Public service pay cut?

fliball123

BonnieSituation wrote: »

That's how sovereign debt works.

so thats your argument just keep borrowing nothing to see here ..Sure the debt will just disappear and there are no need to worry.

Sorry to sound rude but you dont know your a$$ from your elbow. We are currently going under the radar due to covid, when that is gone your going to see an absolute sh1tstorm which will be much worse than 08.

Ask yourself the following questions and listen to the answers.

What happened back in the crash of 08??? We had to make hard decisions like cutting ps pay.

Why did we have to make those hard decisions?? Because we had too high a debt and too big a deficit and were spending like lunatics and based a good % of our spending on recurring income from stamp duty a revenue stream that was open to the market and the government could not control and it went south with the property crash.

Are we spending more now than 08?? Yes we are

Are we basing our spending again on a revenue stream that could be turned off or reduced quickly?? Yes we are - Corporation tax

Is our corporation tax under threat?? Yes it is most financial experts including our own government seem to think we may lose between 2 billion to 6 billion of it - Just ask Paschal

Are we financially worse off than 08 ??? Yes we are.

But you keep your head in the sand and I will point you back to this post when the troika are back in town as this is where we will be if we continue down the path we are on and the government have no way out of it with personal taxation.

BonnieSituation

fliball123 wrote: »

so thats your argument just keep borrowing nothing to see here ..Sure the debt will just disappear and there are no need to worry.

Sorry to sound rude but you dont know your a$$ from your elbow. We are currently going under the radar due to covid, when that is gone your going to see an absolute sh1tstorm which will be much worse than 08.

Ask yourself the following questoins and listen to the answers.

What happened back in the crash of 08??? We had to make hard decisions like cutting ps pay.

Why did we have to make those hard decisions?? Because we had too high a debt and too big a deficit and were spending like lunatics and based our spending on recurring income from stamp duty a revenue stream that open to the market and the government could not control and it went south with the property crash.

Are we spending more now than 08?? Yes we are

Are we basing our spending again on a revenue stream that could be turned off or reduced quikcly?? Yes we are - Corporation tax

Is our corporation tax under threat?? Yes it is most financial experts including our own government seem to think we may lose between billion to 6 billion of it - Just ask Paschal

Are we financially worse off than 08 ??? Yes we are.

But you keep your head in the sand and I will point you back to this post when the troika are back in town as this is where we will be if we continue down the path we are on and the government have no way out of it with personal taxation.

I'm borrowing nothing. Unlike this State.

You're scarily into it. Like, a bit too much into it.

JimmyVik

JimmyVik wrote: »

I doubt you are an expert in public finances yourself.

I wouldn't have thought so myself, but in comparison to some of views here, including yours - completely blind and ignorant of the scale of the challenge, I'm beginning to wonder maybe I'm more of an expert than I give myself credit for.

BonnieSituation

salonfire wrote: »

I wouldn't have thought so myself, but in comparison to some of views here, including yours - completely blind and ignorant of the scale of the challenge, I'm beginning to wonder maybe I'm more of an expert than I give myself credit for.

Yes, everyone else hasn't a clue, except for you and fliball.

You're going on about this challenge like you have to personally get out there and roll up your sleeves. It's bizarre tbh.

BonnieSituation

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Yes, everyone else hasn't a clue, except for you and fliball.

You're going on about this challenge like you have to personally get out there and roll up your sleeves. It's bizarre tbh.

You're forgetting the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council as well. Maybe you can contact them and give them the heads up they're bizzare. I'm sure they'd take your advice and revert their findings.

THE IRISH FISCAL Advisory Council has warned that the Government has committed to permanent increases in public spending without a plan on how to fund them. ..

fliball123

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I'm borrowing nothing. Unlike this State.

You're scarily into it. Like, a bit too much into it.

Well people should be alive to the problems that we face and while you are right you have not borrowed anything, you, your kids and grand kids will be asked to pay it back by tax increases if cutting is off the table. Attack the post and stop with the we are all bizarre.

fliball123

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Yes, everyone else hasn't a clue, except for you and fliball.

You're going on about this challenge like you have to personally get out there and roll up your sleeves. It's bizarre tbh.

Whats bizarre is the thought that we can just keep borrowing.

BonnieSituation

fliball123 wrote: »

Whats bizarre is the thought that we can just keep borrowing.

We can. Literally forever.

Servicing the debt is all we need to worry about.

Which we can do. So all's well.

fliball123

BonnieSituation wrote: »

We can. Literally forever.

Servicing the debt is all we need to worry about.

Which we can do. So all's well.

