Is there a chance it could just die off completely?

ednwireland

MickeyLeari wrote: »

We should open up the country to EU member States. Not sure right now on flights from U.K. and US.

the problem is they wont open to us because of the border with the uk

Jamie2k9

ednwireland wrote: »

the problem is they wont open to us because of the border with the uk

That is not true, nothing to do with border.

Mrcaramelchoc

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

That is not true, nothing to do with border.

I think he means the uk have a high infection rate and we have a land border with them as in northern ireland.im open to correction.

Jamie2k9

Mrcaramelchoc wrote: »

I think he means the uk have a high infection rate and we have a land border with them.im open to correction.

UK has a high infection rate and our open border is not why the US wont open up to Ireland. It was purely politics the two phased announcement of restrictions.

The virus will travel even if they opened ROI and still restricted UK.

ShineOn7

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

That is not true, nothing to do with border.

What is it then? Genuinely curious

Is it a Schengen Agreement thing? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Agreement

Charles Babbage

Singapore is the best guide for some of this.
The temperature never drops below 25C, so heat alone is not going to save the day, although people are clearly less likely to get it outside.
They had made progress with clearing it out, but imported cases staying in U boat style accommodation (foreign workers) brought it back. But now they only have cases in these foreigner worker barracks and little in the community.

Jamie2k9

ShineOn7 wrote: »

What is it then? Genuinely curious

Is it a Schengen Agreement thing? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Agreement

Taking the political points scoring out of the EU announcement yes I think Schengen played a part however many EU countries had closed borders and attention turned to internal politics in US banning travellers as a smoke screen to stop the spread. Not paid much attention to US but bet many cases imported didn't come from Europe.

UK and Ireland followed but its was always going to happen. It wouldn't surprise me if he lifts UK/ROI first however current protests in US and virus it will take longer.

The Irish media narrative on high rates in UK is just spin saying how well we did but in reality we should have did much better. Yes they have been badly hit but given the size they are in line with other European countries however death rates reported differently so a high headline figure is just that.

The 14 day isolation for travellers now is a prefect example of how un prepared Ireland was!

faceman

LiquidZeb wrote: »

Well one thing I find ridiculous is that the media haven't pointed it out at all. If there were mass gatherings here they'd absolutely nail people to the wall. I understand why people in America are angry, what happened was atrocious but surely they could carry out a social distanced protest like in Spain last week?

In fairness the protests aren’t comparable given the issue of racism in the US

MickeyLeari

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

UK has a high infection rate and our open border is not why the US wont open up to Ireland. It was purely politics the two phased announcement of restrictions.

The virus will travel even if they opened ROI and still restricted UK.

Trump is a people pleaser in person, and he was not going to ban travel to Ireland when he was meeting the Irish Prime Minister the next day.

ShineOn7

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Singapore is the best guide for some of this.

They had made progress with clearing it out, but imported cases staying in U boat style accommodation (foreign workers) brought it back

It's thought this is why Dubai's numbers are going the wrong way again too

blanch152

quokula wrote: »

Possible reasons that it is subsiding (in Ireland and across Europe generally)

1) Lockdown worked. This is the obvious, most likely reason. And is why there is a chance of it going back up as things are eased, and why it won't be eradicated globally any time soon as too many countries failed to lockdown adequately
2) Social distancing works. We can keep it down if we follow the rules, but there will always be the risk of complacency and there will always be some level of transmission
3) It's seasonal. It doesn't like hot temps / people getting vitamin D / whatever. In which case it will be back later in the year
4) Herd Immunity. This is one way to kill it off permanently, but antibody tests suggest nowhere is close to that, and to get there would mean an order of magnitude more deaths than we've seen so far
5) The virus has weakened somehow. Some posters above have alluded to that, but virus mutations don't work that way. When there is a new strain, the old strain doesn't just disappear. One possibility is a new strain that is both more virulent and less deadly, while still maintaining enough in common with the original strain to contribute to herd immunity. But there's no evidence of that happening
6) Pre-existing immunity. There are some hypotheses that a lot of people are already naturally immune, therefore far fewer infections are needed to achieve herd immunity and we might be getting there. It's not impossible but there's little evidence supporting this theory right now

On the balance of probabilities, I don't think it's just going to go away on its own. We may see eventual herd immunity but it will be years not months, and a great many deaths in the meantime. A concerted strict global lockdown could kill it off but that will never happen.

