GAA Betting

dobman88

I see the 20/1 on Cavan is gone. Best price 18s but generally 16s. Dubs best price 1/50 but generally 1/100, having been out at 1/125 with bet 365 at one stage.

Is that not a terrible price for Cavan? If they're saying the Dubs only lose 1 in 100 how can they expect Cavan to win 1 in every 16. The handicap at -13 still looks like value to me but I expected it to come down to 11 or 12 when I saw Cavans price lowered. Wont go in again on -13 but will if it comes down a bit.

Did you smash it

dobman88 wrote: »

I see the 20/1 on Cavan is gone. Best price 18s but generally 16s. Dubs best price 1/50 but generally 1/100, having been out at 1/125 with bet 365 at one stage.

Is that not a terrible price for Cavan? If they're saying the Dubs only lose 1 in 100 how can they expect Cavan to win 1 in every 16. The handicap at -13 still looks like value to me but I expected it to come down to 11 or 12 when I saw Cavans price lowered. Wont go in again on -13 but will if it comes down a bit.

Just to help you with those odds if you put a euro on Cavan to win at odds of 20/1 that means you will lose one euro.

dobman88

Did you smash it wrote: »

Just to help you with those odds if you put a euro on Cavan to win at odds of 20/1 that means you will lose one euro.

:pac: I know that. I've no intention of backing them. I was more referencing the odds decreasing but the handicap staying the same. I'm confident in Dublin winning by 16 which is what I thought the handicap would be since Cavan won Ulster

Jfk66

Cavan over 11.5 points @4/5 with paddy seems value as even Meath who got tanked mustered 10!

Capt. Autumn

Anyone else think 4/1 on Tipperary to beat Mayo on Sunday is over-generous.

This Tipperary team will not be phased by the game, they are actually far more seasoned than what is a rookie Mayo team in transition.

I think there is a good chance that Mayo's in-play odds would drift to 1/2 or better if Tipperary can recreate the intensity they showed against Cork. Quids in on Mayo then and pray it doesn't end level.

Same As

Jennings Selections 5/12/2020:


Cavan to score a goal (Dublin vs Cavan)
3pts 6-5 Boylesports

Ciaran Kilkenny Footballer of the Year (All Ireland Senior Football Championship 2020)
5pts 2-1 Paddy Power



Running Profit Loss for Racing Post Tipsters (Excluding Outright Selections in Post #266):



Jennings Total Points Staked: 204.5
Jennings Profit/Loss: -11.45
Jennings Total Selections: 92
Jennings Total Winners: 32
%: 33.71%


Boylan Total Points Staked: 116
Boylan Profit/Loss: -13.68
Boylan Total Selections: 67
Boylan Total Winners: 22
%: 32.84%

47akak

Boyles have J.Small, Mcdaid, Murchan not to score @ 4.5.

Seems a touch big. 3 starters this year but twice in previous games one of those scored and one of those games it was Small who popped up for a point. Dublin scored 4-46 in those games. Hopefully it'll be a bit more competitive.

Danick

Capt. Autumn wrote: »

Anyone else think 4/1 on Tipperary to beat Mayo on Sunday is over-generous.

This Tipperary team will not be phased by the game, they are actually far more seasoned than what is a rookie Mayo team in transition.

I think there is a good chance that Mayo's in-play odds would drift to 1/2 or better if Tipperary can recreate the intensity they showed against Cork. Quids in on Mayo then and pray it doesn't end level.

No - I don't think so - it will be close that is why PP set the line at 5 points but no Mayo will will win this.

passremarkable

Just spotted a bet on PP and thought it be worth sharing. It’s one of Mullanes picks.
De Burca, TJ Reid, T Kelly, S Bennett & Barron all to get an all star
That’s evens

I think that will come in
Think TJ & Tony have done enough.
The Waterford boys should be ok as is but if they get 7/8 out performances in the final that should seal it.

Pogue eile

passremarkable wrote: »

Just spotted a bet on PP and thought it be worth sharing. It’s one of Mullanes picks.
De Burca, TJ Reid, T Kelly, S Bennett & Barron all to get an all star
That’s evens

I think that will come in
Think TJ & Tony have done enough.
The Waterford boys should be ok as is but if they get 7/8 out performances in the final that should seal it.

