How long before Irish reunification? (Part 2) Threadbans in OP

Fionn1952

downcow wrote: »

This sounds like you are describing the fig leaf that gfa give to republicans

If you want to compare your government to, and place them on the equivalent level to a terrorist organisation, that's your prerogative, Downcow.

Many in my community already view them as such.

maccored

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

As Mr Brady keeps saying...”Have you a link to that”.

Are you pretending unionism and the uvf arent linked? Try harder.

downcow

This is worth a few minutes of listening with an open mind. I think this politician calmly describes what is going on. From 9:50 for a few mins.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000rwxb

FrancieBrady

Not much sympathy in the UK media for where Unionism has negotiated itself to. Nor much in the way of hope for the Tories rescuing them.

The DUP’s stupidity is truly bottomless because no Irish republican war forced them to embrace Brexit and partition the union. Democratic Unionists weren’t, like so many settlers of the British empire, abandoned by the Tory metropolis when the price of maintaining colonial rule grew too high. Rather, they egged Tory England on as it went berserk. They hope now that the EU’s brief threat to impose a vaccine border in Ireland will save them.

But there’s no way out. Now, as always, the choice is a soft Brexit or no Brexit, which they ruled out; a border on the island of Ireland, which the world will not accept; or a border in the Irish Sea, which cuts unionists off from the rest of the UK and forces them to integrate with the Republic and the EU.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/06/ireland-conservatives-dup-union-brexit

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

This is worth a few minutes of listening with an open mind. I think this politician calmly describes what is going on. From 9:50 for a few mins.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000rwxb

Hannan's response to the long list of problems Brexit has caused already- for Hauliers, Fishermen, Cheesemakers tells you all you need to know about his stance.

'But what abut our vaccine rollout?' is just unfathomably childish and stupid as an answer to the suffering of those people above.

The Tories are not coming to the rescue downcow I'm afraid.

Natterjack from Kerry

The thread title has the same neat twist to it as Al Gore's joke introducing himself as 'the former next president of the United States'.

Irish reunification was something aspired to by some once upon a time, but the time of looking at is as a possibility, much less as a when not an if question, is redundant.

The title question has a nice hypotheticality to it, and is interesting to explore, even if its real validity is probably more correctly phrased as 'when did the possibility of Irish reunification end?'. Or even - 'post 1922, was Irish reunification already a dead duck, and never a real possibility ?'.

There really is no excuse now though for anyone still considering it truly possible anymore, and not realising that it is a historical consideration, and not part of the future of either the Irish or UK jurisdictions on the island.

FrancieBrady

More grist to the mill for those unconvinced about where we are heading. If it's to be decided by the middle ground this will be hard to ignore. Stay on an inexorably sinking ship or jump?

Households in the Republic have €3,800 (£3,300) more disposable income annually than those in Northern Ireland, new research shows.

This equates to a 12% gap after accounting for price differences in both areas.

Life expectancy is also now 1.4 years longer in the south, according to the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/republic-beats-northern-ireland-for-life-expectancy-and-households-are-3300-better-off-40061262.html

Sam Russell

FrancieBrady wrote: »

More grist to the mill for those unconvinced about where we are heading. If it's to be decided by the middle ground this will be hard to ignore. Stay on an inexorably sinking ship or jump?

Households in the Republic have €3,800 (£3,300) more disposable income annually than those in Northern Ireland, new research shows.

This equates to a 12% gap after accounting for price differences in both areas.

Life expectancy is also now 1.4 years longer in the south, according to the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/republic-beats-northern-ireland-for-life-expectancy-and-households-are-3300-better-off-40061262.html

So unification will occur 1.4 years sooner than we expected.

Natterjack from Kerry

FrancieBrady wrote: »

More grist to the mill for those unconvinced about where we are heading. If it's to be decided by the middle ground this will be hard to ignore. Stay on an inexorably sinking ship or jump?



https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/republic-beats-northern-ireland-for-life-expectancy-and-households-are-3300-better-off-40061262.html

Would agree. And think, as I posted above, any serious interest in the south for taking the north on board has evaporated decades ago. There was a broad romatic idea of unification, but 20 years after peace of a sort, that NI still hasnt united in anyway, or resolved its fundamental societal and economic issues, has convinced those in the south that even as a romantic take it or leave it, and if those in the north were seriously in favour of reunification, then take it, is now more of a 'who needs to adopt a problem state? No thanks' conclusion.

Fionn1952

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

Would agree. And think, as I posted above, any serious interest in the south for taking the north on board has evaporated decades ago. There was a broad romatic idea of unification, but 20 years after peace of a sort, that NI still hasnt united in anyway, or resolved its fundamental societal and economic issues, has convinced those in the south that even as a romantic take it or leave it, and if those in the north were seriously in favour of reunification, then take it, is now more of a 'who needs to adopt a problem state? No thanks' conclusion.

Certainly that take wouldn't be totally unheard of, but far from the norm. The most common objection I've come across is more of the, 'I like the idea, but how much is it going to cost' take on things.

If any serious interest in the south ended decades ago, can you explain why polling has ALWAYS come down with a majority on the, 'I would like to see Unification' side of things?