The best hope continues to be continuing research into a vaccine (which could kill it off everywhere it's rolled out), treatments (which could allow herd immunity to be reached without the body count), and improved understanding of transmission and improved testing (which could help us limit the spread much more with less draconian measures than are currently needed)

Of those you have listed, the first three are the most likely. That is scary, because all of them mean it will come back, once people relax or the months turn into autumn and winter.

dublinman1990

I think we will be a little bit luckier here with the social distancing sticking around until the autumn & winter to reduce further spread of Covid-19. The only chances you could get it are if the restrictions are eased for normal healthy people that go to workplaces who are not wearing any face coverings where there could be larger numbers of people confined to being inside one room or one floor of a department within an office setting unless they are told by their employer to WFH to reduce the spread of a second wave. But company managers within office facilities around the country could tell their employees to still WFH in future if they have the choice to do it once the lockdown restrictions are eased over the summer. The lessened demand on PT would help allow the rest of the population to use it while taking one pair of seats for themselves on a bus or on a train once they are back doing their commutes for work if they cannot WFH.

In retail settings; people working within the majority of that sector can take the right approach in introducing things like social distancing indoors whilst telling every customer to wear face masks & doing daily temperature checks on people who are only meant to come in to buy something from their retail stores. But I would believe the amount of people who are just browsing in shops by doing 'window shopping' without buying anything are not really seen as making the sustained efforts made over the past few months to make it last that little bit longer in further reducing the spread of the virus. They cannot be seen to make themselves look foolish in the eyes of society with their attempts to be looking good in that they could in theory increase of the risk of spreading the virus to everyone close to them once again. If people contributing to this sector really want to be strict with people avoiding a second wave of Covid-19 here in future; measures like these will have to be taken by everybody living here by the scruff of their necks if that is what is to be required as a priority to stop it for good.

And then you have the hospitals, nursing/care homes & clusters having much more serious risks of the virus. It can be beneficial for us in the short to medium term if the HSE tell us here that restrictions on visiting our loved ones/relatives within these settings will be extended for some time to come an end to maybe until the end of the year or beyond that if no progress is being seen to reduce the spread. That would mean less chances for us to get sick from the virus and more time to do normal things at home in day to day life.

Over the weekend; there were figures reported in the news that 220,000 people here are taking part in cycling for exercise. Let's say if you could translate that massive increase in cycling activity to people commuting to work once the restrictions are over; that could make a bigger difference in lessening demand for PT here when the country gets back to work. But the thing that I worry about is that we don't actually know what type of demographics are taking part in this increased cycling activity across the country who are able to use them for work in the short to medium term. We don't know how big this increase in bicycle usage can be translated to meaningful decreases in PT demand as we go through the remainder of the year. It all depends on what parts of the country that they live in & how far is their workplace to travel for work from their own homes.

If the majority of people in Ireland own a car; they might take the car more often for work everyday then taking PT. But there could be a risk that more traffic jams could increase the risk of spreading the virus which means that we could be back to square one all over again without leaving car windows closed & by not wearing face coverings on their way to work.

I know these are only my thoughts on what could happen with the spread of this virus here being non existent for the moment. But nobody living here in Ireland & around the world, including myself, can accurately predict when this virus can be ended for good. Place like the U.S. could see more cases becoming very evident when the race protests are now in full swing for the next while. Other tropical countries may not see a clearer way out either if their strategies for getting rid of the virus is known to be a severe failure.

MOH

LiquidZeb wrote: »

Well one thing I find ridiculous is that the media haven't pointed it out at all. If there were mass gatherings here they'd absolutely nail people to the wall. I understand why people in America are angry, what happened was atrocious but surely they could carry out a social distanced protest like in Spain last week?

