How many people have had pneumonia in the past 6 months that you know?

Wibbs

I'd say the vast majority of these cases were the flu. Before late February, early March anyway. I'd be interested in taking an antibody test only because I caught the January dose from a mate who had been travelling in Europe over Christmas, however he and his family had already had the flu in early December, or that was what it was diagnosed as. I didn't catch that from him(I've only had symptomatic flu once in my life), but I did get the January dose. Headache, strong fever and hacking unproductive no phlegm cough. I was over the worst of it in about three days, but the cough persisted, no breathing difficulties. My friend was very hard hit by it with him and his wife also getting the breathing difficulties(she was nearly hospitalised) and they were out of action for weeks and were still below par months later. His kids barely had a sniffle, except for his eldest who got it bad enough. Then again if I did take the test and it came back positive it's more likely I was exposed later on and was asymptomatic.

Pablo Escobar

Wibbs wrote: »

I'd say the vast majority of these cases were the flu. Before late February, early March anyway. I'd be interested in taking an antibody test only because I caught the January dose from a mate who had been travelling in Europe over Christmas, however he and his family had already had the flu in early December, or that was what it was diagnosed as. I didn't catch that from him(I've only had symptomatic flu once in my life), but I did get the January dose. Headache, strong fever and hacking unproductive no phlegm cough. I was over the worst of it in about three days, but the cough persisted, no breathing difficulties. My friend was very hard hit by it with him and his wife also getting the breathing difficulties(she was nearly hospitalised) and they were out of action for weeks and were still below par months later. His kids barely had a sniffle, except for his eldest who got it bad enough. Then again if I did take the test and it came back positive it's more likely I was exposed later on and was asymptomatic.

In my own case, in the days preceding, my son was mildly ill. I had been at home in Cork, I was in Dublin and I live in Kilkenny. It's common knowledge that the first case of identified community transmission in Ireland was in Cork, hospitalised around 24/25th February but not identified for nearly 2 weeks. So, the virus had to have been circulating at the very latest the 1st/2nd week of February. It's highly likely that it was here in January, but probably far less likely that many if any December reports of illness were Covid. It's my GP's opinion that I most likely had it. I'd put my infection date (of whatever that was) at around 8th Feb. I didn't start showing symptoms for another 5 days or so.

Flickerfusion

I've one relative who'd a very bad dose of what was described as flu, but without any swab testing. That then turned into what their GP described as pneumonia, largely based on blood oxygen being low, and was treated with antibiotics, antivirals and then steroids. They are still coughing quite heavily a few months later.

Deagol

Wibbs wrote: »

I'd say the vast majority of these cases were the flu. Before late February, early March anyway. I'd be interested in taking an antibody test only because I caught the January dose from a mate who had been travelling in Europe over Christmas, however he and his family had already had the flu in early December, or that was what it was diagnosed as. I didn't catch that from him(I've only had symptomatic flu once in my life), but I did get the January dose. Headache, strong fever and hacking unproductive no phlegm cough. I was over the worst of it in about three days, but the cough persisted, no breathing difficulties. My friend was very hard hit by it with him and his wife also getting the breathing difficulties(she was nearly hospitalised) and they were out of action for weeks and were still below par months later. His kids barely had a sniffle, except for his eldest who got it bad enough. Then again if I did take the test and it came back positive it's more likely I was exposed later on and was asymptomatic.

I considered what you are saying but -

In the case of the two people I quoted - it 100% wasn't flu that landed them in hospital.

13 year old was not ill before the pneumonia, it happened in the space of 36 hours. I, at least don't think that's likely with flu? Usually flu that develops into a more serious illness will take a few days? Plus, how would doctor and hospital not have diagnosed it as such?

For my Brother in law, he had flu like symptoms but again - doctors / hospital did not diagnose it as flu and categorically stated they did not know the cause. I find it strange that medical professionals would not recognize such a common malady.

I do agree though, once antibody testing is out there and widespread the results will be interesting. A side note though, a friend in Scotland was diagnosed over the phone by a GP with Covid19 (I know, i know.. over the phone diagnoses...) around mid-April. He recently had the fingerprick antibody test done and it came back as inconclusive. He's since had some kind of blood test version done but I haven't heard the results yet. But sounds like the antibody test may not answer all questions if it's not a conclusive test in at least a very significant number of cases?

Deagol

US2 wrote: »

Maybe not lies but it wasnt Corona. The hospital and ICU numbers are there for everyone to see. Get a grip

Unless I've time travelled into a parallel universe and this is Germany c.1939 or North Korea, People are allowed to ask questions and state opinions etc.

Just because you don't agree is not a good reason to go around calling people liars. Please do the intelligent people trying to have an interesting conversation
a favour and crawl back under your rock.

