Aer Lingus Fleet/ Routes Discussion Pt 2 (ALL possible routes included)

L1011

Nobody expects that IAG LOI to go anywhere.

HTCOne

Not to mention cargo, 737s are bulk loaded, which tends to make them more attractive to LCCs with no real freight ops or Legacies big enough to have mixed fleets. The one place these Max were never going to end up was BA at LHR as their baggage system there is entirely containerised.

I was also always skeptical about this LOI going anywhere. It was signed at the height of the MAX crisis pre COVID, so the agreed price might have been cost or even below for Boeing to get a blue chip customer on board and steady stock market nerves. Then IAG could sit happy knowing it was up to Airbus to dig deep and match the offer if they wanted the order. It was also signed at a time where WW was taking every opportunity to bash Airbus over Neo delays and their impact on EI in particular. All this put together could have been IAG turning the screw on Airbus to make ammends.

Things have changed since the LOI was signed; production has been slashed but Airbus are ready to pile resources back into NEO production and have warned their suppliers to be ready, and they might be a lot easier to negotiate with than pre COVID. On the other hand if Airbus can't match the Max LOI pricing then IAG get 200 Max for pennies, in which case the savings up front offset the losses of running an inferior aircraft.

Avoation1091

DUZ left SNN today after being in storage. Is it going back into service or longer term storage?

Jack1985

Avoation1091 wrote: »

DUZ left SNN today after being in storage. Is it going back into service or longer term storage?

Back into service, operating EI178 DUB-LHR on Friday currently.

Shamrockj

New route commencing 01st of May 2021 Dublin to Santorini. Operating Wednesday and Saturday until September 25th. Hopefully the start of more to come .

Jack1985

Dublin-Gran Canaria recommences once per week from Saturday 09/01, Lanzarote and Tenerife see ad-hoc increased capacity due to demand.

cson

Shamrockj wrote: »

New route commencing 01st of May 2021 Dublin to Santorini. Operating Wednesday and Saturday until September 25th. Hopefully the start of more to come .

Reacting to demand I imagine - wasn't Greece one of the only countries open for tourism last summer?

Probably some slack in the Grecian accommodation market from having no Americans, so they can price more attractively than they usually would.

Anyway, that flight is going to be the Instagram Express.

Avoation1091

EI-LRE Spotted in Hamburg

Looks to be St Lassara.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/danraistrick/50680244781/in/photolist-2kdrv6P-2kdrv8c-2kdfcUB-2kd3khJ-2kd68tk-2kcYqoy-2kcZRVt-2kd4GNL-2kd58ua-2kd4GPN-2kcZS1i-2kcZRUr-2kd4GRg-2kd4GSD-2kcZRSh-2kcKbhT-2kcC8GY-2kcMTd5-2kd8gxd-2kd5qWZ-2kd5RsU-2kcfs51-2kceZP1-2kcqmkX-2kcBzRh-2kbKJgn-2kbJVLt-2kcpWB3-2kbFbQS-2kb9FCC-2kb7Az4-2kb85ib-2kb9cTe-2kckVzH-2kcRyTN-2kajKS9-2kajeQc-2kajGgU-2ka3Yvz-2ka2VTs-2kabSKv-2kabUp2-2k9J4iw-2kaUgQK-2kaQqXT-2k9Zucv-2k9Veob-2k9LHLz-2k9GTsU-2kbRhHs

Jack1985

Aer Lingus will be making much deeper cuts from regional bases at Cork and Shannon than previously envisaged. Possibly up to 9 routes not operating next Summer from these airports and in total up to 3 aircraft potentially moving away from the bases, there is expected to be no European services ex-Shannon.

Expected that the only services relatively left unscathed will be ORK-AMS/LHR and SNN-BOS/LHR/JFK, however the latter will very much be market conditions dependent. It's unfortunate but the regional airports have a steep uphill battle for the next few years to restore these losses.

The focus is to restore the majority of DUB operations to the fullest extent possible for S21 by generating P2P demand (Sun routes) and additional transfer traffic to dually support the routes. Of course, as I always stress this is subject to change.

Van.Bosch

Jack1985 wrote: »

Aer Lingus will be making much deeper cuts from regional bases at Cork and Shannon than previously envisaged. Possibly up to 9 routes not operating next Summer from these airports and in total up to 3 aircraft potentially moving away from the bases, there is expected to be no European services ex-Shannon.

