Is there a chance it could just die off completely?

ShineOn7

greensheep777 wrote: »

Just had a look - approx 3k tests per million in India, compared to 70k in Ireland. Hopefully they can pick up the pace a bit.

Given their very, very densely populated cities, terrible health service, slum villages etc, how have India not been completely riddled more with this?

hi5

Average life expectancy in India is 69, so those who might have got it are already dead.

thelad95

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Given their very, very densely populated cities, terrible health service, slum villages etc, how have India not been completely riddled more with this?

What we see in statistics is never what the true death toll and cases will be, including in Ireland. I'd imagine the virus is sweeping through slums with ease but some of these people may not even be registered as humans that exist never mind that they are a victim of the coronavirus.

bb1234567

hi5 wrote: »

Average life expectancy in India is 69, so those who might have got it are already dead.

That is mostly because of so many dangerous child hood diseases still running rife there and bringing down the life expectancy. If an Indian makes it to adulthood, they will live a pretty long time like Westerners.

The life expectancy at age 70 in Punjab is 14 years for example
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/life-expectancy-improves-marginally-at-birth-to-69-years/articleshow/71041328.cms#:~:text=At%20age%2070%2C%20however%2C%20the,recorded%20the%20highest%20life%20expectancy.

36 in every 1000 children in India don't live past 5 years of age.
Only 3.6 children in every 1000 in Ireland die before 5 years of age
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_infant_and_under-five_mortality_rates

ShineOn7

bb1234567 wrote: »

The life expectancy at age 70 in Punjab is 14 years for example
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/life-expectancy-improves-marginally-at-birth-to-69-years/articleshow/71041328.cms#:~:text=At%20age%2070%2C%20however%2C%20the,recorded%20the%20highest%20life%20expectancy.

That's even better than Ireland

ShineOn7

This is Malaysia, where they've done an incredible job of keeping the numbers very low

The point still stands on the thoughts from their health Ministry though

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2020/06/08/no-vaccine-is-not-an-issue?fbclid=IwAR0M_tKSpSq8JWBCRbnyWqcB_3iIBCCO8TuE-sEhw3rb28gwvUIlgET8uI4

Its director-general Datuk Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah said while a Covid-19 vaccine is desirable, he noted that past experience with other coronaviruses, such as the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), showed that the chain of infection could be stopped without a vaccine.


“Until now there isn’t a vaccine, but by using public health measures, we managed to control the spread of MERS-CoV and SARS in our country.
“There is a possibility that even without a vaccine, we can break this chain of infection by following the SOP and recommendations, ” he said in his daily press briefing yesterday.

ShineOn7

This is the UK, where they were absolutely decimated with this. And yet, look at those numbers dropping more and more




And yet loads on here don't believe it can die off to nothing or next to nothing?



The pessimism is quite something

4068ac1elhodqr

The uk(bbc) said today they're up '64,000 deaths' on the same period last year, make of that what you will (bear in mind a mild winter for 19/20).

ShineOn7

Ray High Wart wrote: »

The uk(bbc) said today they're up '64,000 deaths' on the same period last year, make of that what you will (bear in mind a mild winter for 19/20).

I don't see how that relates to this dying off though. Almost every country had a surge and now the numbers continue to drop in them once they got past their peak

4068ac1elhodqr

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I don't see how that relates to this dying off though. Almost every country had a surge and now the numbers continue to drop in them once they got past their peak

Simply a twisting and hiding of likely accurate or true figures.
64k vs 40k and a mild winter, is 37.5% magically gone awol somewhere.

ShineOn7

Ray High Wart wrote: »

Simply a twisting and hiding of likely accurate or true figures.
64k vs 40k and a mild winter, is 37.5% magically gone awol somewhere.

They said they'd keep nursing home fatalities as a separate statistic, they mentioned that over a month ago

I still don't see how this relates to dropping numbers all over the world. Including countries who are back open for business again

This is America's weekly trajectory

4068ac1elhodqr

ShineOn7 wrote: »

They said they'd keep nursing home fatalities as a separate statistic, they mentioned that over a month ago

I still don't see how this relates to dropping numbers all over the world. Including countries who are back open for business again

Sure it's dropping, and is good trend.
Just highlighting a uk 37.5% figure error (they already included the nursing home suspected cases of COVID a good while ago).

