Public service pay cut?

Hotblack Desiato

salonfire wrote: »

My understanding is that this approach is changing with the new agreement where a pot is set aside for targeted benefit improvements for certain sectors; and without knock on claims from unions.

That only amounts to another 1% per sector IIRC, the amount of that increase is not up for negotiation, just who will get it e.g. target the lower paid

It'll probably end up being divided out equally to not píss anyone off, such as it is.

Not remotely the same thing as a no holds barred, we're on strike next week if we don't get X% negotiation. It's been 34 years since the public sector was not locked into one pay deal or another so does anybody on either side these days actually know how to negotiate in that scenario?

Hotblack Desiato

fliball123 wrote: »

Imagine trying to run a household by the banana republic financing going on with this country.

Imagine trying to run a household when your spouse insists you can't borrow to buy a car, carry out essential repairs to your home, or even buy a home in the first place.

Pogue eile wrote: »

And sorry I have no idea what 'corpo' is?? Is that your council bin charges or something?

Maybe something to do with 'OCED' ?

fliball123

Geuze wrote: »

https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/43a6dd-stability-programme-update-2020/

2020 GG deficit of -7.4% GDP / -13.3% of GNI*
2020 GG balance = -23bn

2020 Exchequer balance = -15.5bn

2020 end year debt = 125% of GNI*



Please note that the average costs of debt has been falling, so new cheaper debt has been replacing older, higher interest debt.

The yield has been below 1% since 2016.

From the NTMA:

https://www.ntma.ie/uploads/banners/NTMA-Investor-Presentation-April-2021.pdf

NTMA issued €99.5bn MLT debt since 2015; 13.1 yr. weighted maturity; avg. rate 0.76%



Yes, you are correct, Govts have been postponing making difficult decisions. Ageing is going to put pressure on the public finances.

I accept that a pay pause, rather than 1% + 1% in 2021 and 2022 makes more sense.

However, given the:

• lack of appetite for spending restraint
• very low interest environment
• ECB programmes like PEPP helping Govts to borrow
• nurses/doctors doing COVID work, etc.

then politically / realistically, it is difficult to implement a pay pause.

I already pointed out that interest on the debt had come down by 3billion in the last 5 years due to the low interest rates. Yet it would be silly to think interest rates are going to stay down low (historical low) for the long term at some point they will rise and at some point in the future our debt will be rolled over onto these higher rates that is when the pain will really kick in.

So another 3 billion of pay rises over a 3 year period should just go ahead..Its barmy if it has to all be taken away in year 4/5 or 6 with a further cut on top and if the train keeps going the way it is that's where we are headed. At some stage the ECB will call a halt to lending to us when they look at our rate of public sector pay and pensions and how much tax we are taking in and still not bridging a deficit they will ask us to get our house in order. They did it after the 08 crash and we are currently in a worse position financially than then. The prudent thing would be to stop pay rises/increments and any other excess spend we can cut until Covid is over and if the economy booms after this as there is a very high level of savings out there in Irish bank accounts then great work away with the pay rises for those who deserve them in the ps.

Fair play to you fliball I admire your dedication to this. Not many other economists would give their time and expertise as freely.

AndrewJRenko

fliball123 wrote: »

Have you anything to back that up

In depth personal experience in the public sector through that period.

Have you anything to contradict it?

fliball123

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

In depth personal experience in the public sector through that period.

Have you anything to contradict it?

The rate at which we pay public sector has gone up is a good indicator and I have many friends in the PS who would also state that its literally impossible to not get your increment you need to be really taking the p1ss.

AndrewJRenko

fliball123 wrote: »

All areas and not cut but stalled same goes with Ps payrises and increments I would stall it all till after covid goes and see what way the finances are. The government have 2 things that may help - inflation which is a long shot and will brings its own problems and the economy may go off like a house on fire when corona goes (personally I hope this happens) if it happens and we are back at a deficit of zero then by all means people who have proven to have done a good job in the ps should be rewarded but when the cashflow for these payrsies are at risk I think its a stupid decision to go ahead with them in the current climate. I have outlined the numerous threats that will be coming into force with regards to our tax take.

With all other spending cut by a point or two, you won't need to come after public servants again, given that I'm still waiting to get back the cuts from last time round.

Treppen

fliball123 wrote: »

The rate at which we pay public sector has gone up is a good indicator and I have many friends in the PS who would also state that its literally impossible to not get your increment you need to be really taking the p1ss.

Starting at a low base though. Many people "taking the pi55" in the private sector with similar years degree qualification start out on much higher, and can hop from job to job.

e.g. a friend went from 35k to 70k (with benefits on top) in 5 years in bio-pharma.

So relatively speaking 1 to 2 percent increment after the same 5 years isn't that massive. Plus the friend above can easily move to AD on 100k+ after a good few years.

Plus the number of new hires he said that haven't a clue hopping to better money after a year.

fliball123

Treppen wrote: »

Starting at a low base though. Many people "taking the pi55" in the private sector with similar years degree qualification start out on much higher, and can hop from job to job.

e.g. a friend went from 35k to 70k (with benefits on top) in 5 years in bio-pharma.