Expected that the only services relatively left unscathed will be ORK-AMS/LHR and SNN-BOS/LHR/JFK, however the latter will very much be market conditions dependent. It's unfortunate but the regional airports have a steep uphill battle for the next few years to restore these losses.

The focus is to restore the majority of DUB operations to the fullest extent possible for S21 by generating P2P demand (Sun routes) and additional transfer traffic to dually support the routes. Of course, as I always stress this is subject to change.

Without any judgement - the Covid pandemic could be the end of EI at these airports at any kind of scale. As airlines rebuild their schedules they will do so at their hubs, if the pax from Cork & Shannon use Dublin, then EI may see more sense adding frequencies in Dublin than restoring the regional routes. The US carriers returning to Shannon might prompt the US routes to return. Interesting times.

Avoation1091

Van.Bosch wrote: »

Without any judgement - the Covid pandemic could be the end of EI at these airports at any kind of scale. As airlines rebuild their schedules they will do so at their hubs, if the pax from Cork & Shannon use Dublin, then EI may see more sense adding frequencies in Dublin than restoring the regional routes. The US carriers returning to Shannon might prompt the US routes to return. Interesting times.

The US Carriers will so far come back to SNN according to Mary Considine. UA & DL will be back in S22 at the earliest though. AA are scheduled to be back next year and operate SNN-PHL with the Dreamliner. Hopefully there is more pax for EI SNN-JFK next year since UA & DL wont be back until 22. All depends on people wanting to travel though and if EI return to Shannon. The vaccine rollout will help.

Locker10a

Van.Bosch wrote: »

Without any judgement - the Covid pandemic could be the end of EI at these airports at any kind of scale. As airlines rebuild their schedules they will do so at their hubs, if the pax from Cork & Shannon use Dublin, then EI may see more sense adding frequencies in Dublin than restoring the regional routes. The US carriers returning to Shannon might prompt the US routes to return. Interesting times.

Yeah that’s a fair judgement but I think Cork in particular always performed very well especially sun routes, would EI be happy to hand over market share to someone else on these routes.

cson

Avoation1091 wrote: »

The US Carriers will so far come back to SNN according to Mary Considine. UA & DL will be back in S22 at the earliest though. AA are scheduled to be back next year and operate SNN-PHL with the Dreamliner. Hopefully there is more pax for EI SNN-JFK next year since UA & DL wont be back until 22. All depends on people wanting to travel though and if EI return to Shannon. The vaccine rollout will help.

The 787 is too much gear for SNN. They'll drop that as soon as they run the numbers on it over 6 weeks I reckon.

The retirement of the 757 would have me concerned for SNN, they fit a nice rotation space for UA/AA/DL doing a SJU-PHL-SNN spin or an LAX-EWR-SNN.

Surprised SNN wouldn't be seen to have the ability to support an LHR rotation from an EI perspective.

TheBetsy

If the booking engine is anything to go by seems Paris, Barcelona, Nice, Lisbon, Alicante all canned from Cork next summer? Faro and Malaga currently bookable as 3pw having had a frequency of 10 pw I believe over the last few peak seasons. Obviously the above is nothing confirmed but certainly paints a bleak enough picture for EIs operations from the airport next summer.

HTCOne

I've mentioned a few times I'm very worried about Shannon's future. I totally agree the 787 is too much plane. Delta ran the 767 for one year on SNN-BOS a couple of years ago and reverted to the 757. AFAIK Delta are not retiring the 757 so they might be back, but until AA and UA get the 321XLR (2023 at the earliest) I don't think they'll be back.

As for EI, who knows. The LRs will likely be needed in DUB to build back up business til there's enough demand to pull 330s out of storage. Then there's the 2 or 3 that might be in Manchester. On the other hand, most people's pay has been unaffected by COVID. The property prices are expected to keep climbing, more mortgages are being approved than ever before because so many people are saving so much right now due having less expenses as a result of working from home. Demand for discretionary travel may rocket once borders open. Fingers crossed.

Avoation1091

Will EI still have an A320 in Shannon? Plan a few weeks looked to be just two LR but the 320 seems scheduled on the SNN LHR

Shamrockj

At the moment it looks like there will still be an A320 in Shannon but I could easily see that changing. The early LHR could easily be operated by a A321NEOLR and the later ones can be operated by an aircraft from Dublin or Cork etc

Avoation1091

Shamrockj wrote: »

At the moment it looks like there will still be an A320 in Shannon but I could easily see that changing. The early LHR could easily be operated by a A321NEOLR and the later ones can be operated by an aircraft from Dublin or Cork etc

EI380 was showing as a NEO but got reverted back to an A320. Changes to come again maybe.

