Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

NIMAN

I think you'd be surprised how compliant the population here are.

If the restrictions are extended the vast majority will do what they are told.

For many, the guys in charge are doing a great job, and they will be held in high esteem when all this is over.

Loozer

I think what's happening here is that were taking a low- tech approach to the virus

Shut everything down for a long time

Open up real slow

Seamai

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I'm completely against this ridiculous lockdown and while its tragic that we're killing people with this lockdown... I'll find it hard not to laugh and shake my head in disgust if they try to extend it again.

I actually won't be surprised at all if they try it. But I fear there would be a big public backlash.

It will depend on new case figures over the next few days, if you want to vent your anger at at anyone direct towards the as*holes who have been flouting the recommendations over the last few weeks. They are the ones that will push any relaxation out further.

tobefrank321

They need to get back to cancer screening asap. This is going to cost many lives if they don't.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0510/1137590-breastcheck-cervicalcheck/

is_that_so

NIMAN wrote: »

I think you'd be surprised how compliant the population here are.

If the restrictions are extended the vast majority will do what they are told.

For many, the guys in charge are doing a great job, and they will be held in high esteem when all this is over.

Not without clear explanations. I see no issue with giving them credit. Overall they have managed it well, with authority and generally clear communication. The post-crisis reviews will draw attention to what could have been better but speed over being right has always been the best approach.

Loozer

Seamai wrote: »

It will depend on new case figures over the next few days, if you want to vent your anger at at anyone direct towards the as*holes who have been flouting the recommendations over the last few weeks. They are the ones that will push any relaxation out further.

Except that's not true

Speakerboxx

NIMAN wrote: »

they will be held in high esteem when all this is over.

I don't think they will to be honest. The restrictions have gone on far too long and we arent out of them yet. I hazard a guess that Tony will make extensions if present figures don't drop. I hate saying that but I wouldn't be surprised at all and imo that be some disaster for Ireland.

is_that_so

Speakerboxx wrote: »

I don't think they will to be honest. The restrictions have gone on far too long and we arent out of them yet. I hazard a guess that Tony will make extensions if present figures don't drop. I hate saying that but I wouldn't be surprised at all and imo that be some disaster for Ireland.

Why would they be extended? Bear in mind that Phase 1 is an easing over a three week period. That's a lot of built-in flexibility.

Seamai

Loozer wrote: »

Except that's not true

Believe what you want, it will come down to figures.

hamburgham

There’s a small café near me. The owner opened over the weekend, placed a table at the door and was offering drinks and sandwiches for sale. She told me the landlord won’t engage with her about the rent. It was so sad. It was like the type of thing you see in the third world, people throwing down a cloth and desperately trying to make a few quid selling whatever they have.

There is no way the café can operate anyway with a 2-metre social distancing plus most of the other ‘protocols'. What has been done to people who have to earn a living is despicable.

tobefrank321

the kelt wrote: »

Meanwhile i went for a cycle on Saturday evening in the middle of the country, looked down at my watch and had travelled 7k where literally the only traffic i encountered within that 7k was 2 tractors and im effectively breaking the law!!

Of all the restrictions the whole 5k limit is bonkers imho, i can literally travel 5k from my house and not see another human, meanwhile in the middle of Dublin i can meet hundreds if not more.

They do know that other countries have the foresight to treat various areas differently depending on the situation.

The 2km and 5km rules were intended to stop people mixing. The bigger risk though was people moving from hotspots such as in Dublin, Cavan, etc to somewhere else.

We need to move to the French system of green and red zones or counties in Ireland. Green zone counties should have most restrictions lifted sooner as the chances of infection are far lower.

Its between red and green zones where the limits on travel should be except for essential travel and work.

Ginger n Lemon

tobefrank321 wrote: »

They need to get back to cancer screening asap. This is going to cost many lives if they don't.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0510/1137590-breastcheck-cervicalcheck/

Very very worrying

"Dr Gabriel Scally said the pause to breast and cervical cancer screening programmes will have implications but added they could not have continued because of the issues around social distancing. "

This is just crazy. You could not continue services that could identify/prevent people from getting cancer (which has a very high mortality rate) because of your fears of social distancing/covid with its with all the respect to covid - tiny mortality rate in comparison to cancer.

Borderline manslaughter?

ChikiChiki

NIMAN wrote: »

Did I not hear last night on the news that their R number was 0.5 when thet relaxed restrictions, and within a week its up at almost 1 again?

German R number is up to 1.1 and rising. Their relaxation of restrictions is not going the way they want.

