How long before Irish reunification? (Part 2) Threadbans in OP

downcow

Fionn1952 wrote: »

Claims it is arrogant to use the term Our.....goes on to refer to NI as OUR wee country.

A bit of consistency please.

I am completely consistent.
I am very happy for you to refer to Roi as ORSC. just don’t include our country - and by our I mean every ni resident

RobMc59

downcow wrote: »

I have already said I think it is more likely the free movement will be sorted and everything will be hunky doray.
But if conflict breaks out I think it is inevitable loyalists will take the battle south.
You are on of the many on here who say the ira gained concessions by taking their battle to gb so seems logical loyalists take theirs to Roi.

From a terrorist warped mind it has a double bonus. It gets Roi and Eu to the table and also forces Roi to establish the hard border that they used threat of violence to prevent.
I guess the michael stone types won’t be attending funerals on the falls road but rather would be looking to visit Dublin cork or limerick.

I can see no logic to loyalists attacking British forces.

Agree 100%.Loyalist terrorists can view how republican terrorists had a certain amount of success with their campaign back in the day and as we've seen in the last few days it doesn't take much to gain a shed load of publicity for their cause.

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

I have already said I think it is more likely the free movement will be sorted and everything will be hunky doray.
But if conflict breaks out I think it is inevitable loyalists will take the battle south.
You are on of the many on here who say the ira gained concessions by taking their battle to gb so seems logical loyalists take theirs to Roi.

From a terrorist warped mind it has a double bonus. It gets Roi and Eu to the table and also forces Roi to establish the hard border that they used threat of violence to prevent.
I guess the michael stone types won’t be attending funerals on the falls road but rather would be looking to visit Dublin cork or limerick.

I can see no logic to loyalists attacking British forces.

Why are they threatening British Customs agents?

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

Agree 100%.Loyalist terrorists can view how republican terrorists had a certain amount of success with their campaign back in the day and as we've seen in the last few days it doesn't take much to gain a shed load of publicity for their cause.

What 'cause'?

Fionn1952

downcow wrote: »

I am completely consistent.
I am very happy for you to refer to Roi as ORSC. just don’t include our country - and by our I mean every ni resident

But in the event of Unification, Our Country would refer to both parts of this island, and every resident of the unified Ireland, so what exactly is your objection in referring to this island as our (including those from an Ulster Scots background) country in the context of a hypothetical unified state?

Perhaps you do mean every NI resident when you use OWC, but given the association between that term and the NI football supporters (I've detailed my experiences with this in the past), it certainly isn't such an inclusive term in general use. I wish you all the best if you're working on destigmatising the phrase, as I was unfortunate enough to have heard or read it many times in quite the opposite context, as a possessive term to the exclusion of the Irish/Nationalist community....often followed with a GSTQ or Ulster Is British type of thing tagged on.

FrancieBrady

Petition struggling to make it over the 120,000 mark...is that not really really bad and an indicator of the level of concern about the border?

I think Arlene has led belligerent Unionism up a hill again to die frankly. Can't get people onto the street and now can't get people to sign a fecking petition.

Fionn1952

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Petition struggling to make it over the 120,000 mark...is that not really really bad and an indicator of the level of concern about the border?

I think Arlene has led belligerent Unionism up a hill again to die frankly. Can't get people onto the street and now can't get people to sign a fecking petition.

In fairness Francie, not many petitions experience a great surge of support between midnight Friday and 10am Saturday morning.

FrancieBrady

Fionn1952 wrote: »

In fairness Francie, not many petitions experience a great surge of support between midnight Friday and 10am Saturday morning.

Would have thought people off for the weekend would have meant more.

Arlene painted a picture of huge unrest, I think she has been left with a bit of egg on her chin to be honest. Imagine an EU commission trying to marry that faltering petition to the idea of huge unrest and unhappiness. Touch of the 'Never Never Never, ah shure go' on about Arlene's protestations.

Junkyard Tom

downcow wrote: »

loyalists will take the battle south.

For what? Can you show us on the map where you think a viable unionist homeland can be carved out?

Fionn1952

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Would have thought people off for the weekend would have meant more.

