Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

CalamariFritti

NIMAN wrote: »

We are mentioning it here because we know for a fact that if the R number in Ireland goes from 0.8 to 0.85 then we will be taken back a stage in the relaxation.

We don't actually know that for a fact. When the R number here went really low the CMO wasn't interested either. He just made up new targets for which he didnt give us any hard numbers either.

That may make total sense from his corner. But when you're dealing with the suspension of civil liberties and economic activities thats actually not good enough. I don't blame the CMO for this but the government is hiding behind him afraid to make any calls for hard measurements.

So we don't know anything for a fact with regards to numbers within our strategy. We must assume they have numbers in mind but the only fact we know is that our government is dodging giving us hard numbers. I'm not saying that they don't do that with the best intentions but its not really helping with regards to keeping the people on board.

As for the rising R number in Germany.

It certainly isn't a positive development. But R is kind of a model based calculation - a bit like the weather - and its up and down all the time and it lags 10 days or more behind. So of course we'd rather not see that news but its too early to say whether its just statistical noise or whether its a new unwelcome trend.

What Germany has done now they have given a new number, a hard measurement with regards to further easing or not. They say that if in any given county (they don't really have counties, 'Landkreise', counties is the closest thing we have to that). They say that if in any given county the number of new cases rises above 50 per 100,000 in population per week that county will have to be frozen on the current lockdown/easing level.

A number of counties have now risen above that value of 50 but apparently thats down to outbreaks in meat factories.

We will have to wait and see. Not a good development but the very articles discussing that rise say that its too early to say if it is an actual development or just statistical noise.

the kelt

setanta1984 wrote: »

I don't buy this either.

New cases are now consistently below 300, including in residential facilities separated from the general population.
For a population of 5 million that is tiny. The "flouting" of recommendations is happening in every corner of the country at this stage, for a number of weeks. If people's behaviour at the moment was so utterly detrimental we'd be seeing much higher rates than this, and every town in the country would be seeing rises. That's not happening.
It's 7 weeks of the current restrictions, 9 of total. The people cannot be continued to be blamed at this stage - we've reached the limit of what people can take.

Yep i mean the numbers from community transmission are practically suppressed with the vast majority of numbers coming from care home settings as the HSE have alluded to themselvss but of course the simpleton view is that the numbers are from people flouting restrictions because Leo once stood up wagging his finger saying if people didnt stay at home the restrictions wouldnt be lifted.

Might as well change the national anthem to baa baa black sheep at this stage.

Ginger n Lemon

NIMAN wrote: »

We are mentioning it here because we know for a fact that if the R number in Ireland goes from 0.8 to 0.85 then we will be taken back a stage in the relaxation.

What i find interest is that Denmark have opened up much earlier than Germany, and now even reduced their social distancing to 1 metre, yet no death and destruction. R numbers or no R numbers.

I think looking at Denmark is much more appropriate given its similar size to Ireland.

alternatively what if we see R number of 2.5 in US where majority of states have disregarded covid.. thats not really helpful info.

I havent said this in a while so you may doubt its me posting, but dont worry, it is me, - Leo you gotta open up ahead of schedule. Please

SNNUS

ChikiChiki wrote: »

I don't disagree.

Go for a walk, it's a nice afternoon.

I will look after my own exercise
schedule thanks.

setanta1984

Seamai wrote: »

Not sure what little bubble you're living in or what you choose to see but I see plenty of flouting and careless behaviour when I leave the house for shopping or exercise. None of us are finding it easy but some people just can't help themselves.

That's not what I said. I agreed that the flouting is happening. My point is it is not causing crazy rises in cases.
We had 22 recorded new cases outside nursing homes one day last week. 22.

the kelt

Sure what difference does the R number make anyway?

The R number was where it was needed to be at the time they were deciding whether to relax the restrictions the last time according to Simon Harris.

Then they just stopped talking about the R number anyway.

Mike3287

hamburgham wrote: »

There’s a small café near me. The owner opened over the weekend, placed a table at the door and was offering drinks and sandwiches for sale. She told me the landlord won’t engage with her about the rent. It was so sad. It was like the type of thing you see in the third world, people throwing down a cloth and desperately trying to make a few quid selling whatever they have.

There is no way the café can operate anyway with a 2-metre social distancing plus most of the other ‘protocols'. What has been done to people who have to earn a living is despicable.

It's disgraceful, feel so bad for them

It's ok for Tesco/Supervalu etc to open, sell coffee, sandwiches, books etc with very few obeying that made up 2 metre social distancing law

Not ok for a small coffee shop, cafe, book shop to open

Small places can't do that made up social distance 2 metres.

