GAA Betting

Capt. Autumn

Lundstram wrote: »

If people put a 1/33 shot into an accumulator they deserve to lose it.

Lundstram wrote: »

Not the way I'd look at accums but I guess we're all different. Very rarely do them anyway, mugs game.

Agree with that.
Whenever you see bookies giving 'enhanced' odds, beware.

Rasputin11

Lundstram wrote: »

Not the way I'd look at accums but I guess we're all different. Very rarely do them anyway, mugs game.

Had Clonoulty in one before at 1/33, they lost, it cost me a right few bob and was contributing almost nothing to the odds.

Same As

Capt. Autumn wrote: »

Full Time:
Clare 1-21
Wexford 0-17

Wexford got only three points closer despite the wind. Luckily for me I messed up on the betting slip and took Clare -5. Was going to double the money on Wexford +5 but the thought of a five-point difference between the teams dissuaded me.

I'd say that's the end of the Davy Fitzgerald saga in Wexford. They were so far off the pace this year, he'll hardly have the stomach to continue (ya know)

Can you please stop with the after-timing?

Keano

Capt. Autumn wrote: »

Full Time:
Clare 1-21
Wexford 0-17

Wexford got only three points closer despite the wind. Luckily for me I messed up on the betting slip and took Clare -5. Was going to double the money on Wexford +5 but the thought of a five-point difference between the teams dissuaded me.

I'd say that's the end of the Davy Fitzgerald saga in Wexford. They were so far off the pace this year, he'll hardly have the stomach to continue (ya know)

After timing is frowned upon, please don’t do it again. Thanks

kilkenny34

Rasputin11 wrote: »

Some upset, must be up there with Antrim against Wexford U21 a few years ago.

Correct that is prob the biggest hurling shock in memory.Antrim barely trained for it.

Capt. Autumn

Total points Under 40.5 on Dublin vs Laois tomorrow available on Boyle @4/5

Last time out for Dublin, same venue 33 points were scored:
Dublin 0-22 Westmeath 0-11.

Weather forecast For tomorrow, Sunday, there will be a mix of bright or sunny spells and bands of showery rain. Southwest winds will be fresh and gusty. Maximum temperatures 9 to 11 degrees.

Of course, if Dublin turn on the afterburners this may well be breached but on a wet blustery day, I think it's a big ask.

Worth a small wager methinks.

Sultan of Bling

Capt. Autumn wrote:

Last time out for Dublin, same venue 33 points were scored: Dublin 0-22 Westmeath 0-11.

I think the game is in croke park.

Capt. Autumn

Sultan of Bling wrote: »

I think the game is in croke park.

Yes, Sultan, it is.

kilkenny34

3 hurling games today total points resulted in unders winning.Clare /Wex and Tipp/Cork comfortably under,be interesting to see the pitch in Thurles tomorrow as the unders might be the option again.

Up the cats.

Rasputin11

kilkenny34 wrote: »

Correct that is prob the biggest hurling shock in memory.Antrim barely trained for it.

Only sent down about 18 players.

Capt. Autumn

Capt. Autumn wrote: »

Yes, Sultan, it is.

My bad, Dublin/Westmeath was in O'Moore Park Portlaoise.

Lundstram

Lundstram wrote: »

Meath -1 to beat Kildare at EVS. This is a good Meath side that ran Dublin close a few weeks ago and demolished Wicklow last week while Kildare needed a late surge to see off a poor Offaly side. Meath scored 7 goals in their last game while Kildare have scored 1 goal in their last 6 games.

Pains me to type that as a Kildare man but that price is just too good to turn down.

Came in easily in the end.

Same As

Same As wrote: »

Jennings Football Selections 15/11/2020:


Sunday 15/11/2020:

Meath -1 (Meath vs Kildare)
3pts Evs Betfair, Paddy Power +3


Mayo -1 (Galway vs Mayo)
2pts 23-20 bet365 -2


Cavan (Down vs Cavan)
1pt 13-8 BoyleSports +1.63


Over 2.5 Dublin goals (Dublin vs Laois)
3pts 6-5 Paddy Power -3

Over 3.5 Dublin goals (Dublin vs Laois)
2pts 9-2 Paddy Power -2


Boylan Hurling Selections 15/11/2020:


Limerick -5 (Limerick vs Waterford)
1pt 4-5 general -1

-2.37 & -1 respectively today.

Updated Running Profit Loss for Racing Post Tipsters (Excluding Outright Selections in Post #266):


Jennings Total Points Staked: 187.5
Jennings Profit/Loss: -5.58
Jennings Total Selections: 86
Jennings Total Winners: 30
%: 34.89%


Boylan Total Points Staked: 90
Boylan Profit/Loss: -10.36
Boylan Total Selections: 52
Boylan Total Winners: 16
%: 30.77%

Pogue eile

Pogue eile wrote: »

PP had a specail treble yesterday, not sure if still available and it was Tipp, Galway and Wexford @ 5/1 thought it was a cracking bet. Strangely enough you would nearly have the biggest doubts about the AI champions of the trio!!

Well this aged well

keane2097

I mean, typically when PP enhance selections it means they want you to back them so it always pays to be very wary of teams that find their way into those specials.

Pogue eile

keane2097 wrote: »

I mean, typically when PP enhance selections it means they want you to back them so it always pays to be very wary of teams that find their way into those specials.

Why? In the case of GAA they have zero 'inside info', they are privy to the exact same info as Joe Public, it is simply one opinion v another, value is value whether it is in an enhanced special or not.

Incidentally the other GAA special at the weekend was Mayo, Meath and Limerick which came in @5/1.

These are promos, the max bet is €20 for a reason, there is nothing underhand or suspicious about them, if you see it as value then it is a no brainer. There are times where the enhancement is miniscule and times where another bookie is bigger without the enhancement but that is a different argument entirely.

keane2097

Pogue eile wrote: »

Why? In the case of GAA they have zero 'inside info', they are privy to the exact same info as Joe Public, it is simply one opinion v another, value is value whether it is in an enhanced special or not.

Incidentally the other GAA special at the weekend was Mayo, Meath and Limerick which came in @5/1.

These are promos, the max bet is €20 for a reason, there is nothing underhand or suspicious about them, if you see it as value then it is a no brainer. There are times where the enhancement is miniscule and times where another bookie is bigger without the enhancement but that is a different argument entirely.

I've just over the years found it profitable to be on high alert about the teams that end up in those specials. I suspect PP were looking to take on Mayo & Wexford and used the two specials to encourage money on them. If you think PP are picking the teams in them at random you can ignore the suggestion.

Pogue eile

keane2097 wrote: »

I've just over the years found it profitable to be on high alert about the teams that end up in those specials. I suspect PP were looking to take on Mayo & Wexford and used the two specials to encourage money on them. If you think PP are picking the teams in them at random you can ignore the suggestion.

I don't think they are random per se. Everyone knows that the profitable angle is to bet where you have an edge or where you see a rick in the market, by their very nature multiples invariably, not always but invariably, remove this edge simply because each market has an over-round of somewhere in the 110% bracket so once you multiply the over-round the chances of having an edge are reduced singnificantly.

In other words bookies love multiples and these enhanced trebles are just another way to entice punters to bet them, and with the €20 max there is no big risk.

keane2097

Pogue eile wrote: »

I don't think they are random per se. Everyone knows that the profitable angle is to bet where you have an edge or where you see a rick in the market, by their very nature multiples invariably, not always but invariably, remove this edge simply because each market has an over-round of somewhere in the 110% bracket so once you multiply the over-round the chances of having an edge are reduced singnificantly.

In other words bookies love multiples and these enhanced trebles are just another way to entice punters to bet them, and with the €20 max there is no big risk.

If you have edge in two markets the most profitable thing you can do is accumulate them, so you can rest assured that the multiples PP are encouraging are the ones containing the selections they are most confident they are not giving away edge in. They're not 'not random per se', they're not random full stop.

Pogue eile

keane2097 wrote: »

If you have edge in two markets the most profitable thing you can do is accumulate them, so you can rest assured that the multiples PP are encouraging are the ones containing the selections they are most confident they are not giving away edge in. They're not 'not random per se', they're not random full stop.

So you are accepting that the oddsmaker in PP knows more about the markets than you and has an edge? I certainly don't accept that, in fact I know one of them very well and I am reasonably confident I have an edge on him, particularly on Club matches.

If it is a case that the bookie has a knowledge edge then you should not be betting on GAA full stop, got nothing to do with accums or specials or any of the like.

You seem to be suggesting that PP are privy to some info that the ordinary punter isn't?

mountgomery burns

Are these not created by their marketing departments rather than traders?

Throw the few favourites into a treble, tack on one point (not much individually given you have 3 outcomes backed) and limit your exposure?

I doubt they are sitting there taking arbitrary views on who is vulnerable this weekend.

Pogue eile

mountgomery burns wrote: »

Are these not created by their marketing departments rather than traders?

Throw the few favourites into a treble, tack on one point (not much individually given you have 3 outcomes backed) and limit your exposure?

I doubt they are sitting there taking arbitrary views on who is vulnerable this weekend.

Absolutely 100% that's how it works. It has nothing in the slightest to do with them taking a position on one of the selections.

spurshero

I think Meath plus 10 v Dublin has a good chance . There scoring goals and if they could get one or two here they should cover the 10 . Anybody else any opinion .

Same As

spurshero wrote: »

I think Meath plus 10 v Dublin has a good chance . There scoring goals and if they could get one or two here they should cover the 10 . Anybody else any opinion .

Personally, I'd imagine the 12 goals in 2 games might have forewarned Dublin about the Meath goal threat. If Dublin do opt for a more defensive policy it does aid your case I'd guess.

The real mccoy 91

spurshero wrote: »

I think Meath plus 10 v Dublin has a good chance . There scoring goals and if they could get one or two here they should cover the 10 . Anybody else any opinion .

Going along that train of thought would it not be better to look at the meath goal markets? For me they arent scoring enough points to make me comfortable backing +10 but with boyles meath over 0.5 goals is 8/11 would be a less risky option in my eyes as I dont see them kicking 14/15 points or whatever they will need to stay within the handicap over 1.5 goals for meath is 4/1 which also looks quite juicy

ShamoBuc

The real mccoy 91 wrote: »

Going along that train of thought would it not be better to look at the meath goal markets? For me they arent scoring enough points to make me comfortable backing +10 but with boyles meath over 0.5 goals is 8/11 would be a less risky option in my eyes as I dont see them kicking 14/15 points or whatever they will need to stay within the handicap over 1.5 goals for meath is 4/1 which also looks quite juicy

That's exactly what I was thinking.

passremarkable

Tipp to beat cork in football is 9/2.
Feel like I’m missing something
Seems a really generous price

Pogue eile

passremarkable wrote: »

Tipp to beat cork in football is 9/2.
Feel like I’m missing something
Seems a really generous price

Seems short to me to be honest, Tipp haven't won a Munster Title in 85 years. Cork very much an up and coming team, and while they were fortunate to beat Kerry that was still a big step up on what Tipp produced against Limerick. Cork need to negate Sweeney and Quinlivan, outside of those two where will Tipp get scores? Cork are also very strong on opposition kick outs and Tipp have struggled all year to win their own kick outs.

I really hope I am wrong but cant see anything but a comfortable Cork victory. 9/2 certainly wouldn't be big enough to tempt me.

Scoundrel

Dublin -10 is an absolute gift Kildare had 18 shots at the posts in the first half against Meath give that to Dublin and it's lights out at half time.

mountgomery burns

I would say we are due a draw in the Hurling so bit wary of it going forward.

Fancy Galway at Evens DNB with Betfair. Should be 8/11 I think on form this year. Tipp haven't hit the heights yet, not sure they will either to be honest.

ShamoBuc

passremarkable wrote: »

Tipp to beat cork in football is 9/2.
Feel like I’m missing something
Seems a really generous price

If Cork only had a week between games, there would have been a chance to get caught but the 2 week break really should mean they were brought back down to earth and be focused enough to win somewhat comfortably.

spurshero

Scoundrel wrote: »

Dublin -10 is an absolute gift Kildare had 18 shots at the posts in the first half against Meath give that to Dublin and it's lights out at half time.

Take all the free money so. Dublin only beat Westmeath by 11 . Although there more comfortable at croker .,

Scoundrel

spurshero wrote: »

Take all the free money so. Dublin only beat Westmeath by 11 . Although there more comfortable at croker .,

I will I've it backed already they were only warming up vs Westmeath beat Laois by 20 last weekend

munster87

Scoundrel wrote: »

I will I've it backed already they were only warming up vs Westmeath beat Laois by 20 last weekend

Sure all of Leinster championship are warm up games

kilkenny34

Feel the bookies have priced up the hurling correctly.Dont think you could back the Galway Tipp game with any confidence.Should be a cracker.Waterford deserve to be favs but might find it hard after giving everything last weekend. Clare progressing well with all the injuries they have to be admired and won't fear Waterford.No bet in either.
In the football I couldn't back Meath plus 10,its out of their hands to an extent,if the Dubs are really hungry the 10 points could be covered by half time and the amount of goals Meath have scored so far wouldnt come into my thinking,Wicklow are no good and Kildares defending was awful.14 scores from Meath the last day is all.
Only bets I have done this week are ante post.Ciaran Kilkenny 7/2 FOTY and Padraig Walsh all star 4/5.

Chalk McHugh

Dublin v Meath - both teams to score a goal 5/6
Cork to score a goal v Tipp 1/4

100e double would return 130e profit.

RIALTO1

mountgomery burns wrote: »

I would say we are due a draw in the Hurling so bit wary of it going forward.

Fancy Galway at Evens DNB with Betfair. Should be 8/11 I think on form this year. Tipp haven't hit the heights yet, not sure they will either to be honest.

Keep flipping on this one. Think Galway left it behind them against KK (58% score conversion Vs 78% for KK), but lack of goals from them is the concern.

See someone mention draws - off the top of my head there were 2 handicap draws last weekend - could be a weekend for a few small doubles and trebles on the handicap draws as bookies generally not far off.

Same As

Same As wrote: »

Updated Running Profit Loss for Racing Post Tipsters (Excluding Outright Selections in Post #266):


Jennings Total Points Staked: 187.5
Jennings Profit/Loss: -5.58
Jennings Total Selections: 86
Jennings Total Winners: 30
%: 34.89%


Boylan Total Points Staked: 90
Boylan Profit/Loss: -10.36
Boylan Total Selections: 52
Boylan Total Winners: 16
%: 30.77%

Jennings Selections 21/11/2020 & 22/11/2020:


21/11/2020:

Meath +10 (Dublin vs Meath)
3pts 11-10 Boylesports

Meath over 13.5 points (Dublin vs Meath)
3pts 8-11 Boylesports

Both teams to score a goal (Dublin vs Meath):
2pts 21-20 Boylesports


22/11/2020:

Tipperary under 15.5 points (Cork vs Tipperary)
3pts 4-6 Paddy Power


Under 36.5 points (Cavan vs Donegal)
3pts 10-11 Boylesports

Donegal under 22.5 points (Cavan vs Donegal)
3pts 4-5 Boylesports



Boylan Hurling Selections 21/11/2020:


