How long before Irish reunification? (Part 2) Threadbans in OP

Junkyard Tom

maestroamado wrote: »

So for me we now have a situation where half of the people in NI want to be British and in EU,the other half say they want to join Republic and be in EU.

I'd estimate that we have about 40% tops who will vote to remain in the UK regardless.

The issue is people from a non-Unionist background who work in the civil service and who are afraid of losing free healthcare might stay at home for a border poll for fear of their material situation worsening.

What it requires for a UI vote to pass in the north, in my view, is that the north's economy synchronises with the south and the south's public healthcare arrangements go free/universal.

It will take time.

FrancieBrady

JasonStatham wrote: »

Yes, I saw that as well. I didn't think that prediction was realistic before Brexit.

But now I think a lot of people are taking a UI more seriously. Gerry Adams will probably see a UI in his lifetime.

The events of 2016 (Brexit vote) will cone to be seen the same way as the events of 1916...the turning point.

FrancieBrady

Not looking good for anyone hoping for wide ranging changes, seems to be the wide ranging opinion this is a result of the UK sitting on it's hands, as suspected:

Sources say the EU will probably grant an extension to the three- and six-month grace periods (for Export Health Cert and sausage-ban exemptions respectively), but not much beyond that

Another diplomat says larger member states, preoccupied with vaccine rollouts, are waking up to a grave situation regarding the Protocol. They believe the UK is using the Article 16 affair to provide cover for the poor preparedness of both the UK govt and GB traders into NI

https://mobile.twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1358818139023282181

Dyr

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Why?

Northern Ireland is now Schroedingers province, both inside and outside the Common market. A hard brexit would have been SFs secretly desired outcome as it would force people to think in terms of a binary choice on the border, now they can be both.

If Brexit goes badly south then maybe a border poll comes back on the agenda but right now the Vaccine rollout will have Nordies looking across the border and thinking its 2-0 to Brexit.

FrancieBrady

Bambi wrote: »

Northern Ireland is now Schroedingers province, both inside and outside the Common market. A hard brexit would have been SFs secretly desired outcome as it would force people to think in terms of a binary choice on the border, now they can be both.

If Brexit goes badly south then maybe a border poll comes back on the agenda but right now the Vaccine rollout will have Nordies looking across the border and thinking its 2-0 to Brexit.

Well the latest poll, conducted while all the above was ongoing, is not matching what is going on in your head, sadly. The trend is definitely not heading in favour of the Union.

Poots getting caught playing politics with lives is not going to make people suddenly think we are more secure in this arrangement.

rdwight

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The events of 2016 (Brexit vote) will cone to be seen the same way as the events of 1916...the turning point.

You're referring to the Easter Rising? The turning point for partition: before the Rising partition was probable, afterwards it was inevitable.

FrancieBrady

rdwight wrote: »

You're referring to the Easter Rising? The turning point for partition: before the Rising partition was probable, afterwards it was inevitable.

You can look at it like that, and I have no doubt a Unionist/partitionist would. But the 'experiment' was dealt it's final hand in 2016 and Unionism played it abysmally.

Dyr

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Well the latest poll, conducted while all the above was ongoing, is not matching what is going on in your head, sadly. The trend is definitely not heading in favour of the Union.

Poots getting caught playing politics with lives is not going to make people suddenly think we are more secure in this arrangement.

Do you mean the trend where a majority are still polling as preferring to remain in the UK

Will take a significant event to change that, and both FF and FG are determined to prevent such a change.

FrancieBrady

Bambi wrote: »

Do you mean the trend where a majority are still polling as preferring to remain in the UK

Will take a significant event to change that, and both FF and FG are determined to prevent such a change.

Yes, an ever decreasing majority. Fg and FF will do what they always have done Bambi, they'll sniff the winds of change and clamber on to the bandwagon come the apposite moment.

rdwight

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You can look at it like that, and I have no doubt a Unionist/partitionist would. But the 'experiment' was dealt it's final hand in 2016 and Unionism played it abysmally.

Agreed. Who was it that said the unionists have never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity?

Regardless, demographics will deliver a united ireland in the next ten or fifteen years despite the bests efforts of the DUP and despite being delayed by the IRA's "armed struggle".

FrancieBrady

rdwight wrote: »

Agreed. Who was it that said the unionists have never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity?

Regardless, demographics will deliver a united ireland in the next ten or fifteen years despite the bests efforts of the DUP and despite being delayed by the IRA's "armed struggle".

I personally think the bleed away from Unionism will continue. I genuinely believe many moderate unionists are convinced that there is no future in a Tory or Labour UK. Brexit just sped up the process.

Doesn't really matter where the nationalist vote goes, SF or SDLP, it can even go to the Alliance, as long as it goes for a UI.

