Covid19 Part XVIII-25,473 in ROI(1,736 deaths) 5,760 in NI (551 deaths)(30/06)Read OP

stephenjmcd

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Does anyone here know how a suspected case in hospital is defined? Is it someone with symptoms or is it anyone who has gotten a swab taken? Because there's quite a high proportion of hospitalised suspected cases.

Its anyone who's had a swab taken. Literally if your in for anything at all now that involves a stay in hosptial theres regular tests. I haven't been posting the suspected cases nightly here as generally they're always around the same levels and never reflected recently in the actually numbers admitted with confirmed covid.

If you take a look back through the previous operations reports it fluctuates anywhere from 200 to the high 300s most days

dublinman1990

I have some sad news to report to you guys. My mam has just told me tonight that one of my aunts who had been battling breast cancer for a few years had died in hospital on Wednesday. Her private funeral mass had taken place this morning. My mam got the phone call from one of my other aunts only a while ago. It has left me in complete disbelief. I asked her did she have Covid-19 before she died. She said to me; no, she had died of cancer. I hope she is at peace now.

Plumbthedepths

Gael23 wrote: »

Seen a story on RTE that in Dublin City there is currently no publicly accessible toilet facility given that so many shops are closed

The Liffey is closed?

Away With The Fairies

dublinman1990 wrote: »

I have some sad news to report to you guys. My mam has just told me tonight that one of my aunts who had been battling breast cancer for a few years had died in hospital on Wednesday. Her private funeral mass had taken place this morning. My mam got the phone call from one of my other aunts only a while ago. It has left me in complete disbelief. I asked her did she have Covid-19 before she died. She said to me; no, she had died of cancer. I hope she is at peace now.

I am so sorry for your loss.

ACitizenErased

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Its anyone who's had a swab taken. Literally if your in for anything at all now that involves a stay in hosptial theres regular tests. I haven't been posting the suspected cases nightly here as generally they're always around the same levels and never reflected recently in the actually numbers admitted with confirmed covid.

If you take a look back through the previous operations reports it fluctuates anywhere from 200 to the high 300s most days

Was thinking that yeah.

Am I right in reading from page 5, middle column that we have 25 confirmed hospital cases so far for today? Is that what that number is?

stephenjmcd

So to follow up from what ACitizenErased posted there a few minutes ago regarding the operations report.

Incase anyone hasn't been following them recently

As of 18:30 42 in ICU witn confirmed covid, down from 45 yesterday, unfortunately from 10am yesterday to 10am today there were 2 ICU deaths.

In terms of acute hosptial general beds, 171 confirmed covid as of 8pm, down from 193 last night.

8 confirmed cases in Irish hospitals in the last 24hrs, the same as yesterday, only 2 of which were in Dublin hospitals

Plumbthedepths

dublinman1990 wrote: »

I have some sad news to report to you guys. My mam has just told me tonight that one of my aunts who had been battling breast cancer for a few years had died in hospital on Wednesday. Her private funeral mass had taken place this morning. My mam got the phone call from one of my other aunts only a while ago. It has left me in complete disbelief. I asked her did she have Covid-19 before she died. She said to me; no, she had died of cancer. I hope she is at peace now.

That's tough , condolences to your family. My wife got news of an aunt of hers passing yesterday. Long battle with cancer. Unable to attend the funeral and say goodbye is a head wrecker. No outlet for the grief that follows.

stephenjmcd

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Was thinking that yeah.

Am I right in reading from page 5, middle column that we have 25 confirmed hospital cases so far for today? Is that what that number is?

That figure can be a bit misleading to look at, so its total confirmed cases in the last 24hrs, so at 8pm tonight there were 8 confirmed cases in the last 24hrs.

I've no idea why they present it like this. Would be easier to just match it up with the reporting done from the dept of health, the one that runs midnight to midnight and just say we've had x cases in the last 24hrs instead of giving the interval figures

ACitizenErased

stephenjmcd wrote: »

That figure can be a bit misleading to look at, so its total confirmed cases in the last 24hrs, so at 8pm tonight there were 8 confirmed cases in the last 24hrs.

