GAA Betting

Same As

Same As wrote: »

Jennings Selections 21/11/2020 & 22/11/2020:


21/11/2020:

Meath +10 (Dublin vs Meath)
3pts 11-10 Boylesports -3

Meath over 13.5 points (Dublin vs Meath)
3pts 8-11 Boylesports -3

Both teams to score a goal (Dublin vs Meath):
2pts 21-20 Boylesports -2


Boylan Hurling Selections 21/11/2020:


Galway +1 (Galway vs Tipperary)
2pts 4-5 Paddy Power +1.60

A draw or either team to win by less than four points (Galway vs Tipperary)
3pts 4-6 Ladbrokes +2

Over 51.5 points (Galway vs Tipperary)
2pts 5-6 Paddy Power +1.67

Conor Whelan to score a goal (Galway vs Tipperary)
1pt 7-4 Boylesports -1

Brian Concannon to score a goal (Galway vs Tipperary)
1pt 15-8 Paddy Power +1.88


Clare +3 (Clare vs Waterford)
2pts 10-11 Paddy Power -2

Clare half-time, Waterford full-time (Clare vs Waterford)
1pt 9-2 Boylesports -1

Tony Kelly to be awarded Hurler of the Year (All Ireland Hurling Championship 2020)
1pt 6-1 Paddy Power -1

-8 for Jennings
+2.15 for Boylan

Updated Running Profit Loss for Racing Post Tipsters (Excluding Outright Selections in Post #266):


Jennings Total Points Staked: 195.5
Jennings Profit/Loss: -13.58
Jennings Total Selections: 89
Jennings Total Winners: 30
%: 33.71%


Boylan Total Points Staked: 103
Boylan Profit/Loss: -8.21
Boylan Total Selections: 60
Boylan Total Winners: 20
%: 33.33%


Jennings Selections 22/11/2020:

Tipperary under 15.5 points (Cork vs Tipperary)
3pts 4-6 Paddy Power


Under 36.5 points (Cavan vs Donegal)
3pts 10-11 Boylesports

Donegal under 22.5 points (Cavan vs Donegal)
3pts 4-5 Boylesports

spurshero

Scoundrel wrote: »

I will I've it backed already they were only warming up vs Westmeath beat Laois by 20 last weekend

Good call fair play . Not sure what I was thinking . I had Galway Waterford minus 3 and Meath plus10!’

Capt. Autumn

Munster SFC final
Cork 0-7 Tipperary 0-11, Pairc Ui Chaoimh, 1.30pm HT

What an upset this could be.

I'm taking Tipp +1 point (which covers a Tipp win or a draw) at 8/11 on Boyle.

It seems the men of 1921 are inspiring The Premier County

Capt. Autumn

Capt. Autumn wrote: »

Munster SFC final
Cork 0-7 Tipperary 0-11, Pairc Ui Chaoimh, 1.30pm HT

What an upset this could be.

I'm taking Tipp +1 point (which covers a Tipp win or a draw) at 8/11 on Boyle.

It seems the men of 1921 are inspiring The Premier County

Munster SFC final full time: Cork 0-14 Tipperary 0-17

Back of the net!

Congratulations Tipperary!

redarmy

Michael Murphy (Donegal) to be named RTE Man of the Match 8/1

maximo31

Anyone have the double?!

dobman88

maximo31 wrote: »

Anyone have the double?!

Yeah I had 100 quid on it :rolleyes:

Capt. Autumn

Ulster SFC final
Cavan 1-13 Donegal 0-12, Athletic Grounds, 4pm FT

After the Munster final, WTF?

I have been thinking for a long time that the odds setters in GAA are totally unsophisticated.

Today bears that out.

Tipp were given a 7 point start by the bookmakers, Cavan were given a 10 point start.

Combined odds on both teams winning outrightwould have been in the region of 50/1.

And here's the thing. This was no fluke by either team. Tipperary won by three and played the better football throughout.

Cavan won by four and were the better team on the day also.

I'm not listening to the bookies seldom get it wrong again. They do in gaelic football, too often swayed by a team's past reputation.

In future I'm going after the odds. Feck the formbook.

maximo31

dobman88 wrote: »

Yeah I had 100 quid on it :rolleyes:

Funny man.

