Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

_Kaiser_

pjohnson wrote: »

Tbf some still cant understand how we somehow didn't achieve the worst case scenarios!

Partly because of the quite sensible and surprisingly fast restrictions that were implemented, partly because the virus is not an instant death sentence to even those who are vulnerable and partly because a "worst case scenario" is a theoretical model that rarely bears out but does drive the preventative measures needed.

But, mission accomplished... Now its time to move onto the equally vital process of restarting life and the economy.

growleaves

Tommybojangles wrote: »

Theres a lovely symmetry between the case numbers dropping down below 200 and the comparisons to flu reappearing in these threads.

I was making comparisons to the flu at the height of the panic when posters were predicting case fatality rates of 6% and 7% in mid-March.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Is there even a tiny chance that Phase 1 won't go ahead on the 18th? Haven't been watching but surely Tony and team can't be spouting the same stuff about numbers are too high etc etc.

Lyle

road_high wrote: »

Sorry to hear this- what is this rubbish i was reading yesterday about schools not being ready to re-open even in September? Plot has been lost here- it's 4 months away ffs.

The not being ready in September stuff is just a shot across the bow to the DoE to let them know they need to act very quickly in the next few weeks to provide concrete info and funding to schools so they can sort out re-opening in September. There's a lot of work goes on in the summer months anyway in setting up the following school year, now there are layers and layers of other considerations for managers and principals to have to contend with while they also go about their usual duties in prepping for the new term in the Autumn.

I wouldn't deem their points to be rubbish either, there's a staggering amount of variables in the day to day operations of schools, not only on the school grounds in the daily comings and goings of teachers, pupils and administrative/management staff but in terms of transport to and from school in the mornings and afternoons on busses or in taxis, the mixing of children with learning difficulties or underlying health concerns in those transport environments, as well as in the classroom and wider school, is a potentially huge problem when people depend on them. They are, in many instances, completely vital in getting children to school.

Cleaning, I think, is the other real main financial burden. Schools are going to need a fairly big chunk of change to be able to disinfect the school every day, there's really no way around that and most schools simply could not afford it the way they're budgeted for now.

These are real, hard considerations, not rubbish, that the DoE has to provide certainty and forward planning guidelines on and schools are dead right to put pressure on them to do so for the protection of staff and children, and indeed the wider community around those schools as well, in particular because Irish schools aren't set up in districts and you have kids who live in a different county than the one they go to school in, for example. The pupils of one school can cover a vast bit of ground when you trace them all back to their home communities.

While everyone is anxious to get kids back to school, it has to be done safely and any points raised by education professionals shouldn't immediately be rubbished, nobody wants to bring a school back and have an outbreak or end up with any sick kids or staff. On April 29th I think there had been 5 instances of potential Kawasaki disease in children in Ireland and that's with the kids all at home for weeks already, it would be appalling to see school rushed back and then suddenly there's outbreaks and then we see that Kawasaki disease isn't so rare after all.

This is a novel virus so we just don't know what impact it could have in groups of children because most countries got them out of the firing line as quickly as possible, or drastically changed the way schooling happens on a day to day basis, and we also don't know how strain mutations could alter the profile of the disease in the course of the next few months. Indeed we don't know the full extent of this with adults either, it's all just too new.

A key indicator in figuring out disease severity appears to be the level of viral load in an environment and then the people in that environment, and in schools the potential for a dangerous level of viral load is quite high if not managed with extreme care. To bring kids back in September, the way our education system runs is going to have to change. That takes time and money; four months isn't a lot of time and schools don't have that much money.

Jinglejangle69

MattS1 wrote: »

Is there even a tiny chance that Phase 1 won't go ahead on the 18th? Haven't been watching but surely Tony and team can't be spouting the same stuff about numbers are too high etc etc.

No.

Just panickers here who said the government wouldn't have a plan 2 weeks ago.

They did and they went quite for a few days.

