Aer Lingus Fleet/ Routes Discussion Pt 2 (ALL possible routes included)

Idbatterim

goingnowhere wrote: »

Interesting, well we can put to bed the Las Vegas debate as ELA, EDY are not fitted with crew rest so won't be going further than MCO

Would they not use an a330 on the route? Looking forward to jetblue coming into Dublin...

L1011

Vegas talk is specifically and utterly banned on this thread until such point as it is confirmed by EI - if ever. And the last poster definitely knows better than to try talk about it, even if some others may not

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/aer-lingus-to-move-aircraft-for-us-flights-from-ireland-to-uk-1.4434422

I know this signals the limiting of growth at DUB but could we see a reduction in services from DUB as a result? (post pandemic)

Kcormahs

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/aer-lingus-to-move-aircraft-for-us-flights-from-ireland-to-uk-1.4434422

I know this signals the limiting of growth at DUB but could we see a reduction in services from DUB as a result? (post pandemic)

Well for a start, Miami and Minneapolis have both officially been discontinued permanently. Many european frequencies have been cut too including Manchester-Dublin down to 3 times a day in some days of the week for next summer opposed to 7 times a day in 2019 and so on

Kermit.de.frog

Kcormahs wrote: »

Well for a start, Miami and Minneapolis have both officially been discontinued permanently. Many european frequencies have been cut too including Manchester-Dublin down to 3 times a day in some days of the week for next summer opposed to 7 times a day in 2019 and so on

I'm thinking more long term. Not cuts as a direct result of the pandemic which of course are universal.

More specifically Aer Lingus had a well developed strategy for Dublin as a hub.

I'm more wondering is this signaling an end to those ambitions - or at least a brake.

goingnowhere

IAG is just waiting for some further consolidation to occur and to pounce on the gaps, EI has gone after Thomas Cook at MAN, there will be others. The A321NEOLR is the key here, there aren't many flying and EI has a pile on order. The American carriers won't be able to compete with a 757 too thirsty and a 787 will be too big.

A lot of airlines are now lumped with state issued loans and cash and will suffer from political interference and from cash flow issues to pay off, IAG to date is free to do its own thing.

The pre-clearance in Dublin is still a massive business advantage. The real question is business travel when it resume and to what extent. One thing is clear if next summer Europe is back open there will be massive demand as we all scramble to get a holiday. But what EI want to know is what demand to FRA will be like on a wet November Tuesday morning, that remains to be seen.

notuslimited

goingnowhere wrote: »

IAG is just waiting for some further consolidation to occur and to pounce on the gaps, EI has gone after Thomas Cook at MAN, there will be others. The A321NEOLR is the key here, there aren't many flying and EI has a pile on order. The American carriers won't be able to compete with a 757 too thirsty and a 787 will be too big.

A lot of airlines are now lumped with state issued loans and cash and will suffer from political interference and from cash flow issues to pay off, IAG to date is free to do its own thing.

The pre-clearance in Dublin is still a massive business advantage. The real question is business travel when it resume and to what extent. One thing is clear if next summer Europe is back open there will be massive demand as we all scramble to get a holiday. But what EI want to know is what demand to FRA will be like on a wet November Tuesday morning, that remains to be seen.

I was a weekly commuter to FRA ex DUB (office is there). We have been told that teleworking will continue to at least 1 June 2021 (began in March) and it’s clear we are never going back to pre Covid ways of working. My guess is that my weekly flights to FRA will move to a monthly trip to the office. My ways of working have changed forever and flights will be a much smaller part of my life (and I bet I am one of many).

Captain_Crash

notuslimited wrote: »

I was a weekly commuter to FRA ex DUB (office is there). We have been told that teleworking will continue to at least 1 June 2021 (began in March) and it’s clear we are never going back to pre Covid ways of working. My guess is that my weekly flights to FRA will move to a monthly trip to the office. My ways of working have changed forever and flights will be a much smaller part of my life (and I bet I am one of many).

