weeks of extensions before the 18th may actually comes. I would not be surprised.

I know Irish people arent well known for protesting, but I would wager a 5 er on a some sort of a protest happening the next day after such announcement.

Btw people advocating being cautious, just remember that bad economy = low investment in healthcare = reduced life expectancy/increase number of deaths in the long run. (and our healthcare system has been poor over the last 5 years despite GDP growth of average 6 -8% in each of those last 5 years, imagine if GDP decreases by 10% this year...)

So we could guess if opening too early will be damaging or not. While guessing we should be looking at Denmark, Norway, Czech republic, even Belgium and seeing if they are experiencing high spikes in deaths.

But in reality we are getting much poorer as a nation in the long run with every day of the lockdown being present, this is not a guess.