Then back to how the plan doesn't go far enough.

Ginger n Lemon

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Ok, so during the flu (0.1%) our economy is a monster truck, unstoppable.

During covid (0.5%) we lockdown, create 30% unemployment, lose 10,000 + jobs permanently (probably up to 100,000 in the end) and let our children go uneducated for the better part of 6 months?

Something does not add up here.

Monster trucks are usually not very economical, are they?

Ginger n Lemon

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

No.

Just panickers here who said the government wouldn't have a plan 2 weeks ago.

They did and they went quite for a few days.

Then back to how the plan doesn't go far enough.

I hope you dont jinx it now.

I hope Tony H wont read your self confident post and have other ideas.

road_high

Yehuda Easy Motor wrote: »

Is there even a tiny chance that Phase 1 won't go ahead on the 18th? Haven't been watching but surely Tony and team can't be spouting the same stuff about numbers are too high etc etc.

From what I’m seeing on social media- very little or there will be war from business- so many are announcing their reopening with staff and plans in place. It’d be like trying to patch up a leaky dam at this stage.

FintanMcluskey

Deleted User wrote: »

So you don't have any evidence for your bold statement. Also, it is notifiable here and in the UK.

https://www.hpsc.ie/notifiablediseases/listofnotifiablediseases/

Now, I ask again, where is the evidence for your bold statement?

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/faq.htm

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(19)30328-5/fulltext

Jinglejangle69

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I hope you dont jinx it now.

I hope Tony H wont read your self confident post and have other ideas.

Well I was correct two weeks ago.

People who are patient and calm can see there is no conspiracy to lock us in forever and there is a sensible plan.

Others choose to panic and loose their marbles second guessing Tony Hoolalan even though the government overruled him 2 weeks ago.

I'd rather be calm confident and wait before loosing my cool.

But different strokes...

Rodin

Im hoping things will be relaxed sooner.
No more than 20k non-essential journey until July 20th is ridiculous

FintanMcluskey

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

No.

Just panickers here who said the government wouldn't have a plan 2 weeks ago.

They did and they went quite for a few days.

Then back to how the plan doesn't go far enough.

A plan? A plan that included the great Leo sitting on the couch on national television reading his roadmap of a scrap of paper!
Some thought and debate went into that alright.

If any junior level employee did what Leo did that night on the LLS they would have KPI's out their a#s for the rest of their working lives

Spanish Eyes

Beasty wrote: »

oops! Apologies - locked the wrong one

Banned.

FintanMcluskey

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/faq.htm

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(19)30328-5/fulltext

See nothing in those two resources saying that influenza has a true mortality rate of 0.5%.

What exactly were you trying to say? What was your critical analysis? If you want to admit, that there is a significant difference in mortality rates, I won't think any less of you.

Rodin

Rodin wrote: »

Im hoping things will be relaxed sooner.
No more than 20k non-essential journey until July 20th is ridiculous

I agree with this by the way.

FintanMcluskey

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

A plan? A plan that included the great Leo sitting on the couch on national television reading his roadmap of a scrap of paper!
Some thought and debate went into that alright.

If any junior level employee did what Leo did that night on the LLS they would have KPI's out their a#s for the rest of their working lives

100% or like his speech, and now it's "LEOS LETTERS TIME" this one in from little Barry from ballymun, uncle leo, when can my daddy walk again??
absolute tripe of the highest order!!

_Kaiser_

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Well I was correct two weeks ago.

People who are patient and calm can see there is no conspiracy to lock us in forever and there is a sensible plan.

Others choose to panic and loose their marbles second guessing Tony Hoolalan even though the government overruled him 2 weeks ago.

I'd rather be calm confident and wait before loosing my cool.

But different strokes...

They overruled him on one thing - the over 70s (who he wanted to keep locked in for the rest of the summer).

He did get his (in my view unnecessary and unjustified) extension though.

Rodin

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I agree with this by the way.