LRE did a test flight in Hamburg today. It must be due for delivery soon.

highlydebased

There was a revised SNN-LHR schedule on sale last week which involved EI380/1 being done on the 321 and an hour later throughout 0845 departure from SNN. The other two rotations were down as W from Dublin at different times including EI388 departing SNN at 2120

Kcormahs

I am truely amazed with Aer Lingus and its Covid19 losses. Reading from other forums there is no flag carrier or former flag carrier in Europe that hasn't gotten a bailout from the EU at this point. Air France and TAP are heading for their second bailout for 2021 now. Even Iberia, from the same group (IAG) has had access to a credit facility in Spain and the Spanish government is considering a bailout in 2021. From what I have been reading AF-KLM were bailed out with 11bn+ (7bn+3bn respectively)
Lufthansa Group 14bn (this includes all its airlines too in Belgium, Austria and Switzerland)
Alitalia re-nationalised and given a start-up of 3bn by the italian gov
TAP 1.2bn + 1.6bn for 2021
TAROM €600m
SAS 1.1bn
Finnair €826m
and many more ( https://www.greenpeace.org/eu-unit/issues/climate-energy/2725/airline-bailout-tracker/ )

Will the Irish Government really leave Aer Lingus outside and without facilities of getting any support or even letting it go down?

For the usual folk saying Aer Lingus isn't an Irish company anymore and that its been privatised so it should get nothing etc. bare in mind many of those companies are/were also private groups (incld Lufthansa) and still they got bailouts...

Van.Bosch

Kcormahs wrote: »

I am truely amazed with Aer Lingus and its Covid19 losses. Reading from other forums there is no flag carrier or former flag carrier in Europe that hasn't gotten a bailout from the EU at this point. Air France and TAP are heading for their second bailout for 2021 now. Even Iberia, from the same group (IAG) has had access to a credit facility in Spain and the Spanish government is considering a bailout in 2021. From what I have been reading AF-KLM were bailed out with 11bn+ (7bn+3bn respectively)
Lufthansa Group 14bn (this includes all its airlines too in Belgium, Austria and Switzerland)
Alitalia re-nationalised and given a start-up of 3bn by the italian gov
TAP 1.2bn + 1.6bn for 2021
TAROM €600m
SAS 1.1bn
Finnair €826m
and many more ( https://www.greenpeace.org/eu-unit/issues/climate-energy/2725/airline-bailout-tracker/ )

Will the Irish Government really leave Aer Lingus outside and without facilities of getting any support or even letting it go down?

For the usually folk saying Aer Lingus isn't an Irish company anymore and that its been privatised so it should get nothing etc. bare in mind many of those companies are/were also private groups (incld Lufthansa) and still they got bailouts...

It’s a good comprehensive point but has the Irish government rejected assistance, they aren’t going to bail out someone who hasn’t asked for help.

cson

Kcormahs wrote: »

I am truely amazed with Aer Lingus and its Covid19 losses. Reading from other forums there is no flag carrier or former flag carrier in Europe that hasn't gotten a bailout from the EU at this point. Air France and TAP are heading for their second bailout for 2021 now. Even Iberia, from the same group (IAG) has had access to a credit facility in Spain and the Spanish government is considering a bailout in 2021. From what I have been reading AF-KLM were bailed out with 11bn+ (7bn+3bn respectively)
Lufthansa Group 14bn (this includes all its airlines too in Belgium, Austria and Switzerland)
Alitalia re-nationalised and given a start-up of 3bn by the italian gov
TAP 1.2bn + 1.6bn for 2021
TAROM €600m
SAS 1.1bn
Finnair €826m
and many more ( https://www.greenpeace.org/eu-unit/issues/climate-energy/2725/airline-bailout-tracker/ )

Will the Irish Government really leave Aer Lingus outside and without facilities of getting any support or even letting it go down?

For the usual folk saying Aer Lingus isn't an Irish company anymore and that its been privatised so it should get nothing etc. bare in mind many of those companies are/were also private groups (incld Lufthansa) and still they got bailouts...

How would you feel about FR getting one? Interested to hear the thought process, because I would imagine the reticence from Government Buildings is sauce for goose/sauce for the gander if they bail EI out.