ACitizenErased

I’ve a few close contacts high up in the CUH who are absolutely convinced COVID has been around since October. These are well established nurses who have been treating it.

LLMMLL

Everyone thinks they had covid. Vast vast majority of them had flu.

For a while you could only get tested if you had symptoms and vast majority of them went on to test negative.

Symptoms do not equal covid.

Pablo Escobar

LLMMLL wrote: »

Everyone thinks they had covid. Vast vast majority of them had flu.

For a while you could only get tested if you had symptoms and vast majority of them went on to test negative.

Symptoms do not equal covid.

It’s true that many who think they had won’t have had, but it’s likely other who have have not even had the thought. The antigen tests are going to be a key tool in dealing with this going forward.

ACitizenErased

LLMMLL wrote: »

Everyone thinks they had covid. Vast vast majority of them had flu.

For a while you could only get tested if you had symptoms and vast majority of them went on to test negative.

Symptoms do not equal covid.

Many people have said they had symptoms in December and tested negative for the flu. You cant just immediately blame the flu for everything.

LLMMLL

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Many people have said they had symptoms in December and tested negative for the flu. You cant just immediately blame the flu for everything.

Testing negative for flu is not the same as testing positive for covid. And most of the anecdotal "I had a terrible dose in January" people did Not test negative for flu. They should be taken with a massive grain of salt.

owlbethere

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I’ve a few close contacts high up in the CUH who are absolutely convinced COVID has been around since October. These are well established nurses who have been treating it.

Did these nurses become sick with whatever dose that was going around?

owlbethere

Any body posting here get the flu vaccine and still became sick?

Assetbacked

I was knocked off my feet for five days in mid-December and would never be run down for more than a day when I occasionally feel awful. The boss was in bed for a full seven days himself just after me. It was an unusually strong "flu". This anecdotal evidence is leaning me more towards a view that we probably already have herd immunity for covid19 and there won't be a second wave. If I had it, everyone would have had it as I didn't go anywhere abnormal and just pottered about Dublin.

LLMMLL

Assetbacked wrote: »

I was knocked off my feet for five days in mid-December and would never be run down for more than a day when I occasionally feel awful. The boss was in bed for a full seven days himself just after me. It was an unusually strong "flu". This anecdotal evidence is leaning me more towards a view that we probably already have herd immunity for covid19 and there won't be a second wave. If I had it, everyone would have had it as I didn't go anywhere abnormal and just pottered about Dublin.

Except you didn't have it.

SEPT 23 1989

Smoking for 25 years so well used to respiratory infections etc

The dose I got before Christmas was very different to anything I have ever experienced before

Jurgen Klopp

The US did tests on samples of 2 people who died one was February 7th I think and it was positive for c19 and they reckon he had to have contacted early January, the baffling thing was the patient had no history of travel. France had first case December

What I'm wondering is what if the first wave was what originated from China in October and then it mutated early 2020 into a deadlier form we have been experiencing and we in fact have been dealing with the 2nd wave?

bitburger

So I flew dublin to amsterdam the week before christmas coming back a day or 2 before christmas eve.


on both legs of our flight, there was at least 1 asian family sitting close enough to us all wearing surgical masks.



I remember at the time thinking "hah look at these fools in their masks"



Of course ever since then it has kept me thinking has it been around longer than what the data we have suggests.



Quite a few people i know also had that bad christmas flu and suspected it to be covid but of course at this stage it cannot be proven really if it was or not.

CosmicFool

My mam was told she had pneumonia around Christmas. We're wondering was it Covid 19 now. I told her to get checked to see if she actually had it.

Pablo Escobar

CosmicFool wrote: »

My mam was told she had pneumonia around Christmas. We're wondering was it Covid 19 now. I told her to get checked to see if she actually had it.

That can only happen with an antibody/antigen test. They are not publicly available yet. It'll be next month at the earliest before a test is available and I don't even know how it'll actually be done. Obviously, ideally you'd walk in off the street and be tested, but at this stage that's probably unlikely initially.

Flickerfusion

The most accurate one requires a full blood test, but there are versions available that will likely be just test-at-home with a finger tip pin prick like a blood sugar test.

There are a lot of companies working on different approaches to it, so I would assume you'll have a number of tests available both through the HSE and also probably privately and eventually online.

Deagol

LLMMLL wrote: »

Except you didn't have it.

Source for this? Or are you just being dogmatic?

Just as people who think this scenario is plausible cannot yet prove it - so you also cannot disprove it.

