Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

MrDavid1976

Reading the Irish Times today and TH yesterday going on about complacency I foresee that the medics will look for a delay (I don’t think the politicians will grant it).

Why the delay? To get Test, track and trace down to 72 hours from 7 - 9 days. Why is this not happening after 3 months - HSE failure. Remember that they have been written a blank cheque and given the services of all the resources of the State.

FishOnABike

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Dr Holohan said the findings emphasised the challenge facing the Department of Health in conveying the message about the potential impact of a second wave of cases.

"43p is quite a high percentage of people who believe that this is over and the work is done here," he said.

"That's just a little cause for concern that we have."

Fintan, did you respond to the survey saying you think its over? it aint over until Tony H sings

Seriously why is he concerned with what the public thinks? he needs to worry about hospital beds and ICU.

Because as things reopen it will be important that social distancing and respiratory and hand hygiene are maintained to a very high standard. Work practices may have to be modified and stricter sanitisation routines implemented.

If people think this is over and the work is done they are less likely to take the precautions they should do and the rate of infection will increase again. If this happens it may delay the current plan to lift restrictions, or in the worst case, result in restrictions being reimposed.

It's important that people realise that what we have done is only the beginning. As restrictions are lifted things will not be exactly as they were before. It will be a new normal and new hygiene habits will be needed. Ongoing vigilance will be required for the foreseeable future.

MrDavid1976

FishOnABike wrote: »

Because as things reopen it will be important that social distancing and respiratory and hand hygiene are maintained to a very high standard. Work practices may have to be modified and stricter sanitisation routines implemented.

If people think this is over and the work is done they are less likely to take the precautions they should do and the rate of infection will increase again. If this happens it may delay the current plan to lift restrictions, or in the worst case, result in restrictions being reimposed.

It's important that people realise that what we have done is only the beginning. As restrictions are lifted things will not be exactly as they were before. It will be a new normal and new hygiene habits will be needed. Ongoing vigilance will be required for the foreseeable future.

The question was actually “Do you think the worst is over?” Presenting it the way he did is treating people like children to suit an agenda.

pjohnson

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

The question was actually “Do you think the worst is over?” Presenting it the way he did is treating people like children to suit an agenda.

Well certain parts of the public have shown they need to be treated like children.

MrDavid1976

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

The question was actually “Do you think the worst is over?” Presenting it the way he did is treating people like children to suit an agenda.

If people do become complacent then there is a risk of a second wave that sends our numbers drastically up. So the worst can be in the future if there's a **** up.

MrDavid1976

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If people do become complacent then there is a risk of a second wave that sends our numbers drastically up. So the worst can be in the future if there's a **** up.

They are two separate things. Educate people on the new normal. Simples. But treating people like children is obscene - the vast majority of people have been very compliant and many are frightened ****less by the propaganda campaign not to mention that they will not have employment and the country will be broken.

MrDavid1976

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

They are two separate things. Educate people on the new normal. Simples. But treating people like children is obscene - the vast majority of people have been very compliant and many are frightened ****less by the propaganda campaign not to mention that they will not have employment and the country will be broken.

I wouldn't call it a propaganda campaign tbh and those who are viewing it as such, possibly do need to be treated as children.

FishOnABike

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

The question was actually “Do you think the worst is over?” Presenting it the way he did is treating people like children to suit an agenda.

There's a world of a difference between "the worst is over" and "this is over and the work is done".

We have passed a local maximum. Whether there is another or more local maxima depends very much on people continuing to do what they need to for the foreseeable future and on any new localised outbreaks being quickly identified and suppressed.

It's a good start. More a case of 'Tús maith, leath na hoibre' than the work is done. There's a long way to go yet.

MrDavid1976

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I wouldn't call it a propaganda campaign tbh and those who are viewing it as such, possibly do need to be treated as children.

You will find that behavioural scientists use the tricks of propaganda to get the message across. It can be used for nefarious and normal purposes. Do you honestly think that there has been no discussions by the behavioural scientists involved in this campaign where they have not discussed the fear factor?

In my opinion (and I am neither stupid nor a child) it would have been far better to actually acknowledge once again the positives from the efforts and reinforce the new normal than you interpret that question in such a scolding way. I watched the conference and was shocked by this strategy - the heads down from his colleague at the table was very obvious also.