Pitch n Putt

“If restrictions are to be lifted this weekend the numbers aren’t where we need them to be “

Tony what’s the number we’re hoping to achieve?

“As low as possible “

“People need to stay the course “

“ICU admissions still too high “

Rinse and repeat for the next few days right up to Friday evening anyway.

Crazy stuff whilst shovelling another few million down the drain and another few businesses gone to the wall

Leo waiting for our leader to say go with his prepared speech which is going to have the dreaded we may need to revert back included more than once I’d expect.

Interesting week ahead.

Loozer

Seamai wrote: »

Believe what you want, it will come down to figures.

Exactly

Sweet.Science

ChikiChiki wrote: »

German R number is up to 1.1 and rising. Their relaxation of restrictions is not going the way they want.

A vaccine is going to be rushed through .

SNNUS

ChikiChiki wrote: »

German R number is up to 1.1 and rising. Their relaxation of restrictions is not going the way they want.

No vaccine so they got to live with it..Again NO Vaccine.

setanta1984

Seamai wrote: »

It will depend on new case figures over the next few days, if you want to vent your anger at at anyone direct towards the as*holes who have been flouting the recommendations over the last few weeks. They are the ones that will push any relaxation out further.

I don't buy this either.

New cases are now consistently below 300, including in residential facilities separated from the general population.
For a population of 5 million that is tiny. The "flouting" of recommendations is happening in every corner of the country at this stage, for a number of weeks. If people's behaviour at the moment was so utterly detrimental we'd be seeing much higher rates than this, and every town in the country would be seeing rises. That's not happening.
It's 7 weeks of the current restrictions, 9 of total. The people cannot be continued to be blamed at this stage - we've reached the limit of what people can take.

tobefrank321

SNNUS wrote: »

No vaccine so they got to live with it..Again NO Vaccine.

So far the most promising vaccine appears to be the Oxford one. They said they'd know the results of early human trials in June. If the results are not positive, we could be in for a long wait for a vaccine. There's also a question mark whether the virus though relatively stable is mutating slightly so that by the time you have a vaccine its a bit late for the mutation you were originally working on.

NIMAN

NIMAN wrote: »

I think you'd be surprised how compliant the population here are.

If the restrictions are extended the vast majority will do what they are told.

For many, the guys in charge are doing a great job, and they will be held in high esteem when all this is over.

A lot of this is due to the scaremongering by the media and the government/HSE's reluctance to report the situation correctly.

Most people don't know that only a tiny number of deaths occurred in people under 70.

I still have people in their 20's and 30's telling me they are at high risk because they have a small touch of asthma.

ChikiChiki

SNNUS wrote: »

No vaccine so they got to live with it..Again NO Vaccine.

I don't disagree.

Go for a walk, it's a nice afternoon.

Ginger n Lemon

Could people please stop posting German R numbers? Its irrelevant.

If Germany have R of 1.5, and 0 deaths, do you really think they ll start re imposing restrictions? What if they have 10 deaths per day? country has 83,000,000 people living in it.

Countries have come to terms that A) you need to protect the elderly, developed vaccine with proven no side effects wont be ready until 2023-2025, C) lockdowns are way too disproportionate

I really dont see the benefit of having daily updates "30 new cases in South Korea" "German R number goes from 0.7 to 1.1" etc etc. posted here. Especially when you consider that German medical experts themselves say that looking at R rate over a short term period is counterproductive.

niallo27

ChikiChiki wrote: »

German R number is up to 1.1 and rising. Their relaxation of restrictions is not going the way they want.

Its too early to tell they said and the article quoted few pages back say the numbers are down. Every single doctor and scientist said there would be a rise when restrictions were relaxed, who exactly said things were not going the way they want.

SNNUS

Seamai wrote: »

It will depend on new case figures over the next few days, if you want to vent your anger at at anyone direct towards the as*holes who have been flouting the recommendations over the last few weeks. They are the ones that will push any relaxation out further.[

Please do not be so gullible to swallow the Joe Public to blame sound bite.. The government can tell the masses anything and most go with it..

NIMAN

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Could people please stop posting German R numbers? Its irrelevant.

If Germany have R of 1.5, and 0 deaths, do you really think they ll start re imposing restrictions? What if they have 10 deaths per day? country has 83,000,000 people living in it.

Countries have come to terms that A) you need to protect the elderly, developed vaccine with proven no side effects wont be ready until 2023-2025, C) lockdowns are way too disproportionate

I really dont see the benefit of having daily updates "30 new cases in South Korea" "German R number goes from 0.7 to 1.1" etc etc. posted here. Especially when you consider that German medical experts themselves say that looking at R rate over a short term period is counterproductive.

