Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IV - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

Arghus

growleaves wrote: »

Well it depends on the argument. If I haven't offered an opinion on something that shouldn't be taken as assent.

Oh, please, come on. You offer no opinion? Everything you post is anti-lockdown in nature.

growleaves

I have certainly come across - in this forum at least - what feels like each and every dissenting scientific voice.

There are far more scientists who have given contrary opinions. I can't translate from Greek, French, Portuguese, Spanish etc. and I'm not being paid to post here all day.

Usually the sceptical-of-lockdown scientists we do see linked here have made Youtube videos presenting their views in a way that's accessible to the public.

There are enough differing scientists that talk of a 'consensus' (a word we know from climatology debates) would be totally misleading.

Arghus

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

Jayesdiem

Arghus wrote: »

Well, if you could find some compelling evidence to the contrary I'd certainly be all for being convinced.

None of us here are - I presume - epidemiologists or experts in infectious disease. So we have to go on the words of those we assume to know more about this than ourselves.

The prevailing view from experts - of course there's people who differ, but they are the minority opinion - has been all along that lockdowns are a crude, but effective means of curbing the spread of an infectious disease.

There's also the strong coincidence that the spread of the virus and the imposition of lockdown have synced up pretty much as expected. If lockdowns aren't effective, it's amazingly coincidental that they very much appear to be.

So, yes, no-one has proven it be untrue, but there's also strong arguments in it's favour.

I also don't believe that you apply the same level of sceptical enquiry to "anti-lockdown" arguments. I think you give them a free pass.

Have you ever heard of Neil Ferguson? If you have, you certainly don’t indicate so based on your opinion of lockdowns. If you haven’t heard of him, go and find out why I’ve brought his name up. Otherwise, drop your deeply flawed argument.

Penfailed

Jayesdiem wrote: »

Reread it. My “life”. The sore throat made me feel my life was in danger except it didn’t.

Yeah. Typo. It was a tongue in cheek post. Nevermind.

Tokyo

Juwwi wrote: »

I wonder how much Gemma pays the troops to be on this thread per hour ,, even at €1 an hour I'd say there is good money to be made .

Mod: Stupid post is stupid. Don't post in the thread again.

Juwwi

MickeyLeari wrote: »

So anyone who thinks there should be an easing in the unnatural lock down is a fascist?

So you can count FF, Labour, IBEC, Michael O’Leary, Ivan Yates, Michael Smurfit et al all as fascists?

Your very touchy for someone who only joined 2 days ago ,

Jayesdiem

Juwwi wrote: »

Your very touchy for someone who only joined 2 days ago ,

Question: why would someone who joined only two days ago be any more, or less, “touchy” than someone who was here longer than two days? Do you have a theory for this unusual phenomenon? I’m fascinated to know the answer to this so please do respond.

Harry Palmr

The UK is unlocking with a track and trace system that doesn't work. We should be watching them closely to see what might happen.

As for O'Leary why would anyone take a lead from him?

Gael23

Any truth in this?
https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/government-considering-scrapping-coronavirus-travel-restrictions-three-weeks-early-1002640.html

Professor Moriarty

Arghus wrote: »

How is it an extraordinary claim?

Look at the advice that government's have acted on all over the world. Clearly there's a prevailing opinion out there that lockdowns are effective. To claim otherwise is self evidently false.

Whatever about the mainstream media. I have certainly come across - in this forum at least - what feels like each and every dissenting scientific voice. Obviously these people exist, but to make out that their voices are as numerous as the opposing side? No, I don't believe that's true.

This thread is an outlier. The large majority of people in the real world understand why the restrictions exist and are compliant. Which is why our infection rate is so low. But here you'll get wums. You'll get stupid people. You'll get people who think that a billionaire like Michael O'Leary knows better how to run a country in a pandemic than experts from the HSE, Dept of Finance, Dept of Business, Enterprise and Innovation etc. Ergo, it's not a thread to be taken seriously when it comes to reasoned and informed discussion.

road_high

Gael23 wrote: »

Any truth in this?
https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/government-considering-scrapping-coronavirus-travel-restrictions-three-weeks-early-1002640.html

More kite flying. Very predictably in the Sunday papers too. It’ll mean over ruling the non stop drivel coming from Nphet though which would be a major departure in policy and a massive victory for common sense

gral6

Harry Palmr wrote: »

As for O'Leary why would anyone take a lead from him?

Don't worry ! We are taking a lead from Tony Holohan !
He would be a whipping boy if everything goes into ****.
He managed to get away once with cervical tests scandals, hopefully he'll be pinned now, at least for their failure with nursing homes!

prunudo

Gael23 wrote: »

Any truth in this?
https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/government-considering-scrapping-coronavirus-travel-restrictions-three-weeks-early-1002640.html

Still too slow, distance restriction needs to be scrapped immediately.

