How long before Irish reunification? (Part 2) Threadbans in OP

jh79

grayzer75 wrote: »

There's a sizeable young vote who will happily vote for a UI, these 15/16/17 year olds will vastly outnumber the so-called knuckle dragging 'loyalists' by the time they get to voting age / border poll time.

Some will become knuckle dragging Republicans, some will emigrate, some might get jobs in the PS.

Generally as people get older their political outlook changes. Everyone is a socialist until they get their first proper job!

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Brexit hasn't fully happened yet. I wouldn't be so quick to think it is done. Nor has a proper debate (what Unionism fears most) on a UI started. To have support for a UI at that level given the circumstances is a huge encouragement IMO.

I would see the opposite, 5 years (i think) after the Brexit vote and the ensuing chaos yet the majority still want to remain.

I have no idea how Brexit will fair out but it looks like it will have to get worse to convince the people of NI to give up on the UK.

grayzer75

jh79 wrote: »

Some will become knuckle dragging Republicans, some will emigrate, some might get jobs in the PS.

Generally as people get older their political outlook changes. Everyone is a socialist until they get their first proper job!

Most will become well educated and aware of their place in Ireland and Europe.

We know a UI will upset the FF/FG bromance and their followers shudder at the thought of it breaking up but the cracks are appearing within FF as they can see the move to a UI is the big thing on the political agenda for this decade.

Some senior FF people would rather engage with parties other than FG because they realise they don't want to be seen stuck to a partionist party when the time comes and we know FG will support their mates in the DUP.

Another factor to all this will be what happens in Scotland, the whole UK ****show could collapse before a border poll is even called.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

I would see the opposite, 5 years (i think) after the Brexit vote and the ensuing chaos yet the majority still want to remain.

I have no idea how Brexit will fair out but it looks like it will have to get worse to convince the people of NI to give up on the UK.

I think all sensible, realistic views of Brexit point to it getting much worse. Didn't one of it's architects talk of 50 years before there is a payoff.

I admire your optimism as well as pitying it.

jh79

grayzer75 wrote: »

Most will become well educated and aware of their place in Ireland and Europe.

We know a UI will upset the FF/FG bromance and their followers shudder at the thought of it breaking up but the cracks are appearing within FF as they can see the move to a UI is the big thing on the political agenda for this decade.

Some senior FF people would rather engage with parties other than FG because they realise they don't want to be seen stuck to a partionist party when the time comes and we know FG will support their mates in the DUP.

Another factor to all this will be what happens in Scotland, the whole UK ****show could collapse before a border poll is even called.

Nobody really cares about partition. People were happy enough to vote for parties paying lip service to a UI since the GFA. SF new found popularity has nothing to do with partition or ending it.

They won't last long in power if they focus on a UI instead of following through on their magic money tree policies.

grayzer75

jh79 wrote: »

magic money tree policies.

Couldn't be any worse than the worlds most expensive hospital ever.........

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think all sensible, realistic views of Brexit point to it getting much worse. Didn't one of it's architects talk of 50 years before there is a payoff.

I admire your optimism as well as pitying it.

I think Brexit was a terrible idea but that's not the point. Brexit has happened and so far it hasn't convinced NI that unification is a better option. Might change but it looks like things will have to deteriorate significantly.

jh79

grayzer75 wrote: »

Couldn't be any worse than the worlds most expensive hospital ever.........

True but we have a choice when it comes to unification. We could build a new one every year and still be cheaper than funding a UI.

Money used to fix NI will mean diverting funds from projects such as public housing / hospitals /roads or tax increases and decreases in social welfare and PS pay.

People won't care that MLD or Leo think we should do it they will say to themselves am i willing to pay for this.

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Explain 'forced'?

We constitutionally 'aspire' to unity as recently as the GFA.

Where in the gfa did you aspire to unity?

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

I think Brexit was a terrible idea but that's not the point. Brexit has happened and so far it hasn't convinced NI that unification is a better option. Might change but it looks like things will have to deteriorate significantly.

Brexit only actually happened a month ago and has led to the DUP 'pretending' to be terrorists in an attempt to stop Brexit's effects and a myriad of ****storms for everything from business through farming to fishing.

You are premature, optimistic and frankly to be pitied if you are calling a victory here.

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

Where in the gfa did you aspire to unity?

Where did I say it was in the GFA?

The GFA recognises the right to aspire to unity.

We voted to change our constitution (the wording of our GFA referendum) to 'aspire to unity'. We accept a UI constitutionally, in effect.

maestroamado

jh79 wrote: »

I think Brexit was a terrible idea but that's not the point. Brexit has happened and so far it hasn't convinced NI that unification is a better option. Might change but it looks like things will have to deteriorate significantly.