Like I said, that support can drop when a non-specific cost is added to the question, but even if 99% of those who support the idea of unification wanted to know how much it would cost before they would vote for it, that by no means supports your position that the majority have no interest at all, and would come to the, 'who needs to adopt a problem state' conclusion you're purporting the majority in the South have come to.

I'd love to see any source at all that puts anywhere close to a majority holding that position.

Fionn1952

Sam Russell wrote: »

So unification will occur 1.4 years sooner than we expected.

Are.....are you suggesting Nordies go to Ireland when they die?!

I can hear it now, 'live a good Republican life and we'll all be together in the Great Big Ireland in the Sky.'

jm08

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

Would agree. And think, as I posted above, any serious interest in the south for taking the north on board has evaporated decades ago. There was a broad romatic idea of unification, but 20 years after peace of a sort, that NI still hasnt united in anyway, or resolved its fundamental societal and economic issues, has convinced those in the south that even as a romantic take it or leave it, and if those in the north were seriously in favour of reunification, then take it, is now more of a 'who needs to adopt a problem state? No thanks' conclusion.

That has always been the Fine Gael stance since one of its founding fathers agreed to the border so as to reduce the south's share of Britain's national debt.

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

More grist to the mill for those unconvinced about where we are heading. If it's to be decided by the middle ground this will be hard to ignore. Stay on an inexorably sinking ship or jump?



https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/republic-beats-northern-ireland-for-life-expectancy-and-households-are-3300-better-off-40061262.html

Nice statistics are hard to beat.
Lies, damned lies, and statistics

downcow

Help me here. Let’s set those unionist bigots like me aside for a moment.

If quality of life is higher in Roi, how come many irish nationalists want ni to stay in the UK?
And how come so many of those ‘moderate’ alliance voters want ni to stay in UK?

maccored

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

As Mr Brady keeps saying...”Have you a link to that”.

There is the following

On Wednesday, David Campbell, the chairman of the Loyalist Communities Council (LCC), which has the backing of paramilitary groups, said it may be necessary "to fight physically to maintain our freedoms within the UK."

Fionn1952

downcow wrote: »

Nice statistics are hard to beat.
Lies, damned lies, and statistics

Aye, the Belfast Telegraph is known for it's rabid Republican bias alright...

Any counterpoint, or are you going with the fingers in the ears and shouting, 'fake news' approach?

The most recent Economist Quality of Life index (they call it the where to be born index) has Ireland at 12th and the UK as a whole at 27th.

The most recent figures I can see from any source are from the United Nations, which ranks Ireland 2nd based on average longevity, education and income. The UK comes in at 13 on this list.

With that in mind, clearly the differing rankings depending on which body publishes it implies some degree of subjectivity, but consistently across all of these studies, Ireland ranks higher than the UK. I can't recall a single one in a very long time that has ranked the UK as having a higher quality of life than Ireland.

Maybe it's all a big anti-British conspiracy, but the studies still all show Britain to have a good standard across the QoL measuring points, so not TOO big a conspiracy. Just one to make Britain look pretty good, but not quite as good as Ireland?

downcow wrote: »

Help me here. Let’s set those unionist bigots like me aside for a moment.

If quality of life is higher in Roi, how come many irish nationalists want ni to stay in the UK?
And how come so many of those ‘moderate’ alliance voters want ni to stay in UK?

Because change is inherently scary, Downcow. No one (well no one worth taking seriously) is suggesting that Ireland having a higher QoL index means NI is a third world country. If higher quality of life was the only deciding factor, why are more Unionists not pushing to leave the UK and joining up with Norway or Switzerland!?

There are economies of scale questions for many people around the cost of maintaining NI - 60 million people who are slightly less well off can easier afford something than 5 million slightly more well off people.

There are also people concerned with a return of violence in the North.

There is also no guarantee that unification would instantly propel NI up to the same QoL index as Ireland (in fact it would be impossible to do so, it would be a much more gradual thing).

All of these things (and a heap more) make it very clear that it is entirely logical that Ireland can have a higher quality of life than the UK but that this alone would not be enough to convince everyone of the merits of unification, particularly among the moderate Alliance voters, many of whom grew up in Unionist backgrounds and feel cultural ties to the UK.

Just to be clear, I'm not taking a position on any of the above concerns with this post, just highlighting that they are concerns felt (rightly or wrongly) by some people that could be significant motivating factors.

jh79

downcow wrote: »

Help me here. Let’s set those unionist bigots like me aside for a moment.

If quality of life is higher in Roi, how come many irish nationalists want ni to stay in the UK?
And how come so many of those ‘moderate’ alliance voters want ni to stay in UK?

Quality of life is higher in NI for those that work due to higher % in the PS.

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

Help me here. Let’s set those unionist bigots like me aside for a moment.

If quality of life is higher in Roi, how come many irish nationalists want ni to stay in the UK?
And how come so many of those ‘moderate’ alliance voters want ni to stay in UK?

They 'think' they are better off clearly. But the data shows they aren't.

What Unionism needs to realise is that if it gets worse (which it will) do they want the penny dropping ahead of a poll?