November will the real test.

Also, suppose after the billions and billions invested via pharma and 'personas' in this huge cure industry. If it does suddenly weaken and dissapear. And also assuming Wuhan L4 (now perhaps with viable early effective vaccine) wasn't a factor, could we see a new v2 potent strain, from some aul wet market, so to speak.

Klonker

ShineOn7 wrote: »

This is the UK, where they were absolutely decimated with this. And yet, look at those numbers dropping more and more




And yet loads on here don't believe it can die off to nothing or next to nothing?



The pessimism is quite something

To be honest 2 months ago I thought we'd never have got this under control until after it burned through half the country such was the trajectory. I don't think anyone thought numbers would fall so quick, all across western Europe, so I'm really hoping it is dying off. I seen some theories that a lot of people might already have had different less serious coronaviruses that has given them immunity which would make sense giving the trends we've seen.

ShineOn7

Klonker wrote: »

To be honest 2 months ago I thought we'd never have got this under control until after it burned through half the country such was the trajectory..

Same. My stress levels were at 10

They're now moreso around 5/6

seamus

ShineOn7 wrote: »

This is America's weekly trajectory

I'm always sketchy about lumping the US in as a whole for stats purposes. For the same reason that we don't generally lump the EU in as a whole - it's a wide geographic area where administrative divisions make their own policies in regard to public health.
Obviously there are big difference in borders and movement of people, but what it does is hide any potential issue in the US. While they have the highest number of deaths, their deaths/million is middle of the road. But that's across the entire country, including state that have only seen a few hundred cases.

If you take the US on a state-by-state basis, they have the two worst affected regions on the planet (New York & New Jersey), and would take 7 of the top ten positions for deaths/million.

Of all places, the US has the greatest risk of a second wave/second peak as the virus spreads westwards and graphs like this one are used as justification that infection is under control in the USA, when it might just be getting a foothold in some regions.

ShineOn7

A pretty pessimistic outlook by the HSE worker doing an AMA on here

Bottom line though the lockdown worked very well, better even than I had expected but this was the first wave of a few over the 2 years that we can expect this to be a pressing issue for the country.

The nation will survive, it isn’t the apocalypse but I don’t think people understand just how long-term and impactful this is going to be.

Hmmzis

Yeah, read that post. It's very depressing.
The thing about the vaccine durability, 6-12 months protection of some sorts, is quite a surprise. Maybe he knows more about them than anyone else is willing to admit or tell. From some interviews Adrian Hill has speculated the vaccines to be in the 5-10 year protection range (sort of like tetanus shots).

Time to dig a bunker... ��

ShineOn7

Hmmzis wrote: »

Time to dig a bunker... ��

I'm staying a lot more positive than the HSE worker (and I say that as someone who has been extremely stressed since early March, but feeling better in the last 2 weeks)

With the greatest of respect to them (it's a Frontline worker who has underlying conditions) they've been very off the mark with many previous predictions. They said Ireland would have:

• 60,000 fatalities from this. It then changed to
• 10,000 over 18 months, and changed again to
• 15,000 over 18 months

ShineOn7

Apart from UK, the Americas, Sweden and India - aren't many other countries seeing continued drops in case numbers?

Even EU countries who are well past our re-opening phases continue to see positive days with this and are well past their case peak

And yet a third on the Poll think it'll be here past 2023?

ShineOn7

Professor Samuel McConkey was on Today FM earlier (Approximately between 5.15pm to 5.30pm if you want to listen back) and he said the following


Roughly quoting but accurate in the numbers he said:

If you're not on the list of close contacts of those currently isolating, your chances of getting this in the community are between 1 in 2.5 Million to 1 in 5 Million

I'm much more concerned about how open our airports are at the moment to high risk countries. If we put better measures in place against these high risk countries we can keep it suppressed. Otherwise, we can rise to a thousand new cases in the space of 5 days if the R0 gets out of control with imported cases from travellers from high risk countries

So great news right?

But, our airports are so exposed to UK, USA, Brazil and others, that isn't it just a matter of time before we blow all the great work done by the Restrictions?