At least let small business implement other measures, temperature check on entry, masks to be worn inside, takeaway only, give them a chance ffs

is_that_so

Seamai wrote: »

Not sure what little bubble you're living in or what you choose to see but I see plenty of flouting and careless behaviour when I leave the house for shopping or exercise. None of us are finding it easy but some people just can't help themselves.
A couple of weeks ago we were told several times by NPHET that the daily new case rate needed to be below 100 for several days running before further relaxation takes place, let's just hope for everyone's sake that we see those sort of figures from today on.

It is a most people scenario, never 100% compliance and always has been. I think you need to be careful about defining what they "tell" us. That may well have been the question and the CMO tends to just answer the question asked. I think the answer is "as low as possible but we need to be constantly mindful of the cure being worse than the disease".

is_that_so

Mike3287 wrote: »

It's disgraceful, feel so bad for them

It's ok for Tesco/Supervalu etc to open, sell coffee, sandwiches, books etc with very few obeying that made up 2 metre social distancing law

Not ok for a small coffee shop, cafe, book shop to open

Small places can't do that made up social distance 2 metres.

At least let small business implement other measures, temperature check on entry, masks to be worn inside, takeaway only, give them a chance ffs

Not seeing this "very few" anywhere. The vast majority in my experience are making an effort to follow the guidelines.

ek motor

the kelt wrote: »

Sure what difference does the R number make anyway?

The R number was where it was needed to be at the time they were deciding whether to relax the restrictions the last time according to Simon Harris.

Then they just stopped talking about the R number anyway.

The r0 (r-naught) is the number of new infections likely to stem from a single case. if the r0 is greater than 1 it means the number of infections is increasing, less than 1 and it is decreasing.

MrDavid1976

So to be clear in terms of the numbers, is my understanding correct?

- testing is significantly up.
- they are on top of the clusters which emerged - nursing homes, direct provision and meat factories?
- outside of these known clusters there is no great evidence now of community transmissions?
- Cases in ICU are on a continuous downward curve - a drop of 55% in a week.
- the rate of new infections despite the increased testing is going down?
- as hospital cases go down, medical staff will be less exposed.

castletownman

tobefrank321 wrote: »

The 2km and 5km rules were intended to stop people mixing. The bigger risk though was people moving from hotspots such as in Dublin, Cavan, etc to somewhere else.

We need to move to the French system of green and red zones or counties in Ireland. Green zone counties should have most restrictions lifted sooner as the chances of infection are far lower.

Its between red and green zones where the limits on travel should be except for essential travel and work.

They have introduced a similar system in the UK too, which will indicate where new clusters have cropped up in the country.

We know that the government won't consider this at all though, because they are quite happy with Dublin's status as the primate city in the country and couldn't have that (the epicentre) subject to harsher lockdowns than the rest of the country.

Just think about the number of people who commute to Dublin every day for their office job (I know its very high around north Wexford alone). Say if Dublin was classed as an "orange zone", those who can have to work at home instead (its already been done by a sizeable chunk of the workforce anyway). No travelling to the "orange zone" until cases ease, except for essential journeys such as hospital appointments or work, if you can't do the latter from home. Fines for those who ignore the protocols- strictly enforced.

The Greens will be delighted as it will reduce traffic, and local businesses like cafes etc will get a boost too.

But then again, for a lot of our government, that can't see beyond Dublin.

the kelt

ek motor wrote: »

The r0 (r-naught) is the number of new infections likely to stem from a single case. if the r0 is greater than 1 it means the number of infections is increasing, less than 1 and it is decreasing.

I know what it is.

My point is it needed to be below 1 for restrictions to be lifted the last time according to Simon Harris, it was well below 1 and it didnt make any difference anyway and now they dont even talk about it.

is_that_so

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

So to be clear in terms of the numbers, is my understanding correct?

- testing is significantly up.
- they are on top of the clusters which emerged - nursing homes, direct provision and meat factories?
- outside of these known clusters there is no great evidence now of community transmissions?
- Cases in ICU are on a continuous downward curve - a drop of 55% in a week.
- the rate of new infections despite the increased testing is going down?
- as hospital cases go down, medical staff will be less exposed.

Pretty much. There are still some issues around testing, turnaround times and the contact tracing system not quite being perfect but should be good enough.

MrDavid1976

is_that_so wrote: »

Not seeing this "very few" anywhere. The vast majority in my experience are making an effort to follow the guidelines.

I was in a fish mongers and a small deli last week who were both entitled to open and applied social distancing. I have seen food places adjust their business models to keep trading and apply social distancing. Hairdressers and beauticians etc can open and apply safeguards in other countries. It is not brain surgery.

ixoy

castletownman wrote: »

Just think about the number of people who commute to Dublin every day for their office job (I know its very high around north Wexford alone). Say if Dublin was classed as an "orange zone", those who can have to work at home instead (its already been done by a sizeable chunk of the workforce anyway). No travelling to the "orange zone" until cases ease, except for essential journeys such as hospital appointments or work, if you can't do the latter from home.

