Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

Quantum Erasure

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

It doesn't because of the notifibility of Covid. Suggestions are that cancer and heart disease deaths have dropped greatly in April and May because those deaths are now accounted to Covid

any source for that?

here's my reply to you from a couple weeks ago, updated. [newer figures will be out tuesday, I'll post them here too...]

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

this is from 5 years ago, but



https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/highestnumberofexcesswinterdeathssince19992000/2015-11-25

and this shows this year, and average for last 5 years [updated]



https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/latest

and we're not half way through this yet

amadangomor

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Haha.
Merkel has more balls than our leaders. And I mean her no disrespect, but shes a leader who doesn't lead behind a cloak of fear. Someone to respect

So much so she let a million plus immigrants in that are causing major social problems there:rolleyes:

GreenandRed

Tell me how wrote: »

Because they are experts in the areas of infectious diseases, public health and the capacity of the health system and the acting Taoiseach, himself a Dr, has the belief that experts should direct policy in the event the rapid occurrence of the worst pandemic in 100 years.

I am in my early 40's and most of my life I have heard nothing but complaints about elected politicians not being experts themselves and how we should have people who know what they are talking about directing policy.

Now it seems we do, and still it's unacceptable to some.

You'd swear they weren't aware of the impact of the serious imbalance of money out versus money in which has been going on for the last 7 weeks or whatever it is.

I'm not saying everything they are doing is perfect or that the proposed plan must be adhered to as it has been outlined between now and August (I don't think it will be) but reading Boards throughout this period has convinced me we will never as a country be truly happy with our elected representatives in government. There will always be something to complain about from a significant proportion of the people. Not the same people all the time mind, and that is another thing that people on all sides are aggrieved about, 'Why doesn't everyone else just see it from my point of view!!'.

Don't take Boards or other social media as being a good barometer of the nation's opinions. Too many posters quick to criticise decision makers but don't propose an alternative. Just a small proportion of the population post their opinions and the number of people posting is a fraction of the number of posters.....

pjohnson

Ah back to the Tony being unelected line.

Yep. I wish all doctors were elected doctors instead of educated!

I think my gardener should be CMO, he's a sound guy.

gozunda

tobefrank321 wrote: »

At no stage did Britain deliberately destroy their own economy during WW2 despite facing an enemy far more dangerous to the general population than covid 19.

Are you just adding stuff now to score points or what now ?

And thats bollox. The UK had to borrow heavily to pay for ability to keep its economy afloat during WW2. After WW2 the UK was on its knees and had amassed an immense debt of £21 billion. The UK then signed the Anglo-American Loan Agreement with the United States to enable the UK to keep its battered economy afloat further. Austerity and rationing continued even after the war.

And it wasn't until 2006, that the UK made a final payment of £45.5m and discharged the last of its war loans from the US.

And why the fuk are you comparing Nazi Germany as an enemy with Covid-19? Thats just deranged. They both constitute threats but they are different. It does not follow we have to put up our hands and surrender because some eejits would prefer that.

Ireland is just one country of many facing huge financial issues arising from the pandemic. That is known. It's not like the restictions wont be lifted. They will. That has already been detailed.

The point on the previous comment btw that there were serious restrictions during WW2 and people just got on with it.

PowerToWait

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

It doesn't because of the notifibility of Covid. Suggestions are that cancer and heart disease deaths have dropped greatly in April and May because those deaths are now accounted to Covid

Look at the average deaths for the same period, say April, over the previous 5 years and compare to this year. There’s around 13000 more this year. With strict restrictions in place.

is_that_so

CruelSummer wrote: »

Can I ask people here defending NPHET and Tony Holohan - why are they given absolute power over us? They are unelected, unanswerable to us as voters and don’t care about anything other than covering themselves, I’ve lost respect for the people in charge.
Data shows we should be re-opening yesterday not in August.

They aren't. They issue advice, which has then been applied by the government. It's that scenario of employing someone who can do what you can't. They are ubercautious about all of this and not inclined to move at a pace they don't believe will be beneficial to the management of the outbreak. BTW what data are you referring to?

gozunda

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Yep. I think its ironic that Italy is more relaxed than us in 3 weeks time. In fact months ahead by then. Heads will have to roll here

Chxrst on a bike. From that comment- is there any real grasp of reality - seriously?

