Covid19 Part XVIII-25,473 in ROI(1,736 deaths) 5,760 in NI (551 deaths)(30/06)Read OP

ACitizenErased

timsey tiger wrote: »

Ah here are you saying that the one that takes it's place has strengthened then?

As I said, the mutation of influenza and coronavirus cannot be compared, they're different. Influenza mutates rapidly and erratically. SARS-CoVi-2 has mutated at a slightly slower pace and hasn't become much different from its original form. There is no evidence to suggest it has become more aggressive, and there is discussion that it has become weaker.

I think you need to stop panicking a bit!

ZX7R

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Yes that exactly explains why the flu vaccine is different every year, because one weakens and another takes its place. The difference with COVID-19 is that the characteristics and traits of that original strain and its mutations aren’t vastly different from one another. Scientists believe the mutations likely won’t interfere with the effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccine.

RNA is the genetic make up a virus like DNA

Flu is the influenza virus.
Covid-19 is coronavirous virus.
Both are different virus's
This is the mistake most posters make instead of looking at both as different virus's they think both are the same because they are made up of the same RNA.
It's like life on earth the DNA is the same but what you get is not

ACitizenErased

Heard from a reliable source that testing centres in Cork are being virtually closed due to lack of demand. Current testing is taking place of nursing homes, monasteries, convents etc.

blackcard

Northern Ireland seems to have a lower death rate than ourselves? If their death rate was the same as ours, they would have 602 deaths rather than their actual number of 523?

ShineOn7

So is this the epicentre of Ireland's epicentre (Dublin)?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/highest-covid-19-incidence-recorded-on-north-side-of-dublin-1.4261097

• What are your thoughts on why it's so high in these areas of Dublin?
• Are there many nursing homes in them compared to the rest of Dublin?
• More ignoring the rules and house/street parties in these areas?

Dublin north west has the highest concentration of Covid-19, with 2,183 cases and 115 deaths. The area includes Glasnevin, Phibsboro, Cabra, Finglas, and Blanchardstown.


A breakdown of figures reveals the number of coronavirus cases and deaths in the HSE’s eight community care areas.
The figures show the Dublin north area, which stretches from Coolock to Howth and then as far as Skerries, has 2,164 coronavirus cases, and 125 deaths to date.

I'm a little concerned as I've reletives in some of the areas mentioned

ongarite

Proximity to airport would be my guess based on a very interesting Twitter discussion.

https://twitter.com/Care2much18/status/1266994058603319299

STB.

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Virtually all of the cases we report for the last 2 weeks are trackable. That means there's no community transmission. The only people catching the virus rn are close contacts. The CMO has said this many times. There's a reason our close contacts percentage has risen above community transmission to nearly 60% total.

It does not mean that. "Virtually" is not none (per your personal commentary in italics above). Pay attention to the words virtually. The CMO has said repeatedly that he could not say community transmission has been eliminated.

Transmission is considered localised (aka close contact) when authorities are able to dentify and trace individual cases, and ring-fence a "cluster" to prevent the spread of infection. That this emanated within a community is neither here nor there and is recorded and categorised as local.

It does not mean there is no community transmission. Community transmission has not eliminated.

It is still within communities. Its just not considered "widespread". They are using broad terms. That is why Irish infectious disease experts are warning about the consequences of easing restrictions quickly.

Professor Sam McConkey today said.

"We don't want a situation where some parts of the country, like the west, have almost controlled it completely, but other parts, particularly Dublin and Cork, the bigger cities, still have uncontrolled community transmission. "If you open up travel, people might carry and reintroduce the virus back into areas in the west where there's no transmission at present," he said."

timsey tiger

ACitizenErased wrote: »

As I said, the mutation of influenza and coronavirus cannot be compared, they're different. Influenza mutates rapidly and erratically. SARS-CoVi-2 has mutated at a slightly slower pace and hasn't become much different from its original form. There is no evidence to suggest it has become more aggressive, and there is discussion that it has become weaker.

I think you need to stop panicking a bit!

I'm quiet sanguine at the moment, just not ready for fairy stories.