Quite frankly, if there is any further delay it is because the experts have not got the right systems in place to test, track and trace. New Zealand were able to do this weeks ago as have Denmark. I saw under a board here that someone said they would not trust the HSE to run a bath let alone the country.

prunudo

This is the part of Tony Holohan's attitude that annoys me, its the whole headmaster stick that he can't get away from when he doesn't like what how the general are behaving.

If I was asked, do I think this the worst is over? I would have been part of the 43% that voted yes.
Do I think its over, far from it but with any new illness it will take the weakest first, so while case numbers may continue to rise I think the numbers dying from it will reduce. So yes if people dying is the worst case scenario then the worst is over. Imo.

That said the knock on consequences are going to get worse but thats an economic crisis not medical.

beggars_bush

prunudo wrote: »

This is the part of Tony Holohan's attitude that annoys me, its the whole headmaster stick that he can't get away from when he doesn't like what how the general are behaving.

If I was asked, do I think this the worst is over? I would have been part of the 43% that voted yes.
Do I think its over, far from it but with any new illness it will take the weakest first, so while case numbers may continue to rise I think the numbers dying from it will reduce. So yes if people dying is the worst case scenario then the worst is over. Imo.

That said the knock on consequences are going to get worse but thats an economic crisis not medical.

Some people just don't like being told what to do

hmmm

prunudo wrote: »

Do I think its over, far from it but with any new illness it will take the weakest first, so while case numbers may continue to rise I think the numbers dying from it will reduce. So yes if people dying is the worst case scenario then the worst is over. Imo.

That assumes that everyone has got it and recovered, which isn't the case. When we get antibody tests up and running we'll know more about how many people have got it. It's probably going to be less than 10% based on testing elsewhere.

There are lots more people to die in this country if they get it, particularly if our hospitals are overwhelmed.

frillyleaf

Can anyone see the Irish times article in relation to delays in testing and contract and possibly affecting restrictions being eased?

Loozer

Is this why they wouldn't confirm the numbers needed to relax restrictions

Because it's actually the test track trace that's the issue but they're deflecting from it

is_that_so

frillyleaf wrote: »

Can anyone see the Irish times article in relation to delays in testing and contract and possibly affecting restrictions being eased?

This is all you need to know. The rest is rehashed.

Testing people for Covid-19 and tracing all their contacts is taking an average of about nine days, according to the Health Service Executive (HSE), a multiple of the time most experts say the process needs to be to stop the virus spreading.

The median time from referring a person for a test to sending the result for contact tracing is five days, according to David Walsh, HSE national director of community operations.

FintanMcluskey

pjohnson wrote: »

Because we havent been as stupid at handling this as Britain. Despite some thinking Britain have done well.

How has Ireland out performed Britain?

frillyleaf

frillyleaf wrote: »

Can anyone see the Irish times article in relation to delays in testing and contract and possibly affecting restrictions being eased?

This is the issue and has been spoken about in some areas of media for weeks.

Testing and contact tracing is STILL not up to speed to the numbers required . THIS is the fault of the HSE and Government not the public. But the public is being punished and the economy is hugely suffering until this gets sorted. Week after week goes by and testing is still not up to the number they need , neither is tracing.

This is a huge issue.

is_that_so

Loozer wrote: »

Is this why they wouldn't confirm the numbers needed to relax restrictions

Because it's actually the test track trace that's the issue but they're deflecting from it

No, I think they just want the numbers as low as possible by next Monday. They can use that 3 week period to very slowly open things up. There are still issues around getting the testing regime running as required but that original self-isolation advice applies.

Assetbacked

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If people do become complacent then there is a risk of a second wave that sends our numbers drastically up. So the worst can be in the future if there's a **** up.

We don't actually know how big the risk actually is. Barely any of the population have been tested so we don't even have an idea what sort of spread there has been and what there would be if we just went fully back to normal. We essentially only tested those with strong symptoms which means we will only catch the 20% who experience proper symptoms worth testing. If we have tested 20% of the population potentially the virus has gone through us already.

In any event, arguably we never even had a first wave given the worst of it was isolated to nursing homes. In reality, it is difficult to see compliance being so stringent if another lockdown was introduced so I think the reason they are going so slowly is because they won't be able to lockdown again.

frillyleaf

is_that_so wrote: »

This is all you need to know. The rest is rehashed.

