Golf Lockdown Discussion ** No discussion of breaking Restrictions **

FixdePitchmark

Golfhead65 wrote: »

So 3 in every 100 people in the world have died throughout this!! Don't think do as that would make about 150000 dead in this period in Ireland alone, you can make a play on figures as the government and nphet are doing but the reality is not everyone catches a cold, flu, Pneumonia or this, so as my 83 Yr old father says, "Rather 1 more year of living than having this crap inflicted on us

No 3 % of anyone who got covid in the world in a closed case are now dead.

This is obviously improving now (was about 4%) with vaccine and age profile and treatment.

And . I would warn the open everything up crowd. To look up italy and France. They are back to high figures , high deaths and lockdown. The variants are simply very different.

We probably need to hold the guns fot 2 or 3 more months (imo) till vax are more established. Probably won't hold out as public opinion and fatigue.

But a full opening up now will be very similar or worse than the Christmas outcome.

I know people don't want to hear this . But we probably would be better off holding exactly what we are doing now till June.

Again . Just look at Italian and French data.

About 4 weeks ago footage of italians in restaurants and defying lockdown. . Back in a wave as bad as 2020 now.

PokeHerKing

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

No 3 % of anyone who got covid in the world in a closed case are now dead.

This is obviously improving now (was about 4%) with vaccine and age profile and treatment.

And . I would warn the open everything up crowd. To look up italy and France. They are back to high figures , high deaths and lockdown. The variants are simply very different.

We probably need to hold the guns fot 2 or 3 more months (imo) till vax are more established. Probably won't hold out as public opinion and fatigue.

But a full opening up now will be very similar or worse than the Christmas outcome.

I know people don't want to hear this . But we probably would be better off holding exactly what we are doing now till June.

Again . Just look at Italian and French data.

About 4 weeks ago footage of italians in restaurants and defying lockdown. . Back in a wave as bad as 2020 now.

I read an article recently on sky news that said the average EU 2020 mortality rate was 3.5% higher than 2019. UK was 6% and Spain was 5%. I didn't fact check anything in the article.

ForeRight

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

No 3 % of anyone who got covid in the world in a closed case are now dead.

This is obviously improving now (was about 4%) with vaccine and age profile and treatment.

And . I would warn the open everything up crowd. To look up italy and France. They are back to high figures , high deaths and lockdown. The variants are simply very different.

We probably need to hold the guns fot 2 or 3 more months (imo) till vax are more established. Probably won't hold out as public opinion and fatigue.

But a full opening up now will be very similar or worse than the Christmas outcome.

I know people don't want to hear this . But we probably would be better off holding exactly what we are doing now till June.

Again . Just look at Italian and French data.

About 4 weeks ago footage of italians in restaurants and defying lockdown. . Back in a wave as bad as 2020 now.

Very reasoned and factual unlike some of the bile from the ones who think it’s just a matter of opening everything now.
I’d agree with you for the vast majority here apart from I would 100% be allowing kids to play sports seen as though they are all in school together and let’s be honest playing on the streets together.

I’m hoping golf also gets the green light for an early restriction lift.


I find it funny these lads who say nphet don’t have a clue seen as though the one time government went against their advise the result was the current 4 month full lockdown after the Xmas fiasco.

Then you have a lad on the boards golf forum questioning how this virus grows exponentially who claims to know 10 times more than the professors, scientists and public health experts who make up nphet because he did actuary...
I think I’m going to put his posts down to late Saturday night cocktails.

Strange times.

VirgilVD

ForeRight wrote: »

Very reasoned and factual unlike some of the bile from the ones who think it’s just a matter of opening everything now.
I’d agree with you for the vast majority here apart from I would 100% be allowing kids to play sports seen as though they are all in school together and let’s be honest playing on the streets together.

I’m hoping golf also gets the green light for an early restriction lift.


I find it funny these lads who say nphet don’t have a clue seen as though the one time government went against their advise the result was the current 4 month full lockdown after the Xmas fiasco.

Then you have a lad on the boards golf forum questioning how this virus grows exponentially who claims to know 10 times more than the professors, scientists and public health experts who make up nphet because he did actuary...
I think I’m going to put his posts down to late Saturday night cocktails.

Strange times.

I totally get that COVID grows exponentially once it has the ability to do that, but we can’t say if we open back up now we will be back we’re we were at Christmas as we are in a much better position currently than we were at Xmas in terms of vaccines and also there was roughly 90k of cases in January so these cases are now immune for a minimum of 6 months. Given that our vaccines are in around 500k and another nearly 100k who contracted the virus and now immune for a period of time what would the harm be in loosening restrictions of some sort especially golf. Has there been an in depth review of how many cases were linked to golf the last time it opened?