HaHa, that's not what you said at all, but I'll take the recourse to the old ad hominem fallacy as an admission of defeat.

fritzelly

STB. wrote: »

"We don't want a situation where some parts of the country, like the west, have almost controlled it completely, but other parts, particularly Dublin and Cork, the bigger cities, still have uncontrolled community transmission. "If you open up travel, people might carry and reintroduce the virus back into areas in the west where there's no transmission at present," he said."

Only an additional 11 cases in Dublin today, 8 yesterday
Cork - 8 yesterday, 5 today

Hardly uncontrolled

timsey tiger

blackcard wrote: »

Northern Ireland seems to have a lower death rate than ourselves? If their death rate was the same as ours, they would have 602 deaths rather than their actual number of 523?

I think the operative word there is "seems", I understand their excess deaths would indicate they are running at about 1.5 times our level per capita

ACitizenErased

STB. wrote: »

It does not mean that. "Virtually" is not none (per your words are in italics). Pay attention to the words virtually. The CMO has said repeatedly that he could not say community transmission has been eliminated.

Transmission is considered localised (aka close contact) when authorities are able to dentify and trace individual cases, and ring-fence a "cluster" to prevent the spread of infection. That this emanated within a community is neither here nor there and is recorded as local.

It does not mean there is no community transmission. It is not eliminated.

It is still within communities. Its just not considered "widespread". That is why Irish infectious disease experts are warning about the consequences of easing restrictions quickly.

Professor Sam McConkey today said.

"We don't want a situation where some parts of the country, like the west, have almost controlled it completely, but other parts, particularly Dublin and Cork, the bigger cities, still have uncontrolled community transmission. "If you open up travel, people might carry and reintroduce the virus back into areas in the west where there's no transmission at present," he said."

https://www.thejournal.ie/tony-holohan-community-transmission-5102798-May2020/

“We have it down to a very, very low level. We don’t have widespread community transmission.”

1) I don't get why you're picking apart every single word I say.


2) Uncontrolled community transmission is NOT prevelant. I post the CUH numbers on here every single day, the fact there is currently 3 people in the CUH suggests that is complete bullsh*t. Uncontrolled community transmission is a sign of exponential growth (I can italicize words too). Our growth rate is 0.2% (Spoiler: Not Exponential).



I've never heard such nonsense on this thread, honestly. I think you've taken the prize. You must be new on here, haven't seen you around.

timsey tiger

STB. wrote: »

It does not mean that. "Virtually" is not none (per your personal commentary in italics above). Pay attention to the words virtually. The CMO has said repeatedly that he could not say community transmission has been eliminated.

Transmission is considered localised (aka close contact) when authorities are able to dentify and trace individual cases, and ring-fence a "cluster" to prevent the spread of infection. That this emanated within a community is neither here nor there and is recorded and categorised as local.

It does not mean there is no community transmission. Community transmission has not eliminated.

It is still within communities. Its just not considered "widespread". They are using broad terms. That is why Irish infectious disease experts are warning about the consequences of easing restrictions quickly.

Professor Sam McConkey today said.

"We don't want a situation where some parts of the country, like the west, have almost controlled it completely, but other parts, particularly Dublin and Cork, the bigger cities, still have uncontrolled community transmission. "If you open up travel, people might carry and reintroduce the virus back into areas in the west where there's no transmission at present," he said."

I've been told to stop panicking, so I'll pass it forward. There is no "uncontrolled community transmission" at the moment in Ireland.

BTW for all you know the recent cases are in Cork county not city. The meat factory was county cork after all.

owlbethere

STB. wrote: »

It does not mean that. "Virtually" is not none (per your personal commentary in italics above). Pay attention to the words virtually. The CMO has said repeatedly that he could not say community transmission has been eliminated.

Transmission is considered localised (aka close contact) when authorities are able to dentify and trace individual cases, and ring-fence a "cluster" to prevent the spread of infection. That this emanated within a community is neither here nor there and is recorded and categorised as local.

It does not mean there is no community transmission. Community transmission has not eliminated.

It is still within communities. Its just not considered "widespread". They are using broad terms. That is why Irish infectious disease experts are warning about the consequences of easing restrictions quickly.