Galway +1 (Galway vs Tipperary)
2pts 4-5 Paddy Power

A draw or either team to win by less than four points (Galway vs Tipperary)
3pts 4-6 Ladbrokes

Over 51.5 points (Galway vs Tipperary)
2pts 5-6 Paddy Power

Conor Whelan to score a goal (Galway vs Tipperary)
1pt 7-4 Boylesports

Brian Concannon to score a goal (Galway vs Tipperary)
1pt 15-8 Paddy Power


Clare +3 (Clare vs Waterford)
2pts 10-11 Paddy Power

Clare half-time, Waterford full-time (Clare vs Waterford)
1pt 9-2 Boylesports

Tony Kelly to be awarded Hurler of the Year (All Ireland Hurling Championship 2020)
1pt 6-1 Paddy Power

kilkenny34

For anyone that fancies Tipp and Watrerord it just works out at slightly over 2/1,well PP have a special of 7/2 with Dublin footballers in it so you are getting a decent enhancement really.Max bet is only 20.

corcaigh07

passremarkable wrote: »

Tipp to beat cork in football is 9/2.
Feel like I’m missing something
Seems a really generous price

I think so too, Tipp have excellent forwards that could hurt Cork. Powter also out for Cork is a massive blow.

I still fancy Cork but I'd be surprised if they cover the -5 handicap.

Capt. Autumn

Raining in Kildare 2 and a half hours before throw-in.
Under 38.5 points Dublin vs Meath looking more likely now,
5/4 on Boyle.

mountgomery burns

mountgomery burns wrote: »

I would say we are due a draw in the Hurling so bit wary of it going forward.

Fancy Galway at Evens DNB with Betfair. Should be 8/11 I think on form this year. Tipp haven't hit the heights yet, not sure they will either to be honest.

Lucky enough this one though the red card was harsh but will take it.

corcaigh07

Scoundrel wrote: »

Dublin -10 is an absolute gift Kildare had 18 shots at the posts in the first half against Meath give that to Dublin and it's lights out at half time.

Thank you sir, went with this (small money admittedly, whatever was left in the account) and looks like it's done already at HT. Dublin in Croker are a scoring machine.

Capt. Autumn

Half-time Dublin vs Meath and the handicap is 24 points.
This has to be some kind of a record.

I'm reluctantly taking Meath +24 on a small wager simply because they have to show more in the second half.
14 points down at the break.

Sultan of Bling

Capt. Autumn wrote:

Half-time Dublin vs Meath and the handicap is 24 points. This has to be some kind of a record.

Capt. Autumn wrote:

I'm reluctantly taking Meath +24 on a small wager simply because they have to show more in the second half. 14 points down at the break.

Reckon that's a solid shout. You'd imagine a lot of changes in the second half. A lot of stop start. Dubs will probably empty the bench.

ShamoBuc

Sultan of Bling wrote: »

Reckon that's a solid shout. You'd imagine a lot of changes in the second half. A lot of stop start. Dubs will probably empty the bench.

Problem is the Dublin bench are looking to start and will try to prove their worth against a tired Meeath defence.

Scoundrel

corcaigh07 wrote: »

Thank you sir, went with this (small money admittedly, whatever was left in the account) and looks like it's done already at HT. Dublin in Croker are a scoring machine.

Yep I didn't think it would be this easy mind you but like I said it was an absolute gift the bookies don't give them out too often.

Capt. Autumn

Capt. Autumn wrote: »

Half-time Dublin vs Meath and the handicap is 24 points.
This has to be some kind of a record.

I'm reluctantly taking Meath +24 on a small wager simply because they have to show more in the second half.
14 points down at the break.

Leinster SFC final full time: Dublin 3-21 Meath 0-9

Not a given until the final whistle.
Dublin were unplayable tonight.

liosnagceann75

Was man of the match announced yet?

dobman88

liosnagceann75 wrote: »

Was man of the match announced yet?

Rock