ForeRight

VirgilVD wrote: »

I totally get that COVID grows exponentially once it has the ability to do that, but we can’t say if we open back up now we will be back we’re we were at Christmas as we are in a much better position currently than we were at Xmas in terms of vaccines and also there was roughly 90k of cases in January so these cases are now immune for a minimum of 6 months. Given that our vaccines are in around 500k and another nearly 100k who contracted the virus and now immune for a period of time what would the harm be in loosening restrictions of some sort especially golf. Has there been an in depth review of how many cases were linked to golf the last time it opened?

I think we are on the same page. I’m hoping for a gradual reopening from Easter while monitoring what happens. I’m not calling for an open the gates policy. That’s just silly stuff.

bustercherry

VirgilVD wrote: »

I totally get that COVID grows exponentially once it has the ability to do that, but we can’t say if we open back up now we will be back we’re we were at Christmas as we are in a much better position currently than we were at Xmas in terms of vaccines and also there was roughly 90k of cases in January so these cases are now immune for a minimum of 6 months. Given that our vaccines are in around 500k and another nearly 100k who contracted the virus and now immune for a period of time what would the harm be in loosening restrictions of some sort especially golf. Has there been an in depth review of how many cases were linked to golf the last time it opened?

By who?

bustercherry

gypsy79 wrote: »

Please state your qualifications to question me?

I have circa 20 years building models as an actuary based on decrements such as this.

I do love these sad misery guts that love spend time been locked up calling for more locking up

Bah hah hah.... read that back today now your sober :pac:

gypsy79

ForeRight wrote: »

If you read this thread you’ll see I’m far from one who wants us locked up.


For someone putting themselves forward as some sort of maths wizard who knows more than the professors on nphet it’s strange that you ask how covid grows exponentially.

If 1 person gets it and lives in a house with 3 others and passes it to them. Then those 3 go to work, pub, college or wherever and said 3 people pass it to 3 more each. Those 3 people then go home to their families and the growth continues.
The initial 1 person is responsible for an exponentially growing number of cases.
But hey.... that’s ok because that first person would prefer to live one more year rather than try reduce all that growth and protect the healthcare system and unnecessary death from non covid problems.

Again I reiterate the time for full lockdown has passed with vaccines now in the older community. A gradual reopening should be happening in April imo.

NPHET is full of doctors. Doctors in my professional view are ABSOLUTELY ****e at modelling and a quick look at their interpretation and how they have cherry picked numbers proves this

NPHET is flawed full stop. If I look for real interpretation of the data I always go the UK. There decision making board is balanced and has correct mix of doctors and data experts

Ironically I actually think lockdown 2 was worst decision in retro spect as it caused the Xmas insanity

gypsy79

bustercherry wrote: »

Bah hah hah.... read that back today now your sober :pac:

I was sober.....whats your issue?

ForeRight

gypsy79 wrote: »

NPHET is full of doctors. Doctors in my professional view are ABSOLUTELY ****e at modelling and a quick look at their interpretation and how they have cherry picked numbers proves this

NPHET is flawed full stop. If I look for real interpretation of the data I always go the UK. There decision making board is balanced and has correct mix of doctors and data experts

Ironically I actually think lockdown 2 was worst decision in retro spect as it caused the Xmas insanity

Yeah why didn’t we follow the UK model... the worst death per capita ratio in the western world who at the beginning thought here immunity was something that was plausible before ultimately enforcing multiple lockdowns just like us.

The one thing they’ve managed well is the vaccine roll out. Up to that point they’ve been an absolute mess.

You’ve failed to follow up on your sniggering about exponential growth with the virus too. Plenty of paracetamol today nursing that hangover.

RGS

gypsy79 wrote: »

Ironically I actually think lockdown 2 was worst decision in retro spect as it caused the Xmas insanity

I agree with your assessment. It just drove the 9 week christmas build up into 3 weeks, that combined with confirmation from government , before we reopened, we were locking down in January.

On the golf front are we optimistic or pessimistic we will be back playing golf the week after Easter.

I was optimistic upto yesterday but now believe we wont open adult golf till mid may.

bustercherry

gypsy79 wrote: »

I was sober.....whats your issue?

I’ve no issue just pointing out that post is pretty embarrassing. It was the internet equivalent of a child saying their Da could beat another child’s Da in a fight.

gypsy79

bustercherry wrote: »

I’ve no issue just pointing out that post is pretty embarrassing. It was the internet equivalent of a child saying their Da could beat another child’s Da in a fight.

No I was asking YOU to stop saying things that are proveable false.....

Ivefoundgod

gypsy79 wrote: »

No I was asking YOU to stop saying things that are proveable false.....

Do you not think its a bit much for you to be claiming to know more about Covid than NPHET and their advisors though? I think that's what people are trying to point out to you.