Same As

Same As wrote: »

Jennings Selections 22/11/2020:

Tipperary under 15.5 points (Cork vs Tipperary)
3pts 4-6 Paddy Power -3


Under 36.5 points (Cavan vs Donegal)
3pts 10-11 Boylesports +2.73

Donegal under 22.5 points (Cavan vs Donegal)
3pts 4-5 Boylesports +2.40

Jennings +2.13 today.

Updated Running Profit Loss for Racing Post Tipsters (Excluding Outright Selections in Post #266):


Jennings Total Points Staked: 204.5
Jennings Profit/Loss: -11.45
Jennings Total Selections: 92
Jennings Total Winners: 32
%: 33.71%


Boylan Total Points Staked: 103
Boylan Profit/Loss: -8.21
Boylan Total Selections: 60
Boylan Total Winners: 20
%: 33.33%

Sultan of Bling

Capt. Autumn wrote:

I'm not listening to the bookies seldom get it wrong again. They do in gaelic football, too often swayed by a team's past reputation.

Capt. Autumn wrote:

In future I'm going after the odds. Feck the formbook.

So how much are you putting on Cavan beating Dublin in the semi final?

dobman88

What's the line going to be for Dublin v Cavan? I'd have it at -16 and expect it to come in.

redarmy

dobman88 wrote: »

What's the line going to be for Dublin v Cavan? I'd have it at -16 and expect it to come in.

14 at moment

dobman88

redarmy wrote: »

14 at moment

Not a bad guess. I'd happily punt on -14 then

passremarkable

passremarkable wrote: »

Tipp to beat cork in football is 9/2.
Feel like I’m missing something
Seems a really generous price

Glad I backed it. Mad pricing I thought.
Tipp had the forwards.

Capt. Autumn

Sultan of Bling wrote: »

So how much are you putting on Cavan beating Dublin in the semi final?

I won't know until I see the half-time handicap odds.

Danick

Capt. Autumn wrote: »

I won't know until I see the half-time handicap odds.

Taking the handicap - Dessie Farrell is like a Cobra Kai trainer John Kreese- he doesn't just want to beat teams he wants to annihilate them.

Danick

Capt. Autumn wrote: »

I won't know until I see the half-time handicap odds.

Taking the handicap - Dessie Farrell is like Cobra Kai trainer John Kreese- he doesn't just want to beat teams he wants to annihilate them.

Gaaking2020

Padraig faulker to get an all star 2/1

corcaigh07

dobman88 wrote: »

Not a bad guess. I'd happily punt on -14 then

Was hoping it would be -10 again, the Ulster champions will have a better chance than Meath, you'd think.

Like others, maybe bet at HT when the game is hopefully still tight and hope for Dublin to run away with it in the end

Pogue eile

passremarkable wrote: »

Glad I backed it. Mad pricing I thought.
Tipp had the forwards.

I was one of the ones who tried to talk you out of it, glad you were wise enough not to listen , and never as happy to be wrong about a bet, ever!!

Sultan of Bling

Dublin now 1/125 to beat Cavan with bet 365.

Never seen any team as short in a semi final of any sport.

Gaaking2020

Thomas galligan nap for all star

Same As

Gaaking2020 wrote: »

Thomas galligan nap for all star

He's the Second shortest price of all players with Paddy Power at 1/5

Did you smash it

Sultan of Bling wrote: »

Dublin now 1/125 to beat Cavan with bet 365.

Never seen any team as short in a semi final of any sport.

The Dublin Gaelic football team in championship In croke part is the most unbeatable team in world sport.

dobman88

Handicap has dropped to -13 after being -14 after the Ulster final. I've had my first decent cut off it at 10/11 and I'd expect it to be closer to -15 or -16 as we get closer to the game.

This is no disrespect to Cavan for any of their fans reading this thread. This is purely what I think will happen in reality. I'd be as happy as the next man to see Cavan win after the year they've had so far, even if it cost me a few bob.

Did you smash it

dobman88 wrote: »

Handicap has dropped to -13 after being -14 after the Ulster final. I've had my first decent cut off it at 10/11 and I'd expect it to be closer to -15 or -16 as we get closer to the game.

