How long before Irish reunification? (Part 2) Threadbans in OP

munsterlegend

RobMc59 wrote: »

As you've pointed out yourself,sometimes what is perceived as a disadvantage or calamity turns out to be a blessing in disguise.The GFA has been exactly that for the Union. Vague possibilities of a UI and a neutralized IRA have hamstrung republican aspirations.Adding to that,the coronavirus epidemic has highlighted to the people of NI just how much say they actually have in their own day to day lives thanks to the devolved government-its unlikely they would want to give that up to be down the pecking order with Dublin.
The idyllic rose tinted republican vision of a UI is getting further away.

Or the reality the NI executive changing Its Covid 19 policy to align with Dublin rather than Dublin. Closer integration economically with Dublin now that there is going to be a border down the Irish Sea. The reality is the people up north will look to Dublin more and more when Brexit takes shape to represent its view. The majority up north never wanted Brexit and still don’t. Also Westminster continuing to fork up when the north basically trying to screw it such as RHI at every opportunity won’t be tolerated. If Scotland get another vote and leave which is 50/50 probably , then the Union really in a perilous state.

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The GFA has 'moderated' Unionism downcow in my opinion. It's greatest triumph was in convincing the likes of Ian Paisley to admit that Unionism had taken advantage of the artificially created statlet, that it had gotten rid of the voting system it was set-up with to gerrymander and control the power in a bigoted and sectarian way.
Once Unionism in the main accepted that, the end of the road to equality and parity of esteem was in sight.

Unfortunately there is still a number of belligerents (ever decreasing) trying to drive the car off the road. Like what happened with the DUP over Brexit. It failed and a few more belligerents fell off the wagon. It failed too when they tried to stand up to the Tory's and Dublin over a border in the Irish sea.

Images of Jamie Bryson meeting in the upstairs rooms of pubs spring to mind, where did it all go wrong?

The AIA and the GFA is were it all went wrong if you are a belligerent.

Good for moderates on both sides. Remember, it also ended the IRA sectarian murder campaign

FrancieBrady

munsterlegend wrote: »

Or the reality the NI executive changing Its Covid 19 policy to align with Dublin rather than Dublin. Closer integration economically with Dublin now that there is going to be a border down the Irish Sea. The reality is the people up north will look to Dublin more and more when Brexit takes shape to represent its view. The majority up north never wanted Brexit and still don’t. Also Westminster continuing to fork up when the north basically trying to screw it such as RHI at every opportunity won’t be tolerated. If Scotland get another vote and leave which is 50/50 probably , then the Union really in a perilous state.

The 'Union' is already in a perilous state. I see no reason to change my view that it is in a process of disintegration beginning with the first Scottish Independence referendum and probably ending with the second one, when it comes.
I believe the sudden urgency in Dublin to get a plan together is the realisation of what is happening too.

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That's precisely what we would like the belligerents to believe. A false sense of security. And it is probably why the DUP has messed up Brexit and the delivery of the GFA so spectacularly. A false sense that they are driving things...as any realist can see, they aren't, not even when the Tory's were using them to maintain power. As soon as the Tory had done with them the SoS was blaming them specifically for the continued absence of an executive. The DUP **** the bed again and capitulated because they had no choice in the cul de sac they went up.

What are you basing all that theory on anyway? Seems to me 'island health security' is the talking point of Covid and our 'control' of that. A rogue NI threatening our strategies is not a good thing and will feature in any discussion about the future.

Yes Rob is spot on.
The approach to Covid has been a very positive experience for the people in Northern Ireland. In general we have went with the UK, indeed England to be more specific, but when it was right for us we made our own decisions to suit our situation.
ROI continues to make its decision without any serious consultation with NI politicians and experts. Of course they are very right to do that.

One big plus around Covid is that shinners have learnt a few hard lessons.
Michelle O'Neil etc went in all guns blazing attacking every other party. She has completely pulled her horns in, and to her credit, is beginning to learn what grown-up politics is all about from the other parties around her (and they aren't exactly expert at).
A few of her party colleagues are still out on a limb. Conor Murphy, saying that there would have been no need for social isolating, etc, had the health service being in a proper state - I think everyone has agreed he has lost the plot on that one

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The 'Union' is already in a perilous state. I see no reason to change my view that it is in a process of disintegration beginning with the first Scottish Independence referendum and probably ending with the second one, when it comes.
I believe the sudden urgency in Dublin to get a plan together is the realisation of what is happening too.