While I can see where you're coming from, it's a little more complex than that I think:
What defines cases as easing - obviously Dublin having a greater population, you will expect more cases. Do they just mean cases outside of nursing home settings?
If things get rolled back and forth, flip flopping around in Dublin, it'd make it difficult for employers. It'll also make it trickier for the many cafes and the like in the city centre that depend on workers as their customers.

Whatever about employment (where there could be some merit), you won't get away with it on a social level where some counties could go say visit families and others could not.

random_banter

SusieBlue wrote: »

Absolutely. The reality is that you can’t social distance while giving pretty much any type of medical care, full stop.
It’s an unfortunate fact that needs to be accepted.
I do appreciate that this means there’s an increased risk for healthcare staff but it is what it is.

These services should never have been shut down in the first place because it’s simply not possible to offer these services with social distancing in mind. So I don’t know what exactly they’re waiting for? Do they just plan on withdrawing the services forever?

If they applied this logic across the board, maternity hospitals would be shut down because you can’t social distance while assisting with birth either.
It’s absolutely ridiculous that the HSE appear to be picking and choosing which healthcare services can’t operate because of social distancing concerns and which can.
The reality is that none of them can. That doesn’t mean the services should be stopped.

Have a friend who is on a transplant waiting list. Transplants have been suspended since this started. The friend is getting sicker by the day and it’s showing up in their weekly tests. It’s so distressing that nothing is moving along. And that hope of being called up any day for the transplant is no longer there at all.

wakka12

Keep hearing posters say the lockdown is 'killing more people than the virus' because of the stress of fear and being at home, is there anything to back up this statement? People are exercising more, working less and sleeping more. Heart related deaths should obviously be down right now rather than up. Considering they are the people that are always complaining about media scaremongering about the virus, maybe they should look at what they are also saying, there are valid reasons why a lockdown needs to be lifted but obviously it is saving more lives. It is the one benefit youd have to give it..

SusieBlue

random_banter wrote: »

Have a friend who is on a transplant waiting list. Transplants have been suspended since this started. The friend is getting sicker by the day and it’s showing up in their weekly tests. It’s so distressing that nothing is moving along. And that hope of being called up any day for the transplant is no longer there at all.

That’s absolutely horrific, I can’t believe they’ve suspended transplants too. Its disgraceful that they are doing this while lecturing the public about the numbers not being low enough.
What about the numbers of people like your friend? And people waiting on cancer diagnosis and treatments?
Do their lives not matter?

There will be a national scandal in the aftermath of this when the amount of people who couldn’t access healthcare services becomes clear. Heads will roll over this, it will make the cervical check issues look like nothing because it seems to be across all departments of care.

RebelButtMunch

In Phase 5 it says this:
"Resume tourist travel to offshore
islands. Social distancing and hygiene
measures continue for public and
private transport as passengers
increase. Specific measures at ports and
airports"

Does that mean if we go abroad and return in that phase we don't have to self quarantine? With the assumption that by then we'll be returning from a country that's in the same shape, if not better.

Princess Consuela Bananahammock

the kelt wrote: »

Sure what difference does the R number make anyway?

The R number was where it was needed to be at the time they were deciding whether to relax the restrictions the last time according to Simon Harris.

Then they just stopped talking about the R number anyway.

It's just one factor. Other things that need to happen before restrictions are eased are making sure there;s enough ICU beds, PPE erquipement. There were fien in total - I think a drop in death rate was one of the others.

tobefrank321

wakka12 wrote: »

Keep hearing posters say the lockdown is 'killing more people than the virus' because of the stress of fear and being at home, is there anything to back up this statement? People are exercising more, working less and sleeping more. Heart related deaths should obviously be down right now rather than up. Considering they are the people that are always complaining about media scaremongering about the virus, maybe they should look at what they are also saying, there are valid reasons why a lockdown needs to be lifted but obviously it is saving more lives. It is the one benefit youd have to give it..

The only way you can tell this is to take the total number of excess deaths and subtract covid 19 deaths. This would give you a rough idea of non covid 19 excess deaths. Not perfect but a rough idea. There may be a few months of a lag. Sadly we may see a larger number of cancer deaths in 2021 for example due to delayed screening or diagnosis. Which is why its vital these services are up and running especially in counties where covid 19 has had minimal impact or has declined hugely.

