Aer Lingus Fleet/ Routes Discussion Pt 2 (ALL possible routes included)

Van.Bosch

Jack1985 wrote: »

If you'd have said to me 12 months ago that employment would go from 4,500 to 3,500 that salaries would be cut by 50% and in some instances down as far -75% (albeit being recovered somewhat) I would have that you were being particularly pessimistic.

The reality is EI have no tangible opportunity to plan for recovery, no dates whatsoever to try and feed a meaningful recovery. I honestly cannot see the operation rising to any sort of a meaningful level with the current status quo. The reality is the worst outcome may be reality indeed without a gear change in Government.

Spot on - the light is that there will be a lot of pent up demand so you’d hope it will bounce back to a decent %

Kermit.de.frog

Van.Bosch wrote: »

Spot on - the light is that there will be a lot of pent up demand so you’d hope it will bounce back to a decent %

Serious pent up demand to be unleashed. I read that the average household has seen their disposable savings increase by 12% through the pandemic (2% more than in the UK) and the vast majority have not had a holiday in so long...you'd have to assume there'll be a big surge for flights when the opportunity arises.

Good news is they seem to be speeding up reopening plans but we have yet to see anything concrete on aviation.

Van.Bosch

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Serious pent up demand to be unleashed. I read that the average household has seen their disposable savings increase by 12% through the pandemic (2% more than in the UK) and the vast majority have not had a holiday in so long...you'd have to assume there'll be a big surge for flights when the opportunity arises.

Good news is they seem to be speeding up reopening plans but we have yet to see anything concrete on aviation.

Personally I would have taken 5 trips which I didn’t do due to Covid, reckon if I could I would do about 3 now this year. It’s still a lot of list revenue but once people have believe they can travel in Q3/4 the cash will start rolling in for airlines.

cson

Blue in the face saying it, but there's a ton of demand from the US to be captured if only the Government could figure out a strategy to enable Aer Lingus (and the Irish tourism industry in general) to do that. Bookings for Greece (who took a lead on this) from the US are supposedly very high.

Locker10a

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Serious pent up demand to be unleashed. I read that the average household has seen their disposable savings increase by 12% through the pandemic (2% more than in the UK) and the vast majority have not had a holiday in so long...you'd have to assume there'll be a big surge for flights when the opportunity arises.

Good news is they seem to be speeding up reopening plans but we have yet to see anything concrete on aviation.

Hopefully for the airlines there’ll be added winter-sun and ski demand this winter season

HTCOne

Other EU countries saying they'll let the yanks in unrestricted so long as they've been fully vaccinated, hopefully our Government will do the same....the data is very promising, even with the variants. Israel had 8 fully vaccinated people still get the infection from the South African variant as I recall. All were asymptomatic, and thats out of a vaccinated population of 7 million....

It looks like the Brits' gamble of getting as many first doses into people as quickly as possible at the expense of getting second doses into people is paying off. Another few weeks of hard data from that will hopefully cause NPHET to follow suit. Even taking our industry out of the equation it reduces cases and crucially deaths from the data so far.

cson

France opening to Americans from June 9th.

https://www.thelocal.fr/20210429/latest-france-set-to-reopen-borders-to-american-tourists-from-june-9th/

Tourist that could have been captured by us.

Now god knows what state EI will be in once all is said and done.

Tenger

cson wrote: »

France opening to Americans from June 9th.

https://www.thelocal.fr/20210429/latest-france-set-to-reopen-borders-to-american-tourists-from-june-9th/

Tourist that could have been captured by us.

Now god knows what state EI will be in once all is said and done.

EI can offer flights to France via Dublin.

And Ireland never closed to US visitors.

basill

Where were the US tourists going to go with Garda checkpoints and the country closed.

Tenger

basill wrote: »

Where were the US tourists going to go with Garda checkpoints and the country closed.

Well, no-where to be honest.(which is why the social media stories of "1000s of American roaming the country" have annoyed me)
But plenty of US visitors were able to fly in a visit family. Obviously this number would be a trickle compared to normal times.

European countries "opening for US visitors" might sound more dramatic than it actually is.
While they are open they may not be attractive to tourists.

But of course it would be great to see Irish Govt extend a welcome to try capture a chunk of any renewed US tourism market. EI at 3 routes are a shadow of their previous plan for 2020 of 16-17 daily departures.

Van.Bosch

Tenger wrote: »

Well, no-where to be honest.(which is why the social media stories of "1000s of American roaming the country" have annoyed me)
But plenty of US visitors were able to fly in a visit family. Obviously this number would be a trickle compared to normal times.

European countries "opening for US visitors" might sound more dramatic than it actually is.
While they are open they may not be attractive to tourists.

But of course it would be great to see Irish Govt extend a welcome to try capture a chunk of any renewed US tourism market. EI at 3 routes are a shadow of their previous plan for 2020 of 16-17 daily departures.

