Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IV - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

joeguevara

joeguevara wrote: »

Do you think the amount who died would have been the same if we didn't do all of the above. Please look at Sweden before you answer that.

Ah, the Sweden argument again...

Sweden have a population of 10M and they only have 5619 deaths without ever going into the sort of lockdown that we did. I'm not quite sure how they count their deaths, but if its anything like us the figures are possibly even less again.

Sweden are PROOF that lockdown really didn't achieve much of anything.
Without lockdown, millions didn't die.

With lockdown, their numbers might be slightly better. I'm no expert on Sweden, but I imagine they are still screening for cancer and other serious illness. So they may well come out of this better in the longer term.

The important thing to remember with Covid is that we were told this would be a very serious illness that could kill millions. We still have some way to go before even hitting 1M deaths worldwide.

joeguevara

Deleted User wrote: »

Ah, the Sweden argument again...

Sweden have a population of 10M and they only have 5619 deaths without ever going into the sort of lockdown that we did. I'm not quite sure how they count their deaths, but if its anything like us the figures are possibly even less again.

Sweden are PROOF that lockdown really didn't achieve much of anything.
Without lockdown, millions didn't die.

With lockdown, their numbers might be slightly better. I'm no expert on Sweden, but I imagine they are still screening for cancer and other serious illness. So they may well come out of this better in the longer term.

The important thing to remember with Covid is that we were told this would be a very serious illness that could kill millions. We still have some way to go before even hitting 1M deaths worldwide.

But you are forgetting that even without lockdown their economy tanked.

HeidiHeidi

Deleted User wrote: »

The important thing to remember with Covid is that we were told this would be a very serious illness that could kill millions. We still have some way to go before even hitting 1M deaths worldwide.

And you really can't think of a reason why that is? Really?

facehugger99

joeguevara wrote: »

But you are forgetting that even without lockdown their economy tanked.

Goalpost move ahoy!

tobefrank321

joeguevara wrote: »

But you are forgetting that even without lockdown their economy tanked.

Sweden will have got it right or relatively right if there is a major second wave in the rest of Europe which causes more deaths and more general lockdowns which destroys their economies. Sweden closed down big sports events but they still kept open pubs, gyms, restaurants and hotels and saved many jobs in those sectors.

Its surprising that Sweden has not had more deaths. Some experts said they'd have close to 100,000 if they didn't close down.

As for their economy tanking, much of that is related to the rest of Europe tanking. Open economies like Sweden are only as strong as the countries they export to.

PTH2009

so what has changed today compared to last week ??

HeidiHeidi

HeidiHeidi wrote: »

And you really can't think of a reason why that is? Really?

If you are suggesting it is because of lockdowns... look at Sweden.

They didn't lockdown and their death toll is very small.

Nowhere even remotely near to the figures that the experts and the models were predicting - the figures used to justify having a lockdown.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Sweden will have got it right or relatively right if there is a major second wave in the rest of Europe which causes more deaths and more general lockdowns which destroys their economies. Sweden closed down big sports events but they still kept open pubs, gyms, restaurants and hotels and saved many jobs in those sectors.

Its surprising that Sweden has not had more deaths. Some experts said they'd have close to 100,000 if they didn't close down.

How will Sweden have got it right if there is a second wave ?
Their latest figures from antibody tests at 6.1% nationally are no better than anywhere else that used lockdown. In fact for their epicenter of infections, Stockholm their figures are worse that similar in both Spain and Italy.
They mat have kept open pubs, restaurants and hotels etc. but a survey by Danske Bank found consumer spending was just 4% greater in Sweden than Denmark in lockdown.

tobefrank321

charlie14 wrote: »

How will Sweden have got it right if there is a second wave ?
Their latest figures from antibody tests at 6.1% nationally are no better than anywhere else that used lockdown. In fact for their epicenter of infections, Stockholm their figures are worse that similar in both Spain and Italy.
They mat have kept open pubs, restaurants and hotels etc. but a survey by Danske Bank found consumer spending was just 4% greater in Sweden than Denmark in lockdown.

We've already established that Sweden are not currently pursuing the herd immunity route and if they were, they are doing it incredibly badly.

