FF/FG/Green Next Government

James Brown

Scoundrel wrote: »

I wish I had your optimism and belief in Donnelly and O Brien given the state of the states finances post COVID things in the problem departments are only going to get worse not better.

FF have no plan on housing it's basically the same as FG leave it upto the market and the market can't deliver affordable housing as it's sole purpose is to deliver profitable housing for developers and they will do nothing for hard pressed renters for the same reasons as FG and as for Angola that will dent Mr Donnellys ego very quickly.

They were on about more social and affordable. I think it's the way to go.
We let health become the poison chalice and housing is coming that way but any government won't have unions and so on to hide behind. It also frees them up to completely re-write housing policy.

Bannasidhe

blanch152 wrote: »

The schools one is easy. All the health advice has to say is that kids are not vectors of the disease, and don't have to social distance once they are in pods of 30 or less. Adults supervising them should social distance.

So schools can open, with the main issues being around staff rooms and lunch breaks for the adults as well as SNAs in classrooms.

Most schools are well advanced on planning for that and can cope.

Really?
This was Sat 13th June and it certainly does not say that most schools are well advanced. The theme seems to be schools aren't sure what the hell is happening and teachers are not happy.

The Teachers’ Union of Ireland (TUI) criticised the reopening plans as “odd and alarming”, saying they paid “insufficient attention to public health advice”.

“Classrooms are workplaces – crowded ones at that. These workplaces cannot be treated as if they enjoy some magical immunity from the risk that characterises other workplaces,” TUI president Séamus Laharte said.

The Association of Secondary Teachers Ireland said it would be very concerned if physical distancing in schools deviated from what existed in wider society.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/teachers-alarmed-at-plan-to-reopen-schools-without-social-distancing-1.4277915

They are discussing children not attending everyday - what exactly do working parents do on the day children are not in school? Where is the plan for that?
https://www.thejournal.ie/schools-reopening-ireland-social-distancing-5121318-Jun2020/

The latest plan I read (12th June) was partial attendance.
Will there be a situation in late August where a family with a boy and girl each is a single sex primary school and an older child who has just begun secondary are faced with the primary school children attending 2.5 days a week but not the same 2.5 days (supposing 1 metre rule - it's 2 days if 2 metres remains), the secondary school is 50% - is that all morning? Afternoons? 2.5 days? It could end up with at least one child off school every day- how are working parent's meant to co-ordinate this? How are schools?

dundalkfc10

Bannasidhe wrote: »

Really?
This was Sat 13th June and it certainly does not say that most schools are well advanced. The theme seems to be schools aren't sure what the hell is happening and teachers are not happy.


https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/teachers-alarmed-at-plan-to-reopen-schools-without-social-distancing-1.4277915

They are discussing children not attending everyday - what exactly do working parents do on the day children are not in school? Where is the plan for that?
https://www.thejournal.ie/schools-reopening-ireland-social-distancing-5121318-Jun2020/

The latest plan I read (12th June) was partial attendance.
Will there be a situation in late August where a family with a boy and girl each is a single sex primary school and an older child who has just begun secondary are faced with the primary school children attending 2.5 days a week but not the same 2.5 days (supposing 1 metre rule - it's 2 days if 2 metres remains), the secondary school is 50% - is that all morning? Afternoons? 2.5 days? It could end up with at least one child off school every day- how are working parent's meant to co-ordinate this? How are schools?

Sure it will be grand

JohnnyFlash

It will be very difficult to make substantive changes to health and housing if we are running enormous budget deficits, have 20% unemployment rates, and have Brexit looming.

Money doesn't grow on trees, and we are facing into some of the most extraordinary challenges we have faced as a country since our foundation. We will be borrowing heavily (pushing that can down the road for the next generations to sort out); there might be some level of debt write-off, and we will be able to tap into EU funds if they can all agree on that (that will come with its own condition though like tax harmonisation across the EU).

It's about the economy, stupid, as James Carville once quipped.

dundalkfc10

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

It will be very difficult to make substantive changes to health and housing if we are running enormous budget deficits, have 20% unemployment rates, and have Brexit looming.