..... There have been Francies predicting NI is on its last legs in the union for the past 50 years . And there will be little Francies saying exactly the same thing in 2070. I guess everyone needs hope

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

Yes Rob is spot on.
The approach to Covid has been a very positive experience for the people in Northern Ireland. In general we have went with the UK, indeed England to be more specific, but when it was right for us we made our own decisions to suit our situation.
ROI continues to make its decision without any serious consultation with NI politicians and experts. Of course they are very right to do that.

One big plus around Covid is that shinners have learnt a few hard lessons.
Michelle O'Neil etc went in all guns blazing attacking every other party. She has completely pulled her horns in, and to her credit, is beginning to learn what grown-up politics is all about from the other parties around her (and they aren't exactly expert at).
A few of her party colleagues are still out on a limb. Conor Murphy, saying that there would have been no need for social isolating, etc, had the health service being in a proper state - I think everyone has agreed he has lost the plot on that one

As I said, the way you guys have deluded yourselves is both typical and expected. I think deep down, you both (downcow and rob) know the truth and 'the ladies lads doth protest too much'.
Here's what readers in Britain are being told about it.

The DUP showed that it was content to sacrifice the economic stability of Northern Ireland in pursuit of the empty, jingoistic rhetoric of Brexit, and at the outset of this pandemic, it did seem that public health was playing second fiddle to the party’s lemming-like tendency to follow Westminster’s instruction.//

//Unexpected events often act as a catalyst for finding new pathways towards a goal. Nobody could have conceived that the case for a united Ireland would dovetail with the now urgent practicalities of a united approach to a public health crisis. But the big ideas we have about society often don’t pan out how we anticipate. Eradicating the border’s segmentation of two jurisdictions has been a peacetime issue, a Brexit issue and is now a public health issue.

“Disease knows no border. We have to work on all-island collective basis in what is an emerging crisis,” O’Neill said early on, a narrative that has continued through the course of the pandemic. “It’s pure common sense that we need an all-island and a unified approach in dealing with this pandemic,” Sinn Féin’s leader, Mary Lou McDonald, said on an RTÉ radio programme, after she was praised for the low-key manner with which she dealt with a nasty bout of Covid-19, removing herself from the spotlight and only emerging when she recovered. And it’s not just politicians proposing a unified Ireland in this context. The University of Limerick’s professor of general practice, Liam Glynn, told the Irish Times, “Anything other than an all-Ireland approach is bananas. We are an island.”

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/02/coronavirus-united-ireland-pandemic-

In short, what the above says is that you are completely deluding yourselves again. Carry on please!

jm08

downcow wrote: »

Well we were told they were not supposed to be sectarian. But anyhow you may well be correct.

I feel there is no way a unionist could ever accept sunningdale which would have establishEd a Council of Ireland with executive powers, the beginnings of unifying Ireland. A slippery slope.
The gfa is the opposite. A clear acceptance from everyone that ni is an integral part of the uk and can only change with the agreement of the people of NI.
This is why I believe the gfa is tantamount to a surrender by the Ira. Sunningdale would have clearly been a defeat/surrender by unionists

Answer the question - would you have supported Sunningdale?


Council of Ireland - ''executive functions of the Council would be limited to "tourism, conservation, and aspects of animal health". Similar to GFA.

jm08

eire4 wrote: »

You are incorrect as regards the FAI crest. I suggest you take a better look at the stylized football. The stylized Shamrock is right there.

Having 3 circles close together isn't a shamrock, or close to it.

downcow

jm08 wrote: »

Answer the question - would you have supported Sunningdale?


Council of Ireland - ''executive functions of the Council would be limited to "tourism, conservation, and aspects of animal health". Similar to GFA.

