Aer Lingus Fleet/ Routes Discussion Pt 2 (ALL possible routes included)

joeysoap

Bit rude

Elaine762

basill wrote: »

Why do you care and what business is it of yours? If you were an interested party then you would be receiving communications from your union and employer. Any comparison to AA is meaningless. I don't see what the point of idle speculation is about potential job/career losses. New joiners are on temporary contracts so they were terminated in accordance with the agreed notice period. Not dissimilar to contractors.

its an aviation thread to debate anything in relation to airlines in specific Aer Lingus. if you have nothing to add/ you are clueless in the matter just dont bother to reply, thanks.

L1011

It has nothing to do with fleet or routes; and its an entirely internal HR matter too.

Tenger

Elaine762 wrote: »

its an aviation thread to debate anything in relation to airlines in specific Aer Lingus. if you have nothing to add/ you are clueless in the matter just dont bother to reply, thanks.

It is indeed an Aer Lingus thread. But throwing out info about AA and trawling for info on EI isn’t really adding to the debate.
I’m pretty sure if such a plan happens at EI we will see it in the Irish media early enough

California Dreamer

Tenger wrote: »

It is indeed an Aer Lingus thread. But throwing out info about AA and trawling for info on EI isn’t really adding to the debate.
I’m pretty sure if such a plan happens at EI we will hear from Ingrid Miley early enough

Fixed that for you Tenger!!! :D:D:D

Tenger

California Dreamer wrote: »

Fixed that for you Tenger!!! :D:D:D

Probably correct too.

Avoation1091

Timmy Dooley has posted that there has been rumours about SNN a/c relocating to the UK. Has any one else heard this. Pre Covid SNN had an A320 & 2 LR’s. DUB is the only place i could imagine them relocating to.

goingnowhere

Stobart has started a number of flights from Belfast, but these appear to be resourced using aircraft made spare when FlyBe failed.

Of course our politicians are not renowned for fact checking in advance.

EI will relocate any aircraft to any location globally if they can get a better deal on parking, still a few parked in SNN/ORK

kevinandrew

No doubt this will be blown entirely out of proportion by local media and the so called Shannon lobby. There's two angles they'll predictably take, the classic 'Everyone hates Shannon, especially Aer Lingus!' line, and the more recent idea that IAG is some kind of vulture, picking away at our precious national airline and regional airports.

It'll probably end up being about the Belfast City operations by Stobart Air and nothing more.

duskyjoe

Aer Lingus may move transatlantic services from Shannon to the UK
via The Irish Times
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/aer-lingus-may-move-transatlantic-services-from-shannon-to-the-uk-1.4342317

Noxegon

duskyjoe wrote: »

Aer Lingus may move transatlantic services from Shannon to the UK
via The Irish Times
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/aer-lingus-may-move-transatlantic-services-from-shannon-to-the-uk-1.4342317

Ooh, I can’t wait to see the political fallout if that happens

goingnowhere

Nothing new in this, operating from the UK with the LR was something suggested when the first LR arrived in 2019.

There are 4 more to deliver in 2020

duskyjoe

goingnowhere wrote: »

Nothing new in this, operating from the UK with the LR was something suggested when the first LR arrived in 2019.

There are 4 more to deliver in 2020

With respect there is something new in this. They are looking at basing aircraft elsewhere and off shore for their TA ops. Whatever our opinion let’s hope they get the business in- it’s bleak out there

BZ

Is this a surprise when the government have basically stuck their head in the sand when it comes to aviation, no updated green list, tourism etc.in the last few weeks? I work in SNN and I can't blame aer Lingus if they up to the UK as they are a business and have to make money.
The government tactic of not even trying anything like testing on arrival, being able to produce a test on arrival instead just saying nothing and confusing a nation and others is so incredibly frustrating for anyone working in aviation or tourism and fighting to keep a business going.

LiamaDelta

duskyjoe wrote: »

Aer Lingus may move transatlantic services from Shannon to the UK
via The Irish Times
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/aer-lingus-may-move-transatlantic-services-from-shannon-to-the-uk-1.4342317

Very poorly worded headline, if my understanding is correct.
The literal understanding would be that the service is moved to operate from a different country, via Shannon. However reading the article my understanding is the the service is cancelled and the aircraft are moved to a different country to operate a different service? Am I missing something?