FrancieBrady

Gove pulling de horns in, so to speak.

https://www.businesspost.ie/uk/northern-ireland-protocol-does-not-have-to-be-ditched-says-gove-2e5d71d8

maestroamado

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

I'd estimate that we have about 40% tops who will vote to remain in the UK regardless.

The issue is people from a non-Unionist background who work in the civil service and who are afraid of losing free healthcare might stay at home for a border poll for fear of their material situation worsening.

What it requires for a UI vote to pass in the north, in my view, is that the north's economy synchronises with the south and the south's public healthcare arrangements go free/universal.

It will take time.

Well Michael Martin set-up HSE 20 years ago to do as you suggest and it hasn't happened, Leo and few others also had a go and failed.
Its unlikely we will ever have free health care unless we get outside advice on how to do.
i agree with synchronises economies but who will pay for the 10 years it will likely take.

Natterjack from Kerry

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

I'd estimate that we have about 40% tops who will vote to remain in the UK regardless.

The issue is people from a non-Unionist background who work in the civil service and who are afraid of losing free healthcare might stay at home for a border poll for fear of their material situation worsening.

What it requires for a UI vote to pass in the north, in my view, is that the north's economy synchronises with the south and the south's public healthcare arrangements go free/universal.

It will take time.

It will take more than all the above though, and an element that seems constantly overlooked : approval in the south.
The wider Irish public has not seriously considered this issue since the 30s as it gave up on the idea and settled for the status quo. Most have been happy with the last 20 years with some semblance of normality in NI. Adopting NI and all its problems will be in no way attractive when if the different perspective of it as a live prospect arose - a totally different one for it as a hypothetical.
This goes way beyond the economic alignement of the north. NI is still a deeply troubled society, and rocking the boat there, is one that people in the south might quite likely conclude is not even worth touching with a barge pole.

downcow

jm08 wrote: »

I looked up the rules on UK Gov. website:


Health certificate guarantees

The animals to be imported must be accompanied by

• a valid health certificate signed by an Official Veterinarian (OV) appointed by the appropriate authority in Great Britain. The necessary health certificate and the conditions therein required for export from GB to NI can be viewed here(external link opens in a new window / tab).

The info here is quite good. You should read it. https://www.daera-ni.gov.uk/articles/cattle-imports-gb

Thanks for that. So was there anything I stated that was not 100% correct?

downcow

maestroamado wrote: »

So for me we now have a situation where half of the people in NI want to be British and in EU,the other half say they want to join Republic and be in EU.
Its a crazy situation and i expect when Covid settels either we will have border deviding NI and Republic or there will be process for border poll whenever.
I expect the EU will have to work on this one as asking British to have internal checks cannot work. Obviously NI politicians had no input into creating Irish sea border checks..

Where did you get those stats. My understanding was that there were fairly similar numbers wanting to stay in Eu and wanting to go

FrancieBrady

Tony Connelly has rarely been wrong on the mood in the EU and has his finger on the right sources. They are telling him there is no desire to extend the 'grace periods' either.

Wonder what the DUP's next move is?

https://mobile.twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1358881723556253709

maestroamado

downcow wrote: »

Where did you get those stats. My understanding was that there were fairly similar numbers wanting to stay in Eu and wanting to go

No stats its just personal observation, i am of opinion all parties in NI wanted free trade with Republic and EU. I actually never though of what a border between Mainland UK and NI would mean as i never thought it was a runner.
Jam on both sides as they say...

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Tony Connelly has rarely been wrong on the mood in the EU and has his finger on the right sources. They are telling him there is no desire to extend the 'grace periods' either.

Wonder what the DUP's next move is?

https://mobile.twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1358881723556253709

I don’t know who mr diplomat is but I hope he is right. I hope there is no extension of grace period. That would just be a cop out. It needs dealt with like big boys and girls

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

I don’t know who mr diplomat is but I hope he is right. I hope there is no extension of grace period. That would just be a cop out. It needs dealt with like big boys and girls

Yes, seems they are going to pressure the UK to get the finger out.

The view is that the Protocol hasn’t even been fully implemented by UK, also the prerequisite of preparation by business is lacking, so it seems “premature to already discuss lengthening the grace periods”.