Fwiw I do believe some form of assistance or guarantor assurances should be provided if requested.

HTCOne

Van.Bosch wrote: »

It’s a good comprehensive point but has the Irish government rejected assistance, they aren’t going to bail out someone who hasn’t asked for help.

Who says they didn't (informally)?

The best run airlines pre COVID built up cash reserves in the good times, the bad ones get bailed out to continue to "compete". An injustice to put it mildly.

blackwhite

They haven't taken any airline-specific state bailout - but they did avail of the TWSS and are likely now participating in the EWSS - both of which will result in not insignificant state support to Aer Lingus.


I'd imagine that there's a reluctance to look for direct State bailouts by IAG in general unless they absolutely need it for survival. Taking a direct bailout will come with lots of conditions, and would hugely compromise any airlines ability to make hard decisions about unviable routes without state interference for years to come.
Similar logic for Ryanair not looking for any Govt bailouts also

LiamaDelta

Kcormahs wrote: »

I am truely amazed with Aer Lingus and its Covid19 losses. Reading from other forums there is no flag carrier or former flag carrier in Europe that hasn't gotten a bailout from the EU at this point. Air France and TAP are heading for their second bailout for 2021 now. Even Iberia, from the same group (IAG) has had access to a credit facility in Spain and the Spanish government is considering a bailout in 2021. From what I have been reading AF-KLM were bailed out with 11bn+ (7bn+3bn respectively)
Lufthansa Group 14bn (this includes all its airlines too in Belgium, Austria and Switzerland)
Alitalia re-nationalised and given a start-up of 3bn by the italian gov
TAP 1.2bn + 1.6bn for 2021
TAROM €600m
SAS 1.1bn
Finnair €826m
and many more ( https://www.greenpeace.org/eu-unit/issues/climate-energy/2725/airline-bailout-tracker/ )

Will the Irish Government really leave Aer Lingus outside and without facilities of getting any support or even letting it go down?

For the usual folk saying Aer Lingus isn't an Irish company anymore and that its been privatised so it should get nothing etc. bare in mind many of those companies are/were also private groups (incld Lufthansa) and still they got bailouts...

It's a sign of strength that they haven't needed a bailout. Why should a company take on debt if they don't need to? Those loans aren't free money, they come with conditions attached. And as mentioned, they haven't asked for a bailout so a government can't force it on them.

Graham

LiamaDelta wrote: »

Why should a company take on debt if they don't need to? Those loans aren't free money, they come with conditions attached.

It's not all debt but you're certainly right about the 'conditions'.

The German government took a 20% shareholding in Lufthansa as part of their €9bn bailout.

The eye watering bailout of Air-France-KLM might end up around €16bn some of which may be converted to equity.

TAP Air Portugal, €1.2bn with more on the way and the Portuguese state increasing its shareholding from 50% - 75%.

LiamaDelta

Graham wrote: »

It's not all debt but you're certainly right about the 'conditions'.

The German government took a 20% shareholding in Lufthansa as part of their €9bn bailout.

The eye watering bailout of Air-France-KLM might end up around €16bn some of which may be converted to equity.

TAP Air Portugal, €1.2bn with more on the way and the Portuguese state increasing its shareholding from 50% - 75%.

Yup. every company knows that swapping debt for equity, or using shareholding as collateral is an absolute last resort. They will generally raise money from shareholders (which IAG did) to tide them over. As far as I know Ryanair also did a share issue to build up cash. They are both in a very good position. To be fair to Willie Walsh he's as shrewd as you can get when it comes to financial management and had IAG in a good position before he left.

Shamrockj

It looks like EI-EDY and -ELA plus 2 of the new arriving A321NEOLR will be be registered under UK reg and operated from Manchester next year.

goingnowhere

Shamrockj wrote: »

It looks like EI-EDY and -ELA plus 2 of the new arriving A321NEOLR will be be registered under UK reg and operated from Manchester next year.

Interesting, well we can put to bed the Las Vegas debate as ELA, EDY are not fitted with crew rest so won't be going further than MCO

Tenger

cson wrote: »

How would you feel about FR getting one? Interested to hear the thought process, because I would imagine the reticence from Government Buildings is sauce for goose/sauce for the gander if they bail EI out.

Fwiw I do believe some form of assistance or guarantor assurances should be provided if requested.

Ryanair have availed of UK Govt assistance (as have Wizzair)
Not quite the same as a bailout but Govt help nonetheless.