Arlene painted a picture of huge unrest, I think she has been left with a bit of egg on her chin to be honest. Imagine an EU commission trying to marry that faltering petition to the idea of huge unrest and unhappiness. Touch of the 'Never Never Never, ah shure go' on about Arlene's protestations.

I'd usually expect a big surge of interest when a petition first hits mainstream awareness, which was certainly the case for this one, hitting 100k signatures in under a day.

I wouldn't be surprised to see another jump in signatures during the afternoon and early evening today, but weekend or not, the middle of the night certainly isn't when I'd expect any sort of surge on any petition.

One can discuss the futility of the petition easily, or how it is a very obvious move by the DUP to recover the votes they're looking like haemorrhaging, but in the context of your average UK Government petition, given the small size of NI relative to the general UK population, I don't think it would be fair or accurate to describe it as a faltering petition. Pointless, yes, an attempt to spare blushes by the DUP, absolutely, but numbers wise it is doing pretty well.

FrancieBrady

Fionn1952 wrote: »

I'd usually expect a big surge of interest when a petition first hits mainstream awareness, which was certainly the case for this one, hitting 100k signatures in under a day.

I wouldn't be surprised to see another jump in signatures during the afternoon and early evening today, but weekend or not, the middle of the night certainly isn't when I'd expect any sort of surge on any petition.

One can discuss the futility of the petition easily, or how it is a very obvious move by the DUP to recover the votes they're looking like haemorrhaging, but in the context of your average UK Government petition, given the small size of NI relative to the general UK population, I don't think it would be fair or accurate to describe it as a faltering petition. Pointless, yes, an attempt to spare blushes by the DUP, absolutely, but numbers wise it is doing pretty well.

Well I would Fionn and I'll continue to call it 'faltering' because I am doing so in the context of what would have happened before with similar Unionist angst such as the GFA and The Fleg protests.
I don't believe there is great unrest about the Sea Border and belligerent Unionism is going to die on a hill here...again.

Fionn1952

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Well I would Fionn and I'll continue to call it 'faltering' because I am doing so in the context of what would have happened before with similar Unionist angst such as the GFA and The Fleg protests.
I don't believe there is great unrest about the Sea Border and belligerent Unionism is going to die on a hill here...again.

I would disagree that there isn't great unrest surrounding the sea border, Francie. I don't think the petition is particularly reflective of the nature of that unrest (there's a great deal more unrest about staff being threatened than the political manoeuvring Arlene is attempting) and yes, I'd put the petition in the same sort of ballpark as I did the protest camp up at Twaddell; noisy but futile.

All that being said, it may, and indeed probably will go the same way as those surges of hardline Unionist outcry and unrest, but it is just unequivocally wrong to describe it as faltering at this point in time.

FrancieBrady

Fionn1952 wrote: »

I would disagree that there isn't great unrest surrounding the sea border, Francie. I don't think the petition is particularly reflective of the nature of that unrest (there's a great deal more unrest about staff being threatened than the political manoeuvring Arlene is attempting) and yes, I'd put the petition in the same sort of ballpark as I did the protest camp up at Twaddell; noisy but futile.

All that being said, it may, and indeed probably will go the same way as those surges of hardline Unionist outcry and unrest, but it is just unequivocally wrong to describe it as faltering at this point in time.

Well you have every right not to describe that way Fionn. But given the context I referred to, I would.

I am interested in how the belligerent Unionist voice is subsiding and I think the lack of a huge surge here (there are, we are told, almost a million Unionists and supposedly many more in Britain) is telling given that in living memory this 'voice' could shut down NI.

droidman123

It was disturbing and somewhat entertaining to see some of the posters the emptyheaded loyalists put up last week,"ulster is british" what schools if any,did these people attend.maybe it costs more at the printers to print "ulster is two thirds british" or do they actually know that only 6 of our beautiful counties are under occupation

Fionn1952

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Well you have every right not to describe that way Fionn. But given the context I referred to, I would.

I am interested in how the belligerent Unionist voice is subsiding and I think the lack of a huge surge here (there are, we are told, almost a million Unionists and supposedly many more in Britain) is telling given that in living memory this 'voice' could shut down NI.