Professor Sam McConkey today said.

"We don't want a situation where some parts of the country, like the west, have almost controlled it completely, but other parts, particularly Dublin and Cork, the bigger cities, still have uncontrolled community transmission. "If you open up travel, people might carry and reintroduce the virus back into areas in the west where there's no transmission at present," he said."

Why isn't there more emphasis on this being reported more?

There were scenes coming out from Galway over the past few days. I think wedn8and Thursday, large crowds gathered at the Spanish arch. Something similar happened then in salthill. Large crowds and gatherings.

I presume people felt somewhat safe thinking community transmission is nil so gathered in groups and crowds. I would be afraid for case numbers in a fortnights time. Hopefully the virus isn't easily transmitted outside but I read something about people getting ill from gathering on bondi beach before restrictions were brought in there.

timsey tiger

ZX7R wrote: »

This is the mistake most posters make instead of looking at both as different virus's they think both are the same because they are made up of the same RNA.
It's like life on earth the DNA is the same but what you get is not

lol, read that back.

They both are RNA viruses, they however have different RNA.

ACitizenErased

owlbethere wrote: »

Why isn't there more emphasis on this being reported more?

There were scenes coming out from Galway over the past few days. I think wedn8and Thursday, large crowds gathered at the Spanish arch. Something similar happened then in salthill. Large crowds and gatherings.

I presume people felt somewhat safe thinking community transmission is nil so gathered in groups and crowds. I would be afraid for case numbers in a fortnights time. Hopefully the virus isn't easily transmitted outside but I read something about people getting ill from gathering on bondi beach before restrictions were brought in there.

It's not being reported more because it's not true. People have been gathering for weeks, zero spike.

timsey tiger

owlbethere wrote: »

Why isn't there more emphasis on this being reported more?

Well maybe, because like everything else on here, it's just something somebody wrote on the internet. News flash most of it is abject nonsense.

ZX7R

timsey tiger wrote: »

lol, read that back.

They both are RNA viruses, they however have different RNA.

They are both made from genetic RNA thats the building blocks,
And yes they are two different virus's.
It's the same as all living like is made up of the double helix DNA but all life is different

timsey tiger

ZX7R wrote: »

They are both made from genetic RNA thats the building blocks,
And yes they are two different virus's.
It's the same as all living like is made up of the double helix DNA but all life is different

In other news, grammar police are coming round to your house as we speak.

ACitizenErased

https://elemental.medium.com/coronavirus-may-be-a-blood-vessel-disease-which-explains-everything-2c4032481ab2

New evidence suggests that COVID-19 is not a respiratory disease as first thought, but a disease of the blood vessels.

STB.

ACitizenErased wrote: »

https://www.thejournal.ie/tony-holohan-community-transmission-5102798-May2020/

I don't get why you're picking apart every single word I say.

Well you are about to. I shouldn't have to explain the english language to you.


What Holohan actually said in "broad terms" and happened at a Dail Committee on the 19th May was:

TONY HOLOHAN wrote:

“In broad terms, we have effectively extinguished it from the community in general, right across the country. Much of the caseload that is now being reported is seen in the context of particular setting

We have it down to a very, very low level. We don’t have widespread community transmission

This is not the same as what you posted.

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Virtually all of the cases we report for the last 2 weeks are trackable. That means there's no community transmission. The only people catching the virus rn are close contacts. The CMO has said this many times.

It's not what he said and that's not what it means. Had you read my post you would have clearly understood that the first time.

Furthermore, did you neglect to read the rest of the transcript from that meeting when he was pushed on this.

TONY HOLOHAN wrote:

That is not to say that there are not some cases, but we have effectively extinguished it, which was the strategy from the very start. We have to start with suppressing this infection across the community before we have a chance of protecting nursing homes or other specific settings.

I couldn’t say it in absolute terms, we have it down to a very low level effectively

We don’t have widespread community transmission.”

ACitizenErased

STB. wrote: »

Well you are about to. I shouldn't have to explain the english language to you.


What Holohan actually said in "broad terms" and happened at a Dail Committee on the 19th May was:



This is not the same as what you posted.



It's not what he said and that's not what it means. Had you read my post you would have clearly understood that the first time.