MickeyLeari

Interesting to see that article in the Indo. What is also interesting is the number of articles which are turning on the Government in terms of its response to lifting the sanctions and specifically the treatment of SMEs.

I expect that this message will sink in and if the Government does not move fast they will be damaged politically on this one.

pjohnson

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

This thread is an outlier. The large majority of people in the real world understand why the restrictions exist and are compliant. Which is why our infection rate is so low. But here you'll get wums. You'll get stupid people. You'll get people who think that a billionaire like Michael O'Leary knows better how to run a country in a pandemic than experts from the HSE, Dept of Finance, Dept of Business, Enterprise and Innovation etc. Ergo, it's not a thread to be taken seriously when it comes to reasoned and informed discussion.

It should be treated as the comedic parody it is. Jaysus help anyone who thinks its in anyway connected with reality.

Jayesdiem

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

This thread is an outlier. The large majority of people in the real world understand why the restrictions exist and are compliant. Which is why our infection rate is so low. But here you'll get wums. You'll get stupid people. You'll get people who think that a billionaire like Michael O'Leary knows better how to run a country in a pandemic than experts from the HSE, Dept of Finance, Dept of Business, Enterprise and Innovation etc. Ergo, it's not a thread to be taken seriously when it comes to reasoned and informed discussion.

This is the typical last resort of someone who simply doesn’t agree with the logical arguments that are put their way, yet has no way to intelligently counter them. If all else fails, you can fall back on references to the “real world” and “what would business people know about a health crisis”. A willingness to consider that these medical experts are desperately trying to cover their arse to avoid any post-pandemic liability, and that their income will be untouched by this crisis no matter how long it lasts, never factors into your evaluation of the events. You are as backward and insane as the draconian measures that have crippled this country and worst of all, you’re revelling in it.

Ginger n Lemon

Arghus wrote: »

How is it an extraordinary claim?

Look at the advice that government's have acted on all over the world. Clearly there's a prevailing opinion out there that lockdowns are effective. To claim otherwise is self evidently false.

Whatever about the mainstream media. I have certainly come across - in this forum at least - what feels like each and every dissenting scientific voice. Obviously these people exist, but to make out that their voices are as numerous as the opposing side? No, I don't believe that's true.

You seem to be obsessed with proving or disproving whether lockdowns work or not, being obviously convinced they do, but you forget most important thing, were they required?

"Norway health chief: lockdown was not needed to tame Covid

Norwegian public health authority has published a report with a striking conclusion: the virus was never spreading as fast as had been feared and was already on the way out when lockdown was ordered. ‘It looks as if the effective reproduction rate had already dropped to around 1.1 when the most comprehensive measures were implemented on 12 March"

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/norway-health-chief-lockdown-was-not-needed-to-tame-covid

Does this resemble some proof of what you are searching for?

KrustyUCC

Gael23 wrote: »

Any truth in this?
https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/government-considering-scrapping-coronavirus-travel-restrictions-three-weeks-early-1002640.html

Hopefully it will be accurate but getting around Tony Holohan will be another story

Ginger n Lemon

Half of all Irish businesses, let that sink in

Almost half of Irish businesses believe that they will be out of business within six months if the current situation continues, according to a new survey.

Half of firms fear closure as calls for €3bn scheme mount
Warning that supports available are not adequate to tackle scale of problem

https://www.independent.ie/business/small-business/half-of-firms-fear-closure-as-calls-for-3bn-scheme-mount-39245655.html

Note it says "within 6 months" it doesnt mean AFTER 6 months. It means with every week passing by Irish businesses will be liquidating/going bankrupt.

Expect either mass poverty or serious accelerating of lifting restrictions, I hope for all of our sake its the latter.

Professor Moriarty

Jayesdiem wrote: »

This is the typical last resort of someone who simply doesn’t agree with the logical arguments that are put their way, yet has no way to intelligently counter them. If all else fails, you can fall back on references to the “real world” and “what would business people know about a health crisis”. A willingness to consider that these medical experts are desperately trying to cover their arse to avoid any post-pandemic liability, and that their income will be untouched by this crisis no matter how long it lasts, never factors into your evaluation of the events. You are as backward and insane as the draconian measures that have crippled this country and worst of all, you’re revelling in it.

I'm "backward and insane". QED

Stheno

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Hopefully it will be accurate but getting around Tony Holohan will be another story

In fairness all Leo has to do is thank Tony for his input and talk to the Cabinet to agree what they (the Cabinet) feel is the best overall steps to take, no?

Pitch n Putt

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Hopefully it will be accurate but getting around Tony Holohan will be another story

Who is Tony Holohan in reality only an over cautious advisor.

Yes take his and other experts advice onboard in decision making but look around and see the truth of the situation.

