How long before Irish reunification? (Part 2) Threadbans in OP

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

51% might want a border poll but from the same opinion poll it is not likely to pass. Needing to get 9% of the undecided 11% can not be interpreted any other way.

If the SoS goes rogue on us so what, the British don't have a say anyways. It will fail based on that poll. And as you know I think it will fail in the Republic too if funding isn't sorted out.

Nobody has ever closed a 9% gap on an issue where the 'trend' is heading in their favour? Are you just digging deeper holes of delusion here?

Seems to me 51% want a border poll, so that means many in the 11% want to be convinced one way or another. It is very much all to play for.

FrancieBrady

Fionn1952 wrote: »

I would be really concerned if anyone was to suggest holding a border poll immediately after the SoS agrees to do so.

I'd be firmly of the opinion that the SoS, if and when he agrees to call a poll, should be putting it in place a significant amount of time in the future.

Realistically, I'd like so see something in the 1-2 year region which would give time for debate on the matter from both sides, along with proposals to be made by the sitting Irish government on how they intend to implement it (in conjunction with the sitting UK government) and for accurate numbers to be provided to us on how this outcome will impact our finances.

The Scottish referendum is a good gude..two years from calling to the actual referendum.

jh79 might note...when the referendum was called the Yes side were at 32%, during the campaign they led in the polls at 51% and eventually finished a full 12 points ahead of where they started at 44%.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Nobody has ever closed a 9% gap on an issue where the 'trend' is heading in their favour? Are you just digging deeper holes of delusion here?

Seems to me 51% want a border poll, so that means many in the 11% want to be convinced one way or another. It is very much all to play for.

9 from the remaining 11% would be a big turn around. That's not all to play for, It's too big. The trend is obviously being influenced by Brexit. There is still a significant gap despite NI as region being against Brexit. If the Brexit situation stabilises the gap will widen again.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

9 from the remaining 11% would be a big turn around. That's not all to play for, It's too big. The trend is obviously being influenced by Brexit. There is still a significant gap despite NI as region being against Brexit. If the Brexit situation stabilises the gap will widen again.

32% to 44% in the Scottish referendum begs to differ with you. In fact it went to 51% in favour of YES before the panicked promises from Westminster.
Even if Westminster panicks in a UI poll (which they won't) they cannot intervene or offer inducements.
You can delude yourself all you wish about uncloseable gaps, but it has no basis in the real and recent world.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The Scottish referendum is a good gude..two years from calling to the actual referendum.

jh79 might note...when the referendum was called the Yes side were at 32%, during the campaign they led in the polls at 51% and eventually finished a full 12 points ahead of where they started at 44%.

We know form the last opinion poll that the belligerents on both side are approx 60/70 % of the electorate (think it was 35% on each side that would vote irrespective of circumstances). The remaining 30/40% seem to have a more pragmatic view and will focus on issue such as Brexit / NHS.

If Brexit doesn't convince them nothing will and so far (granted it's early days) they are not. I think the situation will stabilise in NI and we are back to as we were.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

32% to 44% in the Scottish referendum begs to differ with you. In fact it went to 51% in favour of YES before the panicked promises from Westminster.
Even if Westminster panicks in a UI poll (which they won't) they cannot intervene or offer inducements.
You can delude yourself all you wish about uncloseable gaps, but it has no basis in the real and recent world.

Sorry Francie it's delusional to think where the current trend is 47/42 that for the undecided that will change to 20/80 to make up the difference without some significant external influence.

If the Brexit situation stabilises we will be back to the status quo for the foreseeable.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Sorry Francie it's delusional to think where the current trend is 47/42 that for the undecided that will change to 20/80 to make up the difference without some significant external influence.

If the Brexit situation stabilises we will be back to the status quo for the foreseeable.

Just totally ignore the clear fact that the Scottish campaign actually changed minds as well.

I reckon you will just hand wave any look at what might hapen away. Carry on jh79.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

If the Brexit situation stabilises we will be back to the status quo for the foreseeable.

A month in and already the party of the First minster is orchestrating terrorist threats to try and bring it all down. Sure jh79, sure, it will stabilise.

grayzer75

Typical DUP behaviour :rolleyes:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-56013330

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

A month in and already the party of the First minster is orchestrating terrorist threats to try and bring it all down. Sure jh79, sure, it will stabilise.

It is funny that the two major parties in NI always seem to make it more difficult to achieve their own agendas.

If Poots had any sense he would help facilitate a smooth transition to the post Brexit NI as possible. Majority don't want a UI but they might be swayed if Brexit is a disaster.

eire4

jh79 wrote: »

It is funny that the two major parties in NI always seem to make it more difficult to achieve their own agendas.

If Poots had any sense he would help facilitate a smooth transition to the post Brexit NI as possible. Majority don't want a UI but they might be swayed if Brexit is a disaster.

It truly is so ironic that the behaviour for years now as well as currently of the DUP over the whole brexit issue is leading them down the path to a reunified Ireland. No question either that brexit is the massive sea change in circumstances that has brought forward the current situation where reunification is concerned.

FrancieBrady

Doesn't look like the EU are going to move far. If anything the UK have exposed themselves here.

So, this is a very hardball response by Sefcovic in response to Michael Gove's hardball letter of last week. It also reflects a hardening resolve among capitals over the UK seeming to want to rewrite the Protocol. The meeting tomorrow will be interesting...

https://mobile.twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1359590841619275776

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Where does that say 'in the GFA'?