This is no disrespect to Cavan for any of their fans reading this thread. This is purely what I think will happen in reality. I'd be as happy as the next man to see Cavan win after the year they've had so far, even if it cost me a few bob.

Do Cavan have any heavy scoring forwards?

dobman88

Did you smash it wrote: »

Do Cavan have any heavy scoring forwards?

I'm not too sure tbh. Going just on this season, they've had a decent spread. Gearoid McKiernan, I think that's his name, first name could be wrong, has popped up with a handful of points in every game but I think hes on frees too.

They scored 2-15 against Monaghan in a game that went to extra time and Monaghan had one of the worst halfs of football you'll ever see.

They were down by 8 or 9 at half time to Down before a late resurgence saw them over the line.

I just dont think they will have anything to trouble Dublin. This Dublin team is the finished article and are so good at what they do, they're going to smash all kinds of records.

Did you smash it

dobman88 wrote: »

I'm not too sure tbh. Going just on this season, they've had a decent spread. Gearoid McKiernan, I think that's his name, first name could be wrong, has popped up with a handful of points in every game but I think hes on frees too.

They scored 2-15 against Monaghan in a game that went to extra time and Monaghan had one of the worst halfs of football you'll ever see.

They were down by 8 or 9 at half time to Down before a late resurgence saw them over the line.

I just dont think they will have anything to trouble Dublin. This Dublin team is the finished article and are so good at what they do, they're going to smash all kinds of records.

If cavan have no players to get them purchase up the field near the Dublin goal then it will be a damage limitation exercise with Cavan scoring 10 or 11 points.

I’d see it that way anyway.

dobman88

Did you smash it wrote: »

If cavan have no players to get them purchase up the field near the Dublin goal then it will be a damage limitation exercise with Cavan scoring 10 or 11 points.

I’d see it that way anyway.

Aside from the Monaghan game, the most they've scored is 1-13 or 1-14 but I stand to be corrected on that. I think (hope) they go into the game to give it a go and that's why I think it will be such a big scoring margin. If they do give it a go, unfortunately they are nowhere near the level required to challenge Dublin. No team is at the moment.

I honestly think -13 will come in and be done by the 55th or 60th minute.

Did you smash it

dobman88 wrote: »

Aside from the Monaghan game, the most they've scored is 1-13 or 1-14 but I stand to be corrected on that. I think (hope) they go into the game to give it a go and that's why I think it will be such a big scoring margin. If they do give it a go, unfortunately they are nowhere near the level required to challenge Dublin. No team is at the moment.

I honestly think -13 will come in and be done by the 55th or 60th minute.

I doubt they’ll give it a go. If you have no class upfront then ur better off not.

To add... I haven’t seen them play

dobman88

Did you smash it wrote: »

I doubt they’ll give it a go. If you have no class upfront then ur better off not.

To add... I haven’t seen them play

Fair enough. I have seen them play and I've been cheering for them so far this year each time I've watched them. I'd love to see them win but I always try and let the head over rule the heart when punting.

Could look very foolish in 2 weeks time but sure.

mountgomery burns

Was looking at the all stars in hurling earlier having seen the football talk earlier. Over the last 10 years the average awards for the winner has been 6.7, with as low as 5 and as high as 8 on a couple of occasions.

I think Limerick win the all ireland and if they do they'll have won every match this year so more likely to be in the 7-8 category then 5-6 you would think.

So I was looking for the value with that in mind. I looked at forwards first and I would say the below are pretty much nailed on:

Gearoid Hegarty
TJ Reid
Aaron Gillane

2 Limerick
1 Kilkenny

Now I would expect Galway likely to get one between Canning/Whelan or maybe Concannon. More than likely that is your half line covered so it's the inside line needs filling, and so one of Bennett (most likely) or possibly Dessie Hutchison if shows more of the form of the last day on Saturday. Limerick corner forwards have been good so far so either of them are well in contention too.

I think it's important to mention midfield here as well. There are 4 lads who I would think are in with a shout and only 2 places. Tony Kelly is a cert, but strong showings and progression could mean two of Lynch/Mannion/Barron are deemed worth of one. This could mean Kelly is moved into the forwards.