The virus is and was suppressed for weeks now.

The experts are being way over cautious at this stage and looking at this with an end result of zero cases being their target medically.

All well and good but we can’t wait for zero we just can’t.

Next Monday phase 2/3/4 should be starting with people now aware of distancing and businesses with precautions in place

At this stage with the current numbers the only difference to start next week or July is a loss of a months income for these businesses

Leo needs to lead now and get things moving. No more time for hiding behind the advisors.

MickeyLeari

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

This thread is an outlier. The large majority of people in the real world understand why the restrictions exist and are compliant. Which is why our infection rate is so low. But here you'll get wums. You'll get stupid people. You'll get people who think that a billionaire like Michael O'Leary knows better how to run a country in a pandemic than experts from the HSE, Dept of Finance, Dept of Business, Enterprise and Innovation etc. Ergo, it's not a thread to be taken seriously when it comes to reasoned and informed discussion.

I agree that the large majority of people are compliant (I certainly am) but it is clear that many people now are of the view that it is too slow and that there is little sense in what they are saying - Ikea, curtains, the 2 hour rule, quarantining etc. Funnily enough members of the Cabinet including several who are no longer TDs have judged the pulse of the country a little better than those who are in group think.

Michael O’Leary is a highly successful businessman who has shown a huge amount of loyalty to this country. He has been a disrupter in the airline industry to build one of strongest businesses financially in that sector. This Sector is one that will be very different at the end of the year than it was at the beginning with many business fillings expected. He is seeing countries like Italy, Spain, Greece, Croatia, France, Germany, Austria and so on open up their airports and tourist markets in line with the single market and indeed with the encouragement of the EU Commission.

What he sees is a country which decides to shut the stable door after the horse has bolted and introduce the strictest regime in the EU - not based on risk but on a mantra. This will unnecessarily harm his company but he also sees it as harming the Irish economy and he is right. We are a very well connected country - The small open economy part is a critical seeking point for investment. Thankfully it seems that message is getting through and rather than having a blanket strategy the Government is now (according to media reports) looking at random testing etc.

And quite frankly O’Leary is far better qualified economically than the experts in the HSE - I don’t think anyone can argue that our health service has punched above its weight since the founding of the State - only 4 months ago the non performance of the health service and the Minister was a key factor in FG losing quite a lot of seats.

the kelt

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

This thread is an outlier. The large majority of people in the real world understand why the restrictions exist and are compliant. Which is why our infection rate is so low. But here you'll get wums. You'll get stupid people. You'll get people who think that a billionaire like Michael O'Leary knows better how to run a country in a pandemic than experts from the HSE, Dept of Finance, Dept of Business, Enterprise and Innovation etc. Ergo, it's not a thread to be taken seriously when it comes to reasoned and informed discussion.

Ah the old “well everyone I know thinks your opinion is a load of rubbish” response is always a winning argument when it comes to debate.

KrustyUCC

Stheno wrote: »

In fairness all Leo has to do is thank Tony for his input and talk to the Cabinet to agree what they (the Cabinet) feel is the best overall steps to take, no?

That's the way it should work alright

Whether that's the way it will work I'd be highly sceptical

They couldn't even get opening up phase one right with the farce about IKEA and homeware stories so it's hard to see them abandoning the uber cautious approach

MickeyLeari

Pitch n Putt wrote: »

At this stage with the current numbers the only difference to start next week or July is a loss of a months income for these businesses

I agree with your post but as a clarification - for many of those businesses (Particularly in seasonal hospitality) that month’s income may well be 30/40% of annual revenues - that month may well be the difference between the business ever opening up again. Another key point is the messaging which gives very little certainty to business - are they opening, are they not...Is it 2 metres or 1 metre etc.

ZX7R

Gael23 wrote: »

Any truth in this?
https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/government-considering-scrapping-coronavirus-travel-restrictions-three-weeks-early-1002640.html

No smoke without fire as they say,
Well after this bank holiday weekend overtime for the Garda will have dried up so they will only carry out official duty.
Won't be enough Garda to man the extra road blocks to enforce any quarantine travel restrictions as Garda on there down time are required to work them.

MickeyLeari

KrustyUCC wrote: »

That's the way it should work alright

Whether that's the way it will work I'd be highly sceptical

They couldn't even get opening up phase one right with the farce about IKEA and homeware stories so it's hard to see them abandoning the uber cautious approach

I suggested yesterday that the way the Government makes that work is to stop the daily presser, and revert to the normal decision making process in line with the constitution and the Cabinet handbook. https://assets.gov.ie/6813/2a580791a7b24decb97a550539a0faff.pdf

gral6

I wonder what Tony Holohan is prepared for us for the next week?
He's not gonna recommend any restriction to be lifted...