Italy was under very strict stay at home orders for eight weeks. Ireland is currently at week 6. We are well behind them at this point in time in terms of restrictions.

However it remains both Italy and Ireland now have a planned and phased easing of restrictions where the restrictions will be rolled back gradually but only when a lid is kept on the rate of infection.

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Not proven yet. Covid is becoming less lethal the more that is discovered. My point is more people died in the flu seasons recently than Covid. We may all have blood on our hands applying your theory

Incorrect. Wrong. 1,429 people have died in Ireland to date due to Covid-19

The yearly stats for Ireland show that during the 2019/2020 season, there were 103 deaths of notified influenza cases.

Tbh your comments come across as pure political pot stirring. I do hope you are getting paid for that rubbish because most of it makes no sense whatsoever.

magic17

vid36 wrote: »

There are over 3,000 dead in Sweden and many more to come unfortunately.

According to Google they have a population of 10 million. We have a population of 5 million. They have 3,000 deaths. We have 1,400. Seems like we are both doing just about the same to me yet we're being kept from having any sort of life whatsoever.

snotboogie

gozunda wrote: »

Ireland is just one country of many facing huge financial issues arising from the pandemic. That is known. It's not like the restictions wont be lifted. They will. That has already been detailed.

It hasn't been detailed. It has been detailed how we get to a point where we can do as much as possible with social distancing. There is no timeline to lift social distancing. Social distancing is by far the most intrusive measure introduced here and there are no plans to lift it. There is currently no path out of this

easypazz

Tell me how wrote: »

Because they are experts in the areas of infectious diseases, public health and the capacity of the health system and the acting Taoiseach, himself a Dr, has the belief that experts should direct policy in the event the rapid occurrence of the worst pandemic in 100 years.

I am in my early 40's and most of my life I have heard nothing but complaints about elected politicians not being experts themselves and how we should have people who know what they are talking about directing policy.

Now it seems we do, and still it's unacceptable to some.

You'd swear they weren't aware of the impact of the serious imbalance of money out versus money in which has been going on for the last 7 weeks or whatever it is.

I'm not saying everything they are doing is perfect or that the proposed plan must be adhered to as it has been outlined between now and August (I don't think it will be) but reading Boards throughout this period has convinced me we will never as a country be truly happy with our elected representatives in government. There will always be something to complain about from a significant proportion of the people. Not the same people all the time mind, and that is another thing that people on all sides are aggrieved about, 'Why doesn't everyone else just see it from my point of view!!'.

They did a great job infecting nursing homes, over 6000 healthcare workers have also been infected.

And here is what they said back on 23rd Jan.

On 23 January, director of the Health Service Executive's (HSE)'s Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC) said the risk of COVID-19 cases in Ireland was "quite low", "If we were to see a case in a European country the risk of a secondary case – a person transmitting to somebody else – is also low".



And don't forget this gem from Cervicalcheck Tony

The most senior Government health adviser advised against a review of CervicalCheck the day after Vicky Phelan called for an investigation into the screening programme.
Instead, Tony Holohan, Department of Health chief medical officer (CMO), urged the health minister to opt for a report which Dr Holohan himself would prepare. He advised Simon Harris that the “appropriate way forward” was to “state that you have asked me to provide a report on the matter, including whether further actions or steps are required”.
He added: “I strongly advise that you do not commit to a review of CervicalCheck arising from the recent court case.”


And you are saying we just blindly follow them and not challenge them, just because we are not experts?

Jinglejangle69

easypazz wrote: »

They did a great job infecting nursing homes, over 6000 healthcare workers have also been infected.

And here is what they said back on 23rd Jan.

On 23 January, director of the Health Service Executive's (HSE)'s Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC) said the risk of COVID-19 cases in Ireland was "quite low", "If we were to see a case in a European country the risk of a secondary case – a person transmitting to somebody else – is also low".



And don't forget this gem from Cervicalcheck Tony

The most senior Government health adviser advised against a review of CervicalCheck the day after Vicky Phelan called for an investigation into the screening programme.
Instead, Tony Holohan, Department of Health chief medical officer (CMO), urged the health minister to opt for a report which Dr Holohan himself would prepare. He advised Simon Harris that the “appropriate way forward” was to “state that you have asked me to provide a report on the matter, including whether further actions or steps are required”.
He added: “I strongly advise that you do not commit to a review of CervicalCheck arising from the recent court case.”