What Sweden is doing is keeping its economy and life open as much as possible. You cannot seriously dispute that; open pubs, gyms, schools, hotels and restaurants all through covid 19, shut in most if not all other countries.

4% consumer spending difference could equal 100,000 jobs for all you know. You can measure a 1% change in GDP for example in tens of thousands of jobs.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

If you are suggesting it is because of lockdowns... look at Sweden.

They didn't lockdown and their death toll is very small.

Nowhere even remotely near to the figures that the experts and the models were predicting - the figures used to justify having a lockdown.

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

Speaks for itself

PTH2009

PTH2009 wrote: »

so what has changed today compared to last week ??

We have proof now that the case numbers are not rising. The only thing that increased hugely was the number of tests carried out.

But NPHET and the government already know this.
They just used it as an excuse not to open the pubs, which they are reluctant to do anyways as they are terrified to make decisions.

charlie14

Deleted User wrote: »

If you are suggesting it is because of lockdowns... look at Sweden.

They didn't lockdown and their death toll is very small.

Nowhere even remotely near to the figures that the experts and the models were predicting - the figures used to justify having a lockdown.

Sweden`s modelling figures to justify their strategy on immunity were also nowhere near their actual test results, and with a death rate 5 times that of Denmark, 9 times that of Finland and 13 times that of Norway, all neighbouring countries, I would not call it small.

joeguevara

Deleted User wrote: »

We have proof now that the case numbers are not rising. The only thing that increased hugely was the number of tests carried out.

But NPHET and the government already know this.
They just used it as an excuse not to open the pubs, which they are reluctant to do anyways as they are terrified to make decisions.

Is the decision not to open pubs which were due to open not a decision?

skallywag

Deleted User wrote: »

The important thing to remember with Covid is that we were told this would be a very serious illness that could kill millions. We still have some way to go before even hitting 1M deaths worldwide.

It has killed 600K in ca 6 months, hence, without any major leap of imagination I would wager that it is indeed going to kill millions.

Allinall

Deleted User wrote: »

We have proof now that the case numbers are not rising. The only thing that increased hugely was the number of tests carried out.

But NPHET and the government already know this.
They just used it as an excuse not to open the pubs, which they are reluctant to do anyways as they are terrified to make decisions.

They made the decision not to open the pubs.

How is that being terrified?

joeguevara

joeguevara wrote: »

Is the decision not to open pubs which were due to open not a decision?

Nope, its kicking the can further down the road. "Lets just see how things are in 3 weeks"

skallywag

skallywag wrote: »

It has killed 600K in ca 6 months, hence, without any major leap of imagination I would wager that it is indeed going to kill millions.

Perhaps if there is no vaccine and it sticks around for years to come.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Perhaps if there is no vaccine and it sticks around for years to come.

At current rates it will reach 2 million before the end of next year, and that's not counting the steady 2% per week increase over the past 2 months

tobefrank321

Deleted User wrote: »

We have proof now that the case numbers are not rising. The only thing that increased hugely was the number of tests carried out.

But NPHET and the government already know this.
They just used it as an excuse not to open the pubs, which they are reluctant to do anyways as they are terrified to make decisions.

That's a good point.

20 positives with a positivity rate of 0.3% is far better than 20 positives with a positivity rate of 10% which it was back in March and when people with symptoms couldn't even get a test.

Seweryn

Another country you can look at is Japan.

Since the Japanese didn’t follow other countries, you might expect that the death total from C. in Japan would be terrifyingly high.
It wasn’t.
The Japanese death total from Cov. to date is less than 1k with the population of 126.5 million living on top of each other. So nearly 50 times lower per head than here with population spread higher than almost in any other country of that size.

Maybe their statistics are... more honest?

At the end of the day, all of the hysteria around Covid is based on the fact that people thought millions would die.
We are only on 600000 after over half a year. And we knew nothing about it for large parts of the year.
Thankfully we'll never get anywhere close to the numbers predicted.

Hunger kills more people than Covid. And not people in their 80's. Young kids.
And no vaccine is needed, they just need to be fed.
And there is no hysteria or closing down of the world to address it.