My company is the opposite. We’ve been home since March and have been told WFH is going to be part of our working lives for good but also that they expect business travel to be back to pre covid levels as soon as feasible.

billy few mates

goingnowhere wrote: »

IAG is just waiting for some further consolidation to occur and to pounce on the gaps, EI has gone after Thomas Cook at MAN, there will be others. The A321NEOLR is the key here, there aren't many flying and EI has a pile on order. The American carriers won't be able to compete with a 757 too thirsty and a 787 will be too big.

Any fuel savings will be more than wiped out by the lease costs of a brand new A321NEOLR when compared to the operating costs of a B757 which has been bought and paid for several times over.

Shamrockj

billy few mates wrote: »

Any fuel savings will be more than wiped out by the lease costs of a brand new A321NEOLR when compared to the operating costs of a B757 which has been bought and paid for several times over.

Not really. Fuel isn’t the only saving the A321NEOLR offers. Pilot and crew training is a huge saving, fleet utilization the NEO can do a European flight between down time in Dublin also saving on parking fees in Dublin. It also has a few extra seats including 4 extra seats in business which is a nice earner, revenue from WiFi is also a bonus.

goingnowhere

Starting fresh today, yes its cheaper to lease a 757 but more expensive to run and maintain, however the airlines have what they have in the fleets and the leases etc must be paid so ownership cost isn't part of the discussion really, its what can generate some positive cash flow

billy few mates

Shamrockj wrote: »

Not really. Fuel isn’t the only saving the A321NEOLR offers. Pilot and crew training is a huge saving, fleet utilization the NEO can do a European flight between down time in Dublin also saving on parking fees in Dublin. It also has a few extra seats including 4 extra seats in business which is a nice earner, revenue from WiFi is also a bonus.

My answer was in relation to the suggestion that American airlines operating B757s wouldn't be able to compete with Aer Lingus operating brand new A321LRs, crew training and fleet utilisation has nothing to do with it in this instance.
Fuel saving benefits are only maximised in times of high fuel prices so won't really be a factor now and likewise the extra capacity will only be a benefit in times of high demand, so also not really a factor at the moment.
The point is that the B757s operated by the American carriers will likely be owned outright having been bought and paid for many years ago so they won't have to factor in expensive lease costs into their operating costs.
Yes maintenance is more expensive the older the airplane gets but the B757 fleet was renowned for its build quality and reliability and these legacy fleets would have been well looked after over the years so the maintenance costs would not be as high as you might think, they're easy to maintain and parts are still widely available. There are also no major ADs, SBs or expensive upgrades or aging aircraft programs affecting them that would limit the life span.

Jack1985

KLM/AF seizing on opportunity presented by EI, to upscale services and capacity on ORK-AMS/CDG. KLM sending 737's over the Christmas period due demand, and will operate in total up to four daily services with overnighting aircraft from Cork to both Amsterdam (twice daily) and Paris CDG (twice daily) for Summer 2021.

EI have operated ORK-CDG since the 1990s and will be terminating the service, I don’t see EI’s ORK-AMS lasting without KL feed at the capacity planned for S21 or any point thereafter. EI will terminate Cork to Alicante, Barcelona, Lisbon, Nice and Paris CDG and slash-based units by 50% from 4 to 2 during Summer. As well as this Shannon to Barcelona, Faro, Malaga and Paris CDG are also gone as is Dublin-Montpellier.

California Dreamer

Jack1985 wrote: »

KLM/AF seizing on opportunity presented by EI, to upscale services and capacity on ORK-AMS/CDG. KLM sending 737's over the Christmas period due demand, and will operate in total up to four daily services with overnighting aircraft from Cork to both Amsterdam (twice daily) and Paris CDG (twice daily) for Summer 2021.

Either EI do not give a single f**k about ORK or someone really took the gas off the pedal on that one and allowed someone in their back door like that!

Locker10a

Jack1985 wrote: »

EI will terminate Cork to Alicante, Barcelona, Lisbon, Nice and Paris CDG and slash-based units by 50% from 4 to 2 during Summer. As well as this Shannon to Barcelona, Faro, Malaga and Paris CDG are also gone as is Dublin-Montpellier.