So I reckon between midfield forwards you are looking at:

4 Limerick
1 Galway
1 Waterford
1 Kilkenny
1 Clare

OR

3 Limerick
4 Waterford/Galway/Kilkenny (between them)
1 Clare

If it was the latter and Limerick win the all Ireland then you'd expect 4/7 of the remaining all stars to go there way.

Now, here are the near certainties in the backs

Sean Finn
Diarmuid Byrnes
Tadhg De Burca
Padraic Walsh

The first three I'd be very confident in unless they fall apart at the weekend, and I'd say you could nearly chalk Walsh down as well because Kilkenny are poorly represented in standout individuals further up the pitch.

That would leave 3 places to be filled and likely 2 going Limericks way. So no way they have the whole full back line then, but a good chance they might have somebody to accompany Finn.

There has been no standout full back so far this year hence why all the contenders are odds against. Kilkenny have a decent shot here, but failing that I would think Dan Morrissey must come into the reckoning if the Limerick back line holds up well and they win the all Ireland.

There is a fair bit of juice in the price on offer currently I think considering all the above.

Have had a bet on Dan Morrissey to get an all star @ 5/1.

Pogue eile

Great write up Monty, just one thought occurred to me though, do you figures/averages from recent years need to be adjusted or at the very least treated with caution owing to the unique format this year and less games?

PS I would have Daithi Burke as the forerunner for FB and he is 11/4

passremarkable

Pogue eile wrote: »

I was one of the ones who tried to talk you out of it, glad you were wise enough not to listen , and never as happy to be wrong about a bet, ever!!

No hassle, good to get opinions. That’s why I posted in first place. Just felt the value was there.
Onto the next one.

Scoundrel

I got Dublin to win 10 in a row priced up for the laugh during the week it's 15/2 how depressing is that? BTW back Dublin -14.

liosnagceann75

Why aren't the all stars and the lions squad available as an accumulator on Boylesports? Are other bookies only permitting singles?

dobman88

Scoundrel wrote: »

I got Dublin to win 10 in a row priced up for the laugh during the week it's 15/2 how depressing is that? BTW back Dublin -14.

I asked boyles for prices on 7, 8, 9 and 10 in a row and they refused to quote them all

Scoundrel

dobman88 wrote: »

I asked boyles for prices on 7, 8, 9 and 10 in a row and they refused to quote them all

PP gave me 15/2 for 10

slimshady007

Just some comments from a biased Cavan man on the consensus Dublin will cover the spread against us.

Momentum
Cavan are bringing serious momentum into this game. There has been a noticeable shift in mindset that irrespective of the scoreline they keep plugging away. Previous years they would have lay down and took their beating (last years Ulster final and subsequent qualifier v Tyrone are prime examples) but this year there is definitely a resilience and steeliness there. They had pretty much all the major decisions of the Donegal game go against them and still found a way to win (despite been down a man for 20 mins of the game). Remember Donegal scored 6 of their 12 points during that the period when Cavan got their first black card so it's not inconceivable that Cavan could have held them to under 10 points with a decent referee.

System
Cavan tried the cautious stand off tactics in their first 3 games and almost paid the price before switching to a more direct aggressive style which suited them much better. The advanced mark rule is working well for them as the likes of McKiernan, Madden, Reilly, Galligan, etc are all well able to win ball inside and kick scores. It also gives them options as they have strong ball carriers too when they need to (C Brady and Smith are particularly good at this from the half back line).

Management Tactics
Mickey Graham has rightly earned enormous credit for his job in delivering an Ulster title this year. Remember Donegal had beaten Tyrone and Armagh (both D1 teams next year) on the way to the Ulster final so were well prepared. Cavan totally nullified Murphy and McHugh's impact on the game (without giving away many scorable frees). K Brady may not be the most stylish of footballers but was effective in negating Murphy so hopefully he can do similar next time out.

Conclusion
Obviously I'm not expecting Cavan to beat Dublin but I do expect them to cover the spread. There is a sense of ignorance about Cavan which makes me believe they wont lie down the way other teams have done. In terms of game prep, Cavan have had much the tougher route and learned an awful lot along the way. By comparison Dublin will have learned very little and will likely have had tougher in house games than what they've faced already. Another factor is this is no ordinary year so while Cavan would usually have been "celebrating" the Ulster title this week there were no such type of celebrations and they will be fully focussed on the game. The match ups will be crucial (potential match ups could be Faulkner v O'Callaghan, Clarke v Kilkenny, Galligan v Fenton, Gearoid v Small). Probably more than a hint of rose tinted glasses here but I don't think Cavan will lose by double figures.

dobman88

Great post and always great to hear another view to weigh up a decision.