And you are saying we just blindly follow them and not challenge them, just because we are not experts?

Do you want to go down the road of cervical check here?

Everyone knows there will always be false negatives with cervical check. Unfortunate but true.

What do you think they can do by investigating something that happens everywhere and can't be stopped?

is_that_so

easypazz wrote: »

They did a great job infecting nursing homes, over 6000 healthcare workers have also been infected.

And here is what they said back on 23rd Jan.

On 23 January, director of the Health Service Executive's (HSE)'s Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC) said the risk of COVID-19 cases in Ireland was "quite low", "If we were to see a case in a European country the risk of a secondary case – a person transmitting to somebody else – is also low".



And don't forget this gem from Cervicalcheck Tony

The most senior Government health adviser advised against a review of CervicalCheck the day after Vicky Phelan called for an investigation into the screening programme.
Instead, Tony Holohan, Department of Health chief medical officer (CMO), urged the health minister to opt for a report which Dr Holohan himself would prepare. He advised Simon Harris that the “appropriate way forward” was to “state that you have asked me to provide a report on the matter, including whether further actions or steps are required”.
He added: “I strongly advise that you do not commit to a review of CervicalCheck arising from the recent court case.”


And you are saying we just blindly follow them and not challenge them, just because we are not experts?

That depends on the type of challenge. Please explain why is a challenge, you really haven't a clue is not! I wouldn't put much store in your use of dates of statements here, as at that time ticks the boxes. CMO did say that nobody knows what the optimum approach is buy that their choices were based on a strategy of proportional response, an evolving one IMO.

gozunda

magic17 wrote: »

According to Google they have a population of 10 million. We have a population of 5 million. They have 3,000 deaths. We have 1,400. Seems like we are both doing just about the same to me yet we're being kept from having any sort of life whatsoever.

Perhaps it might be something to do with the fact that Sweden has 17,119 active cases of Covid-29 whilst Ireland has 4002 such cases?

Perhaps you would prefer us to be like Italy which witnessed carnage in its hospitals after people did not take the initial restrictions seriously enough?

The hyperbole of "kept from having any sort of life whatsoever." does the argument no favours btw.

Sweden has a whole raft of voluntary social restrictions in place. Even here people are allowed to go out when necessary. We also have a planned roll back of restrictions presuming that we keep the rate of infection down.

If you are bored then may I suggest you take up a hobby or start an internet based enterprise. Nothing is stopping you.

easypazz

gozunda wrote: »

Incorrect. Wrong. 1,429 people have died in Ireland to date due to Covid-19

Died with it or because of it?

Surely it is more accurate to say something like:

X died due to having chronic heart disease compounded by catching COVID-19.

Y was 94 and has had 7 strokes, he was bedridden in a care home, he died while having COVID-19

Lets not pretend 1429 reasonably health people were just struck down randomly by this disease.

How close were most of these people to death anyway, months? within a year?

We get that some reasonably healthy people will die and that is unfortunate, but the risk doesn't warrant the current response.

niallo27

gozunda wrote: »

Perhaps it might be something to do with the fact that Sweden has 17,119 active cases of Covid-29 whilst Ireland has 4002 such cases?

Perhaps you would prefer us to be like Italy which witnessed carnage in its hospitals after people did not take the initial restrictions seriously enough?

The hyperbole of "kept from having any sort of life whatsoever." does the argument no favours btw.

Sweden has a whole raft of voluntary social restrictions in place. Even here people are allowed to go out when necessary. We also have a planned roll back of restrictions presuming that we keep the rate of infection down.

If you are bored then may I suggest you take up a hobby or start an internet based enterprise. Nothing is stopping you.

