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Covid19 Part XVIII-25,473 in ROI(1,736 deaths) 5,760 in NI (551 deaths)(30/06)Read OP

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    #212
    Away With The Fairies
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭Away With The Fairies


    mloc123 wrote: »
    WHAT infection?

    Jesus... people think it is lurking in the bushes, ready to strike... 39 cases today, you need to bump into about 125,000 people today to find one infected

    Also do the maths with this one. The virus is still out there. But sure let's get complacent.


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    #213
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    MerlinSouthDub wrote: »
    The quoted initial R0 of 3 to 4 is a fiction. You could only know the initial R0 if you knew how many people were infected originally i.e. how many people came into Ireland from Italy etc with the infection. You can guess at that number, but the calculation of R0 is hugely dependent on your guess. They are quoting a number of 3 to 4 to scare people.

    Note that estimates of the current reproductive rate are much more reliable, because we have good data on current infection rates.
    The general consensus for R0 internationally is that it is between 2-3. We were at 4 at the beginning but thankfully not for long.


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    #214
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    trapp wrote: »
    Hard to avoid the feeling that there is a large amount of people out there sitting comfortable, don't have to go to work, few friends over to the garden each evening, do a bit of baking, watch netflix.

    Happy to keep things as they are.
    This too will pass!


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    #215
    mloc123
    Registered Users Posts: 9,454 ✭✭✭mloc123


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    Also do the maths with this one. The virus is still out there. But sure let's get complacent.

    Oh I know... it is out there, lurking in the bushes... watching gangs of teenagers... just waiting to pounce on them. They will then go and kill their grandparents, but wait.. they are not meant to visit their grandparents so how will that work?


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    #216
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    39 cases today
    46 cases yesterday
    73 cases the day before

    With up to two week incubation period without showing symptoms... These people can still pass it on to people they come in contact with before showing symptoms.

    If r0 in March was to play out 39 would pass on to 117. However r0 is now 0.5 because 80% plus of contacts have been eliminated with the measures, and that’s with non compliance, so those 39 will likely pass to 20, and those 20 to 10 etc. So there is room for opening up without adding any appreciable risk. Also up to 14 days incubation does not equal 14 days. Vast majority display symptoms within 5-7days, and are only infectious for a maximum of 48 hours prior to symptoms.


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    #217
    weldoninhio
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,311 ✭✭✭✭weldoninhio


    Plumbthedepths wrote: »
    Why what makes the Irish unique? Did we experience a different strain of Covid 19 than the rest of Europe and the world?

    I don’t think the Chicken Little Society of Ireland ever want to go back to normal. They seem to be addicted to the adrenaline of fear that the virus is going to get us all.


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    #218
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users Posts: 15,258 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Arghus wrote: »
    I have no literally no doubt that things will be bumped up considerably in speed as we go on. Provided, of course, that case numbers dwindle.

    The pressure from all sides will become incredible. And plus the state doesn't want to have keep paying billions of euro out with fck all tax revenue coming in for any longer than it has too.

    You can 100% take it to the bank that if things continue as they are these phases will be lifted well before August 10th.

    Agree with this, pressure has really been building all week, if the case numbers remain continually low next week then it's going to get very difficult very quickly for them to have any justification to stick to the plan.


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    #219
    growleaves
    Registered Users Posts: 7,857 ✭✭✭growleaves


    I've already ordered my tombstone, the inscription will read:

    'I Got Complacent'


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    #220
    Away With The Fairies
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭Away With The Fairies


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    You really have to look at the case numbers and the settings they're occurring in, read past the headline.

    Cant stand the judgemental attitude now that people have developed, oh look 3 people together outdoors, what business is it of yours really?? Its happening everywhere and has been for the last few weeks, cases still declining.

    Honestly you'd swear its going to jump out of the bushes and infect someone. You'd think every person out there is infected. Paranoia

    It's not paranoia. Everybody should be treated as if they are infected. Why bother with social distancing and hand washing and whatever else otherwise.