Unfortunately absolutely zero sign of anyone being nailed to the wall for the Instagram parade here today. Not even acknowledged as an issue in the media coverage.

Pete_Cavan

blanch152 wrote: »

Of those you have listed, the first three are the most likely. That is scary, because all of them mean it will come back, once people relax or the months turn into autumn and winter.

The virus doesn't have to come back, it will always be there for however long (take your pick of a timeframe in the poll). The supposed second wave is not the virus having gone and coming back, it's a resurgence with cases growing again (to what extent, again take your pick). There will be differences from what we have already experienced with a second wave (if it does happen); social distancing wfh and other control measures are now the norm, there is likely over 100,000 people including most health care workers with antibodies so it shouldn't spread so fast, many of the most vulnerable have already died so death rates won't be so severe, more knowledge, improved medical treatment and more experience will keep more people alive, etc.

Even if there is a second wave, it probably won't be as bad as a lot of people seem to think. We can also watch other countries who have largely opened up weeks ago to see if a resurgence happens there, no sign yet as cases continue to drop despite bars, restaurants, hairdressers, etc being open. If a second wave is a thing, we will witness it elsewhere first and can react accordingly.

Hmmzis

The death rate is going to be lower due to improved nursing protocols in hospitals, even if the current antivirals don't pan out to be effective.
Also, there are some clinical studies suggesting giving interferon to risk group cases early on reduces severity and mortality.

What could scupper that is if the cases come in faster than our hospitals can churn them over. That's when we'll be back to ~1% avg mortality rates (or a bit higher if it's really fast coming).

Pete_Cavan

Hmmzis wrote: »

What could scupper that is if the cases come in faster than our hospitals can churn them over. That's when we'll be back to ~1% avg mortality rates (or a bit higher if it's really fast coming).

But the chances of that level of growth in cases is extremely low, for reasons we have both outlined. Hospitals coped with the peak (although probably just about and thanks to huge effort from the staff) and will be better equipped to handle it if cases start growing, even the fact now that so many health care workers have had the virus will mean less absenteeism which will help.

ShineOn7

Great, positive article from the wonderful Professor Luke O'Neill

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/health-family/prof-luke-o-neill-it-s-definitely-beatable-covid-19-1.4258229?mode=amp

I ask him the question I most want to know the answer to. When we say “this too shall pass”, will it actually pass?

“No question,” he says instantly. “The history of all infectious diseases tells us this. The Black Death went away. The 1918 flu went away. Swine flu went away. It’s definitely beatable, this one.


“The number of vaccines being tested is the same in the total history of malaria. If the vaccine doesn’t work, and there’s still a risk of that, we have the anti-inflammatories coming down the pipeline, like our one. We have the antivirals. And then the other hope is antibodies themselves, that we’ll develop immunity.”

4068ac1elhodqr

^ History also shows that the 1918 Spanish flu only went away after a (more severe) 2nd wave in the winter of that year.

ShineOn7

Ray High Wart wrote: »

^ History also shows that the 1918 Spanish flu only went away after a (more severe) 2nd wave in the winter of that year.

Spanish Flu comparisons have been debunked over and over and over again

Very different times back then

4068ac1elhodqr

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Spanish Flu ...

The Spanish Flu (wave 2) has just been debunked, or never happened?



Well this is fresh news, someone better update the aul school books.

Bear in mind on the (average) day (2019/2020) there are 100,000+ planes full of folks (millions!), taking to the skies, everywhere around the world.

Yes, 'different times' now, thanks to globalisation (more spread), check out Wuhan Nov/Dec, 2019 for a clue.

ShineOn7

Ray High Wart wrote: »

The Spanish Flu (wave 2) has just been debunked, or never happened?

The Spanish Flu (wave 2) comparisons to Covid have

Two completely different eras of hygiene and medical standards

4068ac1elhodqr

ShineOn7 wrote: »

The Spanish Flu (wave 2) comparisons to Covid have
Two completely different eras of hygiene and medical standards

Two completely diffferent eras of mass travel, globalisation, population density, urbanisation, mass public transport, retailing, sports, concerts, social facilities...