Seen it and was almost tempted but I don't think its good value to be honest, 33% of the All Star team before the final, I would want more than evens. Jamie Barron is the dodgy one for me, forward line is very competitive and I have a feeling they will move Cian Lynch to Mid Field to offset this meaning Barron looses out.

RIALTO1

Capt. Autumn wrote: »

Anyone else think 4/1 on Tipperary to beat Mayo on Sunday is over-generous.

This Tipperary team will not be phased by the game, they are actually far more seasoned than what is a rookie Mayo team in transition.

I think there is a good chance that Mayo's in-play odds would drift to 1/2 or better if Tipperary can recreate the intensity they showed against Cork. Quids in on Mayo then and pray it doesn't end level.

Can't agrue that Mayo could very well trade 1/2 inplay, but even at that, you are staking 1pt at 4/1, then your possible 4pt gain @1/2 for a 2 pts return. So would be 5pts stake for a 1 pt profit. Draw beats you and Tipp win you are flat - so you are laying the draw at 5/1 in a Tipp no bet 3-way market. Don't think the juice is worth the squeeze.

RIALTO1

Cillian O'Connor Vs Conor Sweeney score match bet. PP have CoC @4/6 Vs 11/10 Sweeney. Boils have it 2/5 Vs 7/4. Some value on onside there.

Pogue eile

RIALTO1 wrote: »

Cillian O'Connor Vs Conor Sweeney score match bet. PP have CoC @4/6 Vs 11/10 Sweeney. Boils have it 2/5 Vs 7/4. Some value on onside there.

Are they draw no bet?

passremarkable

Pogue eile wrote: »

Seen it and was almost tempted but I don't think its good value to be honest, 33% of the All Star team before the final, I would want more than evens. Jamie Barron is the dodgy one for me, forward line is very competitive and I have a feeling they will move Cian Lynch to Mid Field to offset this meaning Barron looses out.

Yea that’s a fair point. Barron is the one that’s dodgy. I think if he plays well he could get in, he is showing real form. I think the media love Lynch so he is ahead in the pecking order.I’d personally have Barron ahead of lynch on games played.
Il sit on it for a few days

RIALTO1

Pogue eile wrote: »

Are they draw no bet?

yep

Pogue eile

RIALTO1 wrote: »

yep

Good stuff, I might have to do an account closing arb so. Thanks.

Capt. Autumn

RIALTO1 wrote: »

Can't agrue that Mayo could very well trade 1/2 inplay, but even at that, you are staking 1pt at 4/1, then your possible 4pt gain @1/2 for a 2 pts return. So would be 5pts stake for a 1 pt profit. Draw beats you and Tipp win you are flat - so you are laying the draw at 5/1 in a Tipp no bet 3-way market. Don't think the juice is worth the squeeze.

I agree with that. And a draw would blow the lot!

But if Mayo dropped lower than 1/2, then trading against both teams starts making sense.

Either way, a small bet on Tipp at 4/1 for the entertainment value, sit tight and see what happens in-play is how I'm playing it.

muletide

Any thoughts on Dean Rock to score 9 or more at 3-1. Think he will be good for at least one goal and combine this with a high number of freesia I think Cavan will have to foul a lot.

Seems good value

RIALTO1

Pogue eile wrote: »

Good stuff, I might have to do an account closing arb so. Thanks.

Hardly worth it is it? But there is clear value on either end - which one is the question. Lower range of scorers for Tipp vs Mayo where they are well spread. Having said that Tipp gave up 6 pts to frees Vs Cork (think Collins missed a gimme as well off top of my head) so CoC could have 5-6 from frees alone.

RIALTO1

Capt. Autumn wrote: »

I agree with that. And a draw would blow the lot!

But if Mayo dropped lower than 1/2, then trading against both teams starts making sense.

Either way, a small bet on Tipp at 4/1 for the entertainment value, sit tight and see what happens in-play is how I'm playing it.

Probably better trying to get on via the exchange, should get a little over 4/1, and a fairer inplay price than with the books (assuming liquidity won't be an issue if large stakes)

RIALTO1

muletide wrote: »

Any thoughts on Dean Rock to score 9 or more at 3-1. Think he will be good for at least one goal and combine this with a high number of freesia I think Cavan will have to foul a lot.