But your context is Unionist outrage has faltered in the past, so it is likely this Unionist outrage will also falter (we agree up until this point), therefore it is already faltering. Doesn't logically follow to me.

The second part of your post is more reasonable (though again, I'd have to point out that 100k signatures in 24h IS a huge surge in the context of parliamentary petitions), and I'm glad that we've moved on from a society that enabled the likes of Drumcree of course. I just think you're premature in describing it as faltering and that undermines your pretty reasonable core point. I dunno, but the rush to point out failure before it has actually failed has a similar gleeful bent I'd find similarly distasteful to Downcow's comments on checking vaccination numbers before bed.

FrancieBrady

Fionn1952 wrote: »

But your context is Unionist outrage has faltered in the past, so it is likely this Unionist outrage will also falter (we agree up until this point), therefore it is already faltering. Doesn't logically follow to me.

The second part of your post is more reasonable (though again, I'd have to point out that 100k signatures in 24h IS a huge surge in the context of parliamentary petitions), and I'm glad that we've moved on from a society that enabled the likes of Drumcree of course. I just think you're premature in describing it as faltering and that undermines your pretty reasonable core point. I dunno, but the rush to point out failure before it has actually failed has a similar gleeful bent I'd find similarly distasteful to Downcow's comments on checking vaccination numbers before bed.

I have no doubt it will limp on as people sign it out of a sense of duty...it's why the DUP get most of their vote after all.
And my context is not Unionist outrage faltering, it is Unionist outrage failing to hit it's target and utterly failing and also the counterproductive aspect.

Belligerent Unionism is convincing Unionism itself that it has failed and that it's time is up IMO. Hence the swing to the Alliance.
And you can bet your bottom dollar I am 'gleeful' about the failure of 'belligerent Unionism' in bed and out of it.

Fionn1952

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I have no doubt it will limp on as people sign it out of a sense of duty...it's why the DUP get most of their vote after all.
And my context is not Unionist outrage faltering, it is Unionist outrage failing to hit it's target and utterly failing and also the counterproductive aspect.

Belligerent Unionism is convincing Unionism itself that it has failed and that it's time is up IMO. Hence the swing to the Alliance.
And you can bet your bottom dollar I am 'gleeful' about the failure of 'belligerent Unionism' in bed and out of it.

But Unionist outrage's target was to get a petition to the point were it would be considered for debate by British Parliament....that target was achieved in under a day. By the measure of the objective of any government petition, it has been a success.

The success may be futile, but the issues surrounding Brexit and the DUP'S failures have led to a swing to the more extreme politics of Jim Allister and his TUV, not to a more moderate position. The Alliance surge seems to be at the cost of the Green Party and PBP (at least in terms of seats/representation) rather than DUP supporters moving to a more moderate position. The swing to TUV certainly doesn't paint the picture that, 'Belligerent Unionism is convincing Unionism itself that it has failed and that it's time is up'.

bilbot79

RobMc59 wrote: »

Agree 100%.Loyalist terrorists can view how republican terrorists had a certain amount of success with their campaign back in the day and as we've seen in the last few days it doesn't take much to gain a shed load of publicity for their cause.

There really shouldn't be a campaign though. We are all signed up to majority self determination now.

The UK will wax lyrical about the Falkland Islanders and their right to self determination and it should be no different here. If Loyalists and Unionists were to create a campaign of violence to remain with the UK when a majority wanted a UI (if that were to happen). It really would be unjustified.

Violence in this case really would be just criminal regardless of the feelings of Loyalists and they should be held to account under the law in that case. Better a non-violent 'change isn't worth it' campaign to keep the moderates from switching.

I for one am not definitely in favour of a UI at all costs and before voting in favour I'd want to see a significant majority around me also in favour and unlike Brexit I would actually want the decision to hinge on something other than patriotic identity.

Unionists need not panic, it's not happening in this lifetime, it's the last thing the Irish government wants, not necessarily the thing that every Northern Irish catholic wants and the status quo of being in both the UK and NI is probably yet another privilege NI people have over everyone else.

FrancieBrady

Fionn1952 wrote: »

But Unionist outrage's target was to get a petition to the point were it would be considered for debate by British Parliament....that target was achieved in under a day. By the measure of the objective of any government petition, it has been a success.