I can't go to the beach until July 20th but can go in to a public library next week.
Scandalous.

FintanMcluskey

Deleted User wrote: »

See nothing in those two resources saying that influenza has a true mortality rate of 0.5%.

What exactly were you trying to say? What was your critical analysis? If you want to admit, that there is a significant difference in mortality rates, I won't think any less of you.

The mortality rate has dropped from the initial official rate of 3-4% over 2 months. I wouldn't think another 0.4% drop is off the cards when/if testing is increased and picks up all asymptomatic cases

Spanish Eyes

Just obey the rules and advice. It is not that difficult. It won't last forever even if there are a few mavericks trying to outdo the advice. As always.

But there will always be the rebels. Anyway, where the feck can you go anyway.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

It's ironic that it's probably safer to travel over 20km now with not many on buses/trains than it will be when it is allowed and everyone can go back on them.

FintanMcluskey

rusty cole wrote: »

100% or like his speech, and now it's "LEOS LETTERS TIME" this one in from little Barry from ballymun, uncle leo, when can my daddy walk again??
absolute tripe of the highest order!!

Haha spat out my sardines reading that!

growleaves

pjohnson wrote: »

Tbf some still cant understand how we somehow didn't achieve the worst case scenarios!

The most dire worst case scenario I saw was a guy on boards who predicted a mortality rate of 21%.

Dr. Neil Ferguson predicted 670 deaths per 100,000, that's worse than the overall death tolls for the Spanish Flu.

The case fatality rate, the age profile of victims and the experience of non-locked-down countries place limits on these fever dreams, before even considering overwhelmed ICUs.

BonsaiKitten

Lyle wrote: »

The not being ready in September stuff is just a shot across the bow to the DoE to let them know they need to act very quickly in the next few weeks to provide concrete info and funding to schools so they can sort out re-opening in September. There's a lot of work goes on in the summer months anyway in setting up the following school year, now there are layers and layers of other considerations for managers and principals to have to contend with while they also go about their usual duties in prepping for the new term in the Autumn.

I wouldn't deem their points to be rubbish either, there's a staggering amount of variables in the day to day operations of schools, not only on the school grounds in the daily comings and goings of teachers, pupils and administrative/management staff but in terms of transport to and from school in the mornings and afternoons on busses or in taxis, the mixing of children with learning difficulties or underlying health concerns in those transport environments, as well as in the classroom and wider school, is a potentially huge problem when people depend on them. They are, in many instances, completely vital in getting children to school.

Couldn't agree more with your post. Just look at the nonsensical reopening guidelines that have been issued to schools in the UK. They are setting the schools up for failure and giving no guidance on the tricky issues.

It's important that our department of Ed plan the school reopenings carefully and give clear advice. This takes time to put into place. There is no point in rushing to open without getting the supports and funding ready. I am all for us going back (primary teacher) but the staff in my school can't just wander in tomorrow and open the doors again.

MrDavid1976

Lyle wrote: »

The not being ready in September stuff is just a shot across the bow to the DoE to let them know they need to act very quickly in the next few weeks to provide concrete info and funding to schools so they can sort out re-opening in September. There's a lot of work goes on in the summer months anyway in setting up the following school year, now there are layers and layers of other considerations for managers and principals to have to contend with while they also go about their usual duties in prepping for the new term in the Autumn.

I wouldn't deem their points to be rubbish either, there's a staggering amount of variables in the day to day operations of schools, not only on the school grounds in the daily comings and goings of teachers, pupils and administrative/management staff but in terms of transport to and from school in the mornings and afternoons on busses or in taxis, the mixing of children with learning difficulties or underlying health concerns in those transport environments, as well as in the classroom and wider school, is a potentially huge problem when people depend on them. They are, in many instances, completely vital in getting children to school.

Cleaning, I think, is the other real main financial burden. Schools are going to need a fairly big chunk of change to be able to disinfect the school every day, there's really no way around that and most schools simply could not afford it the way they're budgeted for now.