That should be the real headline in all of this. For people who champion "putting lives first"

Seweryn

Seweryn wrote: »

Another country you can look at is Japan.

Since the Japanese didn’t follow other countries, you might expect that the death total from C. in Japan would be terrifyingly high.
It wasn’t.
The Japanese death total from Cov. to date is less than 1k with the population of 126.5 million living on top of each other. So nearly 50 times lower per head than here with population spread higher than almost in any other country of that size.

Maybe their statistics are... more honest?

Japan did nothing? They didn't postpone the Olympics? They are not already admitting that the may need to cancel altogether next year due to the seriousness of the situation?
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/apr/29/tokyo-olympics-not-reliant-on-covid-19-vaccine-senior-ioc-member

And they are staring to see a new surge in cases having initially contained it brilliantly

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/japan/

facehugger99

Deleted User wrote: »

At the end of the day, all of the hysteria around Covid is based on the fact that people thought millions would die.
We are only on 600000 after over half a year. And we knew nothing about it for large parts of the year.
Thankfully we'll never get anywhere close to the numbers predicted.

Hunger kills more people than Covid. And not people in their 80's. Young kids.
And no vaccine is needed, they just need to be fed.
And there is no hysteria or closing down of the world to address it.

That should be the real headline in all of this. For people who champion "putting lives first"

People aren't paid €350 to sit on their holes watching Netflix to combat world hunger unfortunately.

charlie14

tobefrank321 wrote: »

We've already established that Sweden are not currently pursuing the herd immunity route and if they were, they are doing it incredibly badly.

What Sweden is doing is keeping its economy and life open as much as possible. You cannot seriously dispute that; open pubs, gyms, schools, hotels and restaurants all through covid 19, shut in most if not all other countries.

4% consumer spending difference could equal 100,000 jobs for all you know. You can measure a 1% change in GDP for example in tens of thousands of jobs.

I know from your point of view you would prefer if people believed that Sweden were not pursuing herd immunity, but if there were ever any doubts, then Annika Linde the Swedish state epidemiologist prior to Anders Tegnell cleared that up.

She recently stated that while she initially backed the herd immunity strategy she now knows it was "like a dream with no basis in reality" and Sweden would have saved lives by using lockdown.




As far as the I.M.F.are concerned that 4% consumer spend hasn`t improved Sweden`s projected GDP compared to its Nordic neighbours who used lockdown.
Sweden -6.8%, Finland -6.0%, Denmark -6.5% Norway -6.3%

6 cases today...

Incredible that pubs will remain closed for 3 more weeks at least.

MickeyLeari

[Deleted User] wrote: »

6 cases today...

Incredible that pubs will remain closed for 3 more weeks at least.

That will bring the 14 day average down and exclude Greece and Italy from the Green list.

PTH2009

Deleted User wrote: »

6 cases today...

Incredible that pubs will remain closed for 3 more weeks at least.

great numbers

another bank holiday weekend missed for the pubs, it should of been 'ok we will review the pub situation in regards number of cases etc on the 27th July with possible opening that week' but no

facehugger99

Deleted User wrote: »

6 cases today...

Incredible that pubs will remain closed for 3 more weeks at least.

Strange use of the word "but" in the RTE headline.

"6 new cases but no further deaths" - Like we're supposed to be scared about the 6 cases and soothed by the fact here's no deaths?

Lundstram

PTH2009 wrote: »

great numbers

another bank holiday weekend missed for the pubs, it should of been 'ok we will review the pub situation in regards number of cases etc on the 27th July with possible opening that week' but no

They cosed down a pub today in Limerick, they didn't serve food but the guy had the place well done up for SD and the like. But they still closed him down. 6 cases on the same day.

Farcical.

PTH2009

Lundstram wrote: »

They cosed down a pub today in Limerick, they didn't serve food but the guy had the place well done up for SD and the like. But they still closed him down. 6 cases on the same day.

Farcical.

Yer man who owns the pub shouldn't of opened his mouth and was prob expecting to be closed. Inviting the media

If he was left off no stopping other places doing the same