I've no idea why they present it like this. Would be easier to just match it up with the reporting done from the dept of health, the one that runs midnight to midnight and just say we've had x cases in the last 24hrs instead of giving the interval figures

Ah yes. That's actually quite a good figure and it's stable.

bb1234567

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2169.short?rss=1

Pilot study in Sheffield shows 1 in 3 do not cooperate in contact tracing procedures. Bet you it would be far better result in any European country except England

stephenjmcd

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Ah yes. That's actually quite a good figure and it's stable.

Yeah its fairly stable and dublin hospitals reporting less cases daily too.

I can understand presenting the bed occupancy levels by the different times of day but presenting the tests as every 24hrs I think is misleading, should do the same as the beds and present the live figures recorded at that time today.

caveat emptor

Serious point...stay with me for a minute. Sounds mental but might not be.

Why can't we do an A B experiment? Most people fall into one of two camps naturally. Why don't we allow people who want to return to normal to do so and those that want to remain isolated for whatever reason to do so also.

This phased approach would accomplish the following in my eyes

- reduce the burden on the health service if the worst were to happen by 50% thereby allowing it to cope should it need to.
- lessen the economic hit by 50% with 50% of the human capital in operation
- 100% of people would be happy in the short term at least and potential in the mid term.

Depending on how the experiment goes we could reopen or restrict

Jim_Hodge

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

177 cases in South Korea 3 days. We are at 158 in 3 days. Not that far off from 177. 177 cases in a country with 51 million people. 177 is a handful in South Korea.

Not sure what your point is. This isn't just going to magically disappear. S. Korea had a handful of cases and out case numbers are decreasing. Neither of us will, realistically have zero cases for some time yet.

Jim_Hodge

Gael23 wrote: »

Seen a story on RTE that in Dublin City there is currently no publicly accessible toilet facility given that so many shops are closed

Yes, they just copied an identical story on BBC last night.

normanoffside

Is it not obvious to everyone by now that the virus is just simply dying out and running out of steam?
It has taken the same pattern in most countries.
It got in before people realised and spread like wildfire.
The countries that did 'well' were those that quickly banned mass gatherings and stopped travellers coming in from infected regions.
Countries that did worse are those who didn't take those measures and let it spread more internally before bringing in mitigation measures.
I would include Ireland in the countries that did worse (we could have introduced a quarantine measure in march to stop spread from tourists coming back from Skiing trips, Cheltenham, Italian/Liverpool Matches etc).

However what is universal is that whatever the start point (first recorded deaths/infections), the virus spread rapidly for a short period, peaked after 5-6 weeks and dropped off thereafter.
We are now at the point where it is almost non existent and our mitigation measures are ineffective yet we are still not taking lessons from other countries and continuing as if it will surge again.

LiquidZeb

normanoffside wrote: »

Is it not obvious to everyone by now that the virus is just simply dying out and running out of steam?
It has taken the same pattern in most countries.
It got in before people realised and spread like wildfire.
The countries that did 'well' were those that quickly banned mass gatherings and stopped travellers coming in from infected regions.
Countries that did worse are those who didn't take those measures and let it spread more internally before bringing in mitigation measures.
I would include Ireland in the countries that did worse (we could have introduced a quarantine measure in march to stop spread from tourists coming back from Skiing trips, Cheltenham, Italian/Liverpool Matches etc).

However what is universal is that whatever the start point (first recorded deaths/infections), the virus spread rapidly for a short period, peaked after 5-6 weeks and dropped off thereafter.
We are now at the point where it is almost non existent and our mitigation measures are ineffective yet we are still not taking lessons from other countries and continuing as if it will surge again.

