Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

LiquidZeb

deisedevil wrote: »

That's gas. I'm disagreeing with those that feel they have superior knowledge to the experts handling this crisis. My point is, unless you have some sort of solid research done that proves they are doing things wrong then shut up and do what they ask.

So anyone whose livelihood is affected by the lockdown should shut up too? I'm guessing you're Elon musk levels of wealthy so youve nothing to worry about, leave that to the lemmings.

deisedevil

retro:electro wrote: »

Setting deadlines and then extending them over and over is unacceptable, unfair and as good as being lied to. I was all for locking down at the start. I’ve been contributing to these threads since March and I was very vocal about Leo pulling the finger out initially, cancelling the parades and getting this curve flattened so our health system isn’t over burdened. We did that. The system is not and was never over whelmed, in fact it’s underwhelmed with many A&E’s deserted and consultations and procedures cancelled. This is just raging lunacy at this point. The rest of Europe is opening up and doing quite well so I don’t see how it makes sense for us to drag this on til the arse end of August.

Industries that can provide genuine and workable solutions in keeping with social distancing measures should be allowed to open up. I’ve no gripes with Tony Holohan he seems nice a decent chap, hardworking and I know he’s under serious pressure, but the decisions shouldn’t be left up to him. As CMO he naturally has the health of the nation in his best interest but our government should have many interests at the centre of their decision making, and yes the economy is a major one. It’s like Leo is totally awe struck and can’t say no to the man, even admitting on The Late Late that barbers opening in stage 4 was a “bone of contention” between the two. Well then put the foot down ya gobshlte you’re the one in charge.

So Leo should put the foot down because he would understand the risks of that better than the CMO. Brilliant.

I heard a psychologist talking on Newstalk before the restrictions came in and he was saying that what would happen is that restrictions would be brought in bit by bit and then extended bit by bit. It would be done like this because there are too many people who wouldn't be able to handle being told the total extent of the restrictions and the length of time in one go. I'd rather find out up front myself and have it all open and honest because I know I could handle it. But thinking of my own friends and family, I know that there's quiet a few that would have just completely gone against it if they knew the extent of it from the beginning. And where would we be then.

alwald

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Jesus christ how can you not grasp the whole point.

Some other European countries had issues in nursing homes, the CMO, dept of health, HSE all keep saying we're learning from other countries and our timeline of infection is behind them. Therefore if our timeline of infection is behind them and we're learning from them, how come we repeated the mistakes dispite seeing them happen in other countries and having time to ensure they didn't happen here??

Hence my original point, an investigation or committee whatever government at the time decide when this is over will highly likely find officials made the wrong calls and certain times. Let's see the clamour for a scapegoat within the departments when that happens, in particular to the decision making process surrounding nursing homes.

I can't put it much simpler for you to understand really. If we are behind other European countries then why didn't we learn from their mistakes instead of repeating them

You really don't understand...you accuse the CMO/HSE of negligence and yet you are unable to prove that their actions in relation to nursing homes were far behind their counterparts in the rest of the EU.
Do you even get that this is a new virus and thus nothing is/was crystal clear about it from the beginning??

vid36

setanta1984 wrote: »

Just look at that graphic from the Guardian. It's utterly depressing to see how far literally every country(bar the UK) has progressed by week commencing May 11. We are literally 3 months behind all of this. We had double digit new cases outside care homes this week.

Schools, childcare, shops, bars, restaurants, hotels, museums, hairdressers, car dealerships, cinemas, even professional sports and gatherings up to 100, all in various parts of the continent.



How can people justify us being so radically different to basically everywhere?

We are not that different. Many parts of France including the Greater Paris region are staying in lockdown next week. Lille, Strasbourg and all the departments North East of Paris up to the German and Belgian borders will be in lockdown. In Spain, Madrid, Catalonia, Valencia and the Basque region are all staying in lockdown.

alwald

jibber5000 wrote: »

You're missing the point completely.

The overwhelming majority of people who unfortunately die from Covid (>95%) had extremely poor long term survival prior to contracting the virus.

For a disease that disporportionately kills the very sick and elderly, we are taking draconian measures affecting the livelihoods of the entire population. I do find that incredible.

I am afraid to tell you that you are missing the point indeed.
No restrictions = more deaths and chaos just like Italy/Spain in their early stages.

On top of that, why most EU countries took strong measures then if the virus wasn't as dangerous as you suggest?

deisedevil

LiquidZeb wrote: »

So anyone whose livelihood is affected by the lockdown should shut up too? I'm guessing you're Elon musk levels of wealthy so youve nothing to worry about, leave that to the lemmings.