I thought the below answer a have was clear. No

I feel there is no way a unionist could ever accept sunningdale which would have establishEd a Council of Ireland with executive powers, the beginnings of unifying Ireland. A slippery slope.
The gfa is the opposite. A clear acceptance from everyone that ni is an integral part of the uk and can only change with the agreement of the people of NI.
This is why I believe the gfa is tantamount to a surrender by the Ira. Sunningdale would have clearly been a defeat/surrender by unionists

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

As I said, the way you guys have deluded yourselves is both typical and expected. I think deep down, you both (downcow and rob) know the truth and 'the ladies lads doth protest too much'.
Here's what readers in Britain are being told about it.




https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/02/coronavirus-united-ireland-pandemic-

In short, what the above says is that you are completely deluding yourselves again. Carry on please!

Francie. Give me your best guess at what year you think the unification of NI & ROI into one country will take place.
It actually would be nice to hear that from others to. At least junkyard Tom should give us a laugh if nothing else.

I’ll give Blaaz a by ball as he is too busy searching for his magic beans!

Ps. Also interested if you guys think it is a simple absorption of NI or whether NI is an equal partner in designing it? Or maybe it’s that old majority rule again is it?

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

Francie. Give me your best guess at what year you think the unification of NI & ROI into one country will take place.
It actually would be nice to hear that from others to. At least junkyard Tom should give us a laugh if nothing else.

I’ll give Blaaz a by ball as he is too busy searching for his magic beans!

Unless the UK pulls in it's horns and accepts it place in it's relationship with the EU, never mind the world they are running the Union onto the rocks with the same hubris that the DUP ran their place in that Union onto the rocks.

I estimate a collapse of the UK within 10 to 20 years. Depends on how long the UK can stave off the effects of leaving the EU. Could be dramatically shorter than that.
I think our government, however that is constituted, will be ready inside 5.

Edit: What input the people of the north have will depend on how much they engage. Once a UI is decided upon then it will be a case of conviction or concensus politics. Convince each other that doing certain things will make a better unified island.

That means in the realm of flags, anthems, orders and organisationsetc.

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Unless the UK pulls in it's horns and accepts it place in it's relationship with the EU, never mind the world they are running the Union onto the rocks with the same hubris that the DUP ran their place in that Union onto the rocks.

I estimate a collapse of the UK within 10 to 20 years. Depends on how long the UK can stave off the effects of leaving the EU. Could be dramatically shorter than that.
I think our government, however that is constituted, will be ready inside 5.

Edit: What input the people of the north have will depend on how much they engage. Once a UI is decided upon then it will be a case of conviction or concensus politics. Convince each other that doing certain things will make a better unified island.

That means in the realm of flags, anthems, orders and organisationsetc.

So what year are you guessing?

jm08

downcow wrote: »

I thought the below answer a have was clear. No

I feel there is no way a unionist could ever accept sunningdale which would have establishEd a Council of Ireland with executive powers, the beginnings of unifying Ireland. A slippery slope.
The gfa is the opposite. A clear acceptance from everyone that ni is an integral part of the uk and can only change with the agreement of the people of NI.
This is why I believe the gfa is tantamount to a surrender by the Ira. Sunningdale would have clearly been a defeat/surrender by unionists

But there is a North South Council. The British Government consult the Irish Government. Sunningdale would have been a surrender to much softer nationalists who would have been happy to remain as part of the UK as long as they got fair representation and catholics were not discriminated against.
The IRA would not have thrived as it did without a lot of mismanagement by the British Government (internment, various massacres etc).

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

So what year are you guessing?

I will pick one half way into my estimate, 2030. Could be quicker maybe a bit longer.

jm08

downcow wrote: »

So what year are you guessing?

I'd say there will be a refrendum within 5 or 6 years. After that, British withdrawal would take about 15 to 20 years if you look at the British withdrawal from Hong Kong (or indeed, Ireland's transition from a Free State to a Republic).

Arlene Foster would be about 75, Sammy Wilson 95, Nigel Dodds in his 80s, Jeffrey Donaldson 80s, Ian P. Junior 70s. The new face of unionism, Jamie Bryson will be 50.

RobMc59

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Unless the UK pulls in it's horns and accepts it place in it's relationship with the EU, never mind the world they are running the Union onto the rocks with the same hubris that the DUP ran their place in that Union onto the rocks.

I estimate a collapse of the UK within 10 to 20 years. Depends on how long the UK can stave off the effects of leaving the EU. Could be dramatically shorter than that.
I think our government, however that is constituted, will be ready inside 5.

Edit: What input the people of the north have will depend on how much they engage. Once a UI is decided upon then it will be a case of conviction or concensus politics. Convince each other that doing certain things will make a better unified island.

That means in the realm of flags, anthems, orders and organisationsetc.

You've always maintained someone else will pay for a UI although you don't appear to have any idea of who that will be. So let's look at the possible candidates-the UK,US or EU.All of which are looking at huge costs incurred by the coronavirus epidemic and unlikely to have spare money for a UI. Which leaves Ireland to foot the bill on its own and this has been looked at from every angle on multiple occasions here to the best of my knowledge, thats a financial non starter.
In addition to this,as illustrated in this guardian link ,round about 70%(regardless of whether Catholic or Protestant)are happy the way the devolved government is working.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jun/17/brexit-unionist-nationalist-divide-northern-ireland-survey-identity-political-allegiances

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

You've always maintained someone else will pay for a UI although you don't appear to have any idea of who that will be.

No I haven't.

So let's look at the possible candidates-the UK,US or EU.All of which are looking at huge costs incurred by the coronavirus epidemic and unlikely to have spare money for a UI which leaves Ireland to foot the bill on its own and has been looked at from every angle on multiple occasions here to the best of my knowledge thats a financial non starter.

Nonsense, not remotely how the world works.

In addition to this,as illustrated in this guardian link ,round about 70%(regardless of whether Catholic or Protestant)are happy the way the devolved government is working.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jun/17/brexit-unionist-nationalist-divide-northern-ireland-survey-identity-political-allegiances

Surveys trumpeting the effects of brexit are a bit meaningless, given that Brexit has not happened yet.
If Britain insists on crashing out, then everything changes again.

downcow

jm08 wrote: »

But there is a North South Council. The British Government consult the Irish Government. Sunningdale would have been a surrender to much softer nationalists who would have been happy to remain as part of the UK as long as they got fair representation and catholics were not discriminated against.
The IRA would not have thrived as it did without a lot of mismanagement by the British Government (internment, various massacres etc).

I agree that positions hardened due to the actions of the other side. The IRA was able to recruit on the back of issues, and the PUL community was united and strengthened by the actions of the IRA.

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I will pick one half way into my estimate, 2030. Could be quicker maybe a bit longer.

That's funny, but I cant wait for junkyard Tom as I think his will give us the biggest laugh.
This really is Jack and the Beanstalk stuff, that there could be a united Ireland 2030.
...... and talking about Jack and the Beanstalk has just reminded me, Blaaz has been MIA for about a week now

munsterlegend

downcow wrote: »

I agree that positions hardened due to the actions of the other side. The IRA was able to recruit on the back of issues, and the PUL community was united and strengthened by the actions of the IRA.

And yet ignore the point just like sunningdale there are cross border institutions now with executive powers. Also London doesn’t sneeze in the north without consulting with the Irish govt. Ben Lowry is always ranting and raving about how Westminster let dublin set the narrative and never rail back against it. Also in any border poll the British govt is likely to remain neutral unlike in Scotland.

Did you vote for or against Brexit?

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

That's funny, but I cant wait for junkyard Tom as I think his will give us the biggest laugh.
This really is Jack and the Beanstalk stuff, that there could be a united Ireland 2030.
...... and talking about Jack and the Beanstalk has just reminded me, Blaaz has been MIA for about a week now

I knew you would laugh at it...no surprise there. I am very comfortable with you thinking this will 'never' happen.
The track record of belligerent Unionism when it says 'never' augurs well for my future tbh.

Every time you guys say it, it almost guarantees it will happen.

FrancieBrady

munsterlegend wrote: »

And yet ignore the point just like sunningdale there are cross border institutions now with executive powers. Also London doesn’t sneeze in the north without consulting with the Irish govt. Ben Lowry is always ranting and raving about how Westminster let dublin set the narrative and never rail back against it. Also in any border poll the British govt is likely to remain neutral unlike in Scotland.

Not 'likely' but has to remain neutral. Because Britain sees itself as an 'outside impediment'.