The GFA was in 1998, the same year we changed our constitution to 'aspire to unity'.

Therefore our constitutional aspiration to unity is 'as recent' as the GFA is 'recent'.

Wise up Francie. You are embarrassing yourself.

RobMc59

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Doesn't look like the EU are going to move far. If anything the UK have exposed themselves here.



https://mobile.twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1359590841619275776

You've been saying the EU won't budge,now you're back tracking saying it doesn't look like they're going to move far,make your mind up.

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

You've been saying the EU won't budge,now you're back tracking saying it doesn't look like they're going to move far,make your mind up.

I have been saying they will not budge on the protocol but will facilitate easements and flexibilities built into it. Even if it means showing the UK where they are.

Natterjack from Kerry

FrancieBrady wrote: »

How is that going in your opinion? D you delude yourself that the DUP and belligerent Unionism is going to settle down, accept the separation from the rest of the UK and allow closer union with the south?

Ha!

Not sure what the "Ha!" means.

Nevertheless, are you saying the DUP and belligerand Unionism will settle down if there were a border poll, and, if the north voted to secede ?

Natterjack from Kerry

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Where did I say it was in the GFA?

The GFA recognises the right to aspire to unity.

We voted to change our constitution (the wording of our GFA referendum) to 'aspire to unity'. We accept a UI constitutionally, in effect.

You dont do any such thing, in effect, or not in effect. The approval of the Irish people would be required. The referendum in 1999 simply approved agreement to considering the matter should it arise from approval in the north.

FrancieBrady

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

Not sure what the "Ha!" means.

Nevertheless, are you saying the DUP and belligerand Unionism will settle down if there were a border poll, and, if the north voted to secede ?

They are having to invent threats. Think about that for a minute. From Carson and Ulster Covenant (our first 'terrorists') to the Anglo Irish agreement when Paisley could bring a 100,000 on to the streets to a 'petition that still hasn't hit 150,000 and invented terrorist threats. Belligerent militant Unionism is a beaten docket tbh.

Natterjack from Kerry

FrancieBrady wrote: »

They are having to invent threats. Think about that for a minute. From Carson and Ulster Covenant (our first 'terrorists') to the Anglo Irish agreement when Paisley could bring a 100,000 on to the streets to a 'petition that still hasn't hit 150,000 and invented terrorist threats. Belligerent militant Unionism is a beaten docket tbh.

Does that make any sense to any one ?

FrancieBrady

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

Does that make any sense to any one ?

Belligerent Unionism will not jepordise a UI. Which is what you asked. The world will move on without them, like it did after the AIA, and the GFA. They have caught up with the GFA now and are trying to use it as a last ditch mechanism to save them from a mess they made themselves.

Brendan Bendar

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

Does that make any sense to any one ?

Load of waffle.

downcow

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

Does that make any sense to any one ?

Not a word of it. Ramblings

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

From Carson and Ulster Covenant (our first 'terrorists').

This sort of sums up francies problem. And I don’t think he even realises it.
Big big blinkers that can block out centuries of history.
I wish I had a set of them. They would make my life very simple black and white.

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

This sort of sums up francies problem. And I don’t think he even realises it.
Big big blinkers that can block out centuries of history.
I wish I had a set of them. They would make my life very simple black and white.

Belligerent Unionism has always threatened violence when faced with any separation from Britain.

I clearly got under the skin of a few who like to pretend that is the case.

My theory is that belligerent Unionism is so reduced it is now having to make false threats of violence (Edwin Poots false claims about credible threats) and petitions.

Brendan Bendar

downcow wrote: »

This sort of sums up francies problem. And I don’t think he even realises it.
Big big blinkers that can block out centuries of history.
I wish I had a set of them. They would make my life very simple black and white.

There are those who like nothing better than jaw and wrangle indeterminately over issues lost in the midst of time.

It’s their life, down, you gotta take note of that.

FrancieBrady

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

There are those who like nothing better than jaw and wrangle indeterminately over issues lost in the midst of time.

It’s their life, down, you gotta take note of that.

The threat of violence from belligerent Unionism is 'an issue lost in the midst of time' Brendi?

It's what they do - from Carson to Paisley to Bryson to Poots.

jh79

Wouldn't worry Francie, an extension of the grace periods and implementation of the suggestions from industry raised at yesterdays meeting and we can all go back to as we were.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Wouldn't worry Francie, an extension of the grace periods and implementation of the suggestions from industry raised at yesterdays meeting and we can all go back to as we were.

Yes, the UK working the Protocol as it was designed to do. Shame the DUP and the belligerents had to let themselves down again.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Yes, the UK working the Protocol as it was designed to do. Shame the DUP and the belligerents had to let themselves down again.

If they sort these issues out (i think they will), what then for SF? Pre the Brexit deal the trend was a good majority in the event of a hard brexit but remaining in the uk if it were to be a soft brexit. Outside of the belligerent, the deciding middle ground what to stay in the UK but have access to the EU.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

If they sort these issues out (i think they will), what then for SF? Pre the Brexit deal the trend was a good majority in the event of a hard brexit but remaining in the uk if it were to be a soft brexit. Outside of the belligerent, the deciding middle ground what to stay in the UK but have access to the EU.

Brexit will affect Britain first, and then it cannot help have an effect on northern Ireland. We are a month in and the damage already is way ahead of what I expected it to be. The full effect hasn't even been reached yet.