Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

Rodin

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Beaches are highly overrated. Sand is not on my agenda. It is just unforgiving.

I like the space and the sound of the water.

Penfailed

growleaves wrote: »

The population of the world was 1 billion in 1804.

That is roughly how many people we can sustain without a functioning world economy, if we are to essentially cancel large significant parts of the modern world

I'd like to see your workings out for that.

Spanish Eyes

Rodin wrote: »

I like the space and the sound of the water.

I do too, love waterfalls, rivers, and so on. Always did.

But sand is a pain in the x

Penfailed

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

I have always doubted anything changing on the 18th.
When there is no opposition to the restrictions the easy option is to continue extending them.

I reckon things will go to plan on the 18th.

Nermal

Deleted User wrote: »

Mate. It's about 5 times more mortality than flu. I'm expecting it's true mortality rate to be about 0.5%.

If you can find me one peer reviewed paper that says that it had an expected true fatality rate of 0.1% (seasonal flu). I'll close my account.

But you won"t because you are lying and/or can't understand primary evidence.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.26.20079822v1.full.pdf

Kobe, Japan - 69 fatalities as of April 25th, study estimated 27,333-59,221 cases, fatality rate 0.12%-0.25%.

I don't expect you to close your account, just post less.

_Kaiser_

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I do too, love waterfalls, rivers, and so on. Always did.

But sand is a pain in the x

Anakin?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2tLf1JO5bvE

Nermal

Nermal wrote: »

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.26.20079822v1.full.pdf

Kobe, Japan - 69 fatalities as of April 25th, study estimated 27,333-59,221 cases, fatality rate 0.12%-0.25%.

I don't expect you to close your account, just post less.

That's a pre print. It hasn't been peer reviewed yet.

Where are you getting the fatality ratio from?

Going deeper in this, they are taking serum samples from people who are already getting bloods. Of course you are going to have higher percentage of people with covid-19 in hospital settings. Don't know how you could extrapolate that across the entire population of Kobe including healthy people.

Interesting research but flawed.

niallo27

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

No.

Just panickers here who said the government wouldn't have a plan 2 weeks ago.

They did and they went quite for a few days.

Then back to how the plan doesn't go far enough.

No we have been fairly consistent, that the length of the restrictions do not correlate with the present threat and the simple question as to why we are one of the slowest in the world to lift restrictions.

WhiteMemento9

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Ok, so during the flu (0.1%) our economy is a monster truck, unstoppable.

During covid (0.5%) we lockdown, create 30% unemployment, lose 10,000 + jobs permanently (probably up to 100,000 in the end) and let our children go uneducated for the better part of 6 months?

Something does not add up here.

It doesn't add up because you are missing some logic blocks like hospitalization rates and overwhelmed health system.

frillyleaf

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

I have always doubted anything changing on the 18th.
When there is no opposition to the restrictions the easy option is to continue extending them.

Businesses have been given the 18th to open up. They won’t extend the restrictions on the 18th again. I think he referring to testing and contact tracing

Colibri

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Beaches are highly overrated. Sand is not on my agenda. It is just so unforgiving.

I don't like sand. It's coarse, and rough, and irritating, and it gets everywhere.


edit: damnit Kaiser :pac:

Spanish Eyes

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

It's already lasted 2 months. The initial 4-6 weeks were entirely correct and justified to get a handle on things and get people's attention.

We've moved beyond that now into trying to deflect from the standard incompetence of the HSE, our weak ineffective politicians, and being paralysed by indecision.

As to where people can go. How about to see family or loved ones they haven't seen since mid-March, or to buy things that support the local and domestic economy, or even just to restore their mental health?

There's a lot more to it than just the medical aspects.

Be, or pretend you are an adult FGS. This is for everyone's protection, WTF.

Nothing stopping your from seeing your loved ones at the moment. Nothing, as long as you are metres away from them.

Penfailed

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Flu is not a notifiable illness in most countries across the globe.
Flu deaths can be assumed using excess deaths. Those excess deaths are often in the hundreds of thousands in Europe.

So, you make a statement and can't back it up...common theme.

growleaves

Penfailed wrote: »

I'd like to see your workings out for that.

I'm writing on my phone atm. I will try to write out my reasoning and get back to you in next few days.

In the meantime if you are bored, read this mini-book (87 pages) explaining the interdependencies of the global economy:

https://www.hedweb.com/bgcharlton/modernization-imperative.html

Also Malthus:

http://www.gutenberg.org/files/4239/4239-h/4239-h.htm

(Not trying to dump a reading list on you. Please only bother if you are quite bored.)

FintanMcluskey

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Be, or pretend you are an adult FGS. This is for everyone's protection, WTF.

Nothing stopping your from seeing your loved ones at the moment. Nothing, as long as you are metres away from them.

Everyones protection? How are restrictions protecting the only group in danger (nursing/care homes)?

Nothing stopping them? Only the greatest mobilisation of the Garda force in Irelands history to ensure the government directive of unnecessary travel is adhered too

FintanMcluskey

Penfailed wrote: »

So, you make a statement and can't back it up...common theme.

I have its in the links

Penfailed

Yehuda Easy Motor wrote: »

Is there even a tiny chance that Phase 1 won't go ahead on the 18th? Haven't been watching but surely Tony and team can't be spouting the same stuff about numbers are too high etc etc.

It appears that, quite ironically, the people that are crying out for everything to open up ASAP on this thread, are also the ones that don't think restrictions will be eased on the 18th.