These are real, hard considerations, not rubbish, that the DoE has to provide certainty and forward planning guidelines on and schools are dead right to put pressure on them to do so for the protection of staff and children, and indeed the wider community around those schools as well, in particular because Irish schools aren't set up in districts and you have kids who live in a different county than the one they go to school in, for example. The pupils of one school can cover a vast bit of ground when you trace them all back to their home communities.

While everyone is anxious to get kids back to school, it has to be done safely and any points raised by education professionals shouldn't immediately be rubbished, nobody wants to bring a school back and have an outbreak or end up with any sick kids or staff. On April 29th I think there had been 5 instances of potential Kawasaki disease in children in Ireland and that's with the kids all at home for weeks already, it would be appalling to see school rushed back and then suddenly there's outbreaks and then we see that Kawasaki disease isn't so rare after all.

This is a novel virus so we just don't know what impact it could have in groups of children because most countries got them out of the firing line as quickly as possible, or drastically changed the way schooling happens on a day to day basis, and we also don't know how strain mutations could alter the profile of the disease in the course of the next few months. Indeed we don't know the full extent of this with adults either, it's all just too new.

A key indicator in figuring out disease severity appears to be the level of viral load in an environment and then the people in that environment, and in schools the potential for a dangerous level of viral load is quite high if not managed with extreme care. To bring kids back in September, the way our education system runs is going to have to change. That takes time and money; four months isn't a lot of time and schools don't have that much money.

We should allow a choice for parents in the 2020/2021 school year:

Hold them back a year. Home school. Keep them inside, cancel Christmas and communions and confirmations etc.

_Kaiser_

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Just obey the rules and advice. It is not that difficult. It won't last forever if there are few mavericks trying to outdo the advice.

But there will always be the rebels. Anyway, where the feck can you go anyway.

It's already lasted 2 months. The initial 4-6 weeks were entirely correct and justified to get a handle on things and get people's attention.

We've moved beyond that now into trying to deflect from the standard incompetence of the HSE, our weak ineffective politicians, and being paralysed by indecision.

As to where people can go. How about to see family or loved ones they haven't seen since mid-March, or to buy things that support the local and domestic economy, or even just to restore their mental health?

There's a lot more to it than just the medical aspects.

FintanMcluskey

growleaves wrote: »

The most dire worst case scenario I saw was a guy on boards who predicted a mortality rate of 21%.

Dr. Neil Ferguson predicted 670 deaths per 100,000, that's worse than the overall death tolls for the Spanish Flu.

The case fatality rate, the age profile of victims and the experience of non-locked-down countries place limits on these fever dreams, before even considering overwhelmed ICUs.

21% I think I know who that was.

Its dropped from that level in 2 months, it will drop further when asymptomatic cases are detected

FintanMcluskey

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

The mortality rate has dropped from the initial official rate of 3-4% over 2 months. I wouldn't think another 0.4% drop is off the cards when/if testing is increased and picks up all asymptomatic cases

The mortality rate at the moment isn't 0.5%. Thats including expected best case asymptomatic cases. You didn't actually think confirmed fatality percentage was down 0.5%. Did you? I suppose you can't let facts get in the way of your narrative.

Spanish Eyes

Rodin wrote: »

I can't go to the beach until July 20th but can go in to a public library next week.
Scandalous.

Beaches are highly overrated. Sand is not on my agenda. It is just so unforgiving.

moonage

Deleted User wrote: »

Mate. It's about 5 times more mortality than flu. I'm expecting it's true mortality rate to be about 0.5%.

If you can find me one peer reviewed paper that says that it had an expected true fatality rate of 0.1% (seasonal flu). I'll close my account.

But you won"t because you are lying and/or can't understand primary evidence.

Oh, you "expect" its true mortality rate to be about 0.5%.

Where did you pull that figure out of?