Loozer

wakka12 wrote: »

Keep hearing posters say the lockdown is 'killing more people than the virus' because of the stress of fear and being at home, is there anything to back up this statement? People are exercising more, working less and sleeping more. Heart related deaths should obviously be down right now rather than up. Considering they are the people that are always complaining about media scaremongering about the virus, maybe they should look at what they are also saying, there are valid reasons why a lockdown needs to be lifted but obviously it is saving more lives. It is the one benefit youd have to give it..

You didn't think before posting this?

SusieBlue

wakka12 wrote: »

Keep hearing posters say the lockdown is 'killing more people than the virus' because of the stress of fear and being at home, is there anything to back up this statement? People are exercising more, working less and sleeping more. Heart related deaths should obviously be down right now rather than up. Considering they are the people that are always complaining about media scaremongering about the virus, maybe they should look at what they are also saying, there are valid reasons why a lockdown needs to be lifted but obviously it is saving more lives. It is the one benefit youd have to give it..

I don’t think people necessarily mean it’s killing more people right now, but that the economic consequences are going to lead to an increase in suicides down the line because of the mass unemployment.
There is also going to be an increase in preventable deaths of young people who couldn’t access cancer diagnosis and had their treatments delayed, as those services have been suspended since March with no end date in sight.
All organ transplants have also been cancelled.

It might possibly be saving a small amount of lives right now , but it’s at the cost of other lives down the line. And the futures of people whose lives will be ruined from the economic destruction that is coming.

ChelseaRentBoy

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

In Phase 5 it says this:
"Resume tourist travel to offshore
islands. Social distancing and hygiene
measures continue for public and
private transport as passengers
increase. Specific measures at ports and
airports"

Does that mean if we go abroad and return in that phase we don't have to self quarantine? With the assumption that by then we'll be returning from a country that's in the same shape, if not better.

It would be nice if they explained "specific measures".

KrustyUCC

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

In Phase 5 it says this:
"Resume tourist travel to offshore
islands. Social distancing and hygiene
measures continue for public and
private transport as passengers
increase. Specific measures at ports and
airports"

Does that mean if we go abroad and return in that phase we don't have to self quarantine? With the assumption that by then we'll be returning from a country that's in the same shape, if not better.

I think that section refers to the likes of the Aran Islands

growleaves

SusieBlue wrote: »

I don’t think people necessarily mean it’s killing more people right now, but that the economic consequences are going to lead to an increase in suicides down the line because of the mass unemployment.
There is also going to be an increase in preventable deaths of young people who couldn’t access cancer diagnosis and had their treatments delayed, as those services have been suspended since March with no end date in sight.
All organ transplants have also been cancelled.

It might possibly be saving a small amount of lives right now , but it’s at the cost of other lives down the line. And the futures of people whose lives will be ruined from the economic destruction that is coming.

Isolation is a high risk factor for depression and early onset of dementia also.

KrustyUCC

SusieBlue wrote: »

I don’t think people necessarily mean it’s killing more people right now, but that the economic consequences are going to lead to an increase in suicides down the line because of the mass unemployment.
There is also going to be an increase in preventable deaths of young people who couldn’t access cancer diagnosis and had their treatments delayed, as those services have been suspended since March with no end date in sight.
All organ transplants have also been cancelled.

It might possibly be saving a small amount of lives right now , but it’s at the cost of other lives down the line. And the futures of people whose lives will be ruined from the economic destruction that is coming.

Lack of travel and not seeing friends, family, partners etc for months on end is also causing huge hardship

tobefrank321

The high risk areas in the last few weeks seem to be workplaces such as meat factories where workers work in close proximity for 8 hours a day, without the ability to move around.

A lot of workplaces will need to move to 2 or 3 shift a day operations to keep workers socially distanced with deep cleans between shifts.

Hopefully the HSA can advise companies on this.

Ginger n Lemon

More good news coming out of these kamikaze countries who lift restrictions fast, posted today 11 May

"CZECH REPUBLIC CONTINUES EASING RESTRICTIONS

In the Czech Republic, shopping centres, hairdressers, restaurants and pubs with outdoor seating and cinemas, museums and theatres will reopen today.

In addition, students in the last year of middle and high school will be allowed to return to class, but with no more than 15 to a classroom. The number of people allowed to participate in public events has been raised to 100, including sports events and training, church services and weddings.

Czech border closures have also been eased. Bus and rail transport to neighbouring countries will resume, first only to Germany, then to Austria. Flights to a few European cities have also resumed.

The Czech coronavirus state of emergency is set to expire on May 17, with more restrictions to be lifted on May 25, including the reopening of hotels, restaurants and pubs with indoor seating and public gatherings of up to 500 people."

And Czechs share borders with like 4 countries.... yet we are dreading whats going on around NI border + our airports. I think a bit of courage would be beneficial when making decisions at this stage.