“that it is for the people of the island of Ireland alone, by agreement between the two parts respectively and without external impediment, to exercise their right to self-determination on the basis of consent, freely and concurrently given, North and South, to bring about a united Ireland,


The tacit withdrawal of Britain again - they are outsiders.

munsterlegend

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Not 'likely' but has to remain neutral. Because Britain sees itself as an 'outside impediment'.

“that it is for the people of the island of Ireland alone, by agreement between the two parts respectively and without external impediment, to exercise their right to self-determination on the basis of consent, freely and concurrently given, North and South, to bring about a united Ireland,


The tacit withdrawal of Britain again - they are outsiders.

Yes I know but a British govt under someone like Boris could change tact depending on what way the wind is blowing as unionists well know. Yes I agree they would stay out of it based on the GFA.

downcow

munsterlegend wrote: »

And yet ignore the point just like sunningdale there are cross border institutions now with executive powers. Also London doesn’t sneeze in the north without consulting with the Irish govt. Ben Lowry is always ranting and raving about how Westminster let dublin set the narrative and never rail back against it. Also in any border poll the British govt is likely to remain neutral unlike in Scotland.

Did you vote for or against Brexit?

But the irony of all you are saying, means that more and more nationalists are content with the status quo.

I was in France enjoying the euros with my beloved team. Did not know how to vote so probably use that as an excuse not to. Had I been at home, I probably would have voted. I was very borderline but slightly on the No side.
I am very content that we are exiting though. There are pros and cons

downcow

munsterlegend wrote: »

Yes I know but a British govt under someone like Boris could change tact depending on what way the wind is blowing as unionists well know. Yes I agree they would stay out of it based on the GFA.

thank God for the GFA then.
We have been given control of our own destiny. Probably the first time in our history.

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

But the irony of all you are saying, means that more and more nationalists are content with the status quo.

I was in France enjoying the euros with my beloved team. Did not know how to vote so probably use that as an excuse not to. Had I been at home, I probably would have voted. I was very borderline but slightly on the No side.
I am very content that we are exiting though. There are pros and cons

You aren't really exiting though are you. Britain is, you guys are in limbo at our request/demand.

I could sugar coat it to make you feel better but why bother.

munsterlegend

downcow wrote: »

But the irony of all you are saying, means that more and more nationalists are content with the status quo.

I was in France enjoying the euros with my beloved team. Did not know how to vote so probably use that as an excuse not to. Had I been at home, I probably would have voted. I was very borderline but slightly on the No side.
I am very content that we are exiting though. There are pros and cons

Are you not concerned Westminster are not bothered if the north leaves the Union? Surely such an attitude can’t be healthy in the long term. While before during the troubles it could be argued they didn’t want the Ira to win that reason is now gone.

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

thank God for the GFA then.
We have been given control of our own destiny. Probably the first time in our history.

The people of the island have. You had control as Unionists and made an utter mess of it.

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You aren't really exiting though are you. Britain is, you guys are in limbo at our request/demand.

I could sugar coat it to make you feel better but why bother.

There is some truth in what you say. But again it is going to make your united Ireland agenda even more difficult to achieve.

You see you are caught this conundrum. The only way to get united Ireland is to get the majority of the people in Northern Ireland to vote for it.
The more concessions you get then, I think you will agree, the less likely a positive UI vote will be.
Of course if you believe what you said and were confident that a UI is coming soon, then you would hasten that along by ensuring the nationalist community gets as few concessions as possible.
This is how we know your true feelings. You are driving after concessions like an Irish language act because you know fine well that, at best, it is a very very very long road to a UI.

So we're actually doing you a wee favour by opposing an Irish language act.
You see you can work out what we truly believe as well by our actions as well. If we thought you had any hope of persuading the majority in Northern Ireland to vote for a UI then we would be pulling out all stops to make nationalists think they own the place.

Actions speak louder than words in both cases

downcow

munsterlegend wrote: »

Are you not concerned Westminster are not bothered if the north leaves the Union? Surely such an attitude can’t be healthy in the long term. While before during the troubles it could be argued they didn’t want the Ira to win that reason is now gone.

I do not believe there is any evidence that the UK Parliament ever has stood in the way of NI leaving the union the people want go.

I don't see that anything has actually changed in that respect.
The only difference is that we now cannot be pushed