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    #221
    LiquidZeb
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,254 ✭✭✭LiquidZeb


    mloc123 wrote: »
    Oh I know... it is out there, lurking in the bushes... watching gangs of teenagers... just waiting to pounce on them. They will then go and kill their grandparents, but wait.. they are not meant to visit their grandparents so how will that work?

    If we're not careful the virus will grab a machete and start chasing after randy teenagers like Jason Voorhees.


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    #222
    trapp
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 510 ✭✭✭trapp


    weldoninhio wrote: »
    I don’t think the Chicken Little Society of Ireland ever want to go back to normal. They seem to be addicted to the adrenaline of fear that the virus is going to get us all.

    Seems to be lost on so many that we will all die eventually.

    It is the one certainty in life.

    Completely understand the need for caution and precautions and I agree with the roadmap but the nonsense from some is mind numbing.

    They want everyone slinking around in masks, afraid of their own shadow and all our young people condemned to unemployment.

    I strongly suspect there are a large cohort who had little in their lives before this and are happy enough to try and pull a few more down to their level of fear.


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    #223
    weldoninhio
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,311 ✭✭✭✭weldoninhio


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    It's not paranoia. Everybody should be treated as if they are infected. Why bother with social distancing and hand washing and whatever else otherwise.

    Good lord. This can’t be a serious post.


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    #224
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users Posts: 1,613 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    is_that_so wrote: »
    The general consensus for R0 internationally is that it is between 2-3. We were at 4 at the beginning but thankfully not for long.

    There is no reliable data to suggest the R0 was 4 here. You are believing the dodgy modelling far too easily.

    Internationally, there are lots of studies on what R0 might be but none are definitive and they all make of assumptions. R0 is really difficult to calculate accurately but numbers are being quoted as if they are exact and definitive - they are guesses.


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    #225
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    It's not paranoia. Everybody should be treated as if they are infected. Why bother with social distancing and hand washing and whatever else otherwise.
    The trouble with that is it can permanently alter your mindset and makes it very difficult to get any sense of social equilibrium.


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    #226
    LiquidZeb
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,254 ✭✭✭LiquidZeb


    weldoninhio wrote: »
    I don’t think the Chicken Little Society of Ireland ever want to go back to normal. They seem to be addicted to the adrenaline of fear that the virus is going to get us all.

    No they just want an opportunity to start shouting abuse at people in public. It's a cheap dopamine rush for them to make a show of themselves under the guise of 'concern.'


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    #227
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users Posts: 15,258 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    It's not paranoia. Everybody should be treated as if they are infected. Why bother with social distancing and hand washing and whatever else otherwise.

    39 cases and less than 1,000 active cases.
    So no not everyone should be treated as if they have it., that is the definition of paranoia. In that case dont leave the house.


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    #228
    Away With The Fairies
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭Away With The Fairies


    Speak Now wrote: »
    Can you spot the pattern?

    158 cases in the past 3 days. 158 where all these were infectious before showing symptoms. And people continuing on as if the virus isn't here


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    #229
    trapp
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 510 ✭✭✭trapp


    weldoninhio wrote: »
    Good lord. This can’t be a serious post.

    I wouldn't bother engaging.

    It is clear that our young people and teenagers are mixing with their friends and not social distancing anyway.

    Is this perfect? No and it does carry a tiny risk.

    But the idea of all our young people staying at home, only communicating online and staying two metres apart indefinitely would be worse.


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    #230
    0gac3yjefb5sv7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,948 ✭✭✭0gac3yjefb5sv7


    Virus has been eradicated in NZ. I suggested the same months back. Been proved right now. I don't know why this approach isn't what all countries take. Its pretty simple.


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    #231
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    MerlinSouthDub wrote: »
    There is no reliable data to suggest the R0 was 4 here. You are believing the dodgy modelling far too easily.