I sincerely hope this is temporary termination for only part of 2021 and these routes and the full base will return to ORK.
I can’t see why it shouldn’t when for many many years they’ve had a successful and profitable operation out of Cork. Perhaps they’re looking for a better deal on fees with the airport, I certainly hope that’s the case

HTCOne

Is it 3 A320s have left the fleet so far this year? That capacity has to be cut somewhere in the network.

goingnowhere

3 A320 gone
3 A321 in long term storage (but looks like a part out)

The A321NEO's provide some first wave cover to fill the gaps

Jack1985

PE is being maintained although stored at the moment.

Jack1985

Locker10a wrote: »

I sincerely hope this is temporary termination for only part of 2021 and these routes and the full base will return to ORK.
I can’t see why it shouldn’t when for many many years they’ve had a successful and profitable operation out of Cork. Perhaps they’re looking for a better deal on fees with the airport, I certainly hope that’s the case

I don't see anything positive that will follow this, if you look at the route profile for S21 with just 2 aircraft, there won't be justification for 2 aircraft in Winter 21/22 - That would question EI's commitment thereafter at all to European op's ex-ORK. It's a waiting game now for AMS to be cut severely or cut altogether by Winter 21 I'd imagine especially with the KLM/AF quick move. This is EI at Cork back to 1990’s levels.

EI have foolishly seeded completely their market share to competitors at ORK, Ryanair for example as of today in their booking engine will operate daily for the first time between Cork and Faro next year and have increased services from Cork to Alicante, Lanzarote, Malaga and Palma.

It'd be prudent if possible, for Cork Management to try sway Vueling onto Barcelona-Cork, the sister airline Iberia Express does well on Madrid-Cork with students particularly.

Tenger

HTCOne wrote: »

Is it 3 A320s have left the fleet so far this year? That capacity has to be cut somewhere in the network.

They had approx 30 A320s?
Reducing Fleet by 10% isn't an issue when your estimate for S21 is 70% operations.

a/tel

I had a flight booked with AL for May, SNN - BOS return.

Emailed me yesterday cancelling the booking and rebooking same dates but out of Dublin.

Looking at AL website no SNN-BOS flights for May.

Looks like it starts up again in June.

Bad news for SNN.

I rebooked for SNN-JFK, flying out of SNN for convenience and stress free experience. Couldn't be dealing witha packed DUB pre-clearance.

EchoIndiaBravo

EI-LRE completed its customer acceptance flight in Hamburg this afternoon. Anyone got a delivery date?

Shamrockj

EchoIndiaBravo wrote: »

EI-LRE completed its customer acceptance flight in Hamburg this afternoon. Anyone got a delivery date?

Down as 18.10 arrival into Dublin on Monday at the moment

Tenger

a/tel wrote: »

I rebooked for SNN-JFK, flying out of SNN for convenience and stress free experience. Couldn't be dealing witha packed DUB pre-clearance.

Doubt it will be “packed” in May

Van.Bosch

Tenger wrote: »

Doubt it will be “packed” in May

Doubt it will be packed in 2021

Jack1985

Van.Bosch wrote: »

Doubt it will be packed in 2021

Wouldn’t be confident in casting those views yet, noticeable uptick in bookings for North America inbound Travel next Summer, this would be welcome relief for our Hospitalty and Tourism sectors with a much needed bounce back for those sectors.

CBP won't operate at full capacity either if schedules don't, so unfortunately queues should be expected. If vaccine occurs on schedule especially in the United States and the booked travel trends continue I'm much more hopeful for Summer 2021. One flight with EI next Summer from LAX in June lists 5 J seats free out of 30.

Avoation1091

I have also noticed a couple of flights ex Shannon sold out of Saver fares already for S21. Looks like tour groups have booked the flight.

Avoation1091

Also a lovely advert by EI for Xmas.

https://youtu.be/OmSwgeX5Yx4

Hope Irish abroad can make it home next year for Christmas.

john boye

Shamrockj wrote: »

It looks like EI-EDY and -ELA plus 2 of the new arriving A321NEOLR will be be registered under UK reg and operated from Manchester next year.

A very minor thing really but isn't ELA St. Patrick? Would they have the aircraft named after the patron Saint fly on a UK reg or will they change it I wonder?

cson

john boye wrote: »

A very minor thing really but isn't ELA St. Patrick? Would they have the aircraft named after the patron Saint fly on a UK reg or will they change it I wonder?

St Patrick was from the UK sure!