We are mentioning it here because we know for a fact that if the R number in Ireland goes from 0.8 to 0.85 then we will be taken back a stage in the relaxation.

is_that_so

niallo27 wrote: »

Its too early to tell they said and the article quoted few pages back say the numbers are down. Every single doctor and scientist said there would be a rise when restrictions were relaxed, who exactly said things were not going the way they want.

One of "wonderful" things about this virus is how it has confounded science and one can throw any wild projections at it safe in the knowledge there will be an explanation to justify being wrong.

SusieBlue

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Very very worrying

"Dr Gabriel Scally said the pause to breast and cervical cancer screening programmes will have implications but added they could not have continued because of the issues around social distancing. "

This is just crazy. You could not continue services that could identify/prevent people from getting cancer (which has a very high mortality rate) because of your fears of social distancing/covid with its with all the respect to covid - tiny mortality rate in comparison to cancer.

Borderline manslaughter?

Absolutely. The reality is that you can’t social distance while giving pretty much any type of medical care, full stop.
It’s an unfortunate fact that needs to be accepted.
I do appreciate that this means there’s an increased risk for healthcare staff but it is what it is.

These services should never have been shut down in the first place because it’s simply not possible to offer these services with social distancing in mind. So I don’t know what exactly they’re waiting for? Do they just plan on withdrawing the services forever?

If they applied this logic across the board, maternity hospitals would be shut down because you can’t social distance while assisting with birth either.
It’s absolutely ridiculous that the HSE appear to be picking and choosing which healthcare services can’t operate because of social distancing concerns and which can.
The reality is that none of them can. That doesn’t mean the services should be stopped.

is_that_so

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Could people please stop posting German R numbers? Its irrelevant.

If Germany have R of 1.5, and 0 deaths, do you really think they ll start re imposing restrictions? What if they have 10 deaths per day? country has 83,000,000 people living in it.

Countries have come to terms that A) you need to protect the elderly, developed vaccine with proven no side effects wont be ready until 2023-2025, C) lockdowns are way too disproportionate

I really dont see the benefit of having daily updates "30 new cases in South Korea" "German R number goes from 0.7 to 1.1" etc etc. posted here. Especially when you consider that German medical experts themselves say that looking at R rate over a short term period is counterproductive.

Nolan and the CMO point out the risks of values greater than 1, noting that we can go above it but not too far. I think it will be the whole public health management aspect that will be at the core of the strategy rather than one varying number.

Seamai

setanta1984 wrote: »

I don't buy this either.

New cases are now consistently below 300, including in residential facilities separated from the general population.
For a population of 5 million that is tiny. The "flouting" of recommendations is happening in every corner of the country at this stage, for a number of weeks. If people's behaviour at the moment was so utterly detrimental we'd be seeing much higher rates than this, and every town in the country would be seeing rises. That's not happening.
It's 7 weeks of the current restrictions, 9 of total. The people cannot be continued to be blamed at this stage - we've reached the limit of what people can take.

Not sure what little bubble you're living in or what you choose to see but I see plenty of flouting and careless behaviour when I leave the house for shopping or exercise. None of us are finding it easy but some people just can't help themselves.
A couple of weeks ago we were told several times by NPHET that the daily new case rate needed to be below 100 for several days running before further relaxation takes place, let's just hope for everyone's sake that we see those sort of figures from today on.

Princess Consuela Bananahammock

ChikiChiki wrote: »

German R number is up to 1.1 and rising. Their relaxation of restrictions is not going the way they want.

I addressed this when you sid the same thing yesterday:

Princess Consuela Bananahammock wrote: »

It'll go back down again.

German numbers always peak on Thrusday and Friday for some reason and with numbers less than a thousand per day up until then, even a samll increase was going to push it up again.

Same thing will likely happen next weekend.

Also, it's now three weeks since restrictions started easing, so it's unlikley to be caused by that.

And earlier today

Princess Consuela Bananahammock wrote: »

Germany relaxed restrictions three weeks ago, Since then it went from 0.9, to 0.7 to 1.0 to 0.7 to 1.3 and is now at 1.1 and will fall again as the number of new cases has been dropping in the last few days and probably go back up again at the weekend as this is when the peak appears to concistently arise. It hasn't been as low as 0.5 in the last few weeks.

Any changes caused be restrictions being eased (or placed for that matter) will take at lesat a week to have any impact and most likely longer.

Also, bear in mind as I said earlier, Germany is federal and different states have had different lockdowns and different schedules with regard to lifting.