The success may be futile, but the issues surrounding Brexit and the DUP'S failures have led to a swing to the more extreme politics of Jim Allister and his TUV, not to a more moderate position. The Alliance surge seems to be at the cost of the Green Party and PBP (at least in terms of seats/representation) rather than DUP supporters moving to a more moderate position. The swing to TUV certainly doesn't paint the picture that, 'Belligerent Unionism is convincing Unionism itself that it has failed and that it's time is up'.

Once upon a recent time, Unionism could bring NI to a standstill..now it is having 'victories' because it managed to get people to sign a petition. A petition organised by a party leader talking about huge unrest and hardship and all the other ranting.
I am not seeing a 'victory' here Fionn are you suggesting that people are logging onto the petition and saying...'ah they've reached the target I won't bother signing'?
And yes belligerent Unionists have migrated to the more belligerent TUV but they are also migrating to the UUP and Alliance.

The 'silence'(the slow signing of the petition) here is speaking in a higher volume to me anyway.

Fionn1952

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Once upon a recent time, Unionism could bring NI to a standstill..now it is having 'victories' because it managed to get people to sign a petition. A petition organised by a party leader talking about huge unrest and hardship and all the other ranting.
I am not seeing a 'victory' here Fionn are you suggesting that people are logging onto the petition and saying...'ah they've reached the target I won't bother signing'?
And yes belligerent Unionists have migrated to the more belligerent TUV but they are also migrating to the UUP and Alliance.

The 'silence'(the slow signing of the petition) here is speaking in a higher volume to me anyway.

We're both very glad that we don't have the oration of the likes of Paisley Snr and the divided, paranoid society that enabled more people than have signed that petition to be mobilised out onto the streets, we're in total agreement on this.

But we're talking about a petition here, and can measure its success by comparing it to other UK petitions....by that standard it absolutely hasn't been slow - it has reached the point by which a British government petition is deemed a success in a day. It has also jumped past that 120k mark you suggested it was faltering before an hour ago (Up to 123k now). I'd be surprised if it didn't reach 150k in the next few hours to be honest.

I think the petition is ultimately futile (because ultimately the Tory government don't give a toss about the people of NI), but taking a, 'nothing to see here' approach approach and pretending it is just a handful of nutters like the Belfast City Hall flag protestors is pushing way too hard to marginalise what is clearly a significant number of people who (rightly or wrongly) have a concern.

Likewise trying to paint polling showing the DUP down 4 seats and the TUV up four seats as Belligerent Unionism turning towards a more moderate position.....well that just doesn't add up. UUP haven't showed any change, Alliance have made moderate gains (at the expense of Greens and PBP) and TUV have made moderate gains. It shows a strong polarisation within hardline Unionism, not a move to the more moderate.

FrancieBrady

Fionn1952 wrote: »

We're both very glad that we don't have the oration of the likes of Paisley Snr and the divided, paranoid society that enabled more people than have signed that petition to be mobilised out onto the streets, we're in total agreement on this.

But we're talking about a petition here, and can measure its success by comparing it to other UK petitions....by that standard it absolutely hasn't been slow - it has reached the point by which a British government petition is deemed a success in a day. It has also jumped past that 120k mark you suggested it was faltering before an hour ago (Up to 123k now). I'd be surprised if it didn't reach 150k in the next few hours to be honest.

I think the petition is ultimately futile (because ultimately the Tory government don't give a toss about the people of NI), but taking a, 'nothing to see here' approach approach and pretending it is just a handful of nutters like the Belfast City Hall flag protestors is pushing way too hard to marginalise what is clearly a significant number of people who (rightly or wrongly) have a concern.

Likewise trying to paint polling showing the DUP down 4 seats and the TUV up four seats as Belligerent Unionism turning towards a more moderate position.....well that just doesn't add up. UUP haven't showed any change, Alliance have made moderate gains (at the expense of Greens and PBP) and TUV have made moderate gains. It shows a strong polarisation within hardline Unionism, not a move to the more moderate.