Furthermore, did you neglect to read the rest of the transcript from that meeting when he was pushed on this.

You literally just posted that we have widespread uncontrolled community transmission. It's complete bullsh*t.

owlbethere

ACitizenErased wrote: »

https://elemental.medium.com/coronavirus-may-be-a-blood-vessel-disease-which-explains-everything-2c4032481ab2

New evidence suggests that COVID-19 is not a respiratory disease as first thought, but a disease of the blood vessels.

But we have far too many experts posting on boards with years of research behind them on this novel coronavirus to proof that this article is a pack of scaremongering sh1te and all this virus is, is a little, over exaggerated cold.

Polar101

Micky 32 wrote: »

Interesting statement by a senior Italian doctor that RTÉ actually posted:

"The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago," he told RAI television.

I'm wondering about that - I thought they just tested patients and got a positive or a negative result. Do they also get "positive, Covid-19 Level 4" or how do they know what the 'viral load' is? And has it been determined it makes a difference?

timsey tiger

Hey STB, I propose a little exercise for you. Go back two weeks and look at the cumulative proportion of cumulative cases assessed as community transmission. Then do the same exercise with today's figures.

Then, figure out what the results of the exercise means.

fritzelly

ACitizenErased wrote: »

https://elemental.medium.com/coronavirus-may-be-a-blood-vessel-disease-which-explains-everything-2c4032481ab2

New evidence suggests that COVID-19 is not a respiratory disease as first thought, but a disease of the blood vessels.

And there is obviously no hidden agenda there for the papers authors...

Micky 32

owlbethere wrote: »

But we have far too many experts posting on boards with years of research behind them on this novel coronavirus to proof that this article is a pack of scaremongering sh1te and all this virus is, is a little, over exaggerated cold.

I think we have as many second wave experts on boards aswell,

STB.

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Uncontrolled community transmission is NOT prevelant. I post the CUH numbers on here every single day, the fact there is currently 3 people in the CUH suggests that is complete bullsh*t. Uncontrolled community transmission is a sign of exponential growth (I can italicize words too). Our growth rate is 0.2% (Spoiler: Not Exponential).

I've never heard such nonsense on this thread, honestly. I think you've taken the prize. You must be new on here, haven't seen you around.

You took the prize with "That means there's no community transmission".

ACitizenErased wrote: »

You literally just posted that we have widespread uncontrolled community transmission. It's complete bullsh*t.

No I didn't.

You are clearly unable to read english either in media articles or posts on this thread. I am going to assume you are still at school.

You misinterpreted what Holohan said and then came to a daft conclusion that community transmission was zero. You were called on it.

Now you cannot even read a quote (these things " " are quotes) from an article on RTE and reported in several news outlets today from Professor Sam McConkey, Head of the Department of International Health and Tropical Medicine at the Royal College of Surgeons, without attributing it to the person quoting it.

If you have a problem with what he said why don't you take that matter up with him on twitter. I am sure he would be delighted to hear your medical opinion.

timsey tiger

Polar101 wrote: »

I'm wondering about that - I thought they just tested patients and got a positive or a negative result. Do they also get "positive, Covid-19 Level 4" or how do they know what the 'viral load' is? And has it been determined it makes a difference?

I understand it makes a huge difference. I see it as analogous to the country level. NewZealand got very few initial cases from abroad, meaning that their health system quickly got on top of the situation. Ireland got a much higher initial number of cases meaning that we struggled with it a lot more. (obviously. a lot more to it than that)

I don't know how they determine what the initial viral load infecting the patient was, maybe just contact tracing and inference based on the situation in which the virus was picked up.

fr336

Micky 32 wrote: »

I think we have as many second wave experts on boards aswell,

The difference is if the "nothing to see here" crowd are listened to it could result in more deaths, more lockdown and more economic strife.

timsey tiger

ACitizenErased wrote: »

https://elemental.medium.com/coronavirus-may-be-a-blood-vessel-disease-which-explains-everything-2c4032481ab2

New evidence suggests that COVID-19 is not just a respiratory disease as first thought, but a disease of the blood vessels.

fixed your post