L1011

duskyjoe wrote: »

With respect there is something new in this. They are looking at basing aircraft elsewhere and off shore for their TA ops. Whatever our opinion let’s hope they get the business in- it’s bleak out there

Its not actually new though - they operated MAD-IAD in the past.

Jack1985

L1011 wrote: »

Its not actually new though - they operated MAD-IAD in the past.

On behalf of UAL not in their own right.

Jamie2k9

BZ wrote: »

Is this a surprise when the government have basically stuck their head in the sand when it comes to aviation, no updated green list, tourism etc.in the last few weeks? I work in SNN and I can't blame aer Lingus if they up to the UK as they are a business and have to make money.
The government tactic of not even trying anything like testing on arrival, being able to produce a test on arrival instead just saying nothing and confusing a nation and others is so incredibly frustrating for anyone working in aviation or tourism and fighting to keep a business going.

The US are now allowing people in from Ireland or the UK or Europe and if you can you are restricted. The idea such a move is based on the current operating environment is not correct.

Gael23

How long can Aer Lingus keep going under these travel restrictions without substantial reform?

Jack1985

Gael23 wrote: »

How long can Aer Lingus keep going under these travel restrictions without substantial reform?

Reform of what? No amount of changes to cost base (which is the most resilient in terms of operation in IAG) will change anything. Revenue is collapsed by over 90%. EI know this themselves.

The Business will continue to burn cash with current restrictions the fixed costs don't go away.

duskyjoe

L1011 wrote: »

Its not actually new though - they operated MAD-IAD in the past.

Is this the time for point scoring ? No

MrMusician18

Jack1985 wrote: »

Reform of what? No amount of changes to cost base (which is the most resilient in terms of operation in IAG) will change anything. Revenue is collapsed by over 90%. EI know this themselves.

The Business will continue to burn cash with current restrictions the fixed costs don't go away.

Presumably he means by reform is the offloading of the cost base. At the moment I presume the largest driver of cost is the finance, leasing and storage of aircraft.

So by reform I would guess he means disposing of aircraft, cancelling orders, ending leases etc. That information I suspect will not be known outside the boardroom though.

Jack1985

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Presumably he means by reform is the offloading of the cost base. At the moment I presume the largest driver of cost is the finance, leasing and storage of aircraft.

So by reform I would guess he means disposing of aircraft, cancelling orders, ending leases etc. That information I suspect will not be known outside the boardroom though.

It would make no strategical sense to do that, for it to have a financial impact you would be offloading the vast majority of the fleet and in a post COVID recovery the company would then find itself in a market where globally aircraft are re-entering service and leases go up, despite being the the best airline in the group for ROIC.

If it made sense it would be have been done already unfortunately.

Gael23

Jack1985 wrote: »

Reform of what? No amount of changes to cost base (which is the most resilient in terms of operation in IAG) will change anything. Revenue is collapsed by over 90%. EI know this themselves.

The Business will continue to burn cash with current restrictions the fixed costs don't go away.

For how long can they continue to burn cash/operate at a loss?

Jack1985

Gael23 wrote: »

For how long can they continue to burn cash/operate at a loss?

Another few month’s is my estimate. Whether or not IAG continue to support it is anyone’s guess, Willie Walsh says they will but money talks and the Qatari's are in town.

stockshares

Aer Lingus may he moving Transatlantic services to Uk

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/aer-lingus-may-move-transatlantic-services-from-shannon-to-the-uk-1.4342317?mode=amp&__twitter_impression=true

Gael23

That would be the end of the road for Shannon Airport

kevinandrew

I’d be surprised if it happens, I’d be even more surprised if it works out.

Firstly, the Aer Lingus brand doesn’t work in the UK outside of seeing Ireland as a destination or connecting point, they have tried and failed multiple times now.

Secondly, while it’s possible it could be another ‘Operated by Aer Lingus’ venture like Little Red or the Madrid ops for United, I don’t see what IAG has to gain from that or why they wouldn’t source aircraft from their large UK registered fleet if they wanted.

goingnowhere

Transfer traffic through DUB from EDI/MAN says otherwise

In the world of Skyscanner, its price not brand

HTCOne

kevinandrew wrote: »

I’d be surprised if it happens, I’d be even more surprised if it works out.