Money doesn't grow on trees, and we are facing into some of the most extraordinary challenges we have faced as a country since our foundation. We will be borrowing heavily (pushing that can down the road for the next generations to sort out); there might be some level of debt write-off, and we will be able to tap into EU funds if they can all agree on that (that will come with its own condition though like tax harmonisation across the EU).

It's about the economy, stupid, as James Carville once quipped.

They managed to make changes so bad this past decade that Health Service and Housing are both in their biggest crisis ever. God knows what it will be like in 2021 never mind a few years

Brendan Bendar

dundalkfc10 wrote: »

They managed to make changes so bad this past decade that Health Service and Housing are both in their biggest crisis ever. God knows what it will be like in 2021 never mind a few years

Well unless the vested interests and the Unions don’t change you could be correct.

You see, my friend EVERYBODY has all the ‘answers’ except for their own area.

You have been taken in by the vested interests, my friend along with many other gullible but basically good people, and have not drilled into the real reasons why Health was called ‘Angola’

There is a reason for everything,a chara.

dundalkfc10

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

Well unless the vested interests and the Unions don’t change you could be correct.

You see, my friend EVERYBODY has all the ‘answers’ except for their own area.

You have been taken in by the vested interests, my friend along with many other gullible but basically good people, and have not drilled into the real reasons why Health was called ‘Angola’

There is a reason for everything,a chara.

Its this kind of attitude of patronizing superiority which is very annoying on here.

We are FG/FF we are better than you

Brendan Bendar

dundalkfc10 wrote: »

Its this kind of attitude of patronizing superiority which is very annoying on here.

We are FG/FF we are better than you

It’s fact unfortunately, what you infer from posts is your own inference.

Maybe you could do better to address the points made .

James Brown

dundalkfc10 wrote: »

They managed to make changes so bad this past decade that Health Service and Housing are both in their biggest crisis ever. God knows what it will be like in 2021 never mind a few years

Yes. We've no money again. Blast missed out on that strong growing economy, could have fixed loads. Ah sure next time. We need any money we have for the next quango or state project we let run monstrously over budget.
'Tis the circle of life FF/FG.

JohnnyFlash

Bowie wrote: »

Yes. We've no money again. Blast missed out on that strong growing economy, could have fixed loads. Ah sure next time. We need any money we have for the next quango or state project we let run monstrously over budget.
'Tis the circle of life FF/FG.

We had our first budget surplus in over 12 years only last year. That brings down the cost of borrowing, and allows us to do nice things with the money. A decision was made during the last crash to maintain the majority of social welfare payments instead of investing in capital projects. I'd agree that was the wrong thing to do in the circumstances, but I'd be Kenysian enough in my thinking.

Issues around housing and the delivery of healthcare are issues that are impacting almost every mature social democracy in the world. People are living longer due to excellent healthcare, and if they do get sick then outcomes are very positive. This comes at enormous cost.

Housing is the same - people are living longer so the housing stock isn't being released to the market. Worldwide we see trends of people moving to cities which puts pressure on the housing markets in these cities. We also attract lots of overseas workers who come here to work in multinationals and in jobs that Irish people don't want to do.

No simple solutions here, dude. Big complex issues with lots of the devil in the detail. No money trees exist.

Brendan Bendar

Bowie wrote: »

Yes. We've no money again. Blast missed out on that strong growing economy, could have fixed loads. Ah sure next time. We need any money we have for the next quango or state project we let run monstrously over budget.
'Tis the circle of life FF/FG.

Maybe we should cut the benefits from those able bodied lads and lassies roaring into mobile phones around every town and city in the country.

That might be a start anyway.......

Bannasidhe

dundalkfc10 wrote: »

Sure it will be grand

That does seem to be the plan.

Bannasidhe

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

We had our first budget surplus in over 12 years only last year. That brings down the cost of borrowing, and allows us to do nice things with the money. A decision was made during the last crash to maintain the majority of social welfare payments instead of investing in capital projects. I'd agree that was the wrong thing to do in the circumstances, but I'd be Kenysian enough in my thinking.

The SME's are saying they are in trouble. Many retail, hospitality etc won't survive without grant aid is their fear. That sector needs a dig out.
We are looking at a jump in those who will need social welfare which, as was tacitly acknowledged when the Cv19 payment was increased to €350, is not enough at the basic rate of €203. A situation where people lose their jobs due to CV19 related closures who then see their support reduced to less than €200 if SW was cut would be both a disaster in PR terms and the death knell for many SME's as the amount of disposable income in circulation is drastically reduced. SW payments are generally spend locally.

I am very much beginning to think Universal Basic Income is the way to go. It would provide income supports to SME's reducing the need for grand aid, allow the unemployed to look at pt/job share work, end the cumbersome and expensive administration costs of the Dept of SP.

On Capital Investment - funding of that under FG has been to see the Magic Money Tree in action. The cost increases are never ending and the projects never finished.

To clarify - absolutely we need capital investment but not without the tender process being overhauled, a stop put to ever increasing costs, and the whole construction process streamlined so a few years not several years.

Edgware

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

We had our first budget surplus in over 12 years only last year. That brings down the cost of borrowing, and allows us to do nice things with the money. A decision was made during the last crash to maintain the majority of social welfare payments instead of investing in capital projects. I'd agree that was the wrong thing to do in the circumstances, but I'd be Kenysian enough in my thinking.

Issues around housing and the delivery of healthcare are issues that are impacting almost every mature social democracy in the world. People are living longer due to excellent healthcare, and if they do get sick then outcomes are very positive. This comes at enormous cost.

Housing is the same - people are living longer so the housing stock isn't being released to the market. Worldwide we see trends of people moving to cities which puts pressure on the housing markets in these cities. We also attract lots of overseas workers who come here to work in multinationals and in jobs that Irish people don't want to do.

No simple solutions here, dude. Big complex issues with lots of the devil in the detail. No money trees exist.

Say it ain't so Krusty

Snow Garden

Bannasidhe wrote: »

The SME's are saying they are in trouble. Many retail, hospitality etc won't survive without grant aid is their fear. That sector needs a dig out.
We are looking at a jump in those who will need social welfare which, as was tacitly acknowledged when the Cv19 payment was increased to €350, is not enough at the basic rate of €203. A situation where people lose their jobs due to CV19 related closures who then see their support reduced to less than €200 if SW was cut would be both a disaster in PR terms and the death knell for many SME's as the amount of disposable income in circulation is drastically reduced. SW payments are generally spend locally.

I am very much beginning to think Universal Basic Income is the way to go. It would provide income supports to SME's reducing the need for grand aid, allow the unemployed to look at pt/job share work, end the cumbersome and expensive administration costs of the Dept of SP.

On Capital Investment - funding of that under FG has been to see the Magic Money Tree in action. The cost increases are never ending and the projects never finished.

To clarify - absolutely we need capital investment but not without the tender process being overhauled, a stop put to ever increasing costs, and the whole construction process streamlined so a few years not several years.

You are making the most sense on this forum by a country mile. Great posting.

Geuze

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

A decision was made during the last crash to maintain the majority of social welfare payments instead of investing in capital projects. I'd agree that was the wrong thing to do in the circumstances, but I'd be Kenysian enough in my thinking.

All social welfare rates (excl. pensions) were cut twice during the Great Financial Crisis 2009-2012.

James Brown

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

We had our first budget surplus in over 12 years only last year. That brings down the cost of borrowing, and allows us to do nice things with the money. A decision was made during the last crash to maintain the majority of social welfare payments instead of investing in capital projects. I'd agree that was the wrong thing to do in the circumstances, but I'd be Kenysian enough in my thinking.

Issues around housing and the delivery of healthcare are issues that are impacting almost every mature social democracy in the world. People are living longer due to excellent healthcare, and if they do get sick then outcomes are very positive. This comes at enormous cost.