3 departures from 16/17 is really bleak alright and shows how rough it has been.

You’re other point is also spot on, if we want Tourists to visit, European or US, then it isn’t really enough to just stop fining people. You really need to get the message out that Ireland is open for business so tourists will see it as worthwhile and that isn’t something I think the govt will be doing this summer.

Phen2206

http://clareherald.com/2021/05/no-aer-lingus-us-flights-from-shannon-until-2022-20522/

Interesting article, assuming it is accurate. Sadly no surprise that SNN might not be considered for a resumption of services this year. However it is interesting that supposedly some more exotic destinations are being considered for Dublin perhaps for the winter. Its possible that people will be mad to get some winter sun this coming season so something like BGI could work in theory but I would wonder if travel to such places would be allowed if their vaccination rate/covid cases are not comparable to those here. Hopefully not though.

Jack1985

Phen2206 wrote: »

http://clareherald.com/2021/05/no-aer-lingus-us-flights-from-shannon-until-2022-20522/

Interesting article, assuming it is accurate. Sadly no surprise that SNN might not be considered for a resumption of services this year. However it is interesting that supposedly some more exotic destinations are being considered for Dublin perhaps for the winter. Its possible that people will be mad to get some winter sun this coming season so something like BGI could work in theory but I would wonder if travel to such places would be allowed if their vaccination rate/covid cases are not comparable to those here. Hopefully not though.

Have heard Barbados and Cancun. It seems medium-term MSP won’t return but all other routes are hoped to be recovered by S22.

neutrino

Jack1985 wrote: »

Have heard Barbados and Cancun. It seems medium-term MSP won’t return but all other routes are hoped to be recovered by S22.

These are possibly in conjunction with cruise companies resuming sailings, and may be something along the lines of flight to Barbados/Cancun - cruise to Miami, flight home, and vice versa. Miami was popular for cruises, and seats were often sold as part of a cruise package.

But in other news:

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/aer-lingus-has-too-many-resources-amid-covid-pandemic-airline-warns-1.4558123

For “resources”, read “staff”.

billy few mates

neutrino wrote: »

These are possibly in conjunction with cruise companies resuming sailings, and may be something along the lines of flight to Barbados/Cancun - cruise to Miami, flight home, and vice versa. Miami was popular for cruises, and seats were often sold as part of a cruise package.

But in other news:

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/aer-lingus-has-too-many-resources-amid-covid-pandemic-airline-warns-1.4558123

For “resources”, read “staff”.

Who in their right mind would consider going on a cruise package while this pandemic is still around?
Cruise liners became a hotbed for the virus last time around and there were several instances where people were stuck onboard for weeks because the ships were being turned away from ports because of outbreaks onboard.
Even the fantastic buffets many people associate with cruise liners are now effectively banned in any other public setting.
I'd get on an airplane every day of the week before I'd consider a cruise...

basill

Old people who have been jabbed twice. Same target market as before the pandemic. Not that I think the offering is necessarily targeted at the cruise market per se. Google tells me that the best time of year to visit is the "dry season" which is December to April. So nicely timed for an end of summer start when vaccinations are peaking and the temperatures are dropping in Canaries/Algarve etc.

billy few mates

basill wrote: »

Old people who have been jabbed twice. Same target market as before the pandemic. Not that I think the offering is necessarily targeted at the cruise market per se. Google tells me that the best time of year to visit is the "dry season" which is December to April. So nicely timed for an end of summer start when vaccinations are peaking and the temperatures are dropping in Canaries/Algarve etc.

Can't see it myself, the target market have just spent the last twelve months cocooning, I can't see them rushing back to a cruise liner setting just because they've been vaccinated, particularly with so many variants of the virus still around, why risk it?

marno21

billy few mates wrote: »

Can't see it myself, the target market have just spent the last twelve months cocooning, I can't see them rushing back to a cruise liner setting just because they've been vaccinated, particularly with so many variants of the virus still around, why risk it?

Surely being coccooned would make them more likely to go on a cruise after being under glorified house arrest for 12 months?

Are they going to spend their whole lives at home in fear of a potential Covid variant? After vaccination, that's as safe as it's going to get. All the 70+ that I know who have been vaccinated are living life as they did pre-March 2020 (restrictions such as closed pubs aside).

The amount of pent up demand in these industries is unreal. It's along the lines of "I kind of wanted to go on a cruise but now that I know the opportunity to go on one has been taken away from me I'm extra mad to do it now".

Shamrockj

billy few mates wrote: »

Can't see it myself, the target market have just spent the last twelve months cocooning, I can't see them rushing back to a cruise liner setting just because they've been vaccinated, particularly with so many variants of the virus still around, why risk it?

Maybe some people actually want to live their life ? Not everyone wants to sit at home for the rest of their remaining life.