We're all aware that current best expert opinions are against the theory / scenario proposed but in stressful situations where things are rapidly changing; group think becomes a huge problem. Many people and that includes scientists and medical experts can make errors due to peer pressure not to rock the boat. Look at the situation around stomach ulcers, for over 20 years two medical experts tried and failed to convince the rest of the medical world that they were caused by bacteria and could be treated with antibiotics - 20 years even when their science was extremely convincing. http://https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_peptic_ulcer_disease_and_Helicobacter_pylori

Mass hysteria can also make people unlikely to dispute the group conclusions even when they plainly can see something is not right - there are many studies that prove this point. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_mentality

So, can you just come into the discussion with an open mind and contribute something positive, even if you disagree with the premise? :cool:

normanoffside

Anybody thinking they might have had Covid-19 could get an antibody test from the Tropical Medical Bureau (€80)

https://www.tmb.ie/coronavirus-antibody-test

Guy:Incognito

bitburger wrote: »

So I flew dublin to amsterdam the week before christmas coming back a day or 2 before christmas eve.


on both legs of our flight, there was at least 1 asian family sitting close enough to us all wearing surgical masks.



I remember at the time thinking "hah look at these fools in their masks"



Of course ever since then it has kept me thinking has it been around longer than what the data we have suggests.

Asian people have been wearing masks for years. You see them all the time in Dublin.

It's not an indicator of anything other than they they are probably used to smog levels that make people really sick in whatever city they are coming from and possibly assume its going to be the same in Europe or are being cautious anyway.

Guy:Incognito

Is there any indication whatsoever that there was even a noticeable rise in Flu deaths over the winter?

jlm29

Pablo Escobar wrote: »

I was at the GP on Friday and mentioned this mystery illness that I had 2nd week of February. She said it was most likely Covid. She also said that in hindsight she had probably patients in January.

For me, whatever that illness was, I got over it in 10 days. It was mainly absolutely fine, but about 3 days of breathing difficulties which had me on the verge of calling for help. That part was pretty scary. TBH it only occurred to me a few weeks afterwards what it may have been.

I'm 34 and in very good health.

My brother was like this a few weeks ago. GP was certain it was covid. He’s super fit, very active, very well, but could barely walk up the stairs with shortness of breath. He was swabbed and it was negative.
A staggering amount of people are convinced they had covid already. But there was no major spikes in illness among healthcare workers, or in admissions to icu, so it would seem more likely to me that it’s a seasonal flu

challengemaster

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

France had first case December

Nope, they had earlier cases in France. Several identified in mid-November based on chest xray COVID-specific abnormalities. They're now looking even further back in October for earlier cases.

We really won't know until reliable and accurate antibody testing is rolled out everywhere, but anywhere that has been tested already - the level of antibody positive % among the population doesn't match with the confirmed cases anywhere so far it's been tested. Hospital and ICU numbers are fine (and I do believe they're not being fabricated in any way), but they're reflective of people testing positive for COVID-19 by PCR with an active infection while in that setting. The numbers indicate much larger percentages of the population have at some stage had COVID.

marilynrr

whatdoicare wrote: »

My young ones school was decimated by this cough that all the kids got around February. Like I'm talking 16 or 17 kids from each class all out for weeks at a time and some ending up in hospital.

My own child caught it. It was the weirdest scariest cough I have ever seen. She went to bed grand, woke up at 4am and puked her guts up, all phlegm, then this ****ing cough started, like she was drowning in phlegm. Her temperature was bonkers too, nothing brought it down but she was clinging to me for warmth. Straight into the docs next morning, the whole waiting room is full of people coughing their lungs up. Like every single person! Doctor tells me its croup! I remember thinking shes seven, this ain't croup, I dont know what this is. I'd say the doctor hadnt a ****ing clue either. He was just getting patients in all day every day with the same cough and hoping the antibiotics would go the trick.

It took a good three weeks and bags of steroids and inhalers to get her through it. Most of her class had it and were all still choking well into March.

My nieces and nephews all had it too, same thing, puking up phlegm and mad temperature. Niece and nephew in another county had it and the doctor told my sister it was some random thing like scarlet fever!

I would 100% agree this has been doing the rounds since Christmas and we just didnt know it.

There's no way that that was covid-19.
It doesn't fit in in any way with the worldwide experience of how covid-19 has been affecting kids!!

wakka12

Given that antibody tests in the U.K. , Spain , Sweden and Netherlands all showed less than 5% of the population have had covid, its likely Irelands rate is even lower. And considering the number of people we have confirmed as having it in March and April makes it extremely unlikely there was any large widespread numbers of people with covid before late February

wakka12

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

Is there any indication whatsoever that there was even a noticeable rise in Flu deaths over the winter?

No, it was a particularly mild flu season. Same with most of Europe

marilynrr

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

Is there any indication whatsoever that there was even a noticeable rise in Flu deaths over the winter?

There wasn't. An Italian report said that the flu season being so mild meant that there was an increased pool of vulnerable people when covid-19 hit.