As much as I'd like for that to be true I don't think we're out of the woods yet.

bb1234567

normanoffside wrote: »

Is it not obvious to everyone by now that the virus is just simply dying out and running out of steam?
It has taken the same pattern in most countries.
It got in before people realised and spread like wildfire.
The countries that did 'well' were those that quickly banned mass gatherings and stopped travellers coming in from infected regions.
Countries that did worse are those who didn't take those measures and let it spread more internally before bringing in mitigation measures.
I would include Ireland in the countries that did worse (we could have introduced a quarantine measure in march to stop spread from tourists coming back from Skiing trips, Cheltenham, Italian/Liverpool Matches etc).

However what is universal is that whatever the start point (first recorded deaths/infections), the virus spread rapidly for a short period, peaked after 5-6 weeks and dropped off thereafter.
We are now at the point where it is almost non existent and our mitigation measures are ineffective yet we are still not taking lessons from other countries and continuing as if it will surge again.

Unfortunately this is unlikely to be true, there is no reason why it would run out of steam when only about 1 in every 25 Europeans has antibodies. It has taken up the same pattern because almost every country has taken up the same measures to stop the spread.

Just as an example , Brazil and Mexico do not look to be close to a peak for the foreseeable really despite being about 6-7 weeks into their epidemics

normanoffside

LiquidZeb wrote: »

As much as I'd like for that to be true I don't think we're out of the woods yet.

In what sense?
All Countries on a downward trajectory of infections and deaths have shown that the rate of infection and death continues to go down after restrictions are lifted.

Arghus

normanoffside wrote: »

In what sense?
All Countries on a downward trajectory of infections and deaths have shown that the rate of infection and death continues to go down after restrictions are lifted.

In the sense that nobody can state with certainty whether the virus will or will not return.

hmmm

normanoffside wrote: »

In what sense?
All Countries on a downward trajectory of infections and deaths have shown that the rate of infection and death continues to go down after restrictions are lifted.

We haven't figured out yet which combination of tactics are best at suppressing the virus, and we don't know enough yet about the virus itself and how it spreads.

It certainly seems like general social distancing, banning mass gatherings, and largely banning indoor events make a massive difference. We know more every day - I look at the list of things proposed for "Phase 5" and it's like a shopping list of all the things that cause the virus to spread, and by the time we get to that phase we'll be able to convince the public of the same thing - I suspect public health may be thinking the same.

I suppose the context of your question is that we should rush into doing certain things because we "know" how the virus spreads and can control it. I don't think we're there yet, and it's a risky experiment if we get it wrong. Other countries are a few weeks ahead of us, why not let them take the experiment and see how they get on? The same point was made today about school openings in September - if we see a rush of school infections in places like France or Switzerland that will all be put on the back burner, but if not it will give us great confidence to proceed.

growleaves

bb1234567 wrote: »

Just as an example , Brazil and Mexico do not look to be close to a peak for the foreseeable really despite being about 6-7 weeks into their epidemics

The Southern Hemisphere is just entering its cold & flu season.

bb1234567

normanoffside wrote: »

In what sense?
All Countries on a downward trajectory of infections and deaths have shown that the rate of infection and death continues to go down after restrictions are lifted.

The restrictions are not lifted, they are just different. Have you seen the pictures of schools and cafes in Germany Denmark etc? Life is anything but normal in these places, life has simply been entirely remade toward stopping the virus

As I said, the trajectory is down because of these very intense measures that continue now. Not because the virus felt like heading off. Really important that everyone appreciates and realises that.

normanoffside

Arghus wrote: »

In the sense that nobody can state with certainty whether the virus will or will not return.

That's fine and if it does start returning we can all taking mitigating measures against it.
Surely we will be able to detect it at source much quicker than before and have the systems already in place to suppress it.

There is also no Guarantee that it will return the same way it appeared in the first place.

bb1234567

growleaves wrote: »

The Southern Hemisphere is just entering its cold & flu season.