Seems good value

Powers line is 7.5, and evens over +7.5. So 3/1 for another point seems decent. Cavan didn't give up that many frees in scorable positions against Donegal. Branigan reffing so more used to Northern tackling - more lenient?

yabadabado

muletide wrote: »

Any thoughts on Dean Rock to score 9 or more at 3-1. Think he will be good for at least one goal and combine this with a high number of freesia I think Cavan will have to foul a lot.

Seems good value

Who's that with ?

Boyles have money back on a losing pregame singles up to €10.

muletide

yabadabado wrote: »

Who's that with ?

Boyles have money back on a losing pregame singles up to €10.

PP

Danick

Lads I counted Rock 6 pts and Callaghan 4 - am I right in saying they had a combined score of 10 pts? Or did I get the count wrong? Thanks

dobman88

dobman88 wrote: »

Handicap has dropped to -13 after being -14 after the Ulster final. I've had my first decent cut off it at 10/11 and I'd expect it to be closer to -15 or -16 as we get closer to the game.

This is no disrespect to Cavan for any of their fans reading this thread. This is purely what I think will happen in reality. I'd be as happy as the next man to see Cavan win after the year they've had so far, even if it cost me a few bob.

Happy with that bet. Talked myself out of going in again and glad I did cos they had to work harder than I expected.

Same As

Same As wrote: »

Jennings Selections 5/12/2020:


Cavan to score a goal (Dublin vs Cavan)
3pts 6-5 Boylesports -3

Ciaran Kilkenny Footballer of the Year (All Ireland Senior Football Championship 2020)
5pts 2-1 Paddy Power

-3 Today.


Jennings Selections 6/12/2020

Mayo -4 (Mayo vs Tipperary)
4pts 10-11 general

Mayo over 1.5 goals (Mayo vs Tipperary)
3pts 6-4 Boylesports, Paddy Power

Mayo over 2.5 goals (Mayo vs Tipperary)
1pt 9-2 Boylesports, Paddy Power

Mayo over 3.5 goals (Mayo vs Tipperary)
1pt 14-1 Boylesports


Updated Profit Loss for Racing Post Tipsters (Excluding Outright Selections in Post #266 & Post #557):



Jennings Total Points Staked: 207.5
Jennings Profit/Loss: -14.45
Jennings Total Selections: 93
Jennings Total Winners: 32
%: 34.41%


Boylan Total Points Staked: 116
Boylan Profit/Loss: -13.68
Boylan Total Selections: 67
Boylan Total Winners: 22
%: 32.84%

Capt. Autumn

Mayo vs Tipperary All-Ireland football Semi-Final 3:30

Anybody got any thoughts on how the Baltic conditions will affect the points scored total today?

Latest report from Dublin airport at 12 noon is 0 degrees Celsius. While this should lift a little before throw-in at 3:30pm, this is likely to be the coldest conditions for a championship game in living memory.

These are national league conditions, where total points average around 30 points.

The fog has been very slow to lift, that usually leaves a slippery mist on the ground. All of this, I think, would suggest a lower scoring game than you would expect at this stage of the championship.

Mayo games have not produced more that 32 points so far in this championship, averaging, exactly 30 points per game.
Tipperary games have averaged 32 points.

Boyles have a take-your pick on the cut-off handicap.

I'm taking Under 36.5 Total points at 4/6.

I would be very surprised and a little bit poorer if 36 points is breached.

Edit: A low scoring game makes Tipperary -5 at 10/11 (Boyles) very tasty indeed.

Capt. Autumn

Mayo vs Tipperary All-Ireland football Semi-Final 3:30

One further tip.

Mayo have played three games so far in the championship and one of those games has produced no goals. 33.3%

Tipperary have played three games so far in the championship and one of those games has produced no goals. 33.3%

One would imagine the odds on no goals today would be slightly less than 3/1 to give the bookie the edge.

Boyle have marked this up at a mouth-watering 13/2.

This gives the punter the edge.

No goals at 13/2 on Boyle. Worth a small flutter.