    Internationally, there are lots of studies on what R0 might be but none are definitive and they all make of assumptions. R0 is really difficult to calculate accurately but numbers are being quoted as if they are exact and definitive - they are guesses.
    2-3 is the commonly quoted range internationally. What exactly is the learning outcome here because it looks suspiciously like listen to me I'm right?


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    #232
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    MattS1 wrote: »
    Virus has been eradicated in NZ. I suggested the same months back. Been proved right now. I don't know why this approach isn't what all countries take. Its pretty simple.
    Isolated, sparsely populated country is the best model? Sure.


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    #233
    bmcc10
    Registered Users Posts: 1,762 ✭✭✭bmcc10


    Kiana Shrilling Emerald wrote: »
    Virus has been eradicated in NZ. I suggested the same months back. Been proved right now. I don't know why this approach isn't what all countries take. Its pretty simple.

    It is so easy for NZ compared to most coutires though.


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    #234
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    It's not paranoia. Everybody should be treated as if they are infected. Why bother with social distancing and hand washing and whatever else otherwise.

    Believe it or not, it’s not about stopping all infections. Just enough to lower the r0 below 1. That’s enough to stop it. No one(well almost no one) is arguing going back to completely ignoring it. But we must live


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    #235
    Away With The Fairies
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭Away With The Fairies


    Kiana Shrilling Emerald wrote: »
    Virus has been eradicated in NZ. I suggested the same months back. Been proved right now. I don't know why this approach isn't what all countries take. Its pretty simple.

    They done amazing work on this. We should have done the same.


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    #236
    Arghus
    Registered Users Posts: 14,483 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Agree with this, pressure has really been building all week, if the case numbers remain continually low next week then it's going to get very difficult very quickly for them to have any justification to stick to the plan.

    Once a government is formed, don't be surprised to see restrictions melt away.

    Right now, while they're indulging themselves in exhaustive talks, it's handy for Tony Holohan and NPHET take the flack for everything. Even though they're just doing their job.

    Government can sweep down in a few weeks and take the plaudits for lifting restrictions.


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    #237
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 15,093 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    mloc123 wrote: »
    WHAT infection?

    Jesus... people think it is lurking in the bushes, ready to strike... 39 cases today, you need to bump into about 125,000 people today to find one infected


    It`s 39 cases because people social distanced. If we go back to large numbers congregating without social distancing then we could quickly go back to where we were.
    I fail to see how people cannot recognise that.


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    #238
    Away With The Fairies
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭Away With The Fairies


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Isolated, sparsely populated country is the best model? Sure.

    We have roughly the same population, an island on western Europe. We could have done the same. It could have worked but we welcomed in plane loads of people, no isolating of incoming passengers.


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    #239
    trapp
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 510 ✭✭✭trapp


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    We have roughly the same population, an island on western Europe. We could have done the same. It could have worked but we welcomed in plane loads of people, no isolating of incoming passengers.

    If you believe our connectedness is similar to New Zealand then I must state my poor friend that your user name is quite apt


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    #240
    0gac3yjefb5sv7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,948 ✭✭✭0gac3yjefb5sv7


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    They done amazing work on this. We should have done the same.

    Exactly. Any country can close it's borders so don't be starting with this island nonsense. Test everyone coming in any out after eradication.


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    #241
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users Posts: 15,258 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Arghus wrote: »
    Once a government is formed, don't be surprised to see restrictions melt away.

    Right now, while they're indulging themselves in exhaustive talks, it's handy for Tony Holohan and NPHET take the flack for everything. Even though they're just doing their job.

    Government can sweep down in a few weeks and take the plaudits for lifting restrictions.

    Yup and going by Micheal Martin's comments yesterday if hes in office thats exactly what'll happen.
    Tony pushes to cabinet, cabinet says we're only the caretakers so we'll do what you say.

    A properly formed government will question more and make their own decisions


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