Ah so you are either suffering from memory loss or you are under 10 years of age as if you cant remember what happened after the last crash when we were put into a austerity program by the troika. Just to summarize for you we were told we were not going to get any more money until we got our deficit down and this was coming from the ECB who is the lender of last resort if they wont give you money your screwed. So you cannot borrow for ever no matter if your a person or a country

BonnieSituation

BonnieSituation wrote: »

We can. Literally forever.

So why did we have to turn to the Troika in order to borrow ten years ago and give away our financial sovereignty at the same time?

BonnieSituation

fliball123 wrote: »

Ah so you are either suffering from memory loss or you are under 10 years of age as if you cant remember what happened after the last crash when we were put into a austerity program by the troika. Just to summarize for you we were told we were not going to get any more money until we got our deficit down and this was coming from the ECB who is the lender of last resort if they wont give you money your screwed. So you cannot borrow for ever no matter if your a person or a country

Ooooh. Imagine if I was a 10 yo. You'd think you'd be more impressed that I can keep up with you.
Or embarrassed.

It's amazing how you criticised me and then in the same paragraph managed to somehow not figure out how correct I was. Fascinating.

BonnieSituation

salonfire wrote: »

So why did we have to turn to the Troika in order to borrow ten years ago and give away our financial sovereignty at the same time?

No idea. Tell me.

fliball123

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Ooooh. Imagine if I was a 10 yo. You'd think you'd be more impressed that I can keep up with you.
Or embarrassed.

It's amazing how you criticised me and then in the same paragraph managed to somehow not figure out how correct I was. Fascinating.

How are you correct when recent history has showed us that we cant borrow for ever. Your making yourself out to be either really silly or just plaine ignorant of the facts.

BonnieSituation

But, the fact is that we can borrow forever. And we will borrow forever.

Servicing the debt is the key here.

This has been repeated to you ad nauseum and you're still unable to grasp it.

fliball123

BonnieSituation wrote: »

But, the fact is that we can borrow forever. And we will borrow forever.

Servicing the debt is the key here.

This has been repeated to you ad nauseum and you're still unable to grasp it.

So were we not sanctioned about our borrowing after the last crash yes or no?
Are we borrowing at near 0% currently due to corona yes or no?
Do you think the affordability of our debt will be taken into account going forward when the debt gets rolled over and put on a higher interest rate yes or no?

Just so your sure about things we were told to take a bailout back after the last crash and were warned that our lending would be cut completely from the lender of last resort if we didnt enter the austerity program as the markets stopped lending to us. Now fast forward in 2021 we are much further in debt and our deficit is back to the levels of 2008.

https://www.thejournal.ie/trichet-letter-sent-to-lenihan-released-1764945-Nov2014/


So I do agree with you servicing the debt is key . So lets look at the future threats to this

A lot of private sector companies will not make it out of the corona lockdown. Some have already gone to the wall - Debenhams, Carphone warehouse, etc. Meaning people will now be on the dole and not paying tax. So more of a deficit.

Corporation tax will be down anywhere from 2 - 6 billion in the near future. More of a deficit

We will need more money for the HSE - More debt

We will need money to solve the current housing issue - more debt

We have a new Working from home paradym that has come to fruition thoughout lockdown meaning people don't have to be physically there to do their job. So you tell me do you not think a lot of people will prefer to be working in the sunshine and paying a hell of lot less on tax as well as what we spend in our day to day as apposed to Ireland? - more deficit

Interest rates currently at near 0% how long will this continue for. One thing is for sure interest rates cannot go much lower - more debt

So do you really think we can continue lending at this rate, Were you Brian Lendahand's speech writer when he was lying about the troika being in Ireland and an hour later he was meeting with them.

The sad part is the public sector will not be able to blame any bank or banker this time for the situation we are in.

Geuze

BonnieSituation wrote: »

We can. Literally forever.

Servicing the debt is all we need to worry about.

Which we can do. So all's well.

If the deficit is small, and if interest rates stay low, then yes, we could run continual small deficits.

By small annual fiscal deficits, I mean 0.5% - 1% of GDP.

salonfire

salonfire wrote: »

So why did we have to turn to the Troika in order to borrow ten years ago and give away our financial sovereignty at the same time?

Are you honestly trying to back up your claim that it isn't always possible to borrow money.........by using the example of us borrowing from the Troika?

fliball123

Deleted User wrote: »

Are you honestly trying to back up your claim that it isn't always possible to borrow money.........by using the example of us borrowing from the Troika?

Think of what the government had to agree to in order to get the bailout. We were told to cut ps pay and pensions and welfare as well as more taxation or we would not get the money needed to keep the lights on.

Fast forward 2021
We are paying more for our public sector
We are paying more for our welfare
We are paying a lot more in personal taxation
We are more in debt
We are back up to the same deficit

Now you tell me do you think we will be able to continue in down this path of borrowing without something giving..