Same As

Boylan Selections 28/11/2020 & 29/11/2020:


28/11/2020:


Kilkenny -1 (Kilkenny vs Waterford)
3pts 10-11 Bet Victor

Colin Fennelly first goalscorer Kilkenny -1 (Kilkenny vs Waterford)
1pt 7-1 Paddy Power

Colin Fennelly anytime goalscorer Kilkenny -1 (Kilkenny vs Waterford)
1pt 7-4 Boylesports

Over 1.5 Kilkenny goals Kilkenny -1 (Kilkenny vs Waterford)
1pt 4-5 Paddy Power

Kilkenny to face Limerick in the All Ireland Hurling Championship Final
1pt 11-8 Paddy Power


29/11/2020:


Limerick -2 (Limerick vs Galway)
3pts 10-11 Betway

Over 55.5 points (Limerick vs Galway)
3pts 6-4 Boylesports

Over 28.5 Limerick points (Limerick vs Galway)
1pt evens Boylesports



Updated Running Profit Loss for Racing Post Tipsters (Excluding Outright Selections in Post #266):



Jennings Total Points Staked: 204.5
Jennings Profit/Loss: -11.45
Jennings Total Selections: 92
Jennings Total Winners: 32
%: 33.71%


Boylan Total Points Staked: 103
Boylan Profit/Loss: -8.21
Boylan Total Selections: 60
Boylan Total Winners: 20
%: 33.33%

Unknownability

Same As wrote: »

Colin Fennelly first goalscorer Kilkenny -1 (Kilkenny vs Waterford)
1pt 7-1 Paddy Power

Colin Fennelly anytime goalscorer Kilkenny -1 (Kilkenny vs Waterford)
1pt 7-4 Boylesports

Fennelly dropped

Pogue eile

Unknownability wrote: »

Fennelly dropped

I was just about to post, not knowing the team news, that Fennelly was destroyed in the Leinster Final and Prunty has been very good for Waterford.

Capt. Autumn

All-Ireland SHC semi-final
Kilkenny 2-23 Waterford 2-27, Croke Park, 6pm FT

Again, totally unsophisticated betting market by the bookies. in GAA betting

At half-time Waterford were offered at 5/6 with +6 points, handicap betting, on Boyle

To win, Waterford were an incredible 9/2.

Always go after the odds children, always go after the odds.

ShamoBuc

Capt. Autumn wrote: »

All-Ireland SHC semi-final
Kilkenny 2-23 Waterford 2-27, Croke Park, 6pm FT

Again, totally unsophisticated betting market by the bookies. in GAA betting

At half-time Waterford were offered at 5/6 with +6 points, handicap betting, on Boyle

To win, Waterford were an incredible 9/2.

Always go after the odds children, always go after the odds.

Not necessarily.

Not many saw that comeback happening, hence those odds, handicap bet was nice but 9/2 is quite poor when they were 6 or 7 down considering Waterford had never beaten them in a semi before.

Did you get on?

RIALTO1

So true, I mean Kilkenny -6 first half handicap was 8/1 - always go after them odds guys! :rolleyes:

Same As

Capt. Autumn wrote: »

All-Ireland SHC semi-final
Kilkenny 2-23 Waterford 2-27, Croke Park, 6pm FT

Again, totally unsophisticated betting market by the bookies. in GAA betting

At half-time Waterford were offered at 5/6 with +6 points, handicap betting, on Boyle

To win, Waterford were an incredible 9/2.

Always go after the odds children, always go after the odds.

Hindsight is 20/20, those odds look great now, of course, because they turned out to be winners. Where was this post before or during the game at half time rather than when the game is over?

Did you take the opportunity to follow your own belated guidance? If so, you should post the screenshot of it in the Aftertiming thread here.