HTCOne

As soon as I can get off this rock without being thrown in a gulag on my return or have to self quarantine for a fortnight I am outta here. Everyone I speak to is in the same boat, especially healthcare staff. Once vaccinated there is nothing more that can be done, this virus is likely endemic now and the vulnerable will need a top up vaccine every year or so to protect against mutations. So be it. You can’t live in fear. I’m vety tempted to start booking European breaks from Q3 onwards now, Rome and the Canaries top of my list. Hang in there Shamrock I have a fortune to spend with you as soon as I’m allowed! And you can sell me a few wine bottles on the journey, I won’t complain.

And cruises? Before COVID those floating retirement homes were my idea of hell. After the last year I’d vote DUP if it got me on one.

billy few mates

marno21 wrote: »

Surely being coccooned would make them more likely to go on a cruise after being under glorified house arrest for 12 months?

Are they going to spend their whole lives at home in fear of a potential Covid variant? After vaccination, that's as safe as it's going to get. All the 70+ that I know who have been vaccinated are living life as they did pre-March 2020 (restrictions such as closed pubs aside).

The amount of pent up demand in these industries is unreal. It's along the lines of "I kind of wanted to go on a cruise but now that I know the opportunity to go on one has been taken away from me I'm extra mad to do it now".

Who said anything about them spending "their whole lives at home" living in fear...? I'm sure like most of us they'll be itching to get away, I just don't think they'll be attracted to the idea of spending two or three weeks cooped up on a boat after spending the last twelve months cooped up at home. The vaccination doesn't make you bullet proof, people are still going to avoid high risk situations and as we saw last time the virus spread like wildfire on cruise ships with some people being stuck for weeks on one.

bombs away

billy few mates wrote: »

Who said anything about them spending "their whole lives at home" living in fear...? I'm sure like most of us they'll be itching to get away, I just don't think they'll be attracted to the idea of spending two or three weeks cooped up on a boat after spending the last twelve months cooped up at home. The vaccination doesn't make you bullet proof, people are still going to avoid high risk situations and as we saw last time the virus spread like wildfire on cruise ships with some people being stuck for weeks on one.

Very difficult for a virus to spread like wildfire though when people are fully vaccinated, entirely different set of
circumstances and you’re not comparing like for like. Not saying I disagree with you as regards why older people would want to go on a cruise as I can’t think of a worse holiday than that but it certainly won’t be for the reasons you’re mentioning.

WishUWereHere

HTCOne wrote: »

As soon as I can get off this rock without being thrown in a gulag on my return or have to self quarantine for a fortnight I am outta here. Everyone I speak to is in the same boat, especially healthcare staff. Once vaccinated there is nothing more that can be done, this virus is likely endemic now and the vulnerable will need a top up vaccine every year or so to protect against mutations. So be it. You can’t live in fear. I’m vety tempted to start booking European breaks from Q3 onwards now, Rome and the Canaries top of my list. Hang in there Shamrock I have a fortune to spend with you as soon as I’m allowed! And you can sell me a few wine bottles on the journey, I won’t complain.

And cruises? Before COVID those floating retirement homes were my idea of hell. After the last year I’d vote DUP if it got me on one.

EXCELLENT post HTCOne

goingnowhere

Same here, once I'm fully vaccinated, the next day I expect to in seat 2C on a A320 to somewhere, anywhere (even a DUB to DUB flight would do)

There is a huge pent up demand. I'd expect mayhem for the school midterm break as everyone tries to get away.

Van.Bosch

goingnowhere wrote: »

Same here, once I'm fully vaccinated, the next day I expect to in seat 2C on a A320 to somewhere, anywhere (even a DUB to DUB flight would do)

There is a huge pent up demand. I'd expect mayhem for the school midterm break as everyone tries to get away.

Yeah - the mid term will be crazy, A330’s to CDG for euro Disney and to anywhere else really

BonnieSituation

goingnowhere wrote: »

Same here, once I'm fully vaccinated, the next day I expect to in seat 2C on a A320 to somewhere, anywhere (even a DUB to DUB flight would do)

There is a huge pent up demand. I'd expect mayhem for the school midterm break as everyone tries to get away.

Same as that. I'm due my second jab at the beginning of June, So I'm looking at end of June for full vaccinated status and I am out of here!

Noxegon

Like others here, I'll be on a plane the moment I'm vaccinated.

I have almost seven weeks of annual leave that I have to take before December 31.

Van.Bosch

Noxegon wrote: »

Like others here, I'll be on a plane the moment I'm vaccinated.

I have almost seven weeks of annual leave that I have to take before December 31.

I’m booking a trip for October, should be all good by then.

goingnowhere

As of today you can do DUB-KIR or DUB-CFN without any hassle with the gardai...

I believe the garda stakeout at the airport has ended and the fines for travelling have elapsed, the army are on hand for arrivals from the MHQ list.

Jamie2k9

The short haul A330 (daily AGP, Sat x2 FAO) have been pushed out to July 21st this morning.