So relatively speaking 1 to 2 percent increment after the same 5 years isn't that massive. Plus the friend above can easily move to AD on 100k+ after a good few years.

Plus the number of new hires he said that haven't a clue hopping to better money after a year.

Its a well known fact that public service employees are paid higher then the private sector employees in this country. There are not many other countries in the world where this is the case. Might enlighten a few PS heads thinking they are not paid enough

https://isme.ie/isme-gives-a-qualified-welcome-to-the-government-decision-to-increase-public-sector-pay/

fliball123

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

With all other spending cut by a point or two, you won't need to come after public servants again, given that I'm still waiting to get back the cuts from last time round.

23 Billion a year extra annually is what we will be borrowing and what we will need soon enough if not more what do we do just cut all welfare? Go on we have a 17Billion (as of end of 2020) deficit hole on top of 240Billion debt give me your way out please? I think its time to ask public servants like yourself how we do this or is it a cut everyone else but me approach??

AndrewJRenko

fliball123 wrote: »

23 Billion a year extra annually is what we will be borrowing and what we will need soon enough if not more what do we do just cut all welfare? Go on we have a 17Billion (as of end of 2020) deficit hole on top of 240Billion debt give me your way out please? I think its time to ask public servants like yourself how we do this or is it a cut everyone else but me approach??

Yes, I'm still suffering the effects of the cut from last time round, so as you said yourself, cut all spending and plan to restore public servants to their contractual salary levels.

AndrewJRenko

fliball123 wrote: »

Its a well known fact that public service employees are paid higher then the private sector employees in this country. There are not many other countries in the world where this is the case. Might enlighten a few PS heads thinking they are not paid enough

https://isme.ie/isme-gives-a-qualified-welcome-to-the-government-decision-to-increase-public-sector-pay/

Ah, the Liveline caller favourite of the "known fact Joe". Is also known fact that comparing salaries without looking at the nature of the roles is meaningless.

You might as well claim that banks pay higher than pubs, so bankers should cut their salaries.

am_zarathustra

All teachers, doctors and nurses have one if not multiple degrees. Comparing like with like is important. I'm always confused by the argument we shouldn't pay our civil and public servants well. The issues with health have nothing to do with nurses pay and our education system is incredibly good value given we spend less that the OECD average and consistently performs well above the average in both attainment and retention.

Pogue eile

If fliball123 just agreed to put a euro in a jar every time he cries about the Public Service we would have that national deficit wiped out by Christmas, simples!

fliball123

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Ah, the Liveline caller favourite of the "known fact Joe". Is also known fact that comparing salaries without looking at the nature of the roles is meaningless.

You might as well claim that banks pay higher than pubs, so bankers should cut their salaries.

Did you read it as its a country comparison as in comparing the pay gap between different countries and an example of how the UK private sector is paid 0.3% more than their public sector counter parts while Ireland the Public sector are paid 33% more than their private sector counterparts. So read what the article was about instead of bluffing that you actually read it

So its a like for like comparison as the same PS jobs exist in the UK as they do in Ireland same goes with the private sector.

fliball123

fliball123 wrote: »

23 Billion a year extra annually is what we will be borrowing and what we will need soon enough if not more what do we do just cut all welfare? Go on we have a 17Billion (as of end of 2020) deficit hole on top of 240Billion debt give me your way out please? I think its time to ask public servants like yourself how we do this or is it a cut everyone else but me approach??

Unlike yourself fliball we aren’t economists we do not know how to deal with the debt or deficit. Many of your fellow economists out there don’t have the answers either. Austerity is one option but doesn’t seem to be the panacea either.

fliball123

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Yes, I'm still suffering the effects of the cut from last time round, so as you said yourself, cut all spending and plan to restore public servants to their contractual salary levels.

Yeah so everyone but you should take the pain you just get your pay rises on top of increments on top of pensions. Would love to live in your reality. Its the likes of you who pulled the ladder up for new entrants into the PS back in the day to preserve your own pay and conditions, you must be one of the "once I am alright jack" brigade.

Already since the start of the year Ulster bank are going so are KBC, AIB and BOI shutting down numerous branches. Carphone wearhouse just announced they will be closing all of their stores.

3000 business since last march (2020) gone to the wall

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/more-than-3-000-businesses-gone-bust-since-march-d%C3%A1il-told-1.4407811?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fnews%2Fireland%2Firish-news%2Fmore-than-3-000-businesses-gone-bust-since-march-d%25C3%25A1il-told-1.4407811

If you think we can just cut all spend bar the ps pay and pensions when the sh1t hits the fan your deluded and judging by what I have just outlined above the sh1t has just left the anal cavity.

fliball123

Deleted User wrote: »

Unlike yourself fliball we aren’t economists we do not know how to deal with the debt or deficit. Many of your fellow economists out there don’t have the answers either. Austerity is one option but doesn’t seem to be the panacea either.