Thank you. So we are still easing restrictions on the 18th ?

They surely can’t extend them again on Friday?

the kelt

frillyleaf wrote: »

Can anyone see the Irish times article in relation to delays in testing and contract and possibly affecting restrictions being eased?

I raised it yesterday, HSE admitted yesterday that its... (and im going to use the stock HSE Coronavirus Vagueness reply) "its not where it needs to be" on an interview on Newstalk yesterday.

Crucially "thats a further piece of work we need to do over the next couple of weeks"

A couple of weeks conveniently brings us up to after the June Bank Holiday weekend of course. Also as a pure coincidence when we had the last update for easing of restrictions it purely coincidentally was pushed back a couple of weeks and the next day revealed as luck would have it that our testing would be up to speed within that couple of weeks, phew,, what luck!

Doctor acknowledges issues with contact tracing

“I don’t understand why we are having difficulties with contact tracing,” she said.

“We know that there are retired colleagues who have offered their services to be part of contact tracing because they can’t do the face-to-face consultations,” she said.

“And yet they have told me they still have not been contacted.”



https://www.newstalk.com/news/doctor...ckdown-1012883

Jinglejangle69

Just listening to newstalk and Italy are in phase 2 and it's only allowed out for exercise and a few shops open.

Still stay at home unless necessary.

Where is this stuff coming from here that we are way behind other countries and are destroying our economy yet other countries are in a path to glory?

Next they are talking about Spain and Germany.

VillageIdiot71

Polar101 wrote: »

I guess if you include all age deaths in your calculations, you can't get the right results. Wouldn't you have to compare the percentage of over 65 deaths to the percentage of the over 65 population of the whole country?

Would it change the comparative result, though? The deaths, globally are overwhelmingly among old people.

So maybe knock 10% off the death figure, and there you go.

http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/health-emergencies/coronavirus-covid-19/statements/statement-older-people-are-at-highest-risk-from-covid-19,-but-all-must-act-to-prevent-community-spread

"We know that over 95% of these deaths occurred in those older than 60 years. More than 50% of all deaths were people aged 80 years or older. We also know from reports that 8 out of 10 deaths are occurring in individuals with at least one underlying co-morbidity, in particular those with cardiovascular diseases/hypertension and diabetes, but also with a range of other chronic underlying conditions."

is_that_so

frillyleaf wrote: »

Thank you. So we are still easing restrictions on the 18th ?

They surely can’t extend them again on Friday?

I think it's happening on Monday. The testing systems ticks some of the boxes to be "world class", the big one in terms of capacity is just about there. Other stuff will take longer than 18 May but probably "good enough" for now.

the kelt

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Just listening to newstalk and Italy are in phase 2 and it's only allowed out for exercise and a few shops open.

Still stay at home unless necessary.

Where is this stuff coming from here that we are way behind other countries and are destroying our economy yet other countries are in a path to glory?

Next they are talking about Spain and Germany.

https://www.euronews.com/2020/03/19/coronavirus-which-countries-are-under-lockdown-and-who-s-next

Nermal

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1259945593805221891

How great is this guy?

niallo27

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Just listening to newstalk and Italy are in phase 2 and it's only allowed out for exercise and a few shops open.

Still stay at home unless necessary.

Where is this stuff coming from here that we are way behind other countries and are destroying our economy yet other countries are in a path to glory?

Next they are talking about Spain and Germany.

From last Monday (4 May), for instance, it is now allowed to visit family members - provided they live in the same region.

One of the worst hit countries in the world.

setanta1984

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Just listening to newstalk and Italy are in phase 2 and it's only allowed out for exercise and a few shops open.

Still stay at home unless necessary.

Where is this stuff coming from here that we are way behind other countries and are destroying our economy yet other countries are in a path to glory?

Next they are talking about Spain and Germany.

There you go, Italy as an example.


Those things are between 2 and 3 months away in ireland.

Jinglejangle69

setanta1984 wrote: »

There you go, Italy as an example.


Those things are between 2 and 3 months away in ireland.

Strange.

That's not what they said in newstalk.

Also saying Italy already thinking some of the measures are too soon and are reviewing.

pjohnson

Nermal wrote: »

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1259945593805221891

How great is this guy?

Doubt his child will call him great :pac: