GAA Betting

ShamoBuc

dobman88 wrote: »

Yeah, it's pretty much printing money. You'd want to be hanging a few hundred minimum on it for it to be worth it though. If I had 600 quid lying around, I'd be all over it. Turn it into an even grand.

I understand where you are coming from but I've seen plenty of 'printing money' type bets lose down the years. I couldn't put 600 on that bet myself.

carq

Limerick -6 at 10/11 seems generous to me.
Cant see waterford living with them

Did you smash it

4/6 on Dublin is probably value but you’d need stones to put 600 euro on anything.

Kerry lost because they scored 10 points in 70 mins. The chances of Dublin ever scoring as little as 15 are negligible even given this championship will be played in winter conditions.

dobman88

Chalk McHugh wrote: »

I am more cautious than you lads about Dublin. .

That's only cos you support them though so you'll always have that niggling doubt. Its why I never have and never will back Kerry. I'm too emotionally involved.

Dublin will coast to this all Ireland. Other counties are still playing catch up at the moment while the Dubs are a tried and tested finished article who are capable of managing themselves on the pitch. No other county comes close to that yet.

As I said, I dont have enough cash in reserve to gamble on a 4/6 shot but if I was on it I'd be confident in it.

dobman88

ShamoBuc wrote: »

I understand where you are coming from but I've seen plenty of 'printing money' type bets lose down the years. I couldn't put 600 on that bet myself.

Fair enough. I just think it's as close to the proverbial sure thing as you're likely to see. I'm not even entertaining the notion of Dublin not winning the AI and I've been saying it since they won the 5.

ShamoBuc

dobman88 wrote: »

Fair enough. I just think it's as close to the proverbial sure thing as you're likely to see. I'm not even entertaining the notion of Dublin not winning the AI and I've been saying it since they won the 5.

A lot of people have in fairness but Kerry were 1/5 v Cork and I'm sure they thought they were a sure thing. Unfortunately from a Betting perspective, no such thing as a sure thing.

Chalk McHugh

Do people not realise the amount of one point wins and replays we had to win to do the 5 in a row? I've lost count at this stage but how we managed to come the right side of so many nailbiters is a minor miracle in itself. With 10 minutes to go in all of those games you wouldn't be feeling too comfortable with a 600e bet on, believe me.

Did you smash it

Chalk McHugh wrote: »

Do people not realise the amount of one point wins and replays we had to win to do the 5 in a row? I've lost count at this stage but how we managed to come the right side of so many nailbiters is a minor miracle in itself. With 10 minutes to go in all of those games you wouldn't be feeling too comfortable with a 600e bet on, believe me.

Dublin fans like to play down their chances but ultimately Dublin are the most unbeatable team in elite sport along with the US soccer ladies team that I’m aware of. Since 2015 The only competitions that Dublin entered that they didn’t win are the 2018, 2019 and 2021 leagues when they play weakened teams and just are building for championship.

The implied probability of odds of 4/6 is a 60% likelihood. Are Dublin 60% likely to win the all Ireland, well yes if that’s what the bookies say.

But I would say the likelihood of Dublin being taken out by someone would be more of 1 in 10 day fluke so more like 90%.

Jack Mccaffrey is probably the best player in the country after Clifford so that would give me pause for thought but that would be about it. Also a COVID outbreak is a possibility which would ruin your 600 euro.

But worrying about the standard level of the opposition would not be a big threat. Dublin can only beat themselves.

kilkenny34

Leinster semi Dubs 1/500
Leinster final 1/40
Semi v Donegal 1/4 to qualify..anyone else win Ulster 1/25
All Ireland v Mayo 1/5 outright....anyone else 1/14

Be my guesses at odds for Dubs on route to All Ireland.I myself think 4/6 is value ,I thought they be 1/2 after Sunday but all the aame dont want to lump om something that short.Value in an accum in my opinion though.

Chalk McHugh

Did you smash it wrote: »

Dublin fans like to play down their chances but ultimately Dublin are the most unbeatable team in elite sport along with the US soccer ladies team that I’m aware of. Since 2015 The only competitions that Dublin entered that they didn’t win are the 2018, 2019 and 2021 leagues when they play weakened teams and just are building for championship.

The implied probability of odds of 4/6 is a 60% likelihood. Are Dublin 60% likely to win the all Ireland, well yes if that’s what the bookies say.

But I would say the likelihood of Dublin being taken out by someone would be more of 1 in 10 day fluke so more like 90%.

Jack Mccaffrey is probably the best player in the country after Clifford so that would give me pause for thought but that would be about it. Also a COVID outbreak is a possibility which would ruin your 600 euro.

But worrying about the standard level of the opposition would not be a big threat. Dublin can only beat themselves.

Thank god you're not in charge of the betting markets in PP. At least the punters are getting a 60% return if their bet comes in. I'll keep my money in my pocket. There's far better 4/6 bets than that in my opinion.

keane2097

kilkenny34 wrote: »

Leinster semi Dubs 1/500
Leinster final 1/40
Semi v Donegal 1/4 to qualify..anyone else win Ulster 1/25
All Ireland v Mayo 1/5 outright....anyone else 1/14

Be my guesses at odds for Dubs on route to All Ireland.I myself think 4/6 is value ,I thought they be 1/2 after Sunday but all the aame dont want to lump om something that short.Value in an accum in my opinion though.

There's absolutely no way Dublin will be 1/25 if they meet Donegal.

kilkenny34

keane2097 wrote: »

There's absolutely no way Dublin will be 1/25 if they meet Donegal.

No 1/4 to qualify v donegal so 1/3 70 mins.The 1/25 is to qualify if they meet Armagh,Down or Cavan.

keane2097

kilkenny34 wrote: »

No 1/4 to qualify v donegal so 1/3 70 mins.The 1/25 is to qualify if they meet Armagh,Down or Cavan.

Sorry, don't mind me - obviously skipped most of the words in the middle of the sentences

1/4 v Donegal and 1/5 v Galway/Mayo likely to be spot on.

Did you smash it

Implied probability of odds of 4/6 is 60%. If you think Dublin’s probability of winning Sam is higher than that then the bet is value. Whether you have the means to get at stuck in at 4/6 is another question. People have been talking up dublin’s opponents disproportionately for years. The best chance the other counties have is a COVID outbreak in The Dublin dressing room.

mjp

Not a notion that they will be 1/5 to lift the cup against mayo in all irleand final if meet them especially as mayo are the one team irrespective of what form they in put it up to the dubs. They will be 1/3 at worse to lift the cup which gives them 2/5 or 4/11 in 70 mins market. They will blow the teams in leinster away as expected so can't see their current stock getting any higher.

dobman88

mjp wrote: »

Not a notion that they will be 1/5 to lift the cup against mayo in all irleand final if meet them especially after them bringing them to a replay last year. They will be 1/3 at worse in 70 mins which gives them 2/5 or 4/11 in lift the cup market. They will blow the teams in leinster away as expected so can't see their current stock getting any higher.

Unfortunately it was Kerry, not Mayo that lost the replay last year. Dublin bate Mayo well in the semi final before bearing Kerry well in the replay

RIALTO1

Some of the UK bookies offering 1/2 the odds E/W when Irish are naturally 1/4 the odds. So looking at the other side to Dublin:
Mayo 6/1 - so 3/1 to beat Galway (say 8/11 to qualify) & Cork (1/2)/Tipp (1/6)

Galway 15/2 - so 15/4 to beat Mayo (1/1) and Cork (1/2) Tipp (1/5)

Cork 11/1 - so 11/2 to beat Tipp then Mayo/Galway (1/5 & 2/1)

Obviously risking win stake as well but you will be able lay any of them at sub current prices to lift the cup in a final v Dublin - and you wouldn't be laying off vs Donegal I imagine

That's where the value is in my book if you can get anything decent on with those mobs.

RIALTO1

mjp wrote: »

Not a notion that they will be 1/5 to lift the cup against mayo in all irleand final if meet them especially after them bringing them to a replay last year. They will be 1/3 at worse in 70 mins which gives them 2/5 or 4/11 in lift the cup market. They will blow the teams in leinster away as expected so can't see their current stock getting any higher.

To lift the cup would be shorter odds than 70 mins.

kilkenny34

mjp wrote: »

Not a notion that they will be 1/5 to lift the cup against mayo in all irleand final if meet them especially after them bringing them to a replay last year. They will be 1/3 at worse in 70 mins which gives them 2/5 or 4/11 in lift the cup market. They will blow the teams in leinster away as expected so can't see their current stock



Kerry last year.If a team is1/3 in 70 mins they cant be better odds(2/5) in the outright.The outright allows for replays,extra time etc so your bet is safer hence will be less value.

mjp

RIALTO1 wrote: »

To lift the cup would be shorter odds than 70 mins.

Apologies mixed up the two odds when writing msg. Understand completely

Pogue eile

RIALTO1 wrote: »

Some of the UK bookies offering 1/2 the odds E/W when Irish are naturally 1/4 the odds. So looking at the other side to Dublin:
Mayo 6/1 - so 3/1 to beat Galway (say 8/11 to qualify) & Cork (1/2)/Tipp (1/6)

Galway 15/2 - so 15/4 to beat Mayo (1/1) and Cork (1/2) Tipp (1/5)

Cork 11/1 - so 11/2 to beat Tipp then Mayo/Galway (1/5 & 2/1)

Obviously risking win stake as well but you will be able lay any of them at sub current prices to lift the cup in a final v Dublin - and you wouldn't be laying off vs Donegal I imagine

That's where the value is in my book if you can get anything decent on with those mobs.

Agree fully and that was my angle into that market, have taken the Mayo 6/1 bet it screams value - but it is Mayo!

Capt. Autumn

Laois +16 against Dublin on Sunday. Evens on Boylesports. Has to be worth a punt.

Dublin's preparation cannot be as good as other years and this is the weather forecast for Sunday:
Sunday will be a cool, blustery day with widespread showers and a risk of hail and isolated thunderstorms.
That will keep the score down.

And just for fun, Dublin leading at half-time and Laois to win. 80/1 on Boyle

Don't laugh, there are goals in that Laois full-forward line...

mountgomery burns

Wexford -2 is bet of the weekend I think. Captain David McInerney confirmed out now to add to the other 5 or so first team players missing for Clare.

I'd forgive any team one bad game especially this year, but there should be enough motivation for Wexford to bounce back here. Even with only 14 men, you'd still have to view poorly Laois almost catching Clare on the line last weekend.

Also think Galway will have too much for KK, if Dublin hadn't put a rookie on TJ they might be in the Leinster final. Was really unimpressed with Dublin last weekend so it's a concern they ran them so close even at one stage they were being hammered. Galway -1 should do.

Double at 14/5

Pogue eile

mountgomery burns wrote: »

Wexford -2 is bet of the weekend I think. Captain David McInerney confirmed out now to add to the other 5 or so first team players missing for Clare.

I'd forgive any team one bad game especially this year, but there should be enough motivation for Wexford to bounce back here. Even with only 14 men, you'd still have to view poorly Laois almost catching Clare on the line last weekend.

Also think Galway will have too much for KK, if Dublin hadn't put a rookie on TJ they might be in the Leinster final. Was really unimpressed with Dublin last weekend so it's a concern they ran them so close even at one stage they were being hammered. Galway -1 should do.

Double at 14/5

PP had a specail treble yesterday, not sure if still available and it was Tipp, Galway and Wexford @ 5/1 thought it was a cracking bet. Strangely enough you would nearly have the biggest doubts about the AI champions of the trio!!

mountgomery burns

Pogue eile wrote: »

PP had a specail treble yesterday, not sure if still available and it was Tipp, Galway and Wexford @ 5/1 thought it was a cracking bet. Strangely enough you would nearly have the biggest doubts about the AI champions of the trio!!

Yeah I think Cork will be competitive to be honest so staying away from that one.

What odds would it be without the enhancement?

Pogue eile

mountgomery burns wrote: »

Yeah I think Cork will be competitive to be honest so staying away from that one.

What odds would it be without the enhancement?

A little over 3/1. 3.28/1 I make it.

Same As

Jennings Football Selections 14/11/2020 & 15/11/2020:


Saturday 14/11/2020:

Armagh-Armagh double result (Armagh vs Donegal)
2pts 10-1 bet365

Over 14.5 Armagh points (Armagh vs Donegal)
2pts 11-10 Betfair, Paddy Power

Jamie Clarke Man of the Match (Armagh vs Donegal)
1pt 14-1 Boylesports


Sunday 15/11/2020:

Meath -1 (Meath vs Kildare)
3pts Evs Betfair, Paddy Power


Mayo -1 (Galway vs Mayo)
2pts 23-20 bet365


Cavan (Down vs Cavan)
1pt 13-8 BoyleSports


Over 2.5 Dublin goals (Dublin vs Laois)
3pts 6-5 Paddy Power

Over 3.5 Dublin goals (Dublin vs Laois)
2pts 9-2 Paddy Power



Boylan Hurling Selections 14/11/2020 & 15/11/2020:


Saturday 14/11/2020:

Wexford to win by one to three points (Wexford vs Clare)
2pts 7-2 general

Clare-Wexford double result (Wexford vs Clare)
2pts 9-2 general


Tipperary -2 (Tipperary vs Cork)
4pts 10-11 general


Kilkenny draw no bet (Galway vs Kilkenny)
1pt 6-4 Boylesports

Over 3.5 goals (Galway vs Kilkenny)
1pt 5-6 Paddy Power


Sunday 15/11/2020:

Limerick -5 (Limerick vs Waterford)
1pt 4-5 general



Running Profit Loss for Racing Post Tipsters (Excluding Outright Selections in Post #266):


Jennings Total Points Staked: 171.5
Jennings Profit/Loss: +1.79
Jennings Total Selections: 78
Jennings Total Winners: 28
%: 35.90%


Boylan Total Points Staked: 79
Boylan Profit/Loss: -8.5
Boylan Total Selections: 46
Boylan Total Winners: 14
%: 30.44%

Loafing Oaf

On Galway & Down for a provincial double

Lundstram

Meath -1 to beat Kildare at EVS. This is a good Meath side that ran Dublin close a few weeks ago and demolished Wicklow last week while Kildare needed a late surge to see off a poor Offaly side. Meath scored 7 goals in their last game while Kildare have scored 1 goal in their last 6 games.

Pains me to type that as a Kildare man but that price is just too good to turn down.

mountgomery burns

One more small one, Mark Coleman under 0.5 points at 13/8.

Likely to play sweeper again, was very deep last weekend. I'd say it'll be the game worst affected by the weather this weekend too.

Chalk McHugh

Wexford -1 to beat Clare @ 4/5. Thats where my moneys going today.

Only need a 12 point swing in the second half now. Easy cash

Lundstram

Few bob on Jamie Clarke over 1.5 points at 4/6.

Chalk McHugh

Only a 12 point swing needed here for the second half

Capt. Autumn

Both tipsters on RTE going on Waterford against Tipperary in the Camogie.
Waterford at 2/1. Interesting.

ShamoBuc

Capt. Autumn wrote: »

Both tipsters on RTE going on Waterford against Tipperary in the Camogie.
Waterford at 2/1. Interesting.

Tip are a better team I think but 3 weeks without a game will make it harder,but I expect Tip to win.

Capt. Autumn

Wexford +5 playing with a gale against Clare.

Half-Time
All-Ireland SHC round 2
Wexford 0-3 Clare 0-13, MW Hire O'Moore Park, 2pm

There has to be a Wexford response here.

Lundstram

Lundstram wrote: »

Few bob on Jamie Clarke over 1.5 points at 4/6.

0-2 for Clarke, looked unlikely at half-time.

kilkenny34

kilkenny34 wrote: »

Handicap 12 now.

Apologies,my worst prediction in a long time.Hopefully Kilkenny can cheer me up later.Big struggle for Offaly.Sorry had to edit I quoted wrong,anyway my tip was Offaly minus 10,be doing well to beat minus 1 lol

kilkenny34

Fair play to Down won on penalties.Thats one of the biggest upsets I have seen in hurling to be honest.

kilkenny34

Fair play to Down won on penalties.Thats one of the biggest upsets I have seen in hurling to be honest.

Rasputin11

kilkenny34 wrote: »

Fair play to Down won on penalties.Thats one of the biggest upsets I have seen in hurling to be honest.

What price were Offaly?

kilkenny34

Rasputin11 wrote: »

What price were Offaly?

1/33 handicap 12

mountgomery burns

mountgomery burns wrote: »

Wexford -2 is bet of the weekend I think. Captain David McInerney confirmed out now to add to the other 5 or so first team players missing for Clare.

I'd forgive any team one bad game especially this year, but there should be enough motivation for Wexford to bounce back here. Even with only 14 men, you'd still have to view poorly Laois almost catching Clare on the line last weekend.

Also think Galway will have too much for KK, if Dublin hadn't put a rookie on TJ they might be in the Leinster final. Was really unimpressed with Dublin last weekend so it's a concern they ran them so close even at one stage they were being hammered. Galway -1 should do.

Double at 14/5

Shocked at that Wexford result.

Coleman didn't score so recouped some of the loss.

Rasputin11

kilkenny34 wrote: »

1/33 handicap 12

Some upset, must be up there with Antrim against Wexford U21 a few years ago.

Same As

Same As wrote: »

Jennings Football Selections 14/11/2020 & 15/11/2020:


Saturday 14/11/2020:

Armagh-Armagh double result (Armagh vs Donegal)
2pts 10-1 bet365 -2

Over 14.5 Armagh points (Armagh vs Donegal)
2pts 11-10 Betfair, Paddy Power -2

Jamie Clarke Man of the Match (Armagh vs Donegal)
1pt 14-1 Boylesports -1


Boylan Hurling Selections 14/11/2020:


Saturday 14/11/2020:

Wexford to win by one to three points (Wexford vs Clare)
2pts 7-2 general -2

Clare-Wexford double result (Wexford vs Clare)
2pts 9-2 general -2


Tipperary -2 (Tipperary vs Cork)
4pts 10-11 general +3.64


Kilkenny draw no bet (Galway vs Kilkenny)
1pt 6-4 Boylesports +1.5

Over 3.5 goals (Galway vs Kilkenny)
1pt 5-6 Paddy Power -1

-5 & -.86 respectively today.

Running Profit Loss for Racing Post Tipsters (Excluding Outright Selections in Post #266):


Jennings Total Points Staked: 176.5
Jennings Profit/Loss: -3.21
Jennings Total Selections: 81
Jennings Total Winners: 28
%: 34.57%


Boylan Total Points Staked: 89
Boylan Profit/Loss: -9.36
Boylan Total Selections: 51
Boylan Total Winners: 16
%: 31.37%


Jennings Football Selections 15/11/2020:


Sunday 15/11/2020:

Meath -1 (Meath vs Kildare)
3pts Evs Betfair, Paddy Power


Mayo -1 (Galway vs Mayo)
2pts 23-20 bet365


Cavan (Down vs Cavan)
1pt 13-8 BoyleSports


Over 2.5 Dublin goals (Dublin vs Laois)
3pts 6-5 Paddy Power

Over 3.5 Dublin goals (Dublin vs Laois)
2pts 9-2 Paddy Power


Boylan Hurling Selections 15/11/2020:


Limerick -5 (Limerick vs Waterford)
1pt 4-5 general

Capt. Autumn

kilkenny34 wrote: »

Fair play to Down won on penalties.Thats one of the biggest upsets I have seen in hurling to be honest.

Massive shock and one that would have incinerated many accumulators today.

Confirms that Offaly are now firmly in the third tier of hurling. A shame, because the number of teams dining at the top table is getting smaller and smaller.

Lundstram

Capt. Autumn wrote: »

Massive shock and one that would have incinerated many accumulators today.

Confirms that Offaly are now firmly in the third tier of hurling. A shame, because the number of teams dining at the top table is getting smaller and smaller.

If people put a 1/33 shot into an accumulator they deserve to lose it.

Capt. Autumn

Capt. Autumn wrote: »

Wexford +5 playing with a gale against Clare.

Half-Time
All-Ireland SHC round 2
Wexford 0-3 Clare 0-13, MW Hire O'Moore Park, 2 pm

There has to be a Wexford response here.

Full Time:
Clare 1-21
Wexford 0-17

Wexford got only three points closer despite the wind. Luckily for me I messed up on the betting slip and took Clare -5. Was going to double the money on Wexford +5 but the thought of a five-point difference between the teams dissuaded me.

I'd say that's the end of the Davy Fitzgerald saga in Wexford. They were so far off the pace this year, he'll hardly have the stomach to continue (ya know)

Capt. Autumn

Lundstram wrote: »

If people put a 1/33 shot into an accumulator they deserve to lose it.

But isn't that what accus are for? Dead certs or close to that?

Lundstram

Capt. Autumn wrote: »

But isn't that what accus are for? Dead certs or close to that?

Not the way I'd look at accums but I guess we're all different. Very rarely do them anyway, mugs game.