Just today the ERSI are asking for more tax.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/higher-rates-of-income-tax-and-vat-needed-for-future-state-spending-esri-1130421.html

Your going to see an absolute tsunami of FF/FG supporters run for the hills if more tax is hoisted on an already squeezed middle class. Not to mention if it does come in there will be a lot of people who can work remotely leaving for sunnier pastures where they will pay less tax and less on a day to day basis to live.

fliball123

and we are off. I knew it would take something like a threat to our income tax to get people more vocal on what we pay and the ERSI have just done so. You can assume any other attempts to bleed more blood from the stone that is the taxpayer will have the current high level we pay for public sector pay and pensions in the firing line. As people have the cop on to know that an increase in ps pay mean an increase in taxation for them

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058187718

AndrewJRenko

fliball123 wrote: »

Your going to see an absolute tsunami of FF/FG supporters run for the hills if more tax is hoisted on an already squeezed middle class.

Where are they going to run to, politically speaking?

BonnieSituation

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Where are they going to run to, politically speaking?

To the Troika I guess

fliball123

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Where are they going to run to, politically speaking?

They sure as hell wont vote them again, they made lots of noise about bringing down the personal taxation rates people pay in the country and IMO this got FG in particular voted in power for a lot of years based on this promise and they have barely made a dent in it. If they start with more taxes there is no chance of them being voted in during the next G.E

AndrewJRenko

fliball123 wrote: »

They sure as hell wont vote them again, they made lots of noise about bringing down the personal taxation rates people pay in the country and IMO this got FG in particular voted in power for a lot of years based on this promise and they have barely made a dent in it. If they start with more taxes there is no chance of them being voted in during the next G.E

You didn't answer my question. If they're not going to vote for FF or FG, who ARE they going to vote for, in your opinion?

fliball123

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

You didn't answer my question. If they're not going to vote for FF or FG, who ARE they going to vote for, in your opinion?

God knows who, put it this way I voted FG for the last 2 elections on the promise of the people who are getting in the morning to go out working would be getting more money in their back pocket through cuts in tax. If this goes off the table and I get taxed more I sure as hell wont be voting them in again so I cant speak for the rest of the people who voted for them last time and personally I don't know who I will vote for. I probably wont bother as politicians can not be held to their word.

Who would you be voting for?

AndrewJRenko

fliball123 wrote: »

God knows who, put it this way I voted FG for the last 2 elections on the promise of the people who are getting in the morning to go out working would be getting more money in their back pocket through cuts in tax. If this goes off the table and I get taxed more I sure as hell wont be voting them in again so I cant speak for the rest of the people who voted for them last time and personally I don't know who I will vote for. I probably wont bother as politicians can not be held to their word.

Who would you be voting for?

That's the point though, there's really nowhere to go politically if FG aren't far enough on the economic right for you. The reality of politics here is that we'll have coalition governments for ever, which involves significant degrees of compromise on policy.

If you decide not to vote for FG next time round, the most likely outcome is that government will move even further to the left thanks to the remaining voters like me.

Be careful what you wish for.

fliball123

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

That's the point though, there's really nowhere to go politically if FG aren't far enough on the economic right for you. The reality of politics here is that we'll have coalition governments for ever, which involves significant degrees of compromise on policy.

If you decide not to vote for FG next time round, the most likely outcome is that government will move even further to the left thanks to the remaining voters like me.

Be careful what you wish for.

There is no one to the right I agree. But the current left ideals of freebies for all along with the right mantra that your too big an entity to pay tax that are being imposed on the country cannot continue we cant afford them. Being honest I will be looking at moving on in the next 3/4 years if things continue down the path of the income tax payer paying more tax its just not right that people working are expected to continue over paying for services that in a lot of cases are not fit for purpose or that they have to pay again out of after tax monies to use, while others get them free. This country actually punishes people who work hard.

Ireland has taken the worst features of both capitalism and communism and hoisted it upon the middle to higher income earner. I reckon there will be a massive brain drain in the next 10 years. Those who are under 30 may never be able to afford their own house and you cant blame them for running, throw in the pensions timebomb and with less people working to pay for an aging population and those who have their own house and who are working in an industry where their work load can be done remotely will be leaving as well. In their place we will have an swath of refugees coming in looking at our Champaign and caviar welfare system, houses for all. As a nation we are sleepwalking over a cliff here with some of the policies just being outright stupid.