VirgilVD

bustercherry wrote: »

By who?

Well you’d think the governing body of the sport would do some research to bring to the government to put towards their case to open.

gypsy79

Ivefoundgod wrote: »

Do you not think its a bit much for you to be claiming to know more about Covid than NPHET and their advisors though? I think that's what people are trying to point out to you.

Btw I was calling people out for saying things that are blatantly false and stating things as fact that arent even based on reality

Well YES I would......believe it or not I worked for the consultants that NPHET went to. And the lack of data is shocking! NPHET's data is not very good (shock horror for HSE). Which in turn led to useless reports been drawn up. Consultants will consult (ie bleed government departments dry).

Thankfully that part of my career is over and I dont need to pretend to usless "clients" like NPHET.

ForeRight

gypsy79 wrote: »

Btw I was calling people out for saying things that are blatantly false and stating things as fact that arent even based on reality

Well YES I would......believe it or not I worked for the consultants that NPHET went to. And the lack of data is shocking! NPHET's data is not very good (shock horror for HSE). Which in turn led to useless reports been drawn up. Consultants will consult (ie bleed government departments dry).

Thankfully that part of my career is over and I dont need to pretend to usless "clients" like NPHET.

You really are doubling down fair play

plumber77

If NPHET are incorporating this thread into their data analysis we'll be lucky to play golf at all this year.

Ivefoundgod

gypsy79 wrote: »

Btw I was calling people out for saying things that are blatantly false and stating things as fact that arent even based on reality

Well YES I would......believe it or not I worked for the consultants that NPHET went to. And the lack of data is shocking! NPHET's data is not very good (shock horror for HSE). Which in turn led to useless reports been drawn up. Consultants will consult (ie bleed government departments dry).

Thankfully that part of my career is over and I dont need to pretend to usless "clients" like NPHET.

I mean, what do you even say to this? Are you now saying you have access to all of the data NPHET have as well as more expertise to interpret it? As ForeRight says, fair play to you so. You must be one of the brightest minds in the country, hope you are getting well paid for your expertise but you should consider going public with all your data analysis, it could really blow this whole covid thing wide open.

This thread has really reached a low point. Think I'll leave it there so as Bill might say.

slingerz

700+ cases today, forget golf in April lads it’s not happening

gypsy79

Ivefoundgod wrote: »

I mean, what do you even say to this? Are you now saying you have access to all of the data NPHET have as well as more expertise to interpret it? As ForeRight says, fair play to you so. You must be one of the brightest minds in the country, hope you are getting well paid for your expertise but you should consider going public with all your data analysis, it could really blow this whole covid thing wide open.

This thread has really reached a low point. Think I'll leave it there so as Bill might say.

There is no point in arguing with this. Did you read what I said....they dont have the correct data

Thanks, I do get very well paid in my new role. And was very well paid when I worked for this consultant. Depends on how you define well paid mind you. I personally would like the be paid more

I am pain many multiples of the national average wage with a nice bonus structure

h2005

This thread has taken a very weird direction.

Rikand

slingerz wrote: »

700+ cases today, forget golf in April lads it’s not happening

It'll be back over 1000 when the results of all the Paddys day parties comes back

Bill Ponderosa

Almost 800 cases today, this lockdown really is working.. :rolleyes:

ForeRight

gypsy79 wrote: »

There is no point in arguing with this. Did you read what I said....they dont have the correct data

Thanks, I do get very well paid in my new role. And was very well paid when I worked for this consultant. Depends on how you define well paid mind you. I personally would like the be paid more

I am pain many multiples of the national average wage with a nice bonus structure

Are you having a bit of a breakdown at the moment?

slingerz

Rikand wrote: »

It'll be back over 1000 when the results of all the Paddys day parties comes back

What’s amazing is the daily swab amounts and positives haven’t had that number so don’t know how they came to it as a positive case number

Macker1

Where are the Mods


Please close this thread down or at the very least temporarily ban the posters that are very much on what appears to be a feckin trolling mission.

gypsy79

slingerz wrote: »

700+ cases today, forget golf in April lads it’s not happening

You cant look at one day in isolation. The rolling average is up about 1%. Pretty small in the scale of things given the rate at which potential future hospitalisations and deaths are been mitigated by vaccinations

The hospital numbers are down approx 30% of the same time and deaths report down 50%

Seve OB

Rikand wrote: »

It'll be back over 1000 when the results of all the Paddys day parties comes back

Ah them would be the parties which people went to because they were not able to play a bit of socially distant golf

Arnold54321

From Beaverstown’s Twitter account.

Latest doing the rounds on what's app.
"The word from Golf Ireland is that golf will resume on 12 April , members only for first 12 weeks, 2-balls only for first 6 weeks (possibly for 12 weeks if case levels are not very low)."
Any thoughts ?