...of a virus that has no medical cure, or medical prevention, other than a physical mask (not generally capable of <0.125 micron filtration), and dabs of handgel after each unique public surface contact.

If anything it will boil down to a matter of 'luck' (if it weakens) and continuation of extreme public vigilance.

Once there is 1,000s out marching (as recently shown) and the re-opening of society the risks of a 2nd wave will naturally increase while post-immunity levels remain below e.g. 10%.

e.g. Africa hasn't even peaked yet, while as Europe is past-peak, when it does it could be the source of new waves.

leanin2019

Ray High Wart wrote: »

e.g. Africa hasn't even peaked yet, while as Europe is past-peak, when it does it could be the source of new waves.

Apparently India hasn't peaked yet either, Population over 1BN.

If it spread globally from China, one would wonder about the risk of it doing around circle.

Granted there are stricter quarantine rules etc now protecting against that...... but for how long..... and to what extent?

greensheep777

leanin2019 wrote: »

Apparently India hasn't peaked yet either, Population over 1BN.

If it spread globally from China, one would wonder about the risk of it doing around trip around the world.

Granted there are stricter quarantine rules etc now protecting against that...... but for how long..... and to what extent?

I think India will be pretty screwed given the lack of ICU beds and millions living in slums. Their growth now is where Ireland was 2 months ago.

bb1234567

The situation is odd in India. One would expect explosive growth in those living conditions, but it has been increasing in a relatively stable way recently. Who knows when the peak may be, it could turn out very high, but looks like they are far from disaster so far anyway.

Average of 4000 cases and 100 deaths daily in middle May, average of 8000 cases and 200 deaths daily now in early June. Though there has been consistent growth almost every single day for the last month

greensheep777

bb1234567 wrote: »

The situation is odd in India. One would expect explosive growth in those living conditions, but it has been increasing in a relatively stable way recently. Who knows when the peak may be, it could turn out very high, but looks like they are far from disaster so far anyway.

Average of 4000 cases and 100 deaths daily in middle May, average of 8000 cases and 200 deaths daily now in early June. Though there has been consistent growth almost every single day for the last month

A lot of poverty in India. Big issues with access to healthcare. Would presume that includes testing but could be wrong. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Healthcare_in_India#Healthcare_system

bb1234567

greensheep777 wrote: »

A lot of poverty in India. Big issues with access to healthcare. Would presume that includes testing but could be wrong. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Healthcare_in_India#Healthcare_system

Perhaps but it is increasing simultaneously as deaths rise so it seems to just be a fairly stable rate of growth.

pinkyeye

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

The media laughed a lot when Donald T suggested the warm weather would kill it, who is laughing now?

In actual fact the general reason infection rate is falling is people are keeping a wide berth of people coughing piss laden death air around them and also are deciding to steer clear of U-boat style accommodation where you get in to a warm bed from the person sharing before you. Those in the nursing homes were killed by poorly paid staff not understanding the basics of how the virus could be spread. Those living in the nursing homes sadly couldn't regulate the basic hygiene of those feeding them, they assumed it would be a minimum standard and not staff coughing virus laden air in to their hands to then feed and make contact with them, healthcare 101 that they were failed on, criminal.

This is the most offensive post I've ever read, and the most ignorant too.

Staff in nursing homes are much MORE efficient at infection control than anyone else in this country. FACT.

What a disgusting thing to say about people who are paid minimum wage to look after our most vunerable citizens.

4068ac1elhodqr

The highest (global) daily cases number occured just a few days ago on 30 May, 128k (S.America factor).

Ideally (hopefully) it will just 'fizz out' before GAVI/Gates enforces a manditory 7,000,000,000 load of vaccines, but there is no guarantee of that.

greensheep777

bb1234567 wrote: »

Perhaps but it is increasing simultaneously as deaths rise so it seems to just be a fairly stable rate of growth.

Just had a look - approx 3k tests per million in India, compared to 70k in Ireland. Hopefully they can pick up the pace a bit.