That's unfair on Italy, they never had a hope. They were hit hard before anybody knew what this was. I do not believe what happened in Italy would happen again in what we know now.

lord quackinton

Tony Holohan and this government have a plan on how to end the lock down
It’s a plan I fundamentally disagree with
I initially believed the lock down was a necessary evil because of the numbers we were told might die
But within one week of lockdown starting i knew the death rate was not going to be as bad as believed - I reviewed the numbers on world o meter and it was obvious to me the death rate would be just slightly higher if there was no lockdown
I posted on here we needed all effort into protecting nursing homes and let those who could work from home do so but life must go on
Schools and pubs should not close etc etc
I have worked in nursing homes doing construction 10 years ago and the state of them was a disgrace
I could name 4 here now that were in a desperate state

Let me just history will not be kind to Tony and our government
Sweden is there undoing in lockdown and the rest of Europe will be there undoing in exiting lockdown

gozunda

snotboogie wrote: »

It hasn't been detailed. It has been detailed how we get to a point where we can do as much as possible with social distancing. There is no timeline to lift social distancing. Social distancing is by far the most intrusive measure introduced here and there are no plans to lift it. There is currently no path out of this

So now its moved to moaning about having to protect ourselves and others from being infected with Covid-19 by continuing to practice social distancing? Wow.

We could all take up slam dancing with explosives as well. But I dont recommended that either.

niallo27

easypazz wrote: »

Died with it or because of it?

Surely it is more accurate to say something like:

X died due to having chronic heart disease compounded by catching COVID-19.

Y was 94 and has had 7 strokes, he was bedridden in a care home, he died while having COVID-19

Lets not pretend 1429 reasonably health people were just struck down randomly by this disease.

How close were most of these people to death anyway, months? within a year?

We get that some reasonably healthy people will die and that is unfortunate, but the risk doesn't warrant the current response.

Your not allowed ask these questions without being called a heartless bastard. I do not why some posters get so wound up by saying this mortality rate is not as high as suggested. Its pretty obvious its not as deadly as first thought.

easypazz

gozunda wrote: »

We could all take up slam dancing with explosives as well. But I dont recommended that either.

So the chances of a reasonably healthy person dying from COVID are the same as playing slam dunk with explosives?

Heard it all now.

gozunda

easypazz wrote: »

Died with it or because of it?Surely it is more accurate to say something like:X died due to having chronic heart disease compounded by catching COVID-19.Y was 94 and has had 7 strokes, he was bedridden in a care home, he died while having COVID-19Lets not pretend 1429 reasonably health people were just struck down randomly by this disease.

How close were most of these people to death anyway, months? within a year?

We get that some reasonably healthy people will die and that is unfortunate, but the risk doesn't warrant the current response.

Oh dont start thst ****e again. That is the official figures for Covid-19 deaths. And the official figure for Flu deaths. If you dont like that tough!

You may as well try to claim that those who died of flue 'died with it" and something else killed them entirely

Or the person killed by the drunk driver - didnt die because of the crash- rather they died with it.

Do you have a machine to predict when granny is going to die? Handy for taking out a sneaky insurance policy yeah?

Get a grip ffs.

gozunda

easypazz wrote: »

So the chances of a reasonably healthy person dying from COVID are the same as playing slam dunk with explosives?Heard it all now.

My bad. I completely forgot to add the sarcasm emoji! :rolleyes:

the kelt

easypazz wrote: »

Died with it or because of it?

Surely it is more accurate to say something like:

X died due to having chronic heart disease compounded by catching COVID-19.

Y was 94 and has had 7 strokes, he was bedridden in a care home, he died while having COVID-19

Lets not pretend 1429 reasonably health people were just struck down randomly by this disease.

How close were most of these people to death anyway, months? within a year?

We get that some reasonably healthy people will die and that is unfortunate, but the risk doesn't warrant the current response.

You’re right in regards to the numbers, it is a case that because of how the numbers are presented and headline figures that are put out there people look at the figures and directly think that Covid has killed 1429 people and if Covid was t here they would all be still alive.

What I would like to know but not sure if the numbers are available is has there been analysis of the numbers of people Covid has killed that were perfectly healthy with no underlying conditions?

snotboogie

gozunda wrote: »

So now its moved to moaning about having to protect ourselves and others from being infected with Covid-19 by continuing to practice social distancing? Wow.

We could all take up slam dancing with explosives as well. But I dont recommended that either.

I am not moaning. I am pointing out the error in your statement, which is one i see over and over again. There is no plan to lift social distancing. Social distancing is the biggest restriction we have. To say there is a plan to lift our restrictions is false. There is a plan to lift as many ancillary restrictions as possible but there is no timeline on the big one.