That's the balancing act the experts are trying to make. Between lives and the economy. Some people want to side more with the economy.

I'll be grand for sure. I've nothing to worry about thankfully. Will have to suffer the effects of another recessions but I'll manage. Plenty of my family won't be grand and it's tough on them but they'll survive and I'll help them out if I can.

Lifting the restrictions asap to save businesses now will look very foolish if deaths start to spike and we end up losing many people and have to go back to the restrctions again. That's when many many more jobs will be lost.

FintanMcluskey

vid36 wrote: »

We are not that different. Many parts of France including the Greater Paris region are staying in lockdown next week. Lille, Strasbourg and all the departments North East of Paris up to the German and Belgian borders will be in lockdown. In Spain, Madrid, Catalonia, Valencia and the Basque region are all staying in lockdown.

Fair enough. Places with multiple times the population of Ireland in a 10th of the area are remaining in lockdown for another short while

stephenjmcd

alwald wrote: »

You really don't understand...you accuse the CMO/HSE of negligence and yet you are unable to prove that their actions in relation to nursing homes were far behind their counterparts in the rest of the EU.
Do you even get that this is a new virus and thus nothing is/was crystal clear about it from the beginning??

I'm sorry but I'm afraid it's you who doesn't understand, and that's not a first on here. Seems to be a common theme in your interactions with other posters.

Are you suggesting that the CMOs / NPHET order to nursing homes to not ban visitors wasn't negligent ?? I would say it was negligent to advise them to remain open, nursing homes took it upon themselves to lockdown when advised not to yet look at the mess they're in. If they followed the CMO and dept of health advice to keep allowing visitors in I dread to think what state they would be in now. That advice to remain open based on the quite clear experience of other countries is negligent.

As I've said now multiple times we're being told we're learning from other countries, what did we learn regarding nursing homes ?? Looks like absolutely nothing, so yes both department of health and HSE have to take some blame for that.

I'd love to carry on this discussion all night but I fear I'd tire myself out having to explain it to you time and time again when it really is quite simple.Have a wonderful night.

LiquidZeb

deisedevil wrote: »

That's the balancing act the experts are trying to make. Between lives and the economy. Some people want to side more with the economy.

I'll be grand for sure. I've nothing to worry about thankfully. Will have to suffer the effects of another recessions but I'll manage. Plenty of my family won't be grand and it's tough on them but they'll survive and I'll help them out if I can.

Lifting the restrictions asap to save businesses now will look very foolish if deaths start to spike and we end up losing many people and have to go back to the restrctions again. That's when many many more jobs will be lost.

But no ones on about lifting everything all at once. The virus will still be around on the 18th. It'll still be here in June July and August. Leo saying it's alright to get a haircut or go back to the office doesnt make the virus magically vanish. Also working on the assumption the German or Austrian government have slipped up somehow with relaxing restrictions is a gamble you'll lose every time.

FintanMcluskey

alwald wrote: »

I am afraid to tell you that you are missing the point indeed.
No restrictions = more deaths and chaos just like Italy/Spain in their early stages.

Couldn't happen. Just couldn't happen.
Many multiples more million of the vunerable population in those countries was the reason for the numbers seen in Italy and Spain

Arghus

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

And thats where the stats are innacurate.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EXgt8CtX0AE2SiZ.jpg

We can not say if one person that died from/with Covid would be alive today if Covid did not exist

Google Influenza pandemics of 2018 etc and all the info is there.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/annual-flu-reports

Stats from the UK. Deaths associated with influenza

2014/15 - 28000

2015/16 - 12000

2016/17 - 18000

2017/18 - 26000

2018/19 - 1692 (season was incomplete at the time of publication)

Deaths associated with Covid 19 -31,241 ( and the number continues to grow)

Once again, over a much shorter period and with widespread measures in place to try to curb the spread and taking into account the UK's under reporting of deaths. It still comes out more deadly.

deisedevil

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Couldn't happen. Just couldn't happen.
Many multiples more million of the vunerable population in those countries was the reason for the numbers seen in Italy and Spain

So we didn't need to do anything here and we'd be grand. We've the wrong lads in the job alright.

FintanMcluskey

Arghus wrote: »

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/annual-flu-reports

Stats from the UK. Deaths associated with influenza

2014/15 - 28000

2015/16 - 12000

2016/17 - 18000

2017/18 - 26000

2018/19 - 1692 (season was incomplete at the time of publication)

Deaths associated with Covid 19 -31,241.