I think Brexit will lead to UI as someone said here before the end of decade.
That's if Customs controls in Belfast work.
I have changed my view as i did not think these controls be in place so soon.
I be tjhinking there were a few testing phone calls between Westminister and NI office in recent days...

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Nobody really cares about partition.
.

Did you miss the last 4 years?
Partition came back to mightily bite the British people (who wanted to Brexit) on the ass.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Brexit only actually happened a month ago and has led to the DUP 'pretending' to be terrorists in an attempt to stop Brexit's effects and a myriad of ****storms for everything from business through farming to fishing.

You are premature, optimistic and frankly to be pitied if you are calling a victory here.

Where am I calling a "victory". If the Brexit situation stabilizes then it is a reasonable conclusion to make that the people of NI will want to remain in the UK based on the recent opinion poll.

In my opinion Brexit will have to have serious negative consequences to convince NI to unify. NI didn't want Brexit so they must of know it was a terrible idea yet even after it officially happening they still want to remain in the UK.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Where am I calling a "victory". If the Brexit situation stabilizes then it is a reasonable conclusion to make that the people of NI will want to remain in the UK based on the recent opinion poll.

In my opinion Brexit will have to have serious negative consequences to convince NI to unify. NI didn't want Brexit so they must of know it was a terrible idea yet even after it officially happening they still want to remain in the UK.

If you think 45% is a 'comfortable' majority I think you are deluded to be honest.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Did you miss the last 4 years?
Partition came back to mightily bite the British people (who wanted to Brexit) on the ass.

As I said to another poster if it wasn't for Brexit there wouldn't even be a discussion on a UI.

If Brexit doesn't lead to unification nothing will in my opinion and while it is early days the most recent poll suggests the people of NI will put up with a lot before considering unification.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

As I said to another poster if it wasn't for Brexit there wouldn't even be a discussion on a UI.

If Brexit doesn't lead to unification nothing will in my opinion and while it is early days the most recent poll suggests the people of NI will put up with a lot before considering unification.

Brexit is just another example of the cyclical problems partition has caused since it was done.

NI has been coming closer and closer to Ireland since the GFA, there was always going to be a point when that process would complete itself IMO. Brexit just brought it closer, much closer.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If you think 45% is a 'comfortable' majority I think you are deluded to be honest.

In the context of Brexit and COVID a 5 % lead with only 11% undecided is a poor result for Republicans.

How much will it take to convince them a UI is a good idea? If Brexit stabilises that gap will widen again.

Out of curiosity, what is a comfortable majority and would you apply the same number to the "likely to pass" caveat in the GFA?

Natterjack from Kerry

jh79 wrote: »

If it wasn't for Brexit there would be no talk of a border poll and even still the majority want to remain. Looks like Brexit will need to have major negative effects before they'll change their minds.

While there is, and will be some Brexit transition disruption, in the longer term it will turn out a very good development for NI. United Irelandists in the north know this and it is an unwelcome development - as things settle and the benefits accrue, interest in a UI will slip even further away than it has been.
So border talkup is likely a panic move to accelerate the chance of a poll before interest wanes further, and to exploit the transition turbulence, as a selling point for how things would be better off outside the UK.

Natterjack from Kerry

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think all sensible, realistic views of Brexit point to it getting much worse. Didn't one of it's architects talk of 50 years before there is a payoff.

Quite possibly, but as with most matters Brexit, that is an England focused conclusion.
NI is different - it has a very different Brexit implementation than the other kingdom. And one that is hugely to its advantage.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

In the context of Brexit and COVID a 5 % lead with only 11% undecided is a poor result for Republicans.

How much will it take to convince them a UI is a good idea? If Brexit stabilises that gap will widen again.

Out of curiosity, what is a comfortable majority and would you apply the same number to the "likely to pass" caveat in the GFA?

In the context of 'less than a month into the actuality of Brexit'...51% want a border poll. That means the debate starts. A pro UI Irish government will produce a white paper and various other parities will mount their campaigns while presumably a anti UI campaign will be mounted by Unionists. (the British government will remain neutral)

Take the poll then and then we will see what the views are. To be so close without a debate is seismic in my opinion.

As to your last question, I think the air needs clearing on this issue, regardless of polls. I think the SoS will do that - call a poll and use his/her legally established prerogative not to evidence it. (McCord case in the courts)

FrancieBrady

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

Quite possibly, but as with most matters Brexit, that is an England focused conclusion.
NI is different - it has a very different Brexit implementation than the other kingdom. And one that is hugely to its advantage.