Firstly, the Aer Lingus brand doesn’t work in the UK outside of seeing Ireland as a destination or connecting point, they have tried and failed multiple times now.

Secondly, while it’s possible it could be another ‘Operated by Aer Lingus’ venture like Little Red or the Madrid ops for United, I don’t see what IAG has to gain from that or why they wouldn’t source aircraft from their large UK registered fleet if they wanted.

I believe the MAN base was profitable before Thatcher booted them out no?

3d4life

HTCOne wrote: »

I believe the MAN base was profitable before Thatcher booted them out no?

30 years ago Maggie finished up as PM. The scene has changed just a little bit since !

HTCOne

3d4life wrote: »

30 years ago Maggie finished up as PM. The scene has changed just a little bit since !

Indeed, there’s no State owned British Airways to protect anymore! MAN is worth a shot if travel between UK and US opens up in fairness. Virgin are on their knees, Thomas Cook are gone, the yanks will be in full retreat once CARES expires and nobody has anything that can compete with the LR’s operating costs.

It’s either that or park them up for the winter.

kona

Fair play to them for coming up with a plan with a reasonable chance of success, any sort of ops that will bring in some cash is great!

goingnowhere

With Norwegian on the ropes, Virgin in serious trouble and possibly going to shut everything bar LHR, Thomas Cook is gone

There is market there for direct services, BA has no interest and doesn't have the aircraft either.

If EI doesn't move on this quickly JetBlue will be in, they have the aircraft and interior (actually better than EI as they have doors on the business class seats)

stockshares

This relates to AL moving their Transatlantic services to the UK. I opened a thread on it earlier but the mods merged it with this one.


Siptu to.ballot members for strike action
https://twitter.com/ingridmileyRTE/status/1300474543748845568?s=19

Are Lingus moving to UK
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/aer-lingus-may-move-transatlantic-services-from-shannon-to-the-uk-1.4342317?mode=amp&__twitter_impression=true

john boye

The spinning of the story about EI looking into UK flights as Shannon losing out is interesting. Their TATL network from Dublin has been decimated and they currently have a large number of their LH fleet in storage. Yet for some reason it's being sold as Shannon that's going to be the loser as if the rest of the network is carrying on regardless.

stockshares

john boye wrote: »

The spinning of the story about EI looking into UK flights as Shannon losing out is interesting. Their TATL network from Dublin has been decimated and they currently have a large number of their LH fleet in storage. Yet for some reason it's being sold as Shannon that's going to be the loser as if the rest of the network is carrying on regardless.

With transatlantic flights drastically reduced and no end to Covid restrictions in sight it looks inevitable that it will close. This will be disastrous for the West of Ireland.

Jack1985

HTCOne wrote: »

Indeed, there’s no State owned British Airways to protect anymore! MAN is worth a shot if travel between UK and US opens up in fairness. Virgin are on their knees, Thomas Cook are gone, the yanks will be in full retreat once CARES expires and nobody has anything that can compete with the LR’s operating costs.

It’s either that or park them up for the winter.

Very well put. IAG don't have the aircraft other than in EI for this venture, a test in the water exercise if you like for an eventual replacement by BA when they get the metal.

They are burning cash currently anything that reduces that must be welcome and will be by their workforce, the moving of assets by an Irish brand out of ROI is a sad reflection of sh*te governance with no direction.

Jack1985

In addition to the targeting of 2 TATL UK Regional routes, at least two London TATL services expected also.

cson

I do wonder what the market for these flights is as long as quarantine rules in the UK and the not insignificant fact of the US continuing to have its outright ban on inbound tourists.

Jack1985

cson wrote: »

I do wonder what the market for these flights is as long as quarantine rules in the UK and the not insignificant fact of the US continuing to have its outright ban on inbound tourists.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-us-and-uk-in-talks-over-quarantine-free-air-bridge-between-london-and-new-york-12057663

3d4life

Jack1985 wrote: »

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-us-and-uk-in-talks-over-quarantine-free-air-bridge-between-london-and-new-york-12057663

Difficult topic. Control at airports is federal and not state. Even now out of state transiting to NY by car an issue.