FintanMcluskey

Penfailed wrote: »

I reckon things will go to plan on the 18th.

Are you basing this on Tony's previous word?
Have you heard his shift in language today?
Have you seen the minute's from the NPHET meeting's?
Have you heard the idiots suggesting the Covid payment could continue for 6 months?

_Kaiser_

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Be, or pretend you are an adult FGS. This is for everyone's protection, WTF.

Nothing stopping your from seeing your loved ones at the moment. Nothing, as long as you are metres away from them.

I'm sorry.. hysteria and hyperbole don't work on me.

There is absolutely no justification for the current level of restrictions given that:

a) the objectives of the restrictions (get attention, reduce the spread, give the health service time to ramp up) have been met

b) the virus will have minimal to moderate effects on the overwhelming majority but no lasting effects, and the most vulnerable can be protected in parallel and far more effectively

c) the damage this extended lockdown is causing to the economy and people's personal futures is extreme and will result in far greater and longer-lasting impacts for the country as a whole long after Corona

d) the main reason at this point is to cover incompetence and indecision at leadership level

As for your last point. If your loved ones live outside a very small radius of your home then absolutely are you currently (legally) prevented from seeing them.

This virus is going nowhere for the foreseeable. It's time we acted like adults (FGS) and started adapting to living alongside it, not in fear of it.

Nermal

Deleted User wrote: »

That's a pre print. It hasn't been peer reviewed yet.

Where are you getting the fatality ratio from?

I know, relax.

From the abstract, the estimated number of people with positive IgG was 40,999 (95%CI: 27,333-59,221). Confirmed cases (not deaths, cases, so it's an upper bound) was 69.

0.5% is almost certainly too high. 0.1% is probably too low.

Not that it matters. Back when I though it was 1% I still thought the lockdown economically unjustifiable.

FintanMcluskey

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

I have its in the links

Your links don't say that the flu has a true fatality comparable to COVID-19. Just admit you made it up to get a few likes from your cronies.

dundalkfc10

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Everyones protection? How are restrictions protecting the only group in danger (nursing/care homes)?

Nothing stopping them? Only the greatest mobilisation of the Garda force in Irelands history to ensure the government directive of unnecessary travel is adhered too

If you really want to get out do what you want and were

If the Guards stop you in Finglas, you say you live in Finglas and your going shopping, exercise

If they stop you in Dundalk, you say your from town and going do essentials

Its not rocket science

Colibri

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

b) the virus will have minimal to moderate effects on the overwhelming majority but no lasting effects, and the most vulnerable can be protected in parallel and far more effectively

The virus is still somewhat unknown but isn't it wrong to say there are no lasting effects?

Penfailed

growleaves wrote: »

I'm writing on my phone atm. I will try to write out my reasoning and get back to you in next few days.

In the meantime if you are bored, read this mini-book (87 pages) explaining the interdependencies of the global economy:

https://www.hedweb.com/bgcharlton/modernization-imperative.html

Also Malthus:

http://www.gutenberg.org/files/4239/4239-h/4239-h.htm

(Not trying to dump a reading list on you. Please only bother if you are quite bored.)

Ha! Fair play! Yeah...I'm not 'quite bored'. Cheers though.

Penfailed

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

I have its in the links

Which have been disputed in the very short space of time that it took me to catch up with the thread.

FintanMcluskey

Penfailed wrote: »

Which have been disputed in the very short space of time that it took me to catch up with the thread.

Haha, could tell you neither read them or the OP that was challenged

Ginger n Lemon

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Your links don't say that the flu has a true fatality comparable to COVID-19. Just admit you made it up to get a few likes from your cronies.

Plenty of antibodies tests in US and Germany to name a few got covid mortality rates of 0.12% to 0.37% (0.37 inflated and virologist believed its 0.24 to 0.26%)

All of this compares with flu 0.1% nicely.

People find this hard to believe because of huge financial damage Leo inflicted onto us but its true.

Fintan is right.

Penfailed

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Are you basing this on Tony's previous word?
Have you heard his shift in language today?
Have you seen the minute's from the NPHET meeting's?
Have you heard the idiots suggesting the Covid payment could continue for 6 months?

Lets wait and see, yeah? I reckon restrictions will be eased as per the plan on the 18th.

The furlough scheme in the UK has been extended until October - idiots?

NH2013

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Nothing stopping your from seeing your loved ones at the moment. Nothing, as long as you are metres away from them.

The 5km restriction is legally stopping me seeing my loved ones, unless by meters you mean for me to stand 200,000m away from them

Lyle

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

b) the virus will have minimal to moderate effects on the overwhelming majority but no lasting effects, and the most vulnerable can be protected in parallel and far more effectively

Go and look up GGO - Ground Glass Opacities - as they relate to survivors of Covid19. There will be long lasting impacts for some people in their lungs, as well as probably other issues we just can't know about yet. It's safer, to instill a sense of caution in people, to assume there will be long lasting implications, even in people who only suffer a mildly symptomatic illness. We could see the need for a lot of respiratory clinics going forward in the next decade and beyond for people with reduced lung function.

Even just think, it can cause circulatory issues that are so serious that you can lose a limb because blood flow can drastically be impacted. I'd count the potential for losing a leg or an arm as a potential long lasting effect too, even if the chances are slim, the chances are there.

So yeah, maybe don't present the lack of long term effects so staunchly.