Housing is the same - people are living longer so the housing stock isn't being released to the market. Worldwide we see trends of people moving to cities which puts pressure on the housing markets in these cities. We also attract lots of overseas workers who come here to work in multinationals and in jobs that Irish people don't want to do.

No simple solutions here, dude. Big complex issues with lots of the devil in the detail. No money trees exist.

Matt, all I hear is some of the reasons we have a problem.
You neglected to mention spending money on 25 year leases and PPP's for build to privately rent housing. In fact you've not addressed government housing policy overseeing making matters worse. Dawg.

I hope FF change this.

Bishop of hope

Bowie wrote: »

Matt, all I hear is some of the reasons we have a problem.
You neglected to mention spending money on 25 year leases and PPP's for build to privately rent housing. In fact you've not addressed government housing policy overseeing making matters worse. Dawg.

I hope FF change this.

Whose Matt?
Are you talking to yourself there?

Truthvader

Bowie wrote: »

Matt, all I hear is some of the reasons we have a problem.
You neglected to mention spending money on 25 year leases and PPP's for build to privately rent housing. In fact you've not addressed government housing policy overseeing making matters worse. Dawg.

I hope FF change this.

Are we really back to this nonsense again? The big fantasy international conspiracy of bankers and freemasons . And de English no doubt; to make sure the Irish never build any more houses forever

MrMusician18

Bannasidhe wrote: »

The SME's are saying they are in trouble. Many retail, hospitality etc won't survive without grant aid is their fear. That sector needs a dig out.
We are looking at a jump in those who will need social welfare which, as was tacitly acknowledged when the Cv19 payment was increased to €350, is not enough at the basic rate of €203. A situation where people lose their jobs due to CV19 related closures who then see their support reduced to less than €200 if SW was cut would be both a disaster in PR terms and the death knell for many SME's as the amount of disposable income in circulation is drastically reduced. SW payments are generally spend locally.

I am very much beginning to think Universal Basic Income is the way to go. It would provide income supports to SME's reducing the need for grand aid, allow the unemployed to look at pt/job share work, end the cumbersome and expensive administration costs of the Dept of SP.

On Capital Investment - funding of that under FG has been to see the Magic Money Tree in action. The cost increases are never ending and the projects never finished.

To clarify - absolutely we need capital investment but not without the tender process being overhauled, a stop put to ever increasing costs, and the whole construction process streamlined so a few years not several years.

I'm going to enjoy you telling us how the government can make concrete set faster.

Or maybe it's regulations. Which one of those would to like to see cut? Health and Safety? Minimum accommodation standards? Planning appeals and process? Guillotined tendering which ensures unfair competition and higher prices?

I'm absolutely sick of people spouting the kind of solutions that literally amount to wishful thinking. If a long standing problem exists with a process it's usually because the competing interests make it difficult to solve. In construction, faster builds mean lower standards and/or higher costs.

James Brown

Truthvader wrote: »

Are we really back to this nonsense again? The big fantasy international conspiracy of bankers and freemasons . And de English no doubt; to make sure the Irish never build any more houses forever

Commenting on the fact that the FG government preferred 25 year leases and PPP's built to rent. Unless you have other information?

Bannasidhe

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I'm going to enjoy you telling us how the government can make concrete set faster.

Or maybe it's regulations. Which one of those would to like to see cut? Health and Safety? Minimum accommodation standards? Planning appeals and process? Guillotined tendering which ensures unfair competition and higher prices?

I'm absolutely sick of people spouting the kind of solutions that literally amount to wishful thinking. If a long standing problem exists with a process it's usually because the competing interests make it difficult to solve. In construction, faster builds mean lower standards and/or higher costs.

It has nothing to do with the rate at which concrete sets.

The Dunkettle Interchange in Cork is a prime example.
Went out to tender - work due to begin in 2018. It still hasn't started. It is already running a year behind schedule.

Sisk won the two-stage contract for the upgrade in 2018 but the project was delayed last August when it emerged that TII and Sisk had failed to reach agreement on forecasted costs for the main construction element.

Complex ground conditions across the vast construction site were blamed for an increased cost estimate.