Natterjack from Kerry

FrancieBrady wrote: »

They 'think' they are better off clearly. But the data shows they aren't.

What Unionism needs to realise is that if it gets worse (which it will) do they want the penny dropping ahead of a poll?

Sorry, you arent seriously suggesting that with all the bitterness and violence and entrenched positions on two poles, that Northern Ireland would decide it future according to a few points of GNP or abstract international standard of living indices ? If you are, it shows no understanding of the issue at all. And the north is now a very advantaged part of the UK with its special access to Ireland and the EU. The arrangement needles some hard core unionists on an instinctive level, but as the teething problems fail, they will be quite happy and benefit greatly from their dual status.

FrancieBrady

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

Sorry, you arent seriously suggesting that with all the bitterness and violence and entrenched positions on two poles, that Northern Ireland would decide it future according to a few points of GNP or abstract international standard of living indices ? If you are, it shows no understanding of the issue at all. And the north is now a very advantaged part of the UK with its special access to Ireland and the EU. The arrangement needles some hard core unionists on an instinctive level, but as the teething problems fail, they will be quite happy and benefit greatly from their dual status.

No, I think it will help sway middle grounders, where the battle needs to be won. The 'middle ground' that wants no part of the bitterness and entrenchment.

68% loss of trade in the UK will negate any benefits NI's status brings in my opinion.

Natterjack from Kerry

FrancieBrady wrote: »

No, I think it will help sway middle grounders, where the battle needs to be won. The 'middle ground' that wants no part of the bitterness and entrenchment.

68% loss of trade in the UK will negate any benefits NI's status brings in my opinion.

There's a battle ????

FrancieBrady

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

There's a battle ????

There's entrenchment and bitterness in the middle ground? I think not.

Junkyard Tom

We are discussing the beach houses while a tsunami approaches. When the dust begins to settle from the type of idiotic Brexit the Tories and DUP have inflicted on the UK the DUP will shut their mouths and keep their heads down as England suffers and Scotland heads for the gate.

Natterjack from Kerry

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

We are discussing the beach houses while a tsunami approaches. When the dust begins to settle from the type of idiotic Brexit the Tories and DUP have inflicted on the UK the DUP will shut their mouths and keep their heads down as England suffers and Scotland heads for the gate.

They will indeed keep their heads down as the benefits acrue. NI will be the part of the UK to truly benefit economically from Brexit, despite it not being the intention of the little Englanders with their old Empire flag waving dreams.

Junkyard Tom

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

They will indeed keep their heads down as the benefits acrue.

Relative to Scotland and Wales it probably will be less affected but that is hardly a benefit.

Either way, people in the northeast have one way of permanently securing their future free of the spitefulness/hatred of the DUP and their ilk and that's by cutting them off from their patrons in London via a United Ireland.

Brexit for the DUP was an opportunity to spitefully roll back the easements that followed the Good Friday Agreement, they made a play for a hard border to return in our country and should never ever be trusted again.

jm08

downcow wrote: »

Help me here. Let’s set those unionist bigots like me aside for a moment.

If quality of life is higher in Roi, how come many irish nationalists want ni to stay in the UK?
And how come so many of those ‘moderate’ alliance voters want ni to stay in UK?

I spoke to a man from a nationalist background who thought it was better for NI to remain in the UK because ''loyalists would destroy the country.''


From the Alliance point of view (and Greens) - in a UI they could possibly be in a Coalition Government with either FG or FF (as could SDLP). Far better than begging for a few minutes air time in the HoC. They could do far more for the people of NI being in Goverment in the Republic.

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

No, I think it will help sway middle grounders, where the battle needs to be won. The 'middle ground' that wants no part of the bitterness and entrenchment.

68% loss of trade in the UK will negate any benefits NI's status brings in my opinion.

The point you are missing is that the Eu is soon going to ease 90% of the issues ni is facing about free movement. And when that happens we will be in the most beneficial place in Eu.
I would like to get you the quote from tv this morning (I might try) but O’Neill shocked me by saying something along these lines.
Onwards and upwards

Mad_maxx

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

They will indeed keep their heads down as the benefits acrue. NI will be the part of the UK to truly benefit economically from Brexit, despite it not being the intention of the little Englanders with their old Empire flag waving dreams.

Northern Ireland can benefit and have the best of both worlds but unionists are vehemently opposed to the present terms which allow that kind of " best of both worlds " unique advantage

FrancieBrady

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Northern Ireland can benefit and have the best of both worlds but unionists are vehemently opposed to the present terms which allow that kind of " best of both worlds " unique advantage

With the DUP dangling threats over the Protocol in 2024 it will stifle inward investment of any note. I don't think sandwich makers setting up is going to cut it as the UK economy goes in the bin.
If that 68% fall in exports isn't a warning to unionism to shut up and put up, I don't know what is. Their strategic thinking in the last 30 years has been abysmal.

RobMc59

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

They will indeed keep their heads down as the benefits acrue. NI will be the part of the UK to truly benefit economically from Brexit, despite it not being the intention of the little Englanders with their old Empire flag waving dreams.

We can see it already with people like Michelle O'Neil very comfortable being part of the British establishment.