Once again, over a much shorter period and with widespread measures in place to try to curb the spread. It still comes out more deadly.

It doesn't because of the notifibility of Covid. Suggestions are that cancer and heart disease deaths have dropped greatly in April and May because those deaths are now accounted to Covid

FintanMcluskey

deisedevil wrote: »

So we didn't need to do anything here and we'd be grand. We've the wrong lads in the job alright.

Well explain Sweden so

alwald

stephenjmcd wrote: »

I'm sorry but I'm afraid it's you who doesn't understand, and that's not a first on here. Seems to be a common theme in your interactions with other posters.

Are you suggesting that the CMOs / NPHET order to nursing homes to not ban visitors wasn't negligent ?? I would say it was negligent to advise them to remain open, nursing homes took it upon themselves to lockdown when advised not to yet look at the mess they're in. If they followed the CMO and dept of health advice to keep allowing visitors in I dread to think what state they would be in now. That advice to remain open based on the quite clear experience of other countries is negligent.

As I've said now multiple times we're being told we're learning from other countries, what did we learn regarding nursing homes ?? Looks like absolutely nothing, so yes both department of health and HSE have to take some blame for that.

I'd love to carry on this discussion all night but I fear I'd tire myself out having to explain it to you time and time again when it really is quite simple.Have a wonderful night.

Indeed I am getting tired explaining to you and its late...for your own information you are the only one talking/being confused about nursing home as I didn't bring this topic myself.
You started waffling about it without being fully informed and you made wrong accusations Stephen which is normal looking at the quality of your posts :pac:

deisedevil

LiquidZeb wrote: »

But no ones on about lifting everything all at once. The virus will still be around on the 18th. It'll still be here in June July and August. Leo saying it's alright to get a haircut or go back to the office doesnt make the virus magically vanish. Also working on the assumption the German or Austrian government have slipped up somehow with relaxing restrictions is a gamble you'll lose every time.

So let's hold on and see how they get on with it. We're a good bit behind them from when we started seeing our first cases to when they saw theirs. If their right, then great. We can remove restrictions earlier than announced. If they get it wrong though, we'll be able to adjust our approach. We can watch and see what works and doesn't work for them.

Arghus

Fair play to you Fintan your ability to argue black is white is bordering on the miraculous.

jibber5000

alwald wrote: »

I am afraid to tell you that you are missing the point indeed.
No restrictions = more deaths and chaos just like Italy/Spain in their early stages.

On top of that, why most EU countries took strong measures then if the virus wasn't as dangerous as you suggest?

Where did I suggest we take no restrictions and where did I say the virus wasn't dangerous?

I said, as our ICU figures prove, >95% of those who died had very poor prospects of long term survival.

With this evidence at hand, we should now be opening up most businesses whilst maintaining social distancing where possible. I think most people are now coming around to this way of thinking.

alwald

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Couldn't happen. Just couldn't happen.
Many multiples more million of the vunerable population in those countries was the reason for the numbers seen in Italy and Spain

The reason for the numbers in Italy/Spain was directly linked to the number of people, regardless of their age/health, that needed ICU beds to survive,...I hope that you agree with this as it's common knowledge right??

deisedevil

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Well explain Sweden so

Why don't you explain it?

Every country is completely different. It's not a one size fits all for every country and .

By the way, Sweden have more deaths per million of population than we do and in this country we are including all deaths, including nursing home figures and outside of hospital deaths unlike in some countries. So Sweden aren't doing anything amazing at all now in fairness.

vid36

There are over 3,000 dead in Sweden and many more to come unfortunately.

alwald

jibber5000 wrote: »

The best way to analyse the health of those that died from Covid isn't by their age. Its by looking at the numbers who have died in ICU.

In Ireland approx 65 people have died in our ICU's.

This means out of all the people that died, only 65 were viewed as having a decent chance at recovery.

And we've shut down our entire country for 4 months knowing that number. It's incredible.

jibber5000 wrote: »

Where did I suggest we take no restrictions and where did I say the virus wasn't dangerous?

I said, as our ICU figures prove, >95% of those who died had very poor prospects of long term survival.

With this evidence at hand, we should now be opening up most businesses whilst maintaining social distancing where possible. I think most people are now coming around to this way of thinking.