Away With The Fairies

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Professor Samuel McConkey was on Today FM earlier (Approximately between 5.15pm to 5.30pm if you want to listen back) and he said the following


Roughly quoting but accurate in the numbers he said:




So great news right?

But, our airports are so exposed to UK, USA, Brazil and others, that isn't it just a matter of time before we blow all the great work done by the Restrictions?

I'm getting the impression that they really couldn't give two fcuks and it's more about the economy and getting it restarted.

ShineOn7

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

I'm getting the impression that they really couldn't give two fcuks and it's more about the economy and getting it restarted.

The economy can be re-opened and we can keep high risk countries out

They don't have to be same thing

ceadaoin.

ShineOn7 wrote: »

The economy can be re-opened and we can keep high risk countries out

They don't have to be same thing

You cant stop Irish people in the high risk countries coming back though. How many are in the US? Tens of thousands? The UK must be hundreds of thousands

ShineOn7

ceadaoin. wrote: »

You cant stop Irish people in the high risk countries coming back though. How many are in the US? Tens of thousands? The UK must be hundreds of thousands

Why not?

Australia - as one example - aren't allowing flights anywhere, in or out, and they're doing amazing

"Australia isn't like us at all" and you want more examples?

We have some of the most relaxed and lax airport controls at the moment. Some Third World countries have tighter restrictions than us

4068ac1elhodqr

Day or two ago saw the biggest ever bunch of new (global) cases to date.
Most likely this is explained by it's growth rate across India, S.America, Pak/Bang, and now parts of Africa.
176k cases for 17 June, mucho for a single day.

bb1234567

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Apart from UK, the Americas, Sweden and India - aren't many other countries seeing continued drops in case numbers?

Even EU countries who are well past our re-opening phases continue to see positive days with this and are well past their case peak

And yet a third on the Poll think it'll be here past 2023?

No ,it really is rising almost everywhere. As well as the regions you've mentioned Cases are rising Eastern Europe, southern United States ,South Africa ,Iraq ,Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt , Bangladesh, several other parts of Africa such as Cameroon and Sudan , and plateauing at a high level in several other countries. It's almost like the European Union is in fact the only place not experiencing large outbreaks currently

mandrake04

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Why not?

Australia - as one example - aren't allowing flights anywhere, in or out, and they're doing amazing

Actually that's not true, there's still several flights per day into and out of Australia take Sydney for instance.

https://www.sydneyairport.com.au/flights/?query=&flightType=arrival&terminalType=international&date=2020-06-19&sortColumn=scheduled_time&ascending=true&showAll=true


But all arrivals are returned residents into enforced quarantine no exceptions and that's where the current cases seem to be.

JUNE 19 2020 - 1:52PM

Seven new coronavirus cases detected in NSW in the past 24 hours


Seven new cases of coronavirus were detected in NSW in the 24 hours to 8pm last night.

An update provided by NSW Health today said the seven new cases were all returned travellers in hotel quarantine.

This brings the total number of cases in NSW to 3143, of which 2770 have recovered.

A total of 17,363 people were tested in the 24-hour period - the second highest number to date and only slightly behind the 13,392 tests carried out the previous day.

Although we have social distancing (1.5m) etc life is fairly normal for a few weeks now, the wife and I were out in the city last weekend went to a restaurant and had a meal and several drinks definitely a bit quieter than usual but still people out living life. There is a barcode on the table and you just scan it and it brings up a webpage and you fill in your name and phone number. Pubs still have a 50 person limit but that's being lifted 1st July along with cinemas and sporting events etc. mostly back to normal.

You cant lock up the entire population for months while allowing the virus to move freely over borders, that's just silly... you lock out the virus while your citizens enjoy living life.

ShineOn7

Well this thread aged well eh?

I started it almost 4 months ago when things were very much starting to look hopeful

Bottom line though: almost all pandemics rarely go past lasting 3 years, right?

landofthetree

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Well this thread aged well eh?


I started it almost 4 months ago when things were very much starting to look hopeful



Bottom line though: almost all pandemics rarely go past lasting 3 years, right?

With social distancing it could last for a decade.

ShineOn7

landofthetree wrote: »

With social distancing it could last for a decade.

With social distancing it'll last longer?

Was that a typo?