FF/FG/Green Next Government

JohnnyFlash

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

LOL she's happy in opposition. The heat was too much in health.

"Pre-election promises" She can sit in lofty opposition and condemn the government for not delivering. Good times.

Bang of student politics off them, Dave.

Bannasidhe

jmayo wrote: »

Funny how it is usually Dublin based posters, probably Dublin bred posters or the ones that would like to forget their rural roots, that are always quick to attribute pork barrel and parish pump politics to the country when it has been very evident within their own backyard.

How quickly Tony Gregory was forgotten. His shopping list to Haughey was a master class in looking after your parish.

James Brown

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

LOL she's happy in opposition. The heat was too much in health.

"Pre-election promises" She can sit in lofty opposition and condemn the government for not delivering. Good times.

Yeah, I disagree. She gave up a cushy number because Labour wouldn't hold FG to account. That's great in my book.

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

Bang of student politics off them, Dave.

Except for the experience and what not...

Topgear on Dave

The dept of health is regarded as a cushy number now.

That will come as news to many.

JohnnyFlash

Bowie wrote: »

Yeah, I disagree. She gave up a cushy number because Labour wouldn't hold FG to account. That's great in my book.



Except for the experience and what not...

The Soc Dems might enter a coalition someday if they haven't returned to the Labour mothership.


Their ministers will sit in behind their desk, and spend most of the first week meeting senior civil servants from their department, the department of Finance, and the department of the Taoiseach. Here they will learn the harsh realities of having limited budgets, not being able to deliver everything, learning about things that aren't working as they should, and lots of other things involved in realpolitik.



Tough job. And some of their supporters will jump ship to the next cute and cuddly party promising a utopia. These supporters always do that though. Very fickle and fundamentally naive bunch who think all this stuff is easy, and parties should just 'get down and do it' without ever really exploring the myriad of intricacies involved. Simple solutions to complex issues sort of folks.



:cool:

jimmycrackcorm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Did somebody mention 'parish pump' pollitics? Leo had the cheek to say today, defending the omission that 'all ministers have a national remit' yet here is how he sells himself.

You didn't know that ministers are also TD's that represent their consituency also?

James Brown

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

The dept of health is regarded as a cushy number now.

That will come as news to many.

A ministerial position or a party with no seats. Which would be cushier? Isn't a FF/FG/Eamon Ryan wouldn't step over their dying mother

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

The Soc Dems might enter a coalition ....

You said they'd no experience in government then made light of the fact that they never sold out.
Threading water to try justify your nonsense.

Topgear on Dave

Bowie wrote: »

A ministerial position or a party with no seats. Which would be cushier? Isn't a FF/FG/Eamon Ryan wouldn't step over their dying mother
.

But they do have seats. In opposition without any responsibility. Good times and solid wages.

Iv no idea what the 2nd sentence means.

Edgware

The new Chief Whip will do allright playing the long game. He has the State car, can gather the anti Martins around him, will still have enough influence to push a few goodies to Mayo.
Martin will probably stand down as F.F. leader before the next election and Dara will be in a very strong position to take the leadership

Floppybits

Edgware wrote: »

Martin will probably stand down as F.F. leader before the next election and Dara will be in a very strong position to take the leadership

I can see Martin standing down after he completes his stint as shortest Taoiseach, head to the back benches and not be seen or heard from for his remaining time in the Dail, similar to what Kenny and Noonan did in the last Dail.

jmayo

Edgware wrote: »

The new Chief Whip will do allright playing the long game. He has the State car, can gather the anti Martins around him, will still have enough influence to push a few goodies to Mayo.
Martin will probably stand down as F.F. leader before the next election and Dara will be in a very strong position to take the leadership

Actually Martin might throw some crumbs to Mayo so that he placates the local organisation that has told him not to show his nose in the county.

But Martin will be stood down, the knives are out.
He is picking up enemies at a rate of knots at this stage.

Also expect ff to throw their junior ministers to the West probably with Anne Rabitte and Marc MacSharry given gigs.

The only other options are McConalogue in Donegal and O'Cuiv in Galway West.
And there is no way O'Cuiv will get anything no more than McGuinnness.
Actually McGuinness I would say is head and shoulders above most if not of the fianna failers that are anywhere near the cabinet.

Further South you have Crowe in Clare, O'Dea in Limerick City and Collins in Limerick County.
Not sure Martin wants to have O'Dea around to remind everyone of the old days and Collins might be too close geographically to Kerry minister for his own good.