Pogue eile

Capt. Autumn wrote: »

Mayo vs Tipperary All-Ireland football Semi-Final 3:30

One further tip.

Mayo have played three games so far in the championship and one of those games has produced no goals. 33.3%

Tipperary have played three games so far in the championship and one of those games has produced no goals. 33.3%

One would imagine the odds on no goals today would be slightly less than 3/1 to give the bookie the edge.

Boyle have marked this up at a mouth-watering 13/2.

This gives the punter the edge.

No goals at 13/2 on Boyle. Worth a small flutter.

33% is 2/1 not 3/1.

2/1 + 2/1 = 8/1

And the most obvious caveat, games against other opposition completely irrelevant. Croke Park a big factor as well.

13/2 looks pretty spot on to me. As you say worth a small flutter, best of luck.

naughto

Going against this with the mayo forward line of coc conroy doc I can see them with getting at least 1 goal.galway reverted back to the blanket which was near impossible to get a goal tip dont seem to do this so there is chances there today.
Also the high ball in to oshea anything could happen he usually has two on him so there will be free me.now I better find my mayo jersey

Capt. Autumn

Pogue eile wrote: »

33% is 2/1 not 3/1.

2/1 + 2/1 = 8/1

And the most obvious caveat, games against other opposition completely irrelevant. Croke Park a big factor as well.

13/2 looks pretty spot on to me. As you say worth a small flutter, best of luck.

Yeah, my bad, 33.3% is actually 2/1.

Just on the 2/1 + 2/1 = 8/1

If you put 10 euro down on a double, both on odds of 2/1, don't you win 60 Euro? Would this make it 6/1?

If so, the bookie is making it still giving away a very small advantage to the punter, which, as you've pointed out could easily be negated by the wide open spaces and good surface (usually) in Croker.

I find the statistics part of the game really intriguing.....

ExMachina1000

Capt. Autumn wrote: »

Mayo vs Tipperary All-Ireland football Semi-Final 3:30

Anybody got any thoughts on how the Baltic conditions will affect the points scored total today?

Latest report from Dublin airport at 12 noon is 0 degrees Celsius. While this should lift a little before throw-in at 3:30pm, this is likely to be the coldest conditions for a championship game in living memory.

These are national league conditions, where total points average around 30 points.

The fog has been very slow to lift, that usually leaves a slippery mist on the ground. All of this, I think, would suggest a lower scoring game than you would expect at this stage of the championship.

Mayo games have not produced more that 32 points so far in this championship, averaging, exactly 30 points per game.
Tipperary games have averaged 32 points.

Boyles have a take-your pick on the cut-off handicap.

I'm taking Under 36.5 Total points at 4/6.

I would be very surprised and a little bit poorer if 36 points is breached.

Edit: A low scoring game makes Tipperary -5 at 10/11 (Boyles) very tasty indeed.

I like your thinking and will follow

Pogue eile

Capt. Autumn wrote: »

Yeah, my bad, 33.3% is actually 2/1.

Just on the 2/1 + 2/1 = 8/1

If you put 10 euro down on a double, both on odds of 2/1, don't you win 60 Euro? Would this make it 6/1?

If so, the bookie is making it still giving away a very small advantage to the punter, which, as you've pointed out could easily be negated by the wide open spaces and good surface (usually) in Croker.

I find the statistics part of the game really intriguing.....

If you put €10 @2/1 = €30. €30 @ 2/1 = €90, so €90 return from €10 bet = 8/1

mountgomery burns

Under 35.5 Tipp v Mayo. Think the fog could make it tricky, saw a lot of lads slipping in Croker last weekend.

Both provincial finals were under that line, unless there's a few goals think it should be good.

ShamoBuc

32 first half points, some shooting!!

mountgomery burns

mountgomery burns wrote: »

Under 35.5 Tipp v Mayo. Think the fog could make it tricky, saw a lot of lads slipping in Croker last weekend.

Both provincial finals were under that line, unless there's a few goals think it should be good.

I'll stick to the hurling

Capt. Autumn

Capt. Autumn wrote: »

Mayo vs Tipperary All-Ireland football Semi-Final 3:30

Anybody got any thoughts on how the Baltic conditions will affect the points scored total today?

Latest report from Dublin airport at 12 noon is 0 degrees Celsius. While this should lift a little before throw-in at 3:30pm, this is likely to be the coldest conditions for a championship game in living memory.

These are national league conditions, where total points average around 30 points.

The fog has been very slow to lift, that usually leaves a slippery mist on the ground. All of this, I think, would suggest a lower scoring game than you would expect at this stage of the championship.

Mayo games have not produced more that 32 points so far in this championship, averaging, exactly 30 points per game.
Tipperary games have averaged 32 points.

Boyles have a take-your pick on the cut-off handicap.

I'm taking Under 36.5 Total points at 4/6.

I would be very surprised and a little bit poorer if 36 points is breached.

Edit: A low scoring game makes Tipperary -5 at 10/11 (Boyles) very tasty indeed.

Tipperary???


Anyone got the lend of a fiver? :eek::eek::rolleyes:

Capt. Autumn

mountgomery burns wrote: »

I'll stick to the hurling

Caught too.

Tipperary team should have stayed on the bus.

Capt. Autumn

Capt. Autumn wrote: »

Mayo vs Tipperary All-Ireland football Semi-Final 3:30

One further tip.

Mayo have played three games so far in the championship and one of those games has produced no goals. 33.3%

Tipperary have played three games so far in the championship and one of those games has produced no goals. 33.3%

One would imagine the odds on no goals today would be slightly less than 3/1 to give the bookie the edge.

Boyle have marked this up at a mouth-watering 13/2.

This gives the punter the edge.

No goals at 13/2 on Boyle. Worth a small flutter.

Only five goals in the first half.:eek::eek::eek:
What a strange game this is.....

naughto

naughto wrote: »

Going against this with the mayo forward line of coc conroy doc I can see them with getting at least 1 goal.galway reverted back to the blanket which was near impossible to get a goal tip dont seem to do this so there is chances there today.
Also the high ball in to oshea anything could happen he usually has two on him so there will be free me.now I better find my mayo jersey

I was expecting goals but not this many

ianburke

game could get abandoned yet and save us!

Danick

naughto wrote: »

I was expecting goals but not this many

What happens a bet on Mayo over 3.5 goals if the match is abandoned because of fog - followed the tipster posted above - thanks

RIALTO1

Danick wrote: »

What happens a bet on Mayo over 3.5 goals if the match is abandoned because of fog - followed the tipster posted above - thanks

Should be settled already no? Winner anyway

Capt. Autumn

RIALTO1 wrote: »

Should be settled already no? Winner anyway

I think Tipp would concede if fog stopped play.

For any of us that lost money today because of Tipperary's no-show at least Mayo should ask some questions of Dublin in the final.

ianburke

they'll lose by a point like they always do. at least they'll have more of a rest than last year when they played too many weeks in a row and had nothing left for the second half - that should ensure they don't take a drubbing

RIALTO1

Capt. Autumn wrote: »

I think Tipp would concede if fog stopped play.

For any of us that lost money today because of Tipperary's no-show at least Mayo should ask some questions of Dublin in the final.

But it's a winner. Should be settled inplay.

corcaigh07

Some nice handicap opportunities towards the end of the game, always a good chance Tipp would hold the gap or reduce it. Had a small nibble myself, Tipp +18 with only about 15 mins left was in and around Evens.

Capt. Autumn

corcaigh07 wrote: »

Some nice handicap opportunities towards the end of the game, always a good chance Tipp would hold the gap or reduce it. Had a small nibble myself, Tipp +18 with only about 15 mins left was in and around Evens.

Always money to be made in-play but got totally burnt today so stayed away.

That was like seeing a game of football from 1981. 8 goals scored and as many goal chances spurned. I'm still trying to process what I just witnessed.

Pogue eile

Capt. Autumn wrote: »

I think Tipp would concede if fog stopped play.

For any of us that lost money today because of Tipperary's no-show at least Mayo should ask some questions of Dublin in the final.

The only question that Mayo will ask Dublin is 'please stop we are already dead'!

They conceded 3-13 against Tipp and it could have very easily been 6 or 7 goals, Dublin will absolutely tear them apart.

dobman88

Handicap -6 for the final? Seems like a gift