Foster looked for a massive show of support with the petition Fionn. Set the number signing against the number of Unionists and the stated 'unrest and concern' and something doesn't tally.
Also you are looking at one poll, happy to agree there has been a gain for the TUV, but I am talking about the general trend since the GFA.
Unionism has fractured, and there doesn't seem to be anyone emerging who can unite it. They have tried the UUP, switched to the DUP and now, well we'll see where the vote goes.

IRISHSPORTSGUY

downcow wrote: »

It’s the arrogance of your use of ‘OUR’ that will ensure the divisiveness will continue.
It’s like who Kim jong-un would refer you South Korea or the Russians to Ukraine.
You are living 100 years ago when you use language like that.

Keep up the good work. Your attitude helps OWC to go from strength to strength

But N.I (Ireland) is our country. As much as it belongs to the people of a British tradition.

I want a positive campaign when the Unification Referendum occurs.
We have a lot in common with Ulster-Scots, in fact if you go back to the Celts we are them and they are us. Ireland is one of the wealthiest countries in the world, meanwhile Northern Ireland has become a shambles since partition - we can change that.

Also, I think it's important going forward, as part of the unification process, that we in the south have to acknowledge our role in British history more. We seem to have airbrushed a lot of that away. How many people are aware that a third of Wellington's Army at Waterloo was Irish, for example?

BonnieSituation

Patches oHoulihan wrote: »

What threats?
More like stating a likelihood.
Politicians in Dublin have/had no say in paramilitary violence unlike their British counterparts.

You're looking at things from your British viewpoint. Think about it from both sides. The loyalist paramilitaries like a bit of romance as well dont they.


As for the romance of a "United Ireland" I think its unworkable at this point. There's too much division. Loyalists will never accept being ruled from Dublin and we won't even go into the cost.

Its becoming more obvious that Boris doesn't want the problem either and its frankly cringe material watching Foster desperately trying to cling on.

Nobody wants violence. Well no rational person anyway.
There has to be another way.

The thereat of Loyalist violence is no reason to not push things forward. If anything it should be an incentive.

The Unionist veto is gone. We have to start acting like that.

BonnieSituation

IRISHSPORTSGUY wrote: »

Because of the never ending shenanigans about Article 16/a land border/sea border, a border poll is looking more and more likely to be called by the day.

Michael Martin is absolutely the right man to be Taoiseach at this time, I'm grateful that the Shinners didn't gain power. They are too divisive. This is about uniting OUR country. It can be done, we can win the referendum.

He absolutely is not. One of the worst possible people to hold the office at this time.

Dithering is the main play he has.

RobMc59

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What 'cause'?

The removal of those they seem to view as invaders.Its big boy pants time for the EU now Francie.
I don't condone any form of threatening behaviour by the way.

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

The removal of those they seem to view as invaders.Its big boy pants time for the EU now Francie.
I don't condone any form of threatening behaviour by the way.

'British' customs officers are 'invaders'? Okie doke.

p.s. It isn't hard to see what you think of this threat in your 'big boy pants' challenge to the 'EU'. Your excitement at the prospect of violence is palpable.

maccored

RobMc59 wrote: »

Agree 100%.Loyalist terrorists can view how republican terrorists had a certain amount of success with their campaign back in the day and as we've seen in the last few days it doesn't take much to gain a shed load of publicity for their cause.

just shows unionism hasnt a clue where its going atm

IRISHSPORTSGUY

BonnieSituation wrote: »

He absolutely is not. One of the worst possible people to hold the office at this time.

Dithering is the main play he has.

So who leads the official unification campaign then?

Leo, whose party could very well be divided on the subject? On the basis of economic grounds, but there are also a few quiet partitionists in FG.
The political wing of the IRA being left, right and center is considerably less likely to swing Alliance voters.

It has to be Fianna Fail and by extension Michael.

Brendan Bendar

I’d say the famous ‘Black Mountain’ might have an input.

Bit of smoke drifting from that area, it’s said.

FrancieBrady

The huge mistake Arlene and the DUP made. Backing those that knew exactly what they were doing and the implications. If Unionism cannot accept they were led over the cliff by these people it is doomed tbh. Instead of blaming Dublin, SF, The EU, etc etc they need to blame the correct people, the people who knew what they were doing.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-55952459