Ginger n Lemon

Tell me how wrote: »

Because they are experts in the areas of infectious diseases, public health and the capacity of the health system and the acting Taoiseach, himself a Dr, has the belief that experts should direct policy in the event the rapid occurrence of the worst pandemic in 100 years.

I am in my early 40's and most of my life I have heard nothing but complaints about elected politicians not being experts themselves and how we should have people who know what they are talking about directing policy.

Now it seems we do, and still it's unacceptable to some.

You'd swear they weren't aware of the impact of the serious imbalance of money out versus money in which has been going on for the last 7 weeks or whatever it is.

I'm not saying everything they are doing is perfect or that the proposed plan must be adhered to as it has been outlined between now and August (I don't think it will be) but reading Boards throughout this period has convinced me we will never as a country be truly happy with our elected representatives in government. There will always be something to complain about from a significant proportion of the people. Not the same people all the time mind, and that is another thing that people on all sides are aggrieved about, 'Why doesn't everyone else just see it from my point of view!!'.

Unfortunately this is not true. 1968 Pandemic had more deaths than Covid, much more deaths.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1968-pandemic.html

So thats not last 100 years, but more last 50 years.

2nd off, They are aware of "the serious imbalance of money out versus money in". The issue we are raising here is that those people wont be in the decision making positions 6 months from now or 12 months from now, while the poverty created the "money out imbalance vs money in" will have to be suffered though by a younger generation that is COMPLETELY UNAFFECTED by covid.

So you are creating huge poverty for a younger generation that does not even get affected by the very thing you are imposing the lockdown for.

I've talked with 18 year olds and 19 year olds yesterday, all had 1 message "may need to go abroad".

Does 1860 ring a bell?

They need to lift restrictions ahead of schedule, they can not start the lockdown drumming the "FLATTEN THE CURVE" and once curve is flattened take 3 months + to open the economy.

is_that_so

the kelt wrote: »

You’re right in regards to the numbers, it is a case that because of how the numbers are presented and headline figures that are put out there people look at the figures and directly think that Covid has killed 1429 people and if Covid was t here they would all be still alive.

What I would like to know but not sure if the numbers are available is has there been analysis of the numbers of people Covid has killed that were perfectly healthy with no underlying conditions?

There is data, about 14% without underlying conditions.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0506/1136864-covid-19-figures/

jibber5000

is_that_so wrote: »

There is , about 14% without underlying conditions.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0506/1136864-covid-19-figures/

We can say that of that 14%, roughly 9% were extremely elderly and/or were not predicted by their doctors to have good survival outcomes.

Hence the 5% dying in ICU were the only Covid deaths where people had a chance of recovering well from the disease.

gozunda

niallo27 wrote: »

That's unfair on Italy, they never had a hope. They were hit hard before anybody knew what this was. I do not believe what happened in Italy would happen again in what we know now.

No that was from news reports at the time. At the beginning of the restrictions It was reported that Police gave citations to nearly 200,000 people across the country and had to clamp down even because people continued to flout the restrictions. There were interviews at the time with frontline doctors who were pleading with people to stay at home and observe the restrictions. Unfortunately such behaviour was widespread and led to even higher rates of infection there.

Snugglebunnies

snotboogie wrote: »

I am not moaning. I am pointing out the error in your statement, which is one i see over and over again. There is no plan to lift social distancing. Social distancing is the biggest restriction we have. To say there is a plan to lift our restrictions is false. There is a plan to lift as many ancillary restrictions as possible but there is no timeline on the big one.

Exactly. Avoiding strangers in the supermarket is fine and I'm sure most people have no problem doing that. Staying 2 metres apart from family, friends and partners indefinitely is not fine for the majority. I know there's no option but to do that for now but I'd love to know an estimate for how long that will be necessary. That's the kind of restriction that will do massive harm to people in the long term.

FintanMcluskey

jibber5000 wrote: »

We can say that of that 14%, roughly 9% were extremely elderly and/or were not predicted by their doctors to have good survival outcomes.

Hence the 5% dying in ICU were the only Covid deaths where people had a chance of recovering well from the disease.

Approximately 65 people died in ICU.

65 people were accessed and it was decided they were healthy enough to have some chance.