Reports at the time suggested the overall costs could now range from anywhere between €115m to up to €170m.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/dunkettle-interchange-upgrade-due-to-begin-in-autumn-1004451.html

The cost of the new children's hospital is now running at nearly €500m above the estimated costs approved by govt 3 years ago.
It is still unclear who will actually own it - but either way we are paying for it.

Both project already approved. Both continually delayed. MM was asking about the hospital back in Jan. Costs of both spiraling.

MrMusician18

Bannasidhe wrote: »

It has nothing to do with the rate at which concrete sets.

The Dunkettle Interchange in Cork is a prime example.
Went out to tender - work due to begin in 2018. It still hasn't started. It is already running a year behind schedule.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/dunkettle-interchange-upgrade-due-to-begin-in-autumn-1004451.html

The cost of the new children's hospital is now running at nearly €500m above the estimated costs approved by govt 3 years ago.
It is still unclear who will actually own it - but either way we are paying for it.

Both project already approved. Both continually delayed. MM was asking about the hospital back in Jan. Costs of both spiraling.

In the case of Dunkettle, do you care to think why it might be delayed? Delaying is usually in no one's interest, so they are usually for a very good reason. The main project didn't go to tender in 2018, it went last year and tenders were returned in April. The tender assessment is due to be complete by September and the main construction works start shortly after.

Public procurement is slow because it has to be fair and be seen to be fair. Yes, it's it was a private developer building this it or something similarly complex would be done by now, but they don't have to worry about getting the best value for the public purse.

Water John

Bannasidhe wrote: »

It has nothing to do with the rate at which concrete sets.

The Dunkettle Interchange in Cork is a prime example.
Went out to tender - work due to begin in 2018. It still hasn't started. It is already running a year behind schedule.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/dunkettle-interchange-upgrade-due-to-begin-in-autumn-1004451.html

The cost of the new children's hospital is now running at nearly €500m above the estimated costs approved by govt 3 years ago.
It is still unclear who will actually own it - but either way we are paying for it.

Both project already approved. Both continually delayed. MM was asking about the hospital back in Jan. Costs of both spiraling.

We threw €550M into the ground with water meters.

JohnnyFlash

Water John wrote: »

We threw €550M into the ground with water meters.

Which will come in handy when we start to charge for water usage, as we should with any utility offering that costs money to produce and supply.

LawBoy2018

Anyone watching tonight VMTV? Aodhán Ó Ríordáin coming across very badly imo.

Bishop of hope

Them é voting machines will come in handy when we start voting electronically too.
The water meters will need replacing before we are charging for water too.

Water John

A brave/foolhardy politician that will revisit the water charges issue.

mgn

Water John wrote: »

We threw €550M into the ground with water meters.

It doesn't seem like much now when you have the Greens going spending a million a day on cycle lanes for the duration of this government.

blanch152

Bannasidhe wrote: »

Really?
This was Sat 13th June and it certainly does not say that most schools are well advanced. The theme seems to be schools aren't sure what the hell is happening and teachers are not happy.


https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/teachers-alarmed-at-plan-to-reopen-schools-without-social-distancing-1.4277915

They are discussing children not attending everyday - what exactly do working parents do on the day children are not in school? Where is the plan for that?
https://www.thejournal.ie/schools-reopening-ireland-social-distancing-5121318-Jun2020/

The latest plan I read (12th June) was partial attendance.
Will there be a situation in late August where a family with a boy and girl each is a single sex primary school and an older child who has just begun secondary are faced with the primary school children attending 2.5 days a week but not the same 2.5 days (supposing 1 metre rule - it's 2 days if 2 metres remains), the secondary school is 50% - is that all morning? Afternoons? 2.5 days? It could end up with at least one child off school every day- how are working parent's meant to co-ordinate this? How are schools?

If it was September 1st tomorrow, kids would be going five days a week.

Obviously, numbers will play a part, but that’s the way it will be so long as we don’t increase the numbers. Of course there are still questions, but talking to a number of principals, preparations are advanced.