How is that going in your opinion? D you delude yourself that the DUP and belligerent Unionism is going to settle down, accept the separation from the rest of the UK and allow closer union with the south?

Ha!

Natterjack from Kerry

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If you think 45% is a 'comfortable' majority I think you are deluded to be honest.

Agree its tight enough - a 5 point swing. So a SOS would be looking for indications of at least that to trigger a border poll. Some thing like 60% being in favour of secession, but the polls indicate secessionist support is a long long way from 60% at the moment.

FrancieBrady

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

Agree its tight enough - a 5 point swing. So a SOS would be looking for indications of at least that to trigger a border poll. Some thing like 60% being in favour of secession, but the polls indicate secessionist support is a long long way from 60% at the moment.

As stated, there is no onus on the SoS to evidence his/her decision. This is backed by the courts.
Talk of a requirement for 60% is moot therefore.

Natterjack from Kerry

FrancieBrady wrote: »

As stated, there is no onus on the SoS to evidence his/her decision. This is backed by the courts.
Talk of a requirement for 60% is moot therefore.

Just agreeing with you that 45% isn't really a comfortable majority, 40% probably would be. Meaning 60% support indications for secession would be reasonable. Indeed, no such number is restrains the SoS, but they are sure going to look for comfortable indication ls of support, and not slim or doubtful ones.

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Where did I say it was in the GFA?

The GFA recognises the right to aspire to unity.

We voted to change our constitution (the wording of our GFA referendum) to 'aspire to unity'. We accept a UI constitutionally, in effect.

Here is exactly what you said

"We constitutionally 'aspire' to unity as recently as the GFA."

Now when I challenge it you have subtly changed it to 'the GFA recognises the right to aspire to unity'. Of course it does, it also recognises the right to aspire to stay in the United Kingdom.

Will i have the pleasure of hearing you admit that something wrong. Maybe you will this time?
And in future I am not going to trawl back again to prove you said would you know you said

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

Here is exactly what you said

"We constitutionally 'aspire' to unity as recently as the GFA."

Where does that say 'in the GFA'?

The GFA was in 1998, the same year we changed our constitution to 'aspire to unity'.

Therefore our constitutional aspiration to unity is 'as recent' as the GFA is 'recent'.

Fionn1952

downcow wrote: »

Here is exactly what you said

"We constitutionally 'aspire' to unity as recently as the GFA."

Now when I challenge it you have subtly changed it to 'the GFA recognises the right to aspire to unity'. Of course it does, it also recognises the right to aspire to stay in the United Kingdom.

Will i have the pleasure of hearing you admit that something wrong. Maybe you will this time?
And in future I am not going to trawl back again to prove you said would you know you said

I think you're crossing wires, Downcow. Pre-GFA as you're aware, the Irish Constitution contained a territorial claim over NI.

As part of the GFA, Ireland agreed to remove this. It was replaced with a statement of aspiration towards unification.

Francie is saying that SINCE the GFA the Irish Constitution has contained an aspiration towards Unification, not that the GFA contains this aspiration.

Edit: I see Francie has cleared this up himself.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

In the context of 'less than a month into the actuality of Brexit'...51% want a border poll. That means the debate starts. A pro UI Irish government will produce a white paper and various other parities will mount their campaigns while presumably a anti UI campaign will be mounted by Unionists. (the British government will remain neutral)

Take the poll then and then we will see what the views are. To be so close without a debate is seismic in my opinion.

As to your last question, I think the air needs clearing on this issue, regardless of polls. I think the SoS will do that - call a poll and use his/her legally established prerogative not to evidence it. (McCord case in the courts)

51% might want a border poll but from the same opinion poll it is not likely to pass. Needing to get 9% of the undecided 11% can not be interpreted any other way.

If the SoS goes rogue on us so what, the British don't have a say anyways. It will fail based on that poll. And as you know I think it will fail in the Republic too if funding isn't sorted out.

Fionn1952

jh79 wrote: »

51% might want a border poll but from the same opinion poll it is not likely to pass. Needing to get 9% of the undecided 11% can not be interpreted any other way.

If the SoS goes rogue on us so what, the British don't have a say anyways. It will fail based on that poll. And as you know I think it will fail in the Republic too if funding isn't sorted out.

I would be really concerned if anyone was to suggest holding a border poll immediately after the SoS agrees to do so.

I'd be firmly of the opinion that the SoS, if and when he agrees to call a poll, should be putting it in place a significant amount of time in the future.

Realistically, I'd like so see something in the 1-2 year region which would give time for debate on the matter from both sides, along with proposals to be made by the sitting Irish government on how they intend to implement it (in conjunction with the sitting UK government) and for accurate numbers to be provided to us on how this outcome will impact our finances.