You said in your first post what ICU deaths are the best measurement, right? And I replied that this measurement is only applicable based on the current restrictions which means that:
No restrictions = more deaths

I am afraid that a 5 year old child would understand this so no need for me to explain further

setanta1984

vid36 wrote: »

We are not that different. Many parts of France including the Greater Paris region are staying in lockdown next week. Lille, Strasbourg and all the departments North East of Paris up to the German and Belgian borders will be in lockdown. In Spain, Madrid, Catalonia, Valencia and the Basque region are all staying in lockdown.

Huh? So a couple of french and spanish regions being slightly behind the rest of their country equates to Ireland being “not that different” to all those measures that are lifting this week/already lifted listed in that graphic? Seriously?

stephenjmcd

deisedevil wrote: »

Why don't you explain it?

Every country is completely different. It's not a one size fits all for every country and .

By the way, Sweden have more deaths per million of population than we do and in this country we are including all deaths, including nursing home figures and outside of hospital deaths unlike in some countries. So Sweden aren't doing anything amazing at all now in fairness.

Anyone who's studied data analytics knows that quite often you discard the outlier as it can cause serious issues with statistical analysis. In the case of covid in the EU region, Sweden is said outlier. I wouldn't be comparing us or anyone else against them. They're on their own in the dataset as an experiment basically.

jibber5000

alwald wrote: »

You said in your first post what ICU deaths are the best measurement, right? And I replied that this measurement is only applicable based on the current restrictions which means that:
No restrictions = more deaths

I am afraid that a 5 year old child would understand this so no need for me to explain further

You really don't have a clue. Who mentioned no restrictions?

I said, for the third time, that >95% of those that died did so outside ICU. Even if the number of deaths goes up that figure will remain the same

Do you understand the criteria for ICU admission?

alwald

jibber5000 wrote: »

You really don't have a clue. Who mentioned no restrictions?

I said, for the third time, that >95% of those that died did so outside ICU. Even if the number of deaths goes up that figure will remain the same

Do you understand the criteria for ICU admission?

I give up as you are not even reading/backing up the content of your previous posts.

deisedevil

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Anyone who's studied data analytics knows that quite often you discard the outlier as it can cause serious issues with statistical analysis. In the case of covid in the EU region, Sweden is said outlier. I wouldn't be comparing us or anyone else against them. They're on their own in the dataset as an experiment basically.

I'm confused. Did you read what I was responding to?

Thanks for the very basic stats lesson too.

stephenjmcd

deisedevil wrote: »

I'm confused. Did you read what I was responding to?

Thanks for the very basic stats lesson too.

Should have been a reply to the original poster who said explain Sweden that you were replying to instead I quoted your post apologies.

jibber5000

alwald wrote: »

I give up as you are not even reading/backing up the content of your previous posts.

My previous posts stated that 95% of people who have died here, were not deemed fit for ICU admission.
So we know, from this figure, that it's people with multiple co-morbidities who are dying. Even if our numbers increase why can you not comprehend that this figure will remain roughly the same?

For a disease that so grossly affects a subset of our population, to lockdown our entire workforce for months on end is wreckless at best.

You're completely ignoring the recession we're voluntarily plunging ourselves into. Never mind the missed hospital appointments and elective surgeries which still have not been rescheduled in most hospitals.

If you think there'll be no lives lost due to our restrictive measures you're delusional.

Tell me how

CruelSummer wrote: »

Can I ask people here defending NPHET and Tony Holohan - why are they given absolute power over us? They are unelected, unanswerable to us as voters and don’t care about anything other than covering themselves, I’ve lost respect for the people in charge.
Data shows we should be re-opening yesterday not in August.

Because they are experts in the areas of infectious diseases, public health and the capacity of the health system and the acting Taoiseach, himself a Dr, has the belief that experts should direct policy in the event the rapid occurrence of the worst pandemic in 100 years.

I am in my early 40's and most of my life I have heard nothing but complaints about elected politicians not being experts themselves and how we should have people who know what they are talking about directing policy.

Now it seems we do, and still it's unacceptable to some.

You'd swear they weren't aware of the impact of the serious imbalance of money out versus money in which has been going on for the last 7 weeks or whatever it is.

I'm not saying everything they are doing is perfect or that the proposed plan must be adhered to as it has been outlined between now and August (I don't think it will be) but reading Boards throughout this period has convinced me we will never as a country be truly happy with our elected representatives in government. There will always be something to complain about from a significant proportion of the people. Not the same people all the time mind, and that is another thing that people on all sides are aggrieved about, 'Why doesn't everyone else just see it from my point of view!!'.