Covid19 Part XVIII-25,473 in ROI(1,736 deaths) 5,760 in NI (551 deaths)(30/06)Read OP

Arghus

Deleted User wrote: »

Believe it or not, it’s not about stopping all infections. Just enough to lower the r0 below 1. That’s enough to stop it. No one(well almost no one) is arguing going back to completely ignoring it. But we must live

No. It's not "just enough" to lower the r0 level below 1. And it isn't enough, once achieved, to stop it. You've got to keep it there for a sustained period so the virus can't sustain itself. Just merely getting it below one and saying "fck it" isn't enough.

The bad part is it doesn't take much to go from 1 to 1.1, which leads slowly and inexorably to more cases.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

is_that_so wrote: »

Isolated, sparsely populated country is the best model? Sure.

Yeah there's no capital cities in NZ. Only about 4 people live this iirc.

bmcc10

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

We have roughly the same population, an island on western Europe. We could have done the same. It could have worked but we welcomed in plane loads of people, no isolating of incoming passengers.

No we couldn't have at all. They have same population within a country spanning the same size as Great Britian.

The closest flight is 3 hrs to Austrailia which in turn is isolated with strict immigration policy.

stephenjmcd

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

We have roughly the same population, an island on western Europe. We could have done the same. It could have worked but we welcomed in plane loads of people, no isolating of incoming passengers.

They're less densely populated and in the middle of fecking nowhere. You really can't compare the two.

I'm afraid your username is quite appropriate

Away With The Fairies

MattS1 wrote: »

Exactly. Any country can close it's borders so don't be starting with this island nonsense. Test everyone coming in any out after eradication.

I hope our country learns from our mistakes for the next pandemic and have something in place besides hand-washing and tissues.

JP Liz V1

MattS1 wrote: »

Virus has been eradicated in NZ. I suggested the same months back. Been proved right now. I don't know why this approach isn't what all countries take. Its pretty simple.

How, also in Lanzarote, surely when travel in and out starts back it might resurface

MerlinSouthDub

is_that_so wrote: »

2-3 is the commonly quoted range internationally. What exactly is the learning outcome here because it looks suspiciously like listen to me I'm right?

The learning outcome is to doubt calculations of R0 because they are based on assumptions and guesses. I don't know what R0 was, and neither do the modellers.

Calculations of the current reproductive rate when you have extensive testing are reliable because you have good data on infection rates. It will be interesting to monitor what the current reproductive rates are as restrictions are eased. In all countries so far, it appears to be staying below 1 which is very encouraging. Maintaining an extensive testing regime is absolutely essential.

charlie14

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Yup and going by Micheal Martin's comments yesterday if hes in office thats exactly what'll happen.
Tony pushes to cabinet, cabinet says we're only the caretakers so we'll do what you say.

A properly formed government will question more and make their own decisions

I wouldn`t be too sure on that.
If there is one thing politicians know it`s that plaudits can be short lived, but dirt would stick around if a government went completely against health advice and it went tits up.

Arghus

Arghus wrote: »

No. It's not "just enough" to lower the r0 level below 1. And it isn't enough, once achieved, to stop it. You've got to keep it there for a sustained period so the virus can't sustain itself. Just
merely getting it below one and saying "fck it" isn't enough.

The bad part is it doesn't take much to go from 1 to 1.1, which leads slowly and inexorably to more cases.

You misread my post. We got it to 0.5, so we can afford to relax restrictions and monitor and try to maintain it at or below 1. And allow people to live

0gac3yjefb5sv7

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

How, also in Lanzarote, surely when travel in and out starts back it might resurface

Test everyone entering the country after eradication. Not allowed enter if positive.

MattS1

MattS1 wrote: »

Test everyone entering the country after eradication. Not allowed enter if positive.

Much easier in a country that can only be entered via a small number of airports. Not so easy with busy sea ports and an invisible land border, which is crossed daily by many people

charlie14

MattS1 wrote: »

Test everyone entering the country after eradication. Not allowed enter if positive.

Would not really work. The only quick way to test and refuse entry is by taking their temperature. Very easy for someone to disguise that.
Swab and contact tracing would be the only real option. Having their mobile number would be a plus.

bb1234567

Oh god is the NZ comparison still going. What's done is done, the Irish government did the best they could with what they had, and it worked out relatively okay, no major disaster.

sonofenoch

UrbanFret wrote: »

Another wonderful contribution.