And..?

caveat emptor

normanoffside wrote: »

Is it not obvious to everyone by now that the virus is just simply dying out and running out of steam?
It has taken the same pattern in most countries.
It got in before people realised and spread like wildfire.
The countries that did 'well' were those that quickly banned mass gatherings and stopped travellers coming in from infected regions.
Countries that did worse are those who didn't take those measures and let it spread more internally before bringing in mitigation measures.
I would include Ireland in the countries that did worse (we could have introduced a quarantine measure in march to stop spread from tourists coming back from Skiing trips, Cheltenham, Italian/Liverpool Matches etc).

However what is universal is that whatever the start point (first recorded deaths/infections), the virus spread rapidly for a short period, peaked after 5-6 weeks and dropped off thereafter.
We are now at the point where it is almost non existent and our mitigation measures are ineffective yet we are still not taking lessons from other countries and continuing as if it will surge again.

Unfortunately there is a thing called winter and virus' tend to......as Peter crouch would say. "Come back stronger."

As happy as these figures make me feel, we simply don't know what will happen in October November.
Maybe it's not like other virus'.
Maybe it has evolved to be less harmful.
Here's hoping but I would not bet my life on it.

LiquidZeb

normanoffside wrote: »

In what sense?
All Countries on a downward trajectory of infections and deaths have shown that the rate of infection and death continues to go down after restrictions are lifted.

Well I don't think it'll just go away completely on its own. While I think the chances of it going out of control are fairly low I don't think it'll completely fade away. I can see what you're saying though.

bb1234567

LiquidZeb wrote: »

Well I don't think it'll just go away completely on its own. While I think the chances of it going out of control are fairly low I don't think it'll completely fade away. I can see what you're saying though.

I agree , I don't think we will ever see a repeat of what happened in March and April in Europe again but to think a virus as infectious as this would simply die out without intervention is particularly naive

WomanSkirtFan8

normanoffside wrote: »

Is it not obvious to everyone by now that the virus is just simply dying out and running out of steam?
It has taken the same pattern in most countries.
It got in before people realised and spread like wildfire.
The countries that did 'well' were those that quickly banned mass gatherings and stopped travellers coming in from infected regions.
Countries that did worse are those who didn't take those measures and let it spread more internally before bringing in mitigation measures.
I would include Ireland in the countries that did worse (we could have introduced a quarantine measure in march to stop spread from tourists coming back from Skiing trips, Cheltenham, Italian/Liverpool Matches etc).

However what is universal is that whatever the start point (first recorded deaths/infections), the virus spread rapidly for a short period, peaked after 5-6 weeks and dropped off thereafter.
We are now at the point where it is almost non existent and our mitigation measures are ineffective yet we are still not taking lessons from other countries and continuing as if it will surge again.

As much as I'm sure we'd all like for all that to be true, the real truth is that it simply isn't. This virus could flare up again at any given moment and we'd then be in an even worse situation.
Best thing to do for the moment is to stick with the current situation as is for the moment and adhear to the current guidelines. This is not the time for complacency as that will only lead to further disaster. :cool:

hmmm

normanoffside wrote: »

That's fine and if it does start returning we can all taking mitigating measures against it.
Surely we will be able to detect it at source much quicker than before and have the systems already in place to suppress it.

Sure, but if we throw open everything and it starts to return, we have to go into lockdown again - because we won't know what we've done which has restarted it.

A phased approach makes total sense. If after a phase the virus starts to spread, we know it's something we've done as part of that phase which has probably caused it.

normanoffside

hmmm wrote: »

I suppose the context of your question is that we should rush into doing certain things because we "know" how the virus spreads and can control it. I don't think we're there yet, and it's a risky experiment if we get it wrong. Other countries are a few weeks ahead of us, why not let them take the experiment and see how they get on? The same point was made today about school openings in September - if we see a rush of school infections in places like France or Switzerland that will all be put on the back burner, but if not it will give us great confidence to proceed.

Denmark, Austria and Slovenia amongst other countries are at least 6 weeks ahead of us.

Why are we not learning from the already?