How long before Irish reunification? (Part 2) Threadbans in OP

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

And? That only increases what we have to put in.

You're fond of the term belligerent unionism. Maybe you're underestimating how belligerent they are?

No, I think you are more likely to see that big GDP come into play. THe British don't want it anymore, the GFA was the tacit withdrawal. They'll be happy to contribute to it. As will the EU, in whose interests it most certainly is.

BonnieSituation

jh79 wrote: »

On i dunno maybe a sectarian terrorist org to surrender and their political wing to get comfortable on their salaries and pensions?

Right. That makes perfect sense.

maccored

downcow wrote: »

Why would you have a yarn about something you 100% don’t want and will likely never happen.
It would be like asking republicans to have a good yarn about removing all funding from Irish language.

you really, really don't understand the idea of everyone having their say.

why is that? you re saying theres no point in discussion - thats a bit rich surely?

How can there never be a time where a discussion about a UI cant take place? Who would have the right to stop other people discussing it?

Going by your replies so far - I assume you think you would have the right to stop a discussion between everyone on the island? Isn't that a bit egotistical or is it because you think you can hold us all to ransom?

unbelievable attitude to have in this day and age.

gormdubhgorm

jh79 wrote: »

Do you really need an explanation on how the true cost of something is relative to overall wealth?

Yeah taking all the emotion out of it I just don't think a UI is worth it. Now I understand how emotive it is for those on both sides who have needlessly lost lives. All over a small patch of land that was successfully planted over 400 years ago when a few other lads fecked off and holidayed in continental Europe.

I certainly would not be one of those to shout your 'sterling is no use down here' or 'what's it like to have a queen' at the minority who view themselves in a occupied territory.
But at the same token I respect the fact that the majority of NI view themselves as British.

However, I do believe that things like 'a nation once again' is a complete misnomer it never was a whole sovereign nation. I don't accept this UI birthright myth. It is what the whole thing seems to come down to in the minds of Republicans.

Plus I believe if there was a UI it would drag the ROI down to NI's level. A murky world of constant half truths, one-upmanship, and lots of triumphalist flag waving and OTT symbolism. Constant hassle, constant tension. As well as economic costs it will be inviting a murky world into the ROI. In a nutshell it would lower the tone of the neighbourhood.

No thanks.

I believe it will have to reach 60/40 for any successful border poll though. To be sure, to be sure. Unlikely to happen before Mayo wins Sam again is my guess.

Junkyard Tom

jh79 wrote: »

Maybe you're underestimating how belligerent they are?

Let's say a pro-UI vote passes, what then for the most belligerent Unionists? What would their demands be if they threatened to cause trouble?

Be specific and remember Unionists are a minority in Derry, Belfast, Newry and four of the six counties.



Have a go.

eire4

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

'£100,000,000 a week for the NHS: get rid of NI' would look good on the side of a bus.

It will be very interesting to see in the next few years once the hard economic realities of no longer being in the EU kick in and especially if starting next January 1 as looks likely there is no trade deal in place if the UK is still willing to keep up paying the money to prop up Stormont that they have been or will they start to cut back.

Junkyard Tom

eire4 wrote: »

the UK is still willing to keep up paying the money to prop up Stormont..

How long before English Nationalist Tories start saying 'Northern Ireland decided to stay in the EU, why should we underwrite it'?

I mean it doesn't have to be true at all in England, they just need to get the Telegraph and Mail parroting it and there'd be no electoral consequences.

FrancieBrady

Who would trust a word out of their mouths downcow? Must be a bleak night for Unionists who put their eggs in that basket.

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsNI/status/1280448898797056000

eire4

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The Scottish Ref went ahead when it was politically expedient for Westminster to allow it.
It will be same here, polls will have little to do with it.

I have no idea if polls will have anything to do with it but if London was smart they would look to hold the referendum asap because the longer they refuse and say no the more they are just ramping up support for independence. Then there is the likely scenario that come January 1 next the UK will have no trade deal with the EU and then they have the next Scottish assembly elections in May 2021. By the time that is all done there is a real chance that support for Scottish independence may be very well entrenched. The recent polls already have the yes side with a 54-46% lead.

eire4

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

How long before English Nationalist Tories start saying 'Northern Ireland decided to stay in the EU, why should we underwrite it'?

I mean it doesn't have to be true at all in England, they just need to get the Telegraph and Mail parroting it and there'd be no electoral consequences.

Not to mention when the hard realities economically of longer being in the EU and as seems likely if come next January 1 they have no trade deal with the EU I can easily see them making a substantial cut back into the money they send over to prop up stormont each year.

BonnieSituation

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

Yeah taking all the emotion out of it I just don't think a UI is worth it. Now I understand how emotive it is for those on both sides who have needlessly lost lives. All over a small patch of land that was successfully planted over 400 years ago when a few other lads fecked off and holidayed in continental Europe.

I certainly would not be one of those to shout your 'sterling is no use down here' or 'what's it like to have a queen' at the minority who view themselves in a occupied territory.
But at the same token I respect the fact that the majority of NI view themselves as British.

However, I do believe that things like 'a nation once again' is a complete misnomer it never was a whole sovereign nation. I don't accept this UI birthright myth. It is what the whole thing seems to come down to in the minds of Republicans.

Plus I believe if there was a UI it would drag the ROI down to NI's level. A murky world of constant half truths, one-upmanship, and lots of triumphalist flag waving and OTT symbolism. Constant hassle, constant tension. As well as economic costs it will be inviting a murky world into the ROI. In a nutshell it would lower the tone of the neighbourhood.

No thanks.

I believe it will have to reach 60/40 for any successful border poll though. To be sure, to be sure. Unlikely to happen before Mayo wins Sam again is my guess.

A successful border poll happens at 50% + 1. Soz.

jh79

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Let's say a pro-UI vote passes, what then for the most belligerent Unionists? What would their demands be if they threatened to cause trouble?

Be specific and remember Unionists are a minority in Derry, Belfast, Newry and four of the six counties.



Have a go.

Not what i meant. Francie was saying that the UK are investing less in NI and that in turn would lead to a yes vote. I'm saying they'll put up with that.

Yeah_Right

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Oooh. Getting shirty today aren't we.

You say you know how tax works and yet ask me how much I am "personally willing to pay"?

So say I say, 5 grand a year right? Is that enough? I dunno. Maybe only €500 would do? I dunno. Hmmmm... how would we ever work this out?

So is this spread amongst general taxation or would you expect a line on your payslip that says "United Ireland cash"?

Such a disingenuous level of discussion.

You'd think as "New Ulster" man yourself you'd have a bit more affinity to the place. That you don't get why Irish nationalists would approach reunification in a more wholesome way rather than in a solely transactional approach, really is not something we can help you with at this stage.

You are willing to pay €5000 a year towards unification. Fair play. I assumed that you one of those nationalists that would shout about leprechauns and shamrocks for everyone but never put any skin in the game. I stand corrected.

I don't think the country can afford to join with NI so I expect that they will have to bring in a Unification Tax. Temporarily of course :rolleyes: Would 5 grand from every adult in Ireland be enough? The reality is you have no idea how it will be paid for and you don't care what it will cost everyone. You just want your "birthright" of a united Ireland.

Did you have a chance to find that "thorough response" you wrote previously? I'd love to read it. And I did laugh at "getting shirty". Such a quaint phrase. Very British.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Not what i meant. Francie was saying that the UK are investing less in NI and that in turn would lead to a yes vote. I'm saying they'll put up with that.

Not the point I was making, but it certainly will be a factor, if those proposing a UI come up with an investment plan.

I was laughing at the idea you put forward that with proper investment from Westminster everyone would live happily ever after.
They haven't invested in decades, multiple decades...why would they begin now when NI has been used and cast aside like a low value chip in a poker game?

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Not the point I was making, but it certainly will be a factor, if those proposing a UI come up with an investment plan.

I was laughing at the idea you put forward that with proper investment from Westminster everyone would live happily ever after.
They haven't invested in decades, multiple decades...why would they begin now when NI has been used and cast aside like a low value chip in a poker game?

Never said everybody would live happily ever after. But for NI to remain British only 50 +1 % need to be happy.

Same applies for a UI, there is no happily ever after for NI in either scenario.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Never said everybody would live happily ever after. But for NI to remain British only 50 +1 % need to be happy.

Same applies for a UI, there is no happily ever after for NI in either scenario.

No of course there won't be a nirvana or happy ever after. But there is a chance to build something that can be better.

It will be interesting to see what the British promise to 'get NI to stay in the Union'. Those promises can be compared to what Scotland was promised and what wasn't delivered there.

Any promises will be treated with the respect they deserve TBH based on how they have let the place decay.

gormdubhgorm

BonnieSituation wrote: »

A successful border poll happens at 50% + 1. Soz.

In theory yes. But if the poll is lost what will that do for SF etc another 7 year wait at least. Plus it is on the say so of the Sec of State in the GFA whether to call it. A poll will not be called if it is a tight call.

gormdubhgorm

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Let's say a pro-UI vote passes, what then for the most belligerent Unionists? What would their demands be if they threatened to cause trouble?

Be specific and remember Unionists are a minority in Derry, Belfast, Newry and four of the six counties.



Have a go.

Even basing things on religion is farcical these days. How many people are regular mass goers? It is a mere badge of convenience.

FrancieBrady

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

In theory yes. But if the poll is lost what will that do for SF etc another 7 year wait at least. Plus it is on the say so of the Sec of State in the GFA whether to call it. A poll will not be called if it is a tight call.

A poll will be called due to 'circumstances'.
Same as the first Scottish ref and the Brexit ref...circumstances that had nothing to do with popular opinion dictated the calling of them.

And NO British or Irish government is going to ignore a 50+1 vote. Imagine where they would be leading society here if Nationalists were told a majority didn't matter?

jm08

Yeah_Right wrote: »

You are willing to pay €5000 a year towards unification. Fair play. I assumed that you one of those nationalists that would shout about leprechauns and shamrocks for everyone but never put any skin in the game. I stand corrected.

I don't think the country can afford to join with NI so I expect that they will have to bring in a Unification Tax. Temporarily of course :rolleyes: Would 5 grand from every adult in Ireland be enough? The reality is you have no idea how it will be paid for and you don't care what it will cost everyone. You just want your "birthright" of a united Ireland.

Did you have a chance to find that "thorough response" you wrote previously? I'd love to read it. And I did laugh at "getting shirty". Such a quaint phrase. Very British.

I seem to recall you saying that you are not an Irish citizen (though eligible to be through family ties, residency, British passport holder etc).

If that is the case, maybe you should think twice about advising Irish people what their 'birthright' should be as seemingly you have not shown full commitment to the Irish State or its people and will not have a say in a referendum north or south.

Yeah_Right

jm08 wrote: »

I seem to recall you saying that you are not an Irish citizen (though eligible to be through family ties, residency, British passport holder etc).

If that is the case, maybe you should think twice about advising Irish people what their 'birthright' should be as seemingly you have not shown full commitment to the Irish State or its people and will not have a say in a referendum north or south.

There it is. Tell the dirty foreigner to shut up and mind his own business. Welcome to Nationalist Ireland.

Yes I am eligible for Irish citizenship through marriage and residency. Simply haven't gotten round to doing the paperwork. It won't matter to people like you though will it. I will never be Irish in your eyes.

gormdubhgorm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

A poll will be called due to 'circumstances'.
Same as the first Scottish ref and the Brexit ref...circumstances that had nothing to do with popular opinion dictated the calling of them.

And NO British or Irish government is going to ignore a 50+1 vote. Imagine where they would be leading society here if Nationalists were told a majority didn't matter?

Under the GFA it is the NI Secretary of States call on when it 'appears likely' that a majority want a UI.

"Subject to paragraph 3, the Secretary of State shall exercise the power
under paragraph 1 if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of
those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to
be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland."


A 'feeling' that it might be 50 plus one would not be enough as it would be too close a call to appear likely. So the Secretary of State will not call it unless it is much clearer and there has been a clear change in any support for a UI.

Plus practically Republicans would not wish to call a border poll if the margins are very tight. As if they lost the poll it would mean it would be a slap in the face politically. And they would have to wait at least another 7 years for another border poll.

As you know Republicans are shrewd and would not risk really putting into action a border poll move unless they were very likely to win it. At the moment it is just a nice soundbite because they know the numbers are not there. Nothing more.

RobMc59

jm08 wrote: »

I seem to recall you saying that you are not an Irish citizen (though eligible to be through family ties, residency, British passport holder etc).

If that is the case, maybe you should think twice about advising Irish people what their 'birthright' should be as seemingly you have not shown full commitment to the Irish State or its people and will not have a say in a referendum north or south.

Yet you have no problem constantly telling British people where they're going wrong.Double standards yet again.

jm08

Yeah_Right wrote: »

There it is. Tell the dirty foreigner to shut up and mind his own business. Welcome to Nationalist Ireland.

Yes I am eligible for Irish citizenship through marriage and residency. Simply haven't gotten round to doing the paperwork. It won't matter to people like you though will it. I will never be Irish in your eyes.

As of now, even though you are eligible, you have not shown commitment to the Irish State or its people by ''bothering to do the paperwork''.


By not ''bothering'' to do the paperwork, you have decided yourself that you have no say and are indeed a foreigner in Ireland. Nothing to do with me. I personally welcome all people who chose to make Ireland their home and show commitment to the Irish State and its people by taking out citizenship.

jm08

RobMc59 wrote: »

Yet you have no problem constantly telling British people where they're going wrong.Double standards yet again.

Its the standard of the Irish State. You must be an Irish citizen to vote in a referendum to change the Irish Constitution.

munsterlegend

RobMc59 wrote: »

Yet you have no problem constantly telling British people where they're going wrong.Double standards yet again.

Says the apologist for state terrorism in Croke park.

gormdubhgorm

jm08 wrote: »

As of now, even though you are eligible, you have not shown commitment to the Irish State or its people by ''bothering to do the paperwork''.


By not ''bothering'' to do the paperwork, you have decided yourself that you have no say and are indeed a foreigner in Ireland. Nothing to do with me. I personally welcome all people who chose to make Ireland their home and show commitment to the Irish State and its people by taking out citizenship.

Why does the poster have to get Irish citizenship to show 'commitment' to the Irish state? He/She maybe proud of the citizenship they hold and has been a residence and working in the ROI for a long period? Should all the Eastern Europeans in Ireland take out Irish citizenship for example?

Your logic on what classes as 'commitment' sounds very indoctrinated and ideological.

munsterlegend

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

Why does the poster have to get Irish citizenship to show 'commitment' to the Irish state? He/She maybe proud of the citizenship they hold and has been a residence and working in the ROI for a long period? Should all the Eastern Europeans in Ireland take out Irish citizenship for example?

Your logic on what classes as 'commitment' sounds very indoctrinated and ideological.

Are you for real? You keep telling us what real Irish ‘republicans’ should speak, wear and watch on tv. Perhaps you should practice what you preach with regards indoctrination and ideology.

FrancieBrady

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

Under the GFA it is the NI Secretary of States call on when it 'appears likely' that a majority want a UI.

"Subject to paragraph 3, the Secretary of State shall exercise the power
under paragraph 1 if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of
those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to
be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland."


A 'feeling' that it might be 50 plus one would not be enough as it would be too close a call to appear likely. So the Secretary of State will not call it unless it is much clearer and there has been a clear change in any support for a UI.

Plus practically Republicans would not wish to call a border poll if the margins are very tight. As if they lost the poll it would mean it would be a slap in the face politically. And they would have to wait at least another 7 years for another border poll.

As you know Republicans are shrewd and would not risk really putting into action a border poll move unless they were very likely to win it. At the moment it is just a nice soundbite because they know the numbers are not there. Nothing more.

The reason there hasn't been a poll is that Unionists are petrified that the formal conversation would start.
They have the SoS's ear on it so far.
I personally think the SoS calling out the DUP for being singularly to blame for holding up a resumption of the Executive to be seismic.

As soon as the Dublin government gets something out of the Unity Unit then I think you will see a poll called. I would not doubt that a nod has been given to Dublin in diplomatic circles. Westminster will want to try and make it seem it is Dublin led rather than SF led for obvious vainglorious reasons. 'No surrender' and all that.

It has already been shown in the thread that after a legal test, the SoS does not have to show any evidence for his 'likely to pass' conclusion.

munsterlegend

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The reason there hasn't been a poll is that Unionists are petrified that the formal conversation would start.
They have the SoS's ear on it so far.
I personally think the SoS calling out the DUP for being singularly to blame for holding up a resumption of the Executive to be seismic.

As soon as the Dublin government gets something out of the Unity Unit then I think you will see a poll called. I would not doubt that a nod has been given to Dublin in diplomatic circles. Westminster will want to try and make it seem it is Dublin led rather than SF led for obvious vainglorious reasons. 'No surrender' and all that.

It has already been shown in the thread that after a legal test, the SoS does not have to show any evidence for his 'likely to pass' conclusion.

The Secretary of State can call a border poll whenever he/she wants.