I hope it continues for all the other deaths in life when this is all done and dusted ....the poster can have it's own RIP forum..............if not it's very discriminatory to the dead

0gac3yjefb5sv7

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Much easier in a country that can only be entered via a small number of airports. Not so easy with busy sea ports and an invisible land border, which is crossed daily by many people

Easier yes, but not impossible...it's another approach that could have been taken here.

Beasty

UrbanFret wrote: »

Rip to everyone who ever died since the dawn of time and to those who will die in the future. That should just about cover it.:rolleyes:

No need for this sort of post

Away With The Fairies

bb1234567 wrote: »

Oh god is the NZ comparison still going. What's done is done, the Irish government did the best they could with what they had, and it worked out relatively okay, no major disaster.

I'm all fairness, someone mentioned that New Zealand eradicated it. Any mention of New Zealand will always have this same discussion. I just hope we learn from this and any future pandemics we have an all Ireland approach to new infections. An all Ireland approach would make closing borders easier. What happens if the next pandemic will be Ebola-2?

speckle

Meanwhile in china

https://mobile.twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1266139839650500614
ps. posting this does not mean I agree with their methods.

In my laypersons opinion we have to walk a fine balance out of Irelands restrictions and have to have the ability/wiggle room to change tach if needed.

Arghus

Deleted User wrote: »

You misread my post. We got it to 0.5, so we can afford to relax restrictions and monitor and try to maintain it at or below 1. And allow people to live

I don't want to split hairs with you, but you did say in that post that getting the R0 below 1 is enough to stop it -

Believe it or not, it’s not about stopping all infections. Just enough to lower the r0 below 1. That’s enough to stop it. No one(well almost no one) is arguing going back to completely ignoring it. But we must live

I'm arguing against that assertion with my response. I don't agree that "that's enough to stop it" - which is what you say.

I don't believe that we disagree with each other all that much really. You've provided extra information now - which I agree with - which provides extra nuance and information to the point you originally you made, but, with all due respect, I was just responding to the point that was originally made - so I disagree with the claim that I misread it, because I responded to what you wrote.

batman_oh

Arghus wrote: »

No. It's not "just enough" to lower the r0 level below 1. And it isn't enough, once achieved, to stop it. You've got to keep it there for a sustained period so the virus can't sustain itself. Just merely getting it below one and saying "fck it" isn't enough.

The bad part is it doesn't take much to go from 1 to 1.1, which leads slowly and inexorably to more cases.

Stop it how? All it will take us 1 person to arrive from anywhere to start it up again. Even if we continue as is until September you can't say its gone. Locking down forever isn't a solution either

Rob A. Bank

Trump shafts the WHO and fires the first shots in World War 3

Away With The Fairies

speckle wrote: »

Meanwhile in china

https://mobile.twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1266139839650500614
ps. posting this does not mean I agree with their methods.

In my laypersons opinion we have to walk a fine balance out of Irelands restrictions and have to have the ability/wiggle room to change tach if needed.

And that's from 11 new cases.

growleaves

speckle wrote: »

Meanwhile in china

https://mobile.twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1266139839650500614

In my laypersons opinion we have to walk a fine balance out of Irelands restrictions and have the ability/wiggle room to change tach if needed.

I love this comment in response to people in Green Land Victory City being welded inside a building:

'I thought the IFR and CFR were very very low. The published numbers don't warrant this level of action. What does China know that we don't.'

Touching how this guy thinks that Communist murderers care what the IFR and CFR are, and that he thinks they give out accurate numbers. Also, what 'warrants this level of action' you utter fool?

This is the new Western man: everything, but everything, is to be taken at face value all of the time.

fritzelly

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Trump shafts the WHO and fires the first shots in World War 3

It feels like something is missing from your post

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXmzwtjijnU

When using the youtube tag use just the video key

Kermit.de.frog

Trump just walked off.

Rob A. Bank

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Trump just walked off.

No off the cuff stuff.... a pity.

He continues his distractions from the clusterfu*k of his management of the pandemic in the states

sheepsh4gger

Drumpf just talked about China


https://youtu.be/-2C-rRZgnIU?t=2433


The CCP deserves this, they tried to ruin Hong Kong

An Ciarraioch

The R number in the North appears to be double that of the Republic:

https://twitter.com/LindaFStewart/status/1266442826272866305

bb1234567

UK has overtaken Italy in deaths per capita, will like alsoquickly overtake Spain in a few days if current trends continue.

Rob A. Bank

Distribution of laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the EU/EEA and the UK, as of 29 May 2020 @ 08:00 hrs. CET



Daily cases in Europe tailing off nicely... not sure what happened in ? France today with a big increase in reported cases.

Larger clickable version here :- https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea