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The R(0) number

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    #62
    Miike
    Registered Users Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭Miike


    Out of interest and for more clarity. When you say the virus weakens, what exactly do you mean?


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    #63
    JP Liz V1
    Registered Users Posts: 86,252 ✭✭✭✭JP Liz V1


    https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1281294344268460034
    https://forumofgames.com/




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    #64
    horse7
    Registered Users Posts: 3,731 ✭✭✭horse7


    So the R numbers are mystical and not available on the internet, only available to a few chosen ones.


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    #65
    prosaic
    Registered Users Posts: 173 ✭✭prosaic


    The R number is hard to give accurately when numbers are low. It's more about looking at individual groups at these low numbers. If we had daily numbers of 100 or more then you'd talk about R numbers.


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    #66
    nw1dqsv7amx026
    Closed Accounts Posts: 336 ✭✭nw1dqsv7amx026


    Apologies if this was posted before. I believe they use a model described here.

    https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/dc5711-irish-epidemiology-modelling-advisory-group-to-nphet-technical-notes/

    See:-
    "Estimation of the effective reproduction number
    "
    Its a few weeks since I read the paper but from recollection it's a model which is based on what stage of lock down you are in and the number of deaths from covid.
    So, it is based on a few unknowns, ie the case fatality rate and the effectiveness of lock down.
    So, I'm sure it is well off the true Ro.
    But as other countries are using the same model its a fair way to compare the progression of the virus on each country.


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    #67
    Bit cynical
    Registered Users Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭Bit cynical


    A fairly crude method described here is the RKI method:

    R0 = [total new cases in last 4 days] / [total new cases in 4 days prior to that]

    The figure of 4 days may need to change according to what is known about the disease but the formula should give 1 if cases are steady. Obviously with low numbers there will be a high degree of uncertainty.


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    #68
    nw1dqsv7amx026
    Closed Accounts Posts: 336 ✭✭nw1dqsv7amx026


    Bit cynical wrote: »
    A fairly crude method described here is the RKI method:

    R0 = [total new cases in last 4 days] / [total new cases in 4 days prior to that]

    The figure of 4 days may need to change according to what is known about the disease but the formula should give 1 if cases are steady. Obviously with low numbers there will be a high degree of uncertainty.

    So don't test and it will look good.


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    #69
    Bit cynical
    Registered Users Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭Bit cynical


    Rose Loud Paprika wrote: »
    So don't test and it will look good.
    Problem is then if you reintroduce testing and find one case you get an R0 of infinity.


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