Trump might be delighted to dump a lot of spreaders in Coumo-land. So could yet happen.

adam88

Just a hypothetical question but if IAG wanted to is there anything stopping them closing down Aer Lingus and transferring everything over to one of the other airline.
Just for a moment imagine they consider Ireland and the Irish market to be a major drain on resources. Are they contracted to maintain a presence in Ireland. Pure hypothetical question

MrMusician18

Jack1985 wrote: »

It would make no strategical sense to do that, for it to have a financial impact you would be offloading the vast majority of the fleet and in a post COVID recovery the company would then find itself in a market where globally aircraft are re-entering service and leases go up, despite being the the best airline in the group for ROIC.

If it made sense it would be have been done already unfortunately.

It makes no strategic sense to burn cash with no end in sight either

Surely the best thing to do for long term survival is to unwind financial exposure as quickly and orderly as possible while a cash buffer still exists to give room for maneuver.

Suppressed demand could last for years or with luck demand could be back again in 6 months. We don't know and the airlines don't know. Holding out for the strategic advantage on the upswing will be a fools errand as many airlines sadly will go to the wall waiting for the corner to be turned.

Cork_Guest

To be fair, it’d be the least we deserve after this government has effectively ignored aviation for the last 6 months, no updated green list even though our case per capita are now above most places they’re not allowing travel to, add in absolutely no financial help yet the U.K. gave Aer Lingus £350 million and RyanAir £650 million out of THEIR Covid support fund! That’s just embarrassing! Seemingly the new normal doesn’t include flying anywhere or drinking any pints.....

goingnowhere

adam88 wrote: »

Just a hypothetical question but if IAG wanted to is there anything stopping them closing down Aer Lingus and transferring everything over to one of the other airline.
Just for a moment imagine they consider Ireland and the Irish market to be a major drain on resources. Are they contracted to maintain a presence in Ireland. Pure hypothetical question

Nothing

The IAG level ops in Vienna have already been shutdown.

The problem child for IAG is BA, too much premium focus and legacy staffing issues.

BA carried approx 4 times what EI did last year but has 10 times the staff, BA 254 aircraft EI 56, but there is a lot lots more in wide bodies which are more expensive to lease/finance.

Jack1985

3d4life wrote: »

Difficult topic. Control at airports is federal and not state...

It's bilateral discussion at a federal level. There was no where in that aritcle that mentioned state approval.

MrMusician18 wrote: »

It makes no strategic sense to burn cash with no end in sight either

Surely the best thing to do for long term survival is to unwind financial exposure as quickly and orderly as possible while a cash buffer still exists to give room for maneuver.

Suppressed demand could last for years or with luck demand could be back again in 6 months. We don't know and the airlines don't know. Holding out for the strategic advantage on the upswing will be a fools errand as many airlines sadly will go to the wall waiting for the corner to be turned.

Afraid not, it's not as simple to just cancel leases there are financial penalties and other fixed costs for the business that can’t be offloaded. The plan involves long-term storage of some aircraft which is already in effect. Aer Lingus might be haemorrhaging cash but it's the carrier within the group that is doing the least of it with the right airframes for a recovery.

I don’t envisage suppressed demand lasting years; recovery will come in 2021 - It's simply not possible for economies to remain in the current status without massive fallout for all stakeholders.

For 2019 level traffic demand to return might not occur till post 2024 possibly.

Cork_Guest wrote: »

...yet the U.K. gave Aer Lingus £350 million and RyanAir £650 million out of THEIR Covid support fund! That’s just embarrassing! Seemingly the new normal doesn’t include flying anywhere or drinking any pints.....

Just to clarify BA got money from the British Gov, Aer Lingus have recieved nothing other than TWSS.

smurfjed

Just to clarify BA got money from the British Gov, Aer Lingus have recieved nothing other than TWSS.

Thanks for the clarification, I was wondering when EI got €350m.

joeysoap

Will Brexit impact on this.?

cson

Jack1985 wrote: »

It's bilateral discussion at a federal level. There was no where in that aritcle that mentioned state approval.

States in the US have some autonomy when it comes to COVID approaches, the Tristate area has what's effectively a red list of States which it requires mandatory quarantine. You'd likely be able to get in, but you can forget about any touristing with those restrictions in place if you want to abide by the law, to what extent the law is enforced is another matter altogether.

Unfortunately US travel restrictions have, and will continue to have, a huge knock on impact for EI who are somewhat uniquely exposed to it (FI probably as well).