TCDStudent1

jmayo wrote: »

Actually Martin might throw some crumbs to Mayo so that he placates the local organisation that has told him not to show his nose in the county.

But Martin will be stood down, the knives are out.
He is picking up enemies at a rate of knots at this stage.

Also expect ff to throw their junior ministers to the West probably with Anne Rabitte and Marc MacSharry given gigs.

The only other options are McConalogue in Donegal and O'Cuiv in Galway West.
And there is no way O'Cuiv will get anything no more than McGuinnness.
Actually McGuinness I would say is head and shoulders above most if not of the fianna failers that are anywhere near the cabinet.

Further South you have Crowe in Clare, O'Dea in Limerick City and Collins in Limerick County.
Not sure Martin wants to have O'Dea around to remind everyone of the old days and Collins might be too close geographically to Kerry minister for his own good.

Ciaran Cannon (FG) in Galway East will also probably get a junior ministry.

jmayo

TCDStudent1 wrote: »

Ciaran Cannon (FG) in Galway East will also probably get a junior ministry.

Yeah but it is Martin that is really under pressure not Leo.

blanch152

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

But they do have seats. In opposition without any responsibility. Good times and solid wages.

Iv no idea what the 2nd sentence means.

That second sentence is some sort of nonsensical rant about the new government. Poor Bowie is taking it hard, he changed his username because he thought his previous one had helped get rid of Varadkar, but like Holohan in Tallaght, he is crying in his cups at the idea of Varadkar grinning at him from a powerful position on the tv for the next five years.

James Brown

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

But they do have seats. In opposition without any responsibility. Good times and solid wages.

Iv no idea what the 2nd sentence means.

You suggested nobody wanted health, this would be true if they'd other options or no interest in serving the public, otherwise they'd jump at it.
Wee Eoghan would have taken it.

Brendan Bendar

jmayo wrote: »

Actually Martin might throw some crumbs to Mayo so that he placates the local organisation that has told him not to show his nose in the county.

But Martin will be stood down, the knives are out.
He is picking up enemies at a rate of knots at this stage.

Also expect ff to throw their junior ministers to the West probably with Anne Rabitte and Marc MacSharry given gigs.

The only other options are McConalogue in Donegal and O'Cuiv in Galway West.
And there is no way O'Cuiv will get anything no more than McGuinnness.
Actually McGuinness I would say is head and shoulders above most if not of the fianna failers that are anywhere near the cabinet.

Further South you have Crowe in Clare, O'Dea in Limerick City and Collins in Limerick County.
Not sure Martin wants to have O'Dea around to remind everyone of the old days and Collins might be too close geographically to Kerry minister for his own good.

Time to clear out that lot of dinosaurs.

Martin is dead right , shake those churns up, have had it too easy.

Ruling their areas like feudal lords, Nah, mate, good riddance.

90% of the populace never heard of Calleary up to this.

Not doubting the man but much ado about nothing.

CrankyHaus

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

Time to clear out that lot of dinosaurs.

Martin is dead right , shake those churns up, have had it too easy.

Ruling their areas like feudal lords, Nah, mate, good riddance.

90% of the populace never heard of Calleary up to this.

Not doubting the man but much ado about nothing.

Have to agree. The idea of spending a decade claiming that you're de-toxifying Fianna Fail, and then throwing the likes of Willie O'Dea into Government first chance you get, is ridiculous. MM has the national image of the party to consider, and it's not helped by a gang of Tull McAdoo's indulging illusions that they're kingmakers.Whatever about the death of FF, nothing will speed its demise faster than partying like it's 1999.

Bannasidhe

CrankyHaus wrote: »

Have to agree. The idea of spending a decade claiming that you're de-toxifying Fianna Fail, and then throwing the likes of Willie O'Dea into Government first chance you get, is ridiculous. MM has the national image of the party to consider, and it's not helped by a gang of Tull McAdoo's indulging illusions that they're kingmakers.Whatever about the death of FF, nothing will speed its demise faster than partying like it's 1999.

I honestly think it's too little to late for FF.
Their one chance was to stamp their name all over this govt but instead it looks very much like FG called the shots and took the big ticket posts while FF got the pool of death.
Unless Donnelly can pull off a miracle in Health, ditto O'Brien in Housing, and Foley can come up with a workable plan for reopening schools they are toast.
They have 2 years while FG are waiting in the wings to swoop in and 'take control' to sort out another FF mess (they hope) - it's tradition.

Loafing Oaf

Bannasidhe wrote: »

I honestly think it's too little to late for FF.
Their one chance was to stamp their name all over this govt but instead it looks very much like FG called the shots and took the big ticket posts while FF got the pool of death.
Unless Donnelly can pull off a miracle in Health, ditto O'Brien in Housing, and Foley can come up with a workable plan for reopening schools they are toast.
They have 2 years while FG are waiting in the wings to swoop in and 'take control' to sort out another FF mess (they hope) - it's tradition.

Not sure. I reckon as this government goes on and (hopefully) the immediate medical emergency recedes, the poll ratings of FF and FG will even up.

Snow Garden

Bannasidhe wrote: »

I honestly think it's too little to late for FF.
Their one chance was to stamp their name all over this govt but instead it looks very much like FG called the shots and took the big ticket posts while FF got the pool of death.
Unless Donnelly can pull off a miracle in Health, ditto O'Brien in Housing, and Foley can come up with a workable plan for reopening schools they are toast.
They have 2 years while FG are waiting in the wings to swoop in and 'take control' to sort out another FF mess (they hope) - it's tradition.

There will be no miracles here I am afraid. Reality will hit when the Covid payments are stopped and the final budget deficit is calculated. FG may have an opportunity to play the hero but it will be short lived and quickly forgotten. A cash strapped Health minister wont be able to make the changes required to reform the HSE - this government won't make the necessary hard decisions. Like most vote and expenses obsessed Irish governments.
Only winners at next GE are SF, Labour and SDs. Maybe a new party will emerge that is not full of lunatics.

Brendan Bendar

CrankyHaus wrote: »

Have to agree. The idea of spending a decade claiming that you're de-toxifying Fianna Fail, and then throwing the likes of Willie O'Dea into Government first chance you get, is ridiculous. MM has the national image of the party to consider, and it's not helped by a gang of Tull McAdoo's indulging illusions that they're kingmakers.Whatever about the death of FF, nothing will speed its demise faster than partying like it's 1999.

Someone with a bit of sense at last on these hallowed forums.

Time to flush these churns out of system has come, hopefully Martin will hold his nerve and keep the Juniors ‘fresh’ .

This “Welcome to Parlon country” fcukkery must never be a allowed to take hold again.

We have one ‘swamp’ in the South west that needs draining, and that’s one too many.

The Taoiseach has every right to go anywhere in the State he wishes.

These personal ‘fiefdoms’ went out with the dinosaurs.

FrancieBrady

CrankyHaus wrote: »

Have to agree. The idea of spending a decade claiming that you're de-toxifying Fianna Fail, and then throwing the likes of Willie O'Dea into Government first chance you get, is ridiculous. MM has the national image of the party to consider, and it's not helped by a gang of Tull McAdoo's indulging illusions that they're kingmakers.Whatever about the death of FF, nothing will speed its demise faster than partying like it's 1999.

Which is great in theory until you look at who he did give jobs to. Acquiescing to FG is what happened here.

An urban-centric cabinet and FF getting the blame for it. You can dress it up anyway you want but it is FF 0 - FG 1.

RandomViewer

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

Someone with a bit of sense at last on these hallowed forums.

Time to flush these churns out of system has come, hopefully Martin will hold his nerve and keep the Juniors ‘fresh’ .

This “Welcome to Parlon country” fcukkery must never be a allowed to take hold again.

We have one ‘swamp’ in the South west that needs draining, and that’s one too many.

The Taoiseach has every right to go anywhere in the State he wishes.

These personal ‘fiefdoms’ went out with the dinosaurs.

Pardon was a PD

Bannasidhe

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Not sure. I reckon as this government goes on and (hopefully) the immediate medical emergency recedes, the poll ratings of FF and FG will even up.

Health was already in crises before Covid hit and when the emergency recedes what will be left is an even larger backlog than before plus HCW's who are pretty angry at the way they feel they have been treated. Not to to mention the money will need to be found to backpay the increases awarded to nurses.

Housing is another long running nightmare. Compounded by this AIB bombshell

AIB has introduced wide-ranging restrictions on mortgage lending in light of the Covid-19 pandemic, internal documents seen by The Irish Times reveal.

They include a de-facto ban on mortgage lending to those in receipt of State wage subsidies and extra scrutiny on applications from people working in “high risk” sectors of the economy.

The changes, which will extend to its specialist mortgage lenders EBS and Haven, were described as “frightening” by one mortgage market source, who added it would have “huge ramifications”

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/aib-introduces-frightening-mortgage-rules-and-halts-lending-to-covid-payment-recipients-1.4290956

People who had committed to buying a house are unable to draw down their mortgage to close the sale. People in "high risk" sectors may find themselves shut out.

And the schools - there is already uproar that there is no plan yet to guide the schools on social distancing and won't be til later in the summer. have read the roadmap and it's long on discussing impacts and outlining what steps will need to be implemented but lacking in practical advice, costing, funding etc.
It will have to be one helluva plan tbh and schools need time to get ready.

When the emergency is over (and that could be a very long time as this virus is not going away soon and the CMO is expressing concern over foreign travel so looks like he fears a surge in Autumn) is when the manure will hit the exact fans FF are holding.

Scoundrel

Bannasidhe wrote: »

I honestly think it's too little to late for FF.
Their one chance was to stamp their name all over this govt but instead it looks very much like FG called the shots and took the big ticket posts while FF got the pool of death.
Unless Donnelly can pull off a miracle in Health, ditto O'Brien in Housing, and Foley can come up with a workable plan for reopening schools they are toast.
They have 2 years while FG are waiting in the wings to swoop in and 'take control' to sort out another FF mess (they hope) - it's tradition.

It looks to me like FG have done FF up like kippers here FF have Angola housing etc all the crap and FG have pretty much all the non controversial posts.

James Brown

Scoundrel wrote: »

It looks to me like FG have done FF up like kippers here FF have Angola housing etc all the crap and FG have pretty much all the non controversial posts.

Only with high profile spots can they win or lose votes.
If FF tackle housing and even make an effort on health by reversing the trend they'll do very well out of it.

Bannasidhe

Bowie wrote: »

Only with high profile spots can they win or lose votes.
If FF tackle housing and even make an effort on health by reversing the trend they'll do very well out of it.

I am open being surprised and O'Brien/English might have a barnstorming plan to sort out a crises years in the making but nothing I have seen of either of them makes me think they do.

Scoundrel

Bowie wrote: »

Only with high profile spots can they win or lose votes.
If FF tackle housing and even make an effort on health by reversing the trend they'll do very well out of it.

I wish I had your optimism and belief in Donnelly and O Brien given the state of the states finances post COVID things in the problem departments are only going to get worse not better.

FF have no plan on housing it's basically the same as FG leave it upto the market and the market can't deliver affordable housing as it's sole purpose is to deliver profitable housing for developers and they will do nothing for hard pressed renters for the same reasons as FG and as for Angola that will dent Mr Donnellys ego very quickly.

Elmo

Bowie wrote: »

If FF tackle housing and even make an effort on health by reversing the trend they'll do very well out of it.

I don't think they can. The public will see them with FG, and if Leo takes over in 2 years and the go into an election with FG at the helm then its an FG election. Unless FG feck up so much in those 2 years.

I see FF down at their core 14% vote, with FG keeping 34% and SF keeping 27%, I don't think it will be as quick a change from the current poll as it was for Labour. The Green vote will head towards Soc Dems, I wouldn't be surprise if Soc Dems become Green Social Democrats (GSD) or something.

blanch152

Bannasidhe wrote: »

Health was already in crises before Covid hit and when the emergency recedes what will be left is an even larger backlog than before plus HCW's who are pretty angry at the way they feel they have been treated. Not to to mention the money will need to be found to backpay the increases awarded to nurses.

Housing is another long running nightmare. Compounded by this AIB bombshell

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/aib-introduces-frightening-mortgage-rules-and-halts-lending-to-covid-payment-recipients-1.4290956

People who had committed to buying a house are unable to draw down their mortgage to close the sale. People in "high risk" sectors may find themselves shut out.

And the schools - there is already uproar that there is no plan yet to guide the schools on social distancing and won't be til later in the summer. have read the roadmap and it's long on discussing impacts and outlining what steps will need to be implemented but lacking in practical advice, costing, funding etc.
It will have to be one helluva plan tbh and schools need time to get ready.

When the emergency is over (and that could be a very long time as this virus is not going away soon and the CMO is expressing concern over foreign travel so looks like he fears a surge in Autumn) is when the manure will hit the exact fans FF are holding.

The schools one is easy. All the health advice has to say is that kids are not vectors of the disease, and don't have to social distance once they are in pods of 30 or less. Adults supervising them should social distance.

So schools can open, with the main issues being around staff rooms and lunch breaks for the adults as well as SNAs in classrooms.

Most schools are well advanced on planning for that and can cope.