AndrewJRenko

fliball123 wrote: »

There is no one to the right I agree. But the current left ideals of freebies for all along with the right mantra that your too big an entity to pay tax that are being imposed on the country cannot continue we cant afford them. Being honest I will be looking at moving on in the next 3/4 years if things continue down the path of the income tax payer paying more tax its just not right that people working are expected to continue over paying for services that in a lot of cases are not fit for purpose or that they have to pay again out of after tax monies to use, while others get them free. This country actually punishes people who work hard.

Ireland has taken the worst features of both capitalism and communism and hoisted it upon the middle to higher income earner. I reckon there will be a massive brain drain in the next 10 years. Those who are under 30 may never be able to afford their own house and you cant blame them for running, throw in the pensions timebomb and with less people working to pay for an aging population and those who have their own house and who are working in an industry where their work load can be done remotely will be leaving as well. In their place we will have an swath of refugees coming in looking at our Champaign and caviar welfare system, houses for all. As a nation we are sleepwalking over a cliff here with some of the policies just being outright stupid.

The problem for your good self seems to be that you're an outlier - that the number of people who agree with your views is so small that there's not even a crank party like Renua or Aontu that will bang your drum for you.

Most people take a different view, and most of those people are just as smart as you and just as competent at economics as you.

Mongfinder General

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

That's the point though, there's really nowhere to go politically if FG aren't far enough on the economic right for you. The reality of politics here is that we'll have coalition governments for ever, which involves significant degrees of compromise on policy.

If you decide not to vote for FG next time round, the most likely outcome is that government will move even further to the left thanks to the remaining voters like me.

Be careful what you wish for.

Spot on. The opposition don't care who pays as long as it's not them and their supporters are paying. The net contributors in Ireland are sick of paying for everything and everybody else. The only flash of anger that I have seen manifest in this respect was at the last presidential election when Peter Casey dared question a specific project and its merit. He took 25% of the vote just from that

fliball123

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

The problem for your good self seems to be that you're an outlier - that the number of people who agree with your views is so small that there's not even a crank party like Renua or Aontu that will bang your drum for you.

Most people take a different view, and most of those people are just as smart as you and just as competent at economics as you.

Well lets see how this plays out as we cannot continue to borrow on the never never as some here may suggest its just not going to be allowed (maybe if it was left to the politicians it would happen) and proof of that is back after the crash of 08 we were forced to make cuts and increase taxes. We are already in a worse position financially than 08 and all of this is being shielded by Corona. Once Corona is gone and the dust settles if the economy does not come out of the traps like a greyhound the jig is up.

What happens then?? Sinn Fein will probably be getting voted in and income tax will have to rise as I cant see how they can pay for things like pay rises to the ps, sort out the housing issue and pay more for things like the HSE (which is an annual increase that is now just expected at this stage). You will see a good lot of people who will be of a similar view to myself that we pay (overpay) more than enough for public services and welfare and that there is a lot of waste going on within both areas of spend. I put up the thread on boards created within minutes of the ERSI starting with "we need to tax more for our public services." It seems there a lot of people who also think we are paying enough in income tax at the middle and higher income. We pay very little at the lower end but god love any political party who mentions this as they would be slaughtered. So who ever gets into government they are going to be immediately impeded by our debt and deficit no matter who it is and hard decisions will have to be made again. The current political dynamic wont change anything as they know any decision to change will be political suicide better to keep the good ship Ireland inc floating till they are voted out in the next G.E and stand in opposition making with the how unjust the new powers that be are making the hard decisions. Its such a crock of sh1t our political system.

You also need to look at high likelihood our corporation tax will be getting cut by 2 - 6 billion annually. It will be a reminder of what happened with stamp duty back with the last crash. As well as more young people leaving as they cant get on the property ladder which begs the question who will pay the rising pensions bill? Not to mention those who have jobs that are mobile will also be getting out of dodge why pay more for something that is not fit for purpose, for someone else to use for free and that you will have to pay for if you have to use it anyway.

The thing about the politics in this country is this FG are not the only spoofers, Sinn Fein the great white hope of the welfare class are going to have to make hard decisions if they get in. The public sector also got cut by their beloved FF and Labour so its not a left/right or center thing. Its a politician thing and as long as these spoofers are left unchecked and unpunished for basically lying to get into power nothing in the country will change.

As for a warning to you and everyone else who thinks Ireland can be suckled dry by the rich, poor and vested interests, you only need look to the countries to your left and right and at how soon a protest vote can turn into something no one could of predicted. Step forward Mr Johnston and Mr Trump. Nothing like hitting people in the pocket for more when they will be getting less in return to start such a situation.

Hotblack Desiato

fliball123 wrote: »

God knows who, put it this way I voted FG for the last 2 elections on the promise of the people who are getting in the morning to go out working would be getting more money in their back pocket through cuts in tax.

Do public servants not get up in the morning? Do they not pay tax?

ffs