Liberalbrehon

All hypothetical but the way world is going, who knows.
The Tory ERG will engineer a situation to remove NI from UK. They will start by reducing the transfer to NI, beginning at the end of year for the next fiscal cycle. They will begin to make life more and more financially difficult for Unionists all the while pretending they want them. They will come up with creative ways to dilute the Unionist vote over next three years.
Boris will call a border poll, the question is whether it is just before or after the next GE in UK. Gut says before so if poll goes to UI, the DUP will be finished as party, much to Tory party delight. DUP have been thorn in side of Westminister for decades. If poll goes to stay in UK, then Tories can say they supported the union with Ulster unionists. With life in NI looking bleaker and bleaker, the Unionist young will move to mainland. I think nationalist youth will hang around with access to the Republic. Poll vote 55-45 to UI. Then the fun begins.
Will unionists emigrate to England, Scotland, stay around as minority, no choice for many, hardliners start a terrorist campaign? A federal republic of four provinces would be best option, imo, to create a new liberal constitution and country, or minor state in more federal EU.

maestroamado

Liberalbrehon wrote: »

All hypothetical but the way world is going, who knows.
The Tory ERG will engineer a situation to remove NI from UK. They will start by reducing the transfer to NI, beginning at the end of year for the next fiscal cycle. They will begin to make life more and more financially difficult for Unionists all the while pretending they want them. They will come up with creative ways to dilute the Unionist vote over next three years.
Boris will call a border poll, the question is whether it is just before or after the next GE in UK. Gut says before so if poll goes to UI, the DUP will be finished as party, much to Tory party delight. DUP have been thorn in side of Westminister for decades. If poll goes to stay in UK, then Tories can say they supported the union with Ulster unionists. With life in NI looking bleaker and bleaker, the Unionist young will move to mainland. I think nationalist youth will hang around with access to the Republic. Poll vote 55-45 to UI. Then the fun begins.
Will unionists emigrate to England, Scotland, stay around as minority, no choice for many, hardliners start a terrorist campaign? A federal republic of four provinces would be best option, imo, to create a new liberal constitution and country, or minor state in more federal EU.

The idea of a new constitution is interesting.
Be the end of some of the cozy set-up at the moment.
I expect Boris is not the fool some people like to think he is...

Sam Russell

Deleted User wrote: »

in a post utd ireland....should we move our judical capital to belfast

I would have my eye on Stormont for the seat of the Dail - it is a much nicer building than Leinster House. It would also allow many NI Civil Servants to be employed while the Dublin ones get redeployed into the private sector.

FrancieBrady

Sam Russell wrote: »

I would have my eye on Stormont for the seat of the Dail - it is a much nicer building than Leinster House. It would also allow many NI Civil Servants to be employed while the Dublin ones get redeployed into the private sector.

I fancy a brand new place of government. A bold and iconic modern building, unattached to any particular past and a statement of intent - the place of government of a modern, inclusive outward looking country. Where it is, doesn't bother me.

Sam Russell

Deleted User wrote: »

You could have the political capital in belfast and the administrative capital in dublin

Move the judicial capital out of dublin,whatever happens....the judges have become too detatched from broader society

Judges used to revel in their detachment from the general hoi poloi. It was considered a mark of great honour to not recognise any aspect of popular culture.

It would be good to broaden the selection criteria for judges, as will probably happen when the judicial bill moves into implementing the new measures.

irish_goat

Sam Russell wrote: »

I would have my eye on Stormont for the seat of the Dail - it is a much nicer building than Leinster House.

The Assembly Chamber wouldn't really be big enough to hold the Dáil.

timmyntc

There won't be a shared Dáil - things will be exactly as they are now - NI as a statelet tied to another country.

Except instead of getting hand outs from UK, it will be ROI who provides (& dictates)
The north will keep their own parliament, but there will be more harmonisation between north & south on healthcare and corporate tax.

maestroamado

irish_goat wrote: »

The Assembly Chamber wouldn't really be big enough to hold the Dáil.

It might be big enough.
I expect there be big changes if UI ever happens.
NI has 18 MPs for 1.5 million people, Republic has 160 for 4.5 million.
If we ever have UN there be big political changes and likely a good few less.

Sam Russell

maestroamado wrote: »

It might be big enough.
I expect there be big changes if UI ever happens.
NI has 18 MPs for 1.5 million people, Republic has 160 for 4.5 million.
If we ever have UN there be big political changes and likely a good few less.

But those 18 MPs sit in a chamber of 630 MPs and none of the NI MPs have ever been Ministers in a UK Gov.

The number of TDs is dictated by the number of ministers. If you need 15 ministers, then the Gov party or parties needs to have sufficient numbers that they can select 15 able persons from their numbers, otherwise just getting elected would give some useless TDs a free pass to Minister. We currently have Junior Ministers as well which doubles the problem. We already have this problem when multi party coalitions are formed, particularly if it includes independents. So some single issue TD from a rural constituency with a special problem gets a ministry - not a good look.

Of course, if much of the power of the central Gov is delegated to regional assemblies (subsidiarity) then the number of central Ministers is reduced. However, we still need Ministers to be on the EU Council of Ministers and that places demands on Central Gov.

So a reduced Dail is going to be unlikely - if anything it will be increased unless the Constitution is changed.

RobMc59

In the two and a half years I've been posting here the republicans are still saying the same thing 'it's going to be our year ' but nothing ever changes.Now NI is very well placed to benefit from its unique situation it's going to be even harder to persuade citizens who are becoming less entrenched in their views that anything needs to change.