I am not even saying cut ps pay I am saying all unnecessary spend should be stalled until we know what we are dealing with. That includes increments and payrises for PS. So ask yourself while 3000 Companies have just gone to the wall in the last 12 months and we are 240Billion in debt and have a 17Billion deficit do you think in the face of those stunning stats that show our economy is on the floor we should be giving pay rises to the public sector?? It doesn't take an economist to understand that pay rises at the very least should be shelved.

Bobby2004

This is a genuine question from someone only recently working in the public sector. I've looked through this thread on and off recently and all I see mentioned is cut PS wages, the 240 billion of debt we have etc.

I don't want a snappy sarcastic answer by the way just a view point.

How much do you cut PS wages? And are those saying that there needs to be cuts. Is that it! Never give an increase again and be on the same wage in say 10 years time.

Bobby2004

fliball123 wrote: »

I am not even saying cut ps pay I am saying all unnecessary spend should be stalled until we know what we are dealing with. That includes increments and payrises for PS. So ask yourself while 3000 Companies have just gone to the wall in the last 12 months and we are 240Billion in debt and have a 17Billion deficit do you think in the face of those stunning stats that show our economy is on the floor we should be giving pay rises to the public sector?? It doesn't take an economist to understand that pay rises at the very least should be shelved.

I just seen this post after posting mine. Pretty much answers my question.

fliball123

Bobby2004 wrote: »

This is a genuine question from someone only recently working in the public sector. I've looked through this thread on and off recently and all I see mentioned is cut PS wages, the 240 billion of debt we have etc.

I don't want a snappy sarcastic answer by the way just a view point.

How much do you cut PS wages? And are those saying that there needs to be cuts. Is that it! Never give an increase again and be on the same wage in say 10 years time.

At the moment just dont implement the pay rises and cut any other spend that is not necessary. There are too many unknowns and the figures we know as in the amount of debt, deficit and job losses are already at a rate that beats the 2008 recession. We need to see the back of Corona, see how we fare out with Brexit (as this little doosy is going on in the background and has been concealed by covid) and see how many more companies dont come back after Covid is gone.

Add in the shift to WFH which has increased due to covid means a lot of people can work for Irish companies or MNCs who have a base in Ireland can now work outside of Ireland meaning a lot of tax take will be gone from this country and the progression of Online shopping is going to further decimate local custom/businesses where people used to walk/drive to shops its all done at the click of a mouse.

Throw in Biden/OCED attacking our corporation tax which auld Pascal has already conceeded that something will have to be done, will cost about us another 6 billion a year now this wont happen in the short term this will be brought in over a period of time but who knows how it will pan out or how quickly it will be implemented

fliball123

fliball123 wrote: »

I have many friends in the PS

Ah yeah you do id say

fliball123

Deleted User wrote: »

Ah yeah you do id say

great post well done

Dav010

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Ah yeah you do id say

Considering the numbers of PS’s, it’s probably hard not to, they tend to make themselves known.

fliball123

am_zarathustra wrote: »

All teachers, doctors and nurses have one if not multiple degrees. Comparing like with like is important. I'm always confused by the argument we shouldn't pay our civil and public servants well. The issues with health have nothing to do with nurses pay and our education system is incredibly good value given we spend less that the OECD average and consistently performs well above the average in both attainment and retention.

This comparision is the pay gap between both sectors via countries and outlines how much better paid our ps is than others. Like I said there are not many countries where the PS are paid a premium above the private sector no matter what comparison.

I wont even mention bench marking 1 or bench marking 2 when it comes to not being able to compare both sectors

https://isme.ie/isme-gives-a-qualified-welcome-to-the-government-decision-to-increase-public-sector-pay/

Pogue eile

Dav010 wrote: »

Considering the numbers of PS’s, it’s probably hard not to, they tend to make themselves known.

Imagine if Rory McIlroy was a public service employee Dave? I'd say you would shi*t yourself :D

tayto lover

fliball123 wrote: »

This comparision is the pay gap between both sectors via countries and outlines how much better paid our ps is than others. Like I said there are not many countries where the PS are paid a premium above the private sector no matter what comparison.

I wont even mention bench marking 1 or bench marking 2 when it comes to not being able to compare both sectors

https://isme.ie/isme-gives-a-qualified-welcome-to-the-government-decision-to-increase-public-sector-pay/

I’m getting great pleasure from reading posts like this.

Hotblack Desiato

fliball123 wrote: »

Its a well known fact that public service employees are paid higher then the private sector employees in this country.

You keep saying this. It's not true. You need to compare comparable roles. The mix of roles, qualifications and skills is very different between the private and public sectors.

Hotblack Desiato

fliball123 wrote: »

Its the likes of you who pulled the ladder up for new entrants into the PS back in the day to preserve your own pay and conditions

That never happened, either. You're a great fella for peddling myths.

Bobby2004

Bobby2004 wrote: »

This is a genuine question from someone only recently working in the public sector.

How much do you cut PS wages? And are those saying that there needs to be cuts. Is that it! Never give an increase again and be on the same wage in say 10 years time.

Nobody on this thread has the power to do anything about PS pay. And that includes our resident ‘economist’.