Same As

Same As wrote: »

Boylan Selections 28/11/2020 & 29/11/2020:


28/11/2020:


Kilkenny -1 (Kilkenny vs Waterford)
3pts 10-11 Bet Victor -3

Colin Fennelly first goalscorer Kilkenny -1 (Kilkenny vs Waterford)
1pt 7-1 Paddy Power -1

Colin Fennelly anytime goalscorer Kilkenny -1 (Kilkenny vs Waterford)
1pt 7-4 Boylesports -1

Over 1.5 Kilkenny goals Kilkenny -1 (Kilkenny vs Waterford)
1pt 4-5 Paddy Power +0.8

Kilkenny to face Limerick in the All Ireland Hurling Championship Final
1pt 11-8 Paddy Power -1

-5.2 for today.


Updated Running Profit Loss for Racing Post Tipsters (Excluding Outright Selections in Post #266):



Jennings Total Points Staked: 204.5
Jennings Profit/Loss: -11.45
Jennings Total Selections: 92
Jennings Total Winners: 32
%: 33.71%


Boylan Total Points Staked: 110
Boylan Profit/Loss: -13.41
Boylan Total Selections: 65
Boylan Total Winners: 21
%: 32.31%

29/11/2020:


Limerick -2 (Limerick vs Galway)
3pts 10-11 Betway

Over 55.5 points (Limerick vs Galway)
3pts 6-4 Boylesports

Over 28.5 Limerick points (Limerick vs Galway)
1pt evens Boylesports

Did you smash it

slimshady007 wrote: »

Just some comments from a biased Cavan man on the consensus Dublin will cover the spread against us.

Momentum
Cavan are bringing serious momentum into this game. There has been a noticeable shift in mindset that irrespective of the scoreline they keep plugging away. Previous years they would have lay down and took their beating (last years Ulster final and subsequent qualifier v Tyrone are prime examples) but this year there is definitely a resilience and steeliness there. They had pretty much all the major decisions of the Donegal game go against them and still found a way to win (despite been down a man for 20 mins of the game). Remember Donegal scored 6 of their 12 points during that the period when Cavan got their first black card so it's not inconceivable that Cavan could have held them to under 10 points with a decent referee.

System
Cavan tried the cautious stand off tactics in their first 3 games and almost paid the price before switching to a more direct aggressive style which suited them much better. The advanced mark rule is working well for them as the likes of McKiernan, Madden, Reilly, Galligan, etc are all well able to win ball inside and kick scores. It also gives them options as they have strong ball carriers too when they need to (C Brady and Smith are particularly good at this from the half back line).

Management Tactics
Mickey Graham has rightly earned enormous credit for his job in delivering an Ulster title this year. Remember Donegal had beaten Tyrone and Armagh (both D1 teams next year) on the way to the Ulster final so were well prepared. Cavan totally nullified Murphy and McHugh's impact on the game (without giving away many scorable frees). K Brady may not be the most stylish of footballers but was effective in negating Murphy so hopefully he can do similar next time out.

Conclusion
Obviously I'm not expecting Cavan to beat Dublin but I do expect them to cover the spread. There is a sense of ignorance about Cavan which makes me believe they wont lie down the way other teams have done. In terms of game prep, Cavan have had much the tougher route and learned an awful lot along the way. By comparison Dublin will have learned very little and will likely have had tougher in house games than what they've faced already. Another factor is this is no ordinary year so while Cavan would usually have been "celebrating" the Ulster title this week there were no such type of celebrations and they will be fully focussed on the game. The match ups will be crucial (potential match ups could be Faulkner v O'Callaghan, Clarke v Kilkenny, Galligan v Fenton, Gearoid v Small). Probably more than a hint of rose tinted glasses here but I don't think Cavan will lose by double figures.

A lot of those reasons are hard to quantify- a sense of ignorance and they’ve learnt a lot along the way.

What I see in Cavan from looking at scoring tallies is a lack individuals with scoring power, a spread of scorers yes, but a lack of reliable go to man like an Andy Moran, Michael Murphy or Conor McManus.

Also Ulster championship form is so different to croke park form. It’s a totally different ball game. Far more ground to be covered, far more weaknesses in conditioning exposed in Croke park.

If Cavan can win the ball close to the Dublin goal enough times they can make it sticky for the dubs but I’m not sure they can.

Cavan can probably hope to score between 12